Moving on: LB position after Collins

[long distance]

First of all let me say that moving on from Collins feels almost like a catharsis to me. It was just a lot of tension and muddy waters around his contract and his play.

I really didn't like his vocabulary lately. It was all about “I don't care about what anybody thinks of my play .. I am doing my own thing .. playing my own game“ etc. All about “I“. Last year he commented that he didn't like the responsibility of calling the plays when High was injured. When BB was asked about this uncharacteristic comment he said: “If an athlete wants to do his individual thing then play an individual sport.“

Hearing about his quarrels with Patricia etc. was disturbing as well.

His mind was clearly not on the field and on the team. Therefore there are reasons to believe that even in this unlikely case the end result could be - addition by subtraction:


1) Run D - The best combination of LB's against the run this season was Ninko-Roberts-High all together or in various combinations. This was established in week 5 and worked well for two games Collins was out. Upon his return Roberts' snaps diminished greatly and so did the run D. When Roberts returned to his position (against run) instead of Collins @BUF the run D was better again. So Pats should be better without Collins here.

2) Pass D - This is the big question .. since this is also predominant phase of today's NFL. I don't think that there is a single player that can step into Collins' role of rushing the passer, dropping in coverage and creating turnovers .. so apart from Roberts a few other guys will have a chance to step up. Mingo fits the athletic build of Collins and he can rush well .. but we haven't really seen him in coverage much. Another guy whose snaps might rise significantly is McClellin who had some solid moments when he was healthy. Van Noy was a starter in Detroit so he is in game shape and we should soon see if he can be an early asset. Chung has been and will be a huge help. Maybe Rowe can add something in the middle of the field at times ..

Coming back to the initial thoughts .. maybe the most important thing that can happen after the bye shake-up is that all players will play with their minds fully on the field, respecting and executing the calls, going all-in on every play, fighting together, glued as a proper unit (including DBs and especially CBs) .. all playing with PASSION and SACRIFICE .. so as strange (or even crazy) as it might seem .. this could be another addition by subtraction BB pulled this season.

 

[Gronk]

I think McClellin on the field more will only lead to more second-guessing of the trade. He sucks. I'm open to him proving me wrong. I think they probably can find a way to make it mostly a non-issue - with a little good luck on the health/injury front. Losing the guy we saw Collins be at his best and/or the guy we all believed he could be, that sucks more than the actual player.

As when Chandler Jones was moved, there's often a fine line between respecting a guy's contribution to the team while he was here, and coming off like you think he sucked now that he's gone. But in a lot of ways, Collins was the least impressive part of the D this season - he wasn't as dynamic or omnipresent around the ball as he'd been in the past, and like many others upon the trade announcement I could more easily think of plays where I made excuses for him ("Collins held again!") or saw him get beat than I could think of great plays or big hits he made.

So yeah, I think they can make it an addition by subtraction, but it's going to take a lot of work to do that and they are undoubtedly taking a bit of a calculated risk with depth at LB here. HT is the only known left at the position. Roberts (rookie), Mingo (new), Van Noy (newer), Ninko (can still play in coverage at LB?), McClellin (not a football player) - all have their good points, except McClellin, but there's a bit of the unknown with each of them. But I will say all of which I am comfortable with so long as HT is on the field.

 

[JayNM]

Collins only has 1 sack this season. I though he had more. He is obviously disruptive when he blitz, but production wise, Hightower (1.5 sacks, but he was responsible for both Safeties we had this season IIRC) has been the best blitzer (Production stand point, at least) and Roberts has been showing tremendous downhill capability. Our problem, in this area, is that our D-Line can't get pressure by itself. Collins doesn't really have much to do with that.

On the pass coverage though, that's gonna be a big question mark going forward. Hightower isn't as athletic as Collins, so he will have trouble covering those mobile tight ends. Roberts, although unknown how good he really is here, is short, so is easy to foresee him having some trouble.

That leaves our OLBs as cover guys:

- Ninko is good, but he's old. Don't think we can trust him on a regular basis.

- I will go ahead and disagree wholeheartedly with the McClellin comment: He looks like to be lost every time he is in. Which makes sense, because he was dreadful in Chicago. The worst FA signing this season IMO. I thought i'd see him rushing more, but that hasn't happened.

