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My AFC playoff projections


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Well said, I'm in complete agreement. Barring a sloppy, turnover-laden game I'm very confident in a Pats win against Denver, even on the road. The next time they play a good team will be the first since their three losses in the beginning of the year...running the table for a long stretch is always impressive in the NFL, but it doesn't exactly say much about this team that they've lost three of their four games against good teams (I'm including NE, Atlanta, Houston and Cincy...Baltimore is an absolute train wreck right now).

Furthermore, I am baffled by some of the posters on here who point to a losing record by Brady and the Patriots over his career vs. the Broncos. To me, only the games played by these two teams comprised of their current personnel merit consideration. And IIRC, the Patriots have won the last three meetings... including one in Denver last year.
 
I personally do not understand why you guys are so confident in playing @ Denver. New England is a great team and I fear New England more than any other team in the NFL. That being said, Yes, Denver is 1-3 vs the elite teams this year but they have not lost in 9 straight games. Losing 24-0 at halftime with a 2-3 record, they came back to beat San Diego 35-0 in the second half and haven't looked back since then. We had the hardest schedule in the NFL over the course of the first 6 weeks and it was Peyton's immediate return to the NFL after surgery with hardly anytime to gel with his receivers and offense. As the season goes on, he gets better and better with his teamates around him and it shows in the play on the field.

Denver is the only team in the NFL that tom brady has a losing record against.
He is 2-5 in the regular season and 1-1 in playoffs vs Denver.
If the game were to go to NE, I think it would be a close New England win.
Since more than likely the game is going to be in DEN, I'm predicting a Denver win.

All of that being said, the game could go either way, wherever it is played, but i do not think you guys should be so confident and quick to write off the Broncos in a playoff scenario, ESPECIALLY @ mile high.

Good luck to you guys the rest of the season and post season, i have the utmost respect for the Patriots organization.
 
I personally do not understand why you guys are so confident in playing @ Denver. New England is a great team and I fear New England more than any other team in the NFL. That being said, Yes, Denver is 1-3 vs the elite teams this year but they have not lost in 9 straight games. Losing 24-0 at halftime with a 2-3 record, they came back to beat San Diego 35-0 in the second half and haven't looked back since then. We had the hardest schedule in the NFL over the course of the first 6 weeks and it was Peyton's immediate return to the NFL after surgery with hardly anytime to gel with his receivers and offense. As the season goes on, he gets better and better with his teamates around him and it shows in the play on the field.

Denver is the only team in the NFL that tom brady has a losing record against.
He is 2-5 in the regular season and 1-1 in playoffs vs Denver.
If the game were to go to NE, I think it would be a close New England win.
Since more than likely the game is going to be in DEN, I'm predicting a Denver win.

All of that being said, the game could go either way, wherever it is played, but i do not think you guys should be so confident and quick to write off the Broncos in a playoff scenario, ESPECIALLY @ mile high.

Good luck to you guys the rest of the season and post season, i have the utmost respect for the Patriots organization.

Probably because Gronk will be back and its Manning in the playoffs and that scares no one.
 
I personally do not understand why you guys are so confident in playing @ Denver. New England is a great team and I fear New England more than any other team in the NFL.

I said it in another thread but the Broncos do scare me in Denver just from the standpoint that it's such a tough place to play and no matter the circumstances it's nearly always been a house of horrors for the Patriots. Your defense is certainly looking strong and Manning is always a concern. Conversely the Broncos are a bit over-hyped right now. Their strength of schedule is bad and strength of victory worse. Manning still hasn't played a bad weather or frigid game this year. Jack Del Rio defenses haven't fared well against Brady. I don't think I'd call the Ravens elite right now. You caught the Ravens at the right time and the Pats at the wrong time.

So all in all I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic about going to Denver but I certainly wouldn't put it in the lock category.

Nice first post and welcome to the board.
 
My formula often works to predict Super Bowl participants:

1. Do they have a quarterback capable of winning a SB?
2. Are they being ignored in most national power polls?

For this reason I like the Packers and Texans right now.

The Packers are humming along at 10-4 but aren't the flavor of the week. The Falcons are a close second- they aren't a wrecking ball, but they're 12-2 and are written off by everyone.

