My Blueprint for the Defense

[mayoclinic]

With Devin McCourty reportedly coming to terms on a 5 year / $47.5M deal, a big piece of the puzzle falls into place.

Rob0729 posted a link to this article by former NFL DB Matt Bowen on why McCourty is so valuable:

Every team in the NFL wants to play physical man coverage. Jam the receivers, impact the release and funnel the routes inside. Go ahead and attack the wideouts at the snap, slide the feet and then drive to the hip to squeeze these guys to your help in the middle of the field.

That’s how you dictate the flow of the game from a defensive perspective.

However, to play true man coverage in this league, you need a legit free safety—an angel over the top—who can close the seam and the post because of his range, instincts and transition speed to break on the ball.

That’s why Devin McCourty is going to get paid big money on Tuesday when he hits the open market at the start of free agency.

These guys are hard to find. I’m talking about the top-tier free safeties who allow NFL teams to consistently play single-high schemes while shutting down the middle of the field.

McCourty might not have the same skill set as Earl Thomas. He's a rare talent. The Seahawks free safety is a top-five player on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL. But in terms of overall value to a defensive system, yeah, it’s pretty close in my opinion when comparing Thomas and McCourty.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2388200-devin-mccourty-is-the-jewel-of-2015-nfl-free-agency

It's a detailed read, and very good.

Now get Darrelle Revis locked up, and the Pats will have all the key pieces to play the same kind of aggressive and complex defensive schemes that they played in 2014. Hopefully in a day or two there won't be any need to speculate about needing to drastically change the defensive approach.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Bowen tweeted a 2015 cap hit of 5.1 for McCourty. Revis extension should save us 12-13m too. That would get us 2-3m under without any restructures. We don't have room for any luxuries. But, can fill a need like a 3rd down.

 

[Luxusdk]

Problem right now is the injury to Mayo, cant really do much aslong he has it. I think him and/or Amendola are gone at latest on draft day. I know Hightower is gone the first month, but even without him Patriots should be able to be 2-2. Then we know how it goes the rest of the way

 

[mayoclinic]

Reports that the Pats could be in the mix for Jabaal Sheard:

OLB Jabaal Sheard is going to be a steal for one of these teams: #Bucs, #Bengals, #Seahawks, and #Pats all in the running.

https://twitter.com/Rand_Getlin/status/574920857795100672

The Lombardi connection could be very helpful with this. He would be a great addition.

If I had my druthers right now I'd probably take Sheard + Ayers over Jerod Mayo. Sheard and Ayers would give them so much versatility and depth in both base and sub. The "interchangeable" defense would be ridiculous.

 

[Luxusdk]

Giveing up on Michael Buchanan? Getting both seems rich.

 

[mayoclinic]

Giveing up on Michael Buchanan? Getting both seems rich.

I don't expect the Pats to get both, but if they somehow could, I'd be all for it. The flexibility with the front 7 would be ridiculous. You'd have 6 guys who could be moved around on the edges or at LB (Jones, Ninkovich, Sheard, Hightower, Colins, Ayers). The things you could do with that group would be ridiculous.

 

[mayoclinic]

Thinking about this some more, the Pats are about $9M over the cap after the McCourty re-signing, but could be $30M+ under:

- Decline Revis' Option -> $20M cap savings -> $11M under
- Convert $7M of Brady's salary into signing bonus -> $5M cap savings per Miguel -> $16M under
- Cut Danny Amendola with a post-June 1 designation -> $4.5M cap savings per Miguel -> $20.5M under
- Restructure Jerod Mayo -> $4M cap savings per Miguel -> $24.5M under
- Trade (or cut) Alfonzo Dennard -> $1M cap savings -> $25.5M under
- Cut Michael Hoomanawanui -> $1.2M cap savings -> $26.7M under
- Restructure/extend Sebastian Vollmer, Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington -> $3M cap savings -> $29.7M under
- Sign Gostkowski to a long term deal with a 2015 cap hit of around $3M -> $1.5M savings -> $31.2M under
- Sign Nate Solder to a long term deal with a 2015 cap hit of around $6M -> $1.8M savings => $33M under

That would leave the Pats with the following defensive players under contract:

DT: Sealver Siliga Dominique Easley, Chris Jones, Joe Vellano
DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Michael Buchanan, Zach Moore
LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Darius Fleming, James Morris
S: Devin McCourty, Pat Chung, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner
CB: Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington, Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan

With that as a base, I would think about some of the following for the defense:

1. CB. Bring back Revis on a long term deal, obviously. Say 4 years / $60M with $45M guaranteed and $20M signing bonus, for a $2015 cap hit of $10M. That leaves about $23M. Then add a late day 2/early day 3 rookie. Byron Jones will likely be long gone, but Eric Rowe, Josh Shaw, Ronald Darby, Jacoby Glenn and others are potential candidates. Another big CB who can play press-man would be welcome depth.