- Sheard, Mingo are more rushers than anything else. Mingo was bad when asked to do that in Cleveland. Van Noy is somewhat similar, I read some posters in the Detroit forum complaining that he was bad covering, he should rush more.

- But now comes my theory, i think we are going to see more Pat Chung as our "Cover" Lb. He has been more of a "RB spy" this season, rather than TE cover boy.

The biggest problem though is the thinness of the position. Freeny is IR'ed, that leaves us with ZERO guys after HT and Roberts, for the Middle LB position. We have a LB in the PS, but i have no idea how good he is at what.

 

[Edelmania]

Since last year:
- Collins (trade), Freeny (IR)
+ Roberts (draft), Mingo (trade), McClellin (FA), Van Noy (trade)

Hopefully a combination of the new guys can fill the hole. I think we will be fine especially with the offence we have.

Also, one more thing I wanna throw out there is the possibility of a Jadeveon Clowney trade, highly unlikely but after today who knows. Hes been really good against the run and could help our pass rush a little.

 

[JayNM]

Since last year:
- Collins (trade), Freeny (IR)
+ Roberts (draft), Mingo (trade), McClellin (FA), Van Noy (trade)

Hopefully a combination of the new guys and fill the hole. I think we will be fine especially with the offence we have.

Also, one more thing I wanna throw out there is the possibility of a Jadeveon Clowney trade, highly unlikely but after today who knows. Hes been really good against the run and could help our pass rush a little.

There is 0 chance of that happening. He is in his Rookie contract, 1st pick overall and actually showing a lot of progress this season. Plus, Watt is hurt and there isn't really anyone else the Texans can use at the position. Their starter across him is the 35 year old Antonio Smith.

 

[jmt57]

Let's not forget that over the last few seasons the Patriots are in a nickel defense as often (or more) than not.

A rotation of Hightower, Ninkovich, Roberts, Mingo and Van Noy for what will often be two positions isn't the end of the world (and it leaves McClellin on the sideline).

 

[mgteich]

I believe that Ninkovich will lots more reps at LB.

We are fine at DE with Long, Sheard and Flowers.

Many of us were wondering about what key role Ninkoovich might play when he returned. Some of speculated that he would play more LB.

 

[luuked]

First of all let me say that moving on from Collins feels almost like a catharsis to me. It was just a lot of tension and muddy waters around his contract and his play.

I really didn't like his vocabulary lately. It was all about “I don't care about what anybody thinks of my play .. I am doing my own thing .. playing my own game“ etc. All about “I“. Last year he commented that he didn't like the responsibility of calling the plays when High was injured. When BB was asked about this uncharacteristic comment he said: “If an athlete wants to do his individual thing then play an individual sport.“

Hearing about his quarrels with Patricia etc. was disturbing as well.

His mind was clearly not on the field and on the team. Therefore there are reasons to believe that even in this unlikely case the end result could be - addition by subtraction:


1) Run D - The best combination of LB's against the run this season was Ninko-Roberts-High all together or in various combinations. This was established in week 5 and worked well for two games Collins was out. Upon his return Roberts' snaps diminished greatly and so did the run D. When Roberts returned to his position (against run) instead of Collins @BUF the run D was better again. So Pats should be better without Collins here.

2) Pass D - This is the big question .. since this is also predominant phase of today's NFL. I don't think that there is a single player that can step into Collins' role of rushing the passer, dropping in coverage and creating turnovers .. so apart from Roberts a few other guys will have a chance to step up. Mingo fits the athletic build of Collins and he can rush well .. but we haven't really seen him in coverage much. Another guy whose snaps might rise significantly is McClellin who had some solid moments when he was healthy. Van Noy was a starter in Detroit so he is in game shape and we should soon see if he can be an early asset. Chung has been and will be a huge help. Maybe Rowe can add something in the middle of the field at times ..

Coming back to the initial thoughts .. maybe the most important thing that can happen after the bye shake-up is that all players will play with their minds fully on the field, respecting and executing the calls, going all-in on every play, fighting together, glued as a proper unit (including DBs and especially CBs) .. all playing with PASSION and SACRIFICE .. so as strange (or even crazy) as it might seem .. this could be another addition by subtraction BB pulled this season.