In the AFC, I'd say last night's game was more advantageous for Houston than anyone. Houston pasted the Broncos earlier this year in Denver- who cares if they lost to the Patriots- the Patriots aren't the Broncos, who appear just as likely to come in to Houston for the AFCCG. Houston will get a cake matchup in the divisional round, and they'll have to beat either Brady or Manning. They can do it... if the Pats loss to the Niners was a "learning experience," the Texans learned a bigger lesson last week.

The Texans aren't even mentioned among pundits anymore when discussing the AFC contenders. They only talk about Broncos and Pats. Well, Brady and Manning have lost a combined 17 playoff games, so let's stop acting like they're invincible.


This prediction will likely change in two weeks, unless the Packers and Texans can stay out of the national radar.
 
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I see alot of us are looking forward to the second round Third Seed would play Pittsburgh...i think they win their next two and get in. I would not want to play them in Round 1. Physical Defense who can soften you up no thanks...i would rather the Colts. I hope the Ravens win out and the Pats drop one. Mallett plays last game if the seedings stay the way they are. Call me crazy but i think Pittsburgh could be a deadly 6th seed.
 
I see alot of us are looking forward to the second round Third Seed would play Pittsburgh...i think they win their next two and get in. I would not want to play them in Round 1. Physical Defense who can soften you up no thanks...i would rather the Colts. I hope the Ravens win out and the Pats drop one. Mallett plays last game if the seedings stay the way they are. Call me crazy but i think Pittsburgh could be a deadly 6th seed.

Too much can change. Maybe Roethlisberger gets injured again (and by the way, I think he is badly injured now), maybe Andrew Luck starts throwing for 7 TDs a game and you don't want to face the hottest team in the NFL. It never plays out the way we think it will.

I'm sure fans in the NFC were glad to play the Giants last year and Packers the year before that, or the Cardinals in 2008, when in fact they were about to face teams that were hot at the right time.

Also, it is just a matter of opinion. No one really knows who the better opponent is because you don't play them both simultaneously. I could easily see the argument that the Steelers are preferable to the Colts, since we know the Steelers well and have usually succeeded against them, while the Colts will be "playing with the house's money" and will return Pagano for an emotional playoff run. With every team there are strengths and weaknesses, especially when they are good enough to make the playoffs.
 
I personally do not understand why you guys are so confident in playing @ Denver. New England is a great team and I fear New England more than any other team in the NFL. That being said, Yes, Denver is 1-3 vs the elite teams this year but they have not lost in 9 straight games. Losing 24-0 at halftime with a 2-3 record, they came back to beat San Diego 35-0 in the second half and haven't looked back since then. We had the hardest schedule in the NFL over the course of the first 6 weeks and it was Peyton's immediate return to the NFL after surgery with hardly anytime to gel with his receivers and offense. As the season goes on, he gets better and better with his teamates around him and it shows in the play on the field.

Denver is the only team in the NFL that tom brady has a losing record against.
He is 2-5 in the regular season and 1-1 in playoffs vs Denver.
If the game were to go to NE, I think it would be a close New England win.
Since more than likely the game is going to be in DEN, I'm predicting a Denver win.

All of that being said, the game could go either way, wherever it is played, but i do not think you guys should be so confident and quick to write off the Broncos in a playoff scenario, ESPECIALLY @ mile high.

Good luck to you guys the rest of the season and post season, i have the utmost respect for the Patriots organization.

It will be interesting to see if Denver's defense has really improved or drawn a long string of favorable matchups. The Pats have a way of using matchups to dominate some defenses over and over again, such as Pittsburgh, who would otherwise look like they matchup based on stats (yards allowed, etc.) To me, this will be the key to that game.

I am not that confident that Pats would win in Denver, but way too early to speculate. Still time for significant injuries, wrinkles, etc for either team.

The only reason I'm not confident in a Pats win is, if you look at the Brady-Manning rivalry over the years, the home team almost always wins.
 
I see alot of us are looking forward to the second round Third Seed would play Pittsburgh...i think they win their next two and get in. I would not want to play them in Round 1. Physical Defense who can soften you up no thanks...i would rather the Colts. I hope the Ravens win out and the Pats drop one. Mallett plays last game if the seedings stay the way they are. Call me crazy but i think Pittsburgh could be a deadly 6th seed.

