My AFC playoff projections

[Rob0729]

You also beat us this year. However, we were doing what y'all did last night and coming back and strong without you stopping us...until McGahee stopped us by fumbling. He's had way to many of those this year.
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What people seem to forget about that is that even if McGahee didn't fumble, it would be 3rd down and 11 on the Pats three with the Broncos down by 10 with 3:42 left and only two time outs. There is no guarantee the Broncos score on that drive even if he doesn't fumble. Denver only scored 14 points in the second half (one TD in each quarter in the second half). So the likelihood of the Broncos scoring 10 points in a little over 3 and a half minutes isn't that great.

 

[SeaOfOrange58]

What people seem to forget about that is that even if McGahee didn't fumble, it would be 3rd down and 11 on the Pats three with the Broncos down by 10 with 3:42 left and only two time outs. There is no guarantee the Broncos score on that drive even if he doesn't fumble. Denver only scored 14 points in the second half (one TD in each quarter in the second half). So the likelihood of the Broncos scoring 10 points in a little over 3 and a half minutes isn't that great.

You're right. It wasn't a guarantee, not at all. But, as you proved last night, with a great QB, it is definitely possible. I'm not saying we would have come back. I am just saying, we started clicking towards the end and really playing some good football. That is the football we have been playing for the most part since then. You guys are the last team we lost to.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Manning last beat the Pats in the 2009 season. I don't know how that is relevant to today. Since then, he is 0-2.

Also, Manning is 6-10 vs. Belichick. He had 5 wins from 2005-2009 (one was vs. Cassell). The other four wins were in 2005, 2006 (one in the regular season and one in the AFC Championship Game), and 2009 which are arguably the three of the five worst years of the Belichick era (2000 is the worst followed by 2002). That said, none of this really matters in the playoffs. He is on a different team and most of the players on defense that was on the Pats the last time Manning beat the Pats are either retired or somewhere else.

Also, John Fox is 0-3 vs. the Pats with a combine score of 117-54 as a Broncos' head coach including a loss with Manning as QB.

But you really got us there. Manning has really owned the Pats between 2005-2009. If he faces the Pats in the playoffs, he is totally going to own guys like Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, and Ellis Hobbs.

Again, I think the Broncos are a really good team, but they have yet to show they can compete with the elite teams head to head, they are a Jeckyl and Hyde team from one half to the next, and Brady and the Pats' offense owns the Broncos' defense the last two years. That give me a decent amount of confidence. The Broncos could be the Pats and huge, but I don't fear any team in the AFC as a Pats' fan.

Home Wins
Pats '03
Past '03 (playoffs)
Pats '04
Pats '04 (playoffs)
Colts '06
Colts '08 (Cassel)
Colts '09
Pats '10
Pats '11

Away Wins
Colts '05
Colts '06
Pats '07

I guess I'm not as confident as most Pats fans about the prospect of playing Manning on the road, considering the home team is 9-3 in this rivalry since 2003, and the Pats are 1-3 against Manning away from Foxborough, with none of Manning's teams having a stout defense like the Broncos. One major thing, though, is Brady has always been way, way better than Manning in cold weather, to the point where it can't just be a small sample size, and it's been very obvious.

Manning has played the Patriots just 4 times at home and 9 times on the road. I don't think the Patriots "ownage" of Manning is all it's cracked up to be. Most games between two amazing QBs come down to the final two minutes, and the home team has the advantage.

 

[SVN]

The biggest thing which scares me about denver is manning regardless of his postseason record. He is the only QB who can match ours and @home with defense which can rush the passer, he is the most difficult matchup for us.

Regarding pittsburgh..yes they lost to SD and Dallas but they are a very mentally tough team and have familiarity with the pats and their D is also very good so ,yes, thats the least favorite matchup of mine in the wildcard which looks destined to happen unless BB decides to 'rest' his starters in week 17 just in 2006 when he decided jax at home was better than pitt at home.

 

[Rob0729]

You're right. It wasn't a guarantee, not at all. But, as you proved last night, with a great QB, it is definitely possible. I'm not saying we would have come back. I am just saying, we started clicking towards the end and really playing some good football. That is the football we have been playing for the most part since then. You guys are the last team we lost to.

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda. The Pats could have won last night if the 49ers didn't prove to be the better team last night in the end. So other than that, the Pats probably would have won.

Sorry, the Pats were the better team that day. They got too conservative and let the Broncos and then stepped up and made a strip on the ball (which they have been doing all year) when they needed it. McGahee was stripped. He just didn't run into someone and drop the ball. It was ripped out of his hand.

 

[SeaOfOrange58]

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda. The Pats could have won last night if the 49ers didn't prove to be the better team last night in the end. So other than that, the Pats probably would have won.

Sorry, the Pats were the better team that day. They got too conservative and let the Broncos and then stepped up and made a strip on the ball (which they have been doing all year) when they needed it. McGahee was stripped. He just didn't run into someone and drop the ball. It was ripped out of his hand.