The most shocking part of the trade to me was that it took me until Chatham's video and the beat reporters pointing it out yesterday to be even aware of Collins' tendency to freelance. Whenever I saw him take off and getting a surprising sack or missing a player (which often opened a lane) I thought we were seeing defensive calls by Matt Patricia.

Collins is a pretty good individual football player who is only held back from being great by his inconsistency but if he really "freelanced" regularly it would shed a lot of light into why he is gone and how ultimately this could be a net positive. The biggest Patriots mantra of the last few years that has made it even into pop culture is "do your job". And if Collins ignored his job to follow his gut feeling this essentially compromised the hours of work the coaches put into gameplanning and tons of effort his teammates put into doing their job.

 

[PF_SU]

Collins is a pretty good individual football player who is only held back from being great by his inconsistency but if he really "freelanced" regularly it would shed a lot of light into why he is gone and how ultimately this could be a net positive.

I don't think Belichick is outright against freelancing. Lawrence Taylor freelanced all the time and obviously Belichick had no problem with that. But if you are freelancing, you better be making the plays. *If* Collins was freelancing on a regular basis and not making the plays to offset that. Then it becomes a problem.

 

[luuked]

I don't think Belichick is outright against freelancing. Lawrence Taylor freelanced all the time and obviously Belichick had no problem with that. But if you are freelancing, you better be making the plays. *If* Collins was freelancing on a regular basis and not making the plays to offset that. Then it becomes a problem.

I am not sure I agree with that completely.

I am sure that BB and MP adjusted the overall defensive schemes towards Collins' strengths and build in some concepts where he was allowed to freelance. But those are specific schemes that account for him doing his thing. What I doubt will ever be acceptable is Collins doing his own thing on plays that have clearly defined roles. I keep coming back to that run play that was broken down by Chatham and those are the kinds of situations that have a clear coached answer and the rest of the team seems to execute just that except for Collins.

 

[long distance]

Some interesting points from this nice Hill's article:

Analysis of the 2016 Patriots defensive strengths and shortcomings


-- The Patriots ranked 5th in run defense DVOA, but an ugly 25th in pass defense DVOA
(despite pretty weak lineup of opposing QBs and very depleted receiving corpses)

-- Someone needs to inject some creativity into the defense .. the Patriots defense seems to react, instead of dictate .. I went back and watched the Patriots defense from 2015 and there isn’t a meaningful difference in play calling from 2016. Patricia is calling the same plays he was calling last year. I just noticed three main differences:
> The 2015 Patriots were much better at getting off their blocks to get after the quarterback.
> The Patriots are getting hit with more penalties that give up automatic first downs.
> The 2015 Patriots also defense played with a lot more emotion. (see gif)
(important side point .. I noted this also .. and a good indication if they got the message)



_

from BB:

“There’s nothing wrong, in fact you should be excited when you make a play,” Belichick said to his team in his A Football Life special. “Hell, look at all the work you put into it. All the time that you’ve spent in practice of putting into it. And to go out there in a game, competitively, and execute it well and make a play, you should be excited about it. And your teammates should be excited, too.

“So you watch the tape here and you see when we’re playing with energy and when we’re playing with emotion, and when we’re not. Nice hit, [DT Ty Warren]. Can’t even see one guy saying, ‘Good hit.’ Walk back to the huddle and it looks like we don’t even care.

“We aren’t good enough to play that way. I don’t know that anybody is. That’s it [LB Gary Guyton], you know it’s a good play. Just doesn’t really register with anybody else.”

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Collins did a lot of things well and allowed the defense to be more dynamic/confuse opposing offenses/disguise coverages. So, if BB was willing to offer the guy 11 million and still let him walk for what we perceive as sub-standard value (though we have no ideas who/what was offered), we have to assume it was for the betterment of the team now/going forward.

Not the first time he's gut punched/surprised us as fans. He always has a plan and a backup plan.

 

[Nunchucks]

I agree that Belichick doesn't mind players freelancing, as long as they are guessing correctly. A player freelances and guesses incorrectly, they are hurting the defense. Pretty simple concept.

