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More valuable? (Seymour vs. Draft Pick)


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More valuable?


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I love this place! We are all speculating the moves of a man who once cut the team captain and beloved fan favorite, the man who did not draft a talented College WR and instead drafted a DL from Georgia who noone knew about and thought he wouldnt be an impact player, and lets not forget a scrawney gangley 6th rd draft pick from Michigan who took over for another fan favorite what was his name again. I am sure BB knows more about the situation than we do. I realize we need to vent but look at it this way in a few years wont it be great when we start wondering how we are gonna keep Brace and pay all 4 DL on the starting line who are under 30.
 
No Brainer here, drop in Brace or Jarvis and we don't miss a beat. This defense will not be predicated on Big Sey being there or not, it will be predicated on this suspect secondary and their ability to make plays and come together in what will hopefully be a short amount of time.

Again, Sey's enormous CAP hits over the past 3 years never matched his production. This will allow Brace to get more reps, develop much quicker and it will free up more reps for the real pass rusher at his natural down DE spot, Burgess. Great move as usual...................Thanks Al.

Based on what we know, it's very plausible to believe that BB is very pleased with Brace and Pryor and by mixing in Burgess/ Banta- Cain/ AD; we could move more towards what he wants to do.

As dedicated fans, we don't even know if we are going to a 4-3.
 
So, you're not quite sure whether there will be any dropoff from Seymour to Pryor?

For this season, Seymour is more valuable than a draft pick. However, he would have been gone after this season (most likely) and we wouldn't have received anything for him in return. It's a catch-22, really. Is our defense better with Seymour in it? As of right now, I will say yes because we only have a vague idea of what we have with Myron Pryor. So, for 2009, Richard Seymour is more valuable to this defense. Past 2009, with Richard being 30 and his contract being up, the pick is more valuable.
 
So, you're not quite sure whether there will be any dropoff from Seymour to Pryor?

Are you? Did you happen to videotape the practice that you were at? I ask this, not to be a smart ass, but because nobody outside of the organization is sure of what Pryor brings to the table. That general consensus is that he is a diamond in the rough that we found in the draft. That might be true, but as of this point we don't know if he's capable of filling Seymour's big shoes.

To directly answer your question - Yes. I think there will be a noticeable drop off. Just how noticeable it will be is up in the air depending on how good Brace and Pryor actually are, as I stated in my first paragraph.
 
Of course, you are right. Pryor could be the DROY and be as valuable as one of the best DE's in the game and one who knows our system well. Then again he might not be quite so good.

Are you? Did you happen to videotape the practice that you were at? I ask this, not to be a smart ass, but because nobody outside of the organization is sure of what Pryor brings to the table. That general consensus is that he is a diamond in the rough that we found in the draft. That might be true, but as of this point we don't know if he's capable of filling Seymour's big shoes.

To directly answer your question - Yes. I think there will be a noticeable drop off. Just how noticeable it will be is up in the air depending on how good Brace and Pryor actually are, as I stated in my first paragraph.
 
That is one thing I have said time and time again that has put my mind at ease about this deal. Belichick isn't the type of person to do something like this without a solid back-up plan in mind. It's no coincidence that he waited until AFTER the preseason to do