Why is everyone afraid of pittsbirgh all of a sudden? These guys lost to the chargers and cowboys.
 
It will be interesting to see if Denver's defense has really improved or drawn a long string of favorable matchups. The Pats have a way of using matchups to dominate some defenses over and over again, such as Pittsburgh, who would otherwise look like they matchup based on stats (yards allowed, etc.) To me, this will be the key to that game.

I am not that confident that Pats would win in Denver, but way too early to speculate. Still time for significant injuries, wrinkles, etc for either team.

The only reason I'm not confident in a Pats win is, if you look at the Brady-Manning rivalry over the years, the home team almost always wins.

I'm leaning towards the latter and they will continue to get these until the remainder of the season.
 
I personally do not understand why you guys are so confident in playing @ Denver. New England is a great team and I fear New England more than any other team in the NFL. That being said, Yes, Denver is 1-3 vs the elite teams this year but they have not lost in 9 straight games. Losing 24-0 at halftime with a 2-3 record, they came back to beat San Diego 35-0 in the second half and haven't looked back since then. We had the hardest schedule in the NFL over the course of the first 6 weeks and it was Peyton's immediate return to the NFL after surgery with hardly anytime to gel with his receivers and offense. As the season goes on, he gets better and better with his teamates around him and it shows in the play on the field.

Denver is the only team in the NFL that tom brady has a losing record against.
He is 2-5 in the regular season and 1-1 in playoffs vs Denver.
If the game were to go to NE, I think it would be a close New England win.
Since more than likely the game is going to be in DEN, I'm predicting a Denver win.

All of that being said, the game could go either way, wherever it is played, but i do not think you guys should be so confident and quick to write off the Broncos in a playoff scenario, ESPECIALLY @ mile high.

Good luck to you guys the rest of the season and post season, i have the utmost respect for the Patriots organization.

Are you saying coming back to score 35 points in the second half against a bad Chargers team is proof that the Broncos are better than the Pats and improved greatly.

Your Chargers example is a perfect example of why I am not that afraid of the Broncos. They have a trend this year of bad first halves and great second halves. It has happened in all three of their losses and many of their wins. They can get in a 24-0 deficit against a bad team like the Chargers, but can you do that vs. the Pats or Texans. Based on the results of their win loss record against elite teams (0-3), I say they can't.

As for Brady's record vs. the Broncos, he hasn't lost to them since 2009 (a 20-17 OT loss) and have won by double digits in the last three games.

I am not saying the Pats will go into Denver and win, but I think the Pats match well against the Broncos because their defense can't figure out the Pats' offense and the Broncos' trend of bad first halves could put them in a hole against the Pats that they may never be able to dig themselves out of.
 
I don't understand this fear of Denver. Putting aside the fact that Peyton Manning is a huge play off choker who will be nervous about the possibility of losing ANOTHER game to Tom, the Patriots have, over the course of their last three meetings with Denver, a combined total of about 50 billion points.

I'm not scared of any AFC team.

Our season ends, one way or another, in the Superbowl.

the Denver-phobia goes back for many of us to the 2005 Divisional Playoff game, famous for Champ Bailey's pick of Brady in the end zone as the Pats were driving at the Denver 5 yard line to try to take the lead in the third quarter (Denver led 10--6 at the time). Bailey returned the INT 100 yards to the one yard line where Ben Watson either swatted the ball from behind and out of Bailey's hands into the end zone for a Touchback and Pats possession at the Pats 20 (Pats fans version) or OB for Denver possession at the Pats 1 (how the Officials saw it). In any event, the play resulted in a 14 point swing in 20 seconds, enabling the Broncos to take a 17--6 lead and control of a game that they eventually won 27--13. The game ended the Pats hopes of a "threepeat" and was arguably the end of "Phase One" of the Brady-Belichick era.

Bad post season memories.

Rational? Of course not! But 90% of what we ***** about out here isn't "rational." :)
 
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Someone please explain how would we have no chance against Denver. Manning has looked shaky at times this year and the run game for them especially has looked pedestrian at times. Their one good win was vs. Cincinnati and even then, they still haven't beaten too many .500 and above teams. We don't know how well Manning will play in January as evidenced by his shockingly bad performances in the past.