2. DT. Bringing back Wilfork at lower cost is an option (Devin McCourty is apparently pushing for it), as is re-signing Alan Branch. I'd kick the tires on some outside FAs. Dan Williams is likely too price, but for around $4-5M in 2015 cap hit the Pats should be able to get Ahytba Rubin + Kenrick Ellis. I'd explore the options, and consider getting younger with the big DTs. That leaves about $19-20M.

3. EDGE. I'd like to bring back Akeem Ayers if he doesn't break the bank, but there are a lot of EDGE players in free agency. Jerry Hughes and Pernell McPhee got big deals already, and Brian Orapko and Jason Woriilds will probably cash in as well. But Brooks Reed or Jabaal Sheard could be great options. I love the Ayers + Sheard idea, if the 2015 cap hit can be kept under $6M. That leaves about $13-14M.

4. LB. There's lots of depth with Mayo, Hightower, Collins plus Ayers, Sheard and Ninkovich. Re-signing Jonathan Casillas if it can be done cheaply would be worth doing, and or adding a day 3 guy like Ben Heeney.

That would leave around $12-13M to address the offense (#3 WR, LG, TE depth and 3rd down RB) plus deal with the rookie pool, PS and contingency funds. I think it's workable. More likely only one of Ayers+Sheard comes back, and there is around $15-16M available for these areas.

If the Pats can do this in FA, then in the draft I wouldn't address EDGE at all if both Ayers and Sheard were added, and I would add a day 3 option like Valles if only one was added. I'd consider a day 3 off-LOS LB like Ben Heeney. I'd add a late day 2 / early day 3 CB as discussed above. And I'd add a versatile DT/DE like Marcus Hardison.

That would give the Pats something like this:

Big DTs(3): Sealver Siliga plus some combination of Vince Wilfork, Alan Branch, Ahtyba Rubin and Kenrick Ellis (and Dan Williams as a long shot).
DT/DEs (3): Dominique Easley, Marcus Hardison and Chris Jones.
EDGE (9): Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard, Akeem Ayers (or one of Sheard/Ayers + a rookie), , Michael Buchanan, Zach Moore, Darius Fleming
Off-LOS LB (3-4): Jerod Mayo, Jonathan Casillas, James Morris, possibly a rookie
S (5): Devin McCourty, Pat Chung, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner
CB (6): Darelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington, Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, rookie

The secondary would be pretty much set. There would be 18-19 front 7 players vying for 14-15 spots, but that's ok with me. Overall, I think the defense could be better than 2014, with Mayo back, Easley, Collins still improving, some young DTs, Sheard and the rookies.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Everything on hold until we hear from CB24.

 

[ATippett56]

The New England Patriots have $9,556,603 in cap space (Top 51 Rule) after the New England Patriots declined the $20 million option associated with the Revis contract.

http://www.patscap.com/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/

At least the New England Patriots defense should be set at the safety position with all five players returning for the 2015 NFL Season:

Chung
Wilson
McCourty
Harmon
Ebner

One less position to worry about with regards to the 2015 NFL Draft. That leaves DE, DT, LB as potential draft considerations.

 

[mayoclinic]

Everything on hold until we hear from CB24.

And see how the Browner situation plays out. That one mystifies me. If Browner is unhappy with his deal because of how much guys like Maxwell and Flowers are getting, then I could see the Pats letting him put out feelers. But it would make no sense at all to me to dump Browner for cap space. He is far too important to the defense, in terms of his matchup capability and in terms of the physical dimension that he brings. I will be distraught if he isn't a Patriot this year.

 

[mayoclinic]

And see how the Browner situation plays out. That one mystifies me. If Browner is unhappy with his deal because of how much guys like Maxwell and Flowers are getting, then I could see the Pats letting him put out feelers. But it would make no sense at all to me to dump Browner for cap space. He is far too important to the defense, in terms of his matchup capability and in terms of the physical dimension that he brings. I will be distraught if he isn't a Patriot this year.