This year is supposed to be Collins' FA year. The year where he puts it all together and has the best year possible to maximize his value on the market. He wasn't playing at the level he should have been and that is a problem.

 

[pazrul72]

I don't think Belicheck minds "freelancing" as long as you guess right more often then not. He went on about Bruschi's inhuman ability to be right more often then he was wrong. Showed him a tape of Bru blowing up a Colts PA off the strech play and asked him how did you know it wasn't a run? They look exactly the same. Bru's response was "i don't know the timing felt different" so there is something to be said for a player using his instincts...it's an art not a science. My read on Collins is this year he has been wrong more then right when he does that and did not like it being pointed out. He is still a phenomenal athlete and it bothers me they couldn't get him to buy in more IF that's truly the core cause of the trade.

Most trades that bother me (mankins for example) I can at least understand why they did it. Freeing up 8 mil dollars is worth giving up an underperforming pro bowl caliber player. This trade from a fan's point of view has NO positives and leaves you screaming why!?!?!? I get that they guaranteed the draft pick instead of hoping to get one from not signing enough FA to compensate for the loss but I find 8 games of "freelancing" Collins to be worth waaaaay more then a potential 4th round 2018 pick that is 50/50 at best of being a worthwhile contributer. Forget starter at that point in the draft you just want someone who does something good anywhere on the team. I trust that Bill has 10,000 times the info I do and that he is genuinely doing what he feels is best for the team so I am not losing my mind over this thinking we just lost the SB cuz of it but man does this suck and takes some of the entertainment value in watching the defense away.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Some interesting points from this nice Hill's article:

Analysis of the 2016 Patriots defensive strengths and shortcomings


-- The Patriots ranked 5th in run defense DVOA, but an ugly 25th in pass defense DVOA
(despite pretty weak lineup of opposing QBs and very depleted receiving corpses)

-- Someone needs to inject some creativity into the defense .. the Patriots defense seems to react, instead of dictate .. I went back and watched the Patriots defense from 2015 and there isn’t a meaningful difference in play calling from 2016. Patricia is calling the same plays he was calling last year. I just noticed three main differences:
> The 2015 Patriots were much better at getting off their blocks to get after the quarterback.
> The Patriots are getting hit with more penalties that give up automatic first downs.
> The 2015 Patriots also defense played with a lot more emotion. (see gif)
(important side point .. I noted this also .. and a good indication if they got the message)



_

from BB:

“There’s nothing wrong, in fact you should be excited when you make a play,” Belichick said to his team in his A Football Life special. “Hell, look at all the work you put into it. All the time that you’ve spent in practice of putting into it. And to go out there in a game, competitively, and execute it well and make a play, you should be excited about it. And your teammates should be excited, too.

“So you watch the tape here and you see when we’re playing with energy and when we’re playing with emotion, and when we’re not. Nice hit, [DT Ty Warren]. Can’t even see one guy saying, ‘Good hit.’ Walk back to the huddle and it looks like we don’t even care.

“We aren’t good enough to play that way. I don’t know that anybody is. That’s it [LB Gary Guyton], you know it’s a good play. Just doesn’t really register with anybody else.”

Great post. This D needs more attitude, swagger, and aggressiveness. Put the fear of God into the QB

 

[BradyFTW!]

I don't think Belicheck minds "freelancing" as long as you guess right more often then not. He went on about Bruschi's inhuman ability to be right more often then he was wrong. Showed him a tape of Bru blowing up a Colts PA off the strech play and asked him how did you know it wasn't a run? They look exactly the same. Bru's response was "i don't know the timing felt different" so there is something to be said for a player using his instincts...it's an art not a science. My read on Collins is this year he has been wrong more then right when he does that and did not like it being pointed out. He is still a phenomenal athlete and it bothers me they couldn't get him to buy in more IF that's truly the core cause of the trade.

Most trades that bother me (mankins for example) I can at least understand why they did it. Freeing up 8 mil dollars is worth giving up an underperforming pro bowl caliber player. This trade from a fan's point of view has NO positives and leaves you screaming why!?!?!? I get that they guaranteed the draft pick instead of hoping to get one from not signing enough FA to compensate for the loss but I find 8 games of "freelancing" Collins to be worth waaaaay more then a potential 4th round 2018 pick that is 50/50 at best of being a worthwhile contributer. Forget starter at that point in the draft you just want someone who does something good anywhere on the team. I trust that Bill has 10,000 times the info I do and that he is genuinely doing what he feels is best for the team so I am not losing my mind over this thinking we just lost the SB cuz of it but man does this suck and takes some of the entertainment value in watching the defense away.

Agreed, I think there's also something to be said for the praise that Belichick repeatedly heaped on Ray Lewis, who was one of the most instinctive players I've ever seen. The Ravens used to routinely assign him two gaps, and just count on him to instinctively recognize which was the right one. Which, to his credit, he almost always did.

I also pretty much agree with the 2nd part. Yes, we all understand that comp picks aren't guaranteed. But it's also the case that the Pats have always been willing and able to tailor their FA strategy to ensure that they get those comp picks when they're on the table. It's as simple as signing guys who were cut rather than whose contracts ran out. If the Pats wanted to lock in the pick, they could do that in several different ways, and only one of them involved giving up a half season and playoff run of Collins.

Which suggests to me that there must have been something else. I think Belichick believes he could make the defense play better this year--or at least at the same level--without Collins rather than with him. Not that he thinks anyone is going to individually replace the guy, but that he he thinks the rest of the LB rotation is good enough, and probably that Collins was hurting the defense in ways that we weren't consistently seeing.

 

[PF_SU]

Agreed, I think there's also something to be said for the praise that Belichick repeatedly heaped on Ray Lewis, who was one of the most instinctive players I've ever seen. The Ravens used to routinely assign him two gaps, and just count on him to instinctively recognize which was the right one. Which, to his credit, he almost always did.

Lawrence Taylor freelanced all the time. The DC? Bill Belichick.

 

[Brit patriot]

Has Collins been traded???????

 

[BradyFTW!]

Some interesting points from this nice Hill's article:

Analysis of the 2016 Patriots defensive strengths and shortcomings


-- The Patriots ranked 5th in run defense DVOA, but an ugly 25th in pass defense DVOA
(despite pretty weak lineup of opposing QBs and very depleted receiving corpses)

-- Someone needs to inject some creativity into the defense .. the Patriots defense seems to react, instead of dictate .. I went back and watched the Patriots defense from 2015 and there isn’t a meaningful difference in play calling from 2016. Patricia is calling the same plays he was calling last year. I just noticed three main differences:
> The 2015 Patriots were much better at getting off their blocks to get after the quarterback.
> The Patriots are getting hit with more penalties that give up automatic first downs.
> The 2015 Patriots also defense played with a lot more emotion. (see gif)
(important side point .. I noted this also .. and a good indication if they got the message)



_

from BB:

“There’s nothing wrong, in fact you should be excited when you make a play,” Belichick said to his team in his A Football Life special. “Hell, look at all the work you put into it. All the time that you’ve spent in practice of putting into it. And to go out there in a game, competitively, and execute it well and make a play, you should be excited about it. And your teammates should be excited, too.

“So you watch the tape here and you see when we’re playing with energy and when we’re playing with emotion, and when we’re not. Nice hit, [DT Ty Warren]. Can’t even see one guy saying, ‘Good hit.’ Walk back to the huddle and it looks like we don’t even care.

“We aren’t good enough to play that way. I don’t know that anybody is. That’s it [LB Gary Guyton], you know it’s a good play. Just doesn’t really register with anybody else.”

Good article, but one small quibble. The Pats' pass D isn't 25th in DVOA despite playing bad QBs, it's 25th because they've played bad QBs. DVOA is adjusted to strength of competition, so there's no need for that disclaimer from Hill. It's redundant at best and misleading at worst.

The Pats' adjusted value is 21.2%, vs. a non-adjusted value of 16.7%. Lower values are better for defense, so the fact that their value has been adjusted upward is FO accounting for how they've faced weaker-than-average passing offenses. The non-adjusted value is good for 21st in the league, FWIW, so this adjustment drops them 4 spots.

 

[neuronet]

Is it too late to get Chandler Jones back?