BTW, Denver's D is Sub-Par and Brady could pick them apart if Gronk is ready to go. I think people are forgetting we were up 31-7 vs them before we took our foot off of the pedal.
 
I'm failing to understand the overconfidence either. Perhaps Pats fans got a little too high on beating the Broncos early on, in one of Manning's early games with the team. Prior to that, Manning had beaten the Patriots 5 out of the past 7, had beaten them the last time they met in the playoffs, and had pretty much done whatever he wanted vs. the Patriot defense over most of the past decade. Manning has owned Belichick for most of the past decade. In addition, the game will likely be in Denver, and you have the Brady's record vs. the Broncos.

I assume it's false bravado, because given the circumstances, you probably should be a bit more worried.
 
I'm failing to understand the overconfidence either.

Because the forehead's overall postseason record leaves a bit to be desired, no? I'm more scared of the little brother at this point.
 
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The overconfidence is a tad bit puzzling.

I hear about the cupcake schedule. Sure, it wasn't too difficult down the road, but it was ranked the #2 hardest schedule behind the Giants. We have won 9 straight and are clicking on all cylinders now.

You destroyed us last year. I'll give you that. Our defense was nowhere near as good last year as it is now, and we also had that God awful QB in Tebow. Last year was embarrassing.

You also beat us this year. However, we were doing what y'all did last night and coming back and strong without you stopping us...until McGahee stopped us by fumbling. He's had way to many of those this year. :(

Our defense is much improved from the last time we played you in week 5 though. They are clicking. The offense is clicking. Our special teams is solid too. It's a different team than it was in week 5.

If we take care of our business the last two games, if we do meet up with y'all it will also be in Denver. Home field advantage is key in the NFL.

Now by no means am I saying this is going to be an easy game for us. I just find it amusing must of you aren't taking us seriously at all because of the last 3 meetings.

It would be a close game, one way or another. But with the home field advantage that we should receive...I like our chances better than I did if we had to play it in New England.


Talk to y'all later, if we do end up playing you guys in the playoffs. Good luck the rest of the way.
 
the Denver-phobia goes back for many of us to the 2005 Divisional Playoff game, famous for Champ Bailey's pick of Brady in the end zone as the Pats were driving at the Denver 5 yard line to try to take the lead in the third quarter (Denver led 10--6 at the time). Bailey returned the INT 100 yards to the one yard line where Ben Watson either swatted the ball from behind and out of Bailey's hands into the end zone for a Touchback and Pats possession at the Pats 20 (Pats fans version) or OB for Denver possession at the Pats 1 (how the Officials saw it). In any event, the play resulted in a 14 point swing in 20 seconds, enabling the Broncos to take a 17--6 lead and control of a game that they eventually won 27--13. The game ended the Pats hopes of a "threepeat" and was arguably the end of "Phase One" of the Brady-Belichick era.

Bad post season memories.

Rational? Of course not! But 90% of what we ***** about out here isn't "rational." :)

Yep, this sums it up, except that you forgot to add the phantom endzone PI penalty just before halftime, which put the Broncos up 10-6. Even the broadcasters called out the refs and said it's a shame if the game's decided on such an atrocious call.

Now for "away against Manning" aspect, which is probably a cause for much more anxiety than the Denver aspect.

-2006 AFCCG, the Patriots @ Colts, and this was before Manning had "won" a SB (with a 70 passer rating, throwing 3 TDs, 7 INTs in the playoff run.)

Manning is his typical choking self, tripping over his feet for the first half, highlighted by a pick-6 by Asante Samuel to put the Pats up 20-3. Pats are completely demolishing the Colts and have the ball just before halftime, driving down the field, until a completely inexplicable Troy Brown offensive pass interference is called. Pats forced to punt, Goober gets the Colts three points.

Second half is a different story. Now, I understand that I sounds like an excuse-making homer here, but consider these circumstances: it is widely known that many players have the flu, and the Pats literally are hit with an insane injury bug in the middle of the game. I believe Harrison is injured, then during the game they lose Bruschi, at least two more starters in the secondary, and Manning is just lofting passes all over the field. Colts come back to tie the game, but Brady puts a horrendous offense on his back (Reche Caldwell year.) Pats are tied with about 3 minutes left, driving to the ten yard line, and Caldwell drops literally the one of the easiest passes in the NFL, stares bug eyed, and the Pats settle for a field goal. Colts come down and win the game.