You can try to pick fights and be a jerk to me all you'd like. I really don't care.

You won. I'm not debating that. You should have won and you did. You are missing the entire point. But, that's fine.

 

[Rob0729]

Home Wins
Pats '03
Past '03 (playoffs)
Pats '04
Pats '04 (playoffs)
Colts '06
Colts '08 (Cassel)
Colts '09
Pats '10
Pats '11

Away Wins
Colts '05
Colts '06
Pats '07

I guess I'm not as confident as most Pats fans about the prospect of playing Manning on the road, considering the home team is 9-3 in this rivalry since 2003, and the Pats are 1-3 against Manning away from Foxborough, with none of Manning's teams having a stout defense like the Broncos. One major thing, though, is Brady has always been way, way better than Manning in cold weather, to the point where it can't just be a small sample size, and it's been very obvious.

Manning has played the Patriots just 4 times at home and 9 times on the road. I don't think the Patriots "ownage" of Manning is all it's cracked up to be. Most games between two amazing QBs come down to the final two minutes, and the home team has the advantage.

I don't know if this means much unless Elway turns up the heat to 100 degrees and pumps in crowd noise into Mile High like Polian used to do in Indy.

 

[SVN]

Iam surprised a lot of people are taking denver easily that too on the road and that too with a HOF QB. Not very many teams have such QBs. I think we are talented enough to compete and win but denver is no pushover like a lot of people seem to assume, at least in my opinion.

 

[Rob0729]

You can try to pick fights and be a jerk to me all you'd like. I really don't care.

You won. I'm not debating that. You should have won and you did. You are missing the entire point. But, that's fine.

I am really not trying to pick a fight. Sorry if it came off that way.

I just hate the argument that if so and so didn't fumble the ball, we would have won instead of losing by two scores argument.

Yes, you were coming back, but the Pats were protecting a big lead going into the fourth. They never got closer than two scores.

Yes, the Pats had a similar situation, but they tied the game up before they fell apart and the 49ers stepped up to win the game. I see that as a different situation. Either way, I am proud of the Pats for fighting back, but I am under no illusion that they should have won the game if it wasn't for one or two mistakes.

Again, the weakness of the Broncos this year is that they dig these deep holes for themselves in the first half and have dig out of them in the second. Against bad teams, they can do it rather easily. They have failed against the elite teams they have faced.

 

[SeaOfOrange58]

I am really not trying to pick a fight. Sorry if it came off that way.

I just hate the argument that if so and so didn't fumble the ball, we would have won instead of losing by two scores argument.

Yes, you were coming back, but the Pats were protecting a big lead going into the fourth. They never got closer than two scores.

Yes, the Pats had a similar situation, but they tied the game up before they fell apart and the 49ers stepped up to win the game. I see that as a different situation. Either way, I am proud of the Pats for fighting back, but I am under no illusion that they should have won the game if it wasn't for one or two mistakes.

Again, the weakness of the Broncos this year is that they dig these deep holes for themselves in the first half and have dig out of them in the second. Against bad teams, they can do it rather easily. They have failed against the elite teams they have faced.

Gotcha.

We did that earlier in the year, I can't deny that. We have been getting off to a better start of late though. We didn't score on our opening drive yesterday, but we did on our 2nd drive. The two weeks before that we scored on our opening drive.

Sure, they weren't elite teams, but even earlier when they weren't elite teams, we didn't score early and waited until halftime to make adjustments and then really turned on the burners.

I guess we'll see in these last two weeks if we can really start fast again. I hope so, we need to be able to against high powered teams like yours.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Iam surprised a lot of people are taking denver easily that too on the road and that too with a HOF QB. Not very many teams have such QBs. I think we are talented enough to compete and win but denver is no pushover like a lot of people seem to assume, at least in my opinion.

especially at home..which is why last nights game was HUGE...if we go on and lose in denver..some could point to last night as the turning point..but we will never know

worst case scenario happened yesterday and it sucks

 

[SVN]

especially at home..which is why last nights game was HUGE...if we go on and lose in denver..some could point to last night as the turning point..but we will never know

worst case scenario happened yesterday and it sucks

Well turning pts were losing to ARI and Seattle as well, any game could make the diff. At the same time we couldve lost the jets OT game also. Just unfortunate for the pats how the chips fell in the end and they picked the worst possible game to lose.

 

[blackglass3]

I'd say we'll be playing in Denver on the 12th of January at 8pm EST. And I HATE when they play in Denver, there are just too many bad memories there. Brady's awful 01 game, that game in 03 when they needed the safety vs Danny Freakin Weurfel (I don't remember how to spell it), the 05 playoff game, the 09 game where they choked away that lead. Even last year's game there, going down 17 so quickly is a bad thing. There is something about that place, it's unsettling to the entire team. The only thing we'd have going for us is John Fox and Jack Del Rio have never been able to slow down the Patriots offense for very long. And if it's a nasty night it might effect Peyton's throws or his head, he's used to getting into a nice warm dome this time of year.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves and overlook Wild Card weekend. I PRAY the Jets somehow get in because I would love to watch us slap them around again. Could we beat the Steelers? Probably, but I don't love the idea of playing them with their cheap shotting D and the impossible to bring down Ben. Could we beat the Bengals? I have nightmares of what AJ Green could do to this defense, and BJGE would be able to help build the offensive plan with his knowledge of the team.