From SeanBruschi54 in another thread:

If im understanding what Howe and Holley said on the radio its that Browner is probably going to get an extension and not be allowed a trade. They dont want him to come to camp unhappy so they offer him a new deal with guranteed money to lessen his hit this year and have a happy Browner who might have felt slighted with all the big money deals being thrown around to corners so far.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/with-under-24-hours-to-go.1117757/ (post #11)

This makes a lot of sense to me. I mentioned extending Browner and lowering his cap hit in my "Backdraft" blueprint over 2 months ago:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...s-of-a-motley-masochistic-mastermind.1114686/

 

[patsfaninpa]

I wouldn't go so far as saying I'd be distraught if we lost Browner. There are other ways to improve your defense with money saved. If we sign Revis but lose Browner. Maybe we can improve the pass rush with that money which will help the secondary.

 

[mayoclinic]

I wouldn't go so far as saying I'd be distraught if we lost Browner. There are other ways to improve your defense with money saved. If we sign Revis but lose Browner. Maybe we can improve the pass rush with that money which will help the secondary.

As Matt Bowen when he called Devin McCourty the "jewel" of free agency:

Every team in the NFL wants to play physical man coverage. Jam the receivers, impact the release and funnel the routes inside. Go ahead and attack the wideouts at the snap, slide the feet and then drive to the hip to squeeze these guys to your help in the middle of the field.

That’s how you dictate the flow of the game from a defensive perspective.

That goes back to what Greg Cosell called "disruption at the perimeter" 2 years ago (see post #33). And thats just where Browner excels. The Butler interception was the perfect illustration of it. Take that away, and the defense changes drastically.

In addition, Browner brings an attitude and physicality that the defense hasn't had since Rodney.

I will be distraught if he leaves. I don't expect it to happen, fortunately.

 

[mayoclinic]

As Matt Bowen when he called Devin McCourty the "jewel" of free agency:


That goes back to what Greg Cosell called "disruption at the perimeter" 2 years ago (see post #33). And thats just where Browner excels. The Butler interception was the perfect illustration of it. Take that away, and the defense changes drastically.

In addition, Browner brings an attitude and physicality that the defense hasn't had since Rodney.

I will be distraught if he leaves. I don't expect it to happen, fortunately.

My blueprint right now involves jumping off the Tobin, but I'll wait a bit before executing it.

 

[mayoclinic]

Well, Revis is a Jet again. That sucks.

As Mike Loyko notes, echoing a discussion we had last week:

There is absolutely no way to replace Revis on the backend. Have to spend the money on the front 7 and change coverage scheme.

https://twitter.com/NEPD_Loyko/status/575460384502509568

Browner is a FA, and presumably the Pats will switch to a zone-based scheme.

I felt like the 2014 defense basically was what the OP identified. And it got us to our 4th ring. Sadly, that defense is pretty much gone. Back to the drawing board.

 

[ATippett56]

The New England Patriots have $9,556,603 in cap space (Top 51 Rule) after the New England Patriots declined the $20 million option associated with the Revis contract.

http://www.patscap.com/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/

At least the New England Patriots defense should be set at the safety position with all five players returning for the 2015 NFL Season:

Chung
Wilson
McCourty
Harmon
Ebner

One less position to worry about with regards to the 2015 NFL Draft. That leaves DE, DT, LB as potential draft considerations.

Oops!

Forgot to add CB to the draft considerations list.

 

[unoriginal]

My blueprint right now involves jumping off the Tobin, but I'll wait a bit before executing it.

Remember to jump out, not up, and to flatten out and lean forward during the fall. You can get pretty good distance with the right technique.

 

[BobDigital]

My blue print for the Defense is to be up by more than 1 score in every playoff game at the end.

And no that is not a joke cause it will not be good enough to turn away the opponent's O on that last critical drive. I don't see a way to get it that good. Not unless you draft an all star,

 

[unoriginal]

I felt like the 2014 defense basically was what the OP identified. And it got us to our 4th ring. Sadly, that defense is pretty much gone. Back to the drawing board.

It was a 6th CB away from performing identically to the 2007 and 2011 defenses on the final drive.

Actually worse, because that would have meant 30+ points allowed, vs. 17 and 21.

It's not like our defense this year was some juggernaut. Here's to a healthy Mayo, Easley, and Dont'a Hightower as a rush end.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Did CB just become our #1 need in the draft??