I forgot to mention, the NFL actually sent the Patriots a letter of apology after that one because they admitted the officials made several critical errors. One of their calls was "face guarding" because, although the defensive back didn't interfere with the receiver, his hand caused the receiver's vision to be blocked. On the other side, of course, Manning got about four questionable PI calls. Those were the days where Polian was on the competition committee, calling for rule changes, while openly hating Belichick.

That and the game in '09 where the Pats defense completely fell apart, leading to the 4th and 2 play. Safe to say, there are bad memories of the Pats playing Manning on the road.
 
I'm failing to understand the overconfidence either. Perhaps Pats fans got a little too high on beating the Broncos early on, in one of Manning's early games with the team. Prior to that, Manning had beaten the Patriots 5 out of the past 7, had beaten them the last time they met in the playoffs, and had pretty much done whatever he wanted vs. the Patriot defense over most of the past decade. Manning has owned Belichick for most of the past decade. In addition, the game will likely be in Denver, and you have the Brady's record vs. the Broncos.

I assume it's false bravado, because given the circumstances, you probably should be a bit more worried.

Manning last beat the Pats in the 2009 season. I don't know how that is relevant to today. Since then, he is 0-2.

Also, Manning is 6-10 vs. Belichick. He had 5 wins from 2005-2009 (one was vs. Cassell). The other four wins were in 2005, 2006 (one in the regular season and one in the AFC Championship Game), and 2009 which are arguably the three of the five worst years of the Belichick era (2000 is the worst followed by 2002). That said, none of this really matters in the playoffs. He is on a different team and most of the players on defense that was on the Pats the last time Manning beat the Pats are either retired or somewhere else.

Also, John Fox is 0-3 vs. the Pats with a combine score of 117-54 as a Broncos' head coach including a loss with Manning as QB.

But you really got us there. Manning has really owned the Pats between 2005-2009. If he faces the Pats in the playoffs, he is totally going to own guys like Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, and Ellis Hobbs.

Again, I think the Broncos are a really good team, but they have yet to show they can compete with the elite teams head to head, they are a Jeckyl and Hyde team from one half to the next, and Brady and the Pats' offense owns the Broncos' defense the last two years. That give me a decent amount of confidence. The Broncos could be the Pats and huge, but I don't fear any team in the AFC as a Pats' fan.
 
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The overconfidence is a tad bit puzzling.

I hear about the cupcake schedule. Sure, it wasn't too difficult down the road, but it was ranked the #2 hardest schedule behind the Giants. We have won 9 straight and are clicking on all cylinders now.

I'm pretty sure the actual opponent's winning % is the real measure of a team's schedule, rather than opponent's winning % LAST YEAR, which what your referring to in your strength of schedule argument. Broncos were projected to have the 2nd hardest strength of schedule. As you can see here, the actual results differ from the preseason projection:

2012 NFL Playoff Standings - National Football League - ESPN

So, while I do like it when people from other fan bases come here, I do not like it when someone is just trying to fool everyone by purposely taking stats out of context, as that is the only way you could have concluded that you really had the second hardest schedule in the NFL.

I agree that that the Broncos are playing well, and I would probably have to pick the Broncos in a close game, being objective. Broncos would have two weeks to prepare for the Pats- although Manning's teams has been the master of "one and done" throughout his career.
 
I'm pretty sure the actual opponent's winning % is the real measure of a team's schedule, rather than opponent's winning % LAST YEAR, which what your referring to in your strength of schedule argument. Broncos were projected to have the 2nd hardest strength of schedule. As you can see here, the actual results differ from the preseason projection:

2012 NFL Playoff Standings - National Football League - ESPN

So, while I do like it when people from other fan bases come here, I do not like it when someone is just trying to fool everyone by purposely taking stats out of context, as that is the only way you could have concluded that you really had the second hardest schedule in the NFL.

I agree that that the Broncos are playing well, and I would probably have to pick the Broncos in a close game, being objective. Broncos would have two weeks to prepare for the Pats- although Manning's teams has been the master of "one and done" throughout his career.

Purposely taking stats out of context?

There is a reason I said WAS and not IS.
 
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