 

[PatriotSeven]

I could be wrong with his numbers but isnt Brady 2-4 in Denver lifetime and 3-6 vs them?

Its still a statistic that plays in your head and I'm sure the media will bring up several times if we meet.

Yes and up until last night we had a historic winning record in December at home which got snapped.

Historical stats are about on the same level as superstitious beliefs like not changing your socks or underwear.

If we're 3-6, all that means is we were 1-6 prior to last year and Tom still has more work to do to fix that. And what could be more satisfying than fixing that record against Forehead?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

brady is 3-6 vs denver...only team that he has a losing record against..and i want to say out of those 6 losses...5 were in denver.. will be very tough


But like SVN said..the chips just fall this way i guess....if SD didn't blow their 24 pt lead over denver early in year we would be #2 right now ect ect ect..can do ifs all day..just sucks when the chips don't fall your way

 

[blackglass3]

Well turning pts were losing to ARI and Seattle as well, any game could make the diff. At the same time we couldve lost the jets OT game also. Just unfortunate for the pats how the chips fell in the end and they picked the worst possible game to lose.

I think the worst possible game to lose was the Seattle one. We had them dead in the water and let them back in with that awful string of offensive playcalling. Just like the Niners let us back in last night by not keeping their foot on our throats, we did the exact same thing with Seattle. Win that one (which we had multiple opportunities to do) and we're at the #2 right now.

 

[Rob0729]

Iam surprised a lot of people are taking denver easily that too on the road and that too with a HOF QB. Not very many teams have such QBs. I think we are talented enough to compete and win but denver is no pushover like a lot of people seem to assume, at least in my opinion.

Because I have watched their games. They come out flat in most games and have to dig themselves out of holes in the second half even against average and bad teams. You get down by three TDs at the half in the playoffs and odds are good you are going to lose.

Here are the halftime scores of their games where they struggled in the first half and turned on in the second (with the final results in parentheses):

Pittsburgh up by 10-7 (W 31-19)
Atlanta up 20-7 (L 27-21)
Houston up 21-11 (L 31-25)
Denver up vs. Oakland 10-6 (W 37-6)
Patriots up 17-7 (L 31-21)
Chargers up 24-0 (W 35-24)
Broncos beating the Chiefs 7-6 (W 17-9)
Tampa up 10-7 (W 31-23)


That is eight of their 14 games where they were either down or barely winning in a low scoring game only to turn it on in the second half. Against average and bad teams, the pull out the win. Against elite teams, they don't.

That is what gives me confidence. The fact that the Broncos are coming off the bye could be a disadvantage for them since teams coming off the bye can start slow.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I think the worst possible game to lose was the Seattle one. We had them dead in the water and let them back in with that awful string of offensive playcalling. Just like the Niners let us back in last night by not keeping their foot on our throats, we did the exact same thing with Seattle. Win that one (which we had multiple opportunities to do) and we're at the #2 right now.

I humbly disagree. The Arizona loss was the worst. Elite teams should be crappy teams at home, no matter what the circumstances. The Patriots lost to the Arizona Cardinals. You can expect to lose at home to a very good team like the Niners, or on the road to good teams like Baltimore and Seattle. The AZ game is the killer; it never should have been close. Essentially, the Broncos will be ahead of us because they didn't lose any games like that.

 

[BradyManny]

The following is a list of the Broncos impressive victories this season:

 

[SVN]

Because I have watched their games. They come out flat in most games and have to dig themselves out of holes in the second half even against average and bad teams. You get down by three TDs at the half in the playoffs and odds are good you are going to lose.

Here are the halftime scores of their games where they struggled in the first half and turned on in the second (with the final results in parentheses):

Pittsburgh up by 10-7 (W 31-19)
Atlanta up 20-7 (L 27-21)
Houston up 21-11 (L 31-25)
Denver up vs. Oakland 10-6 (W 37-6)
Patriots up 17-7 (L 31-21)
Chargers up 24-0 (W 35-24)
Broncos beating the Chiefs 7-6 (W 17-9)
Tampa up 10-7 (W 31-23)


That is eight of their 14 games where they were either down or barely winning in a low scoring game only to turn it on in the second half. Against average and bad teams, the pull out the win. Against elite teams, they don't.

That is what gives me confidence. The fact that the Broncos are coming off the bye could be a disadvantage for them since teams coming off the bye can start slow.

And you assume they will be down 3 scores at the half in a playoff game vs the pats and wont be fired up @HOME to come out and play hard ? So the only way pats beat denver is if they start slow ?
Look,I like our team but Denver @HOME is not even close to being an easy game just because how they have started or the competition they have played so far. Look how we started last nite compared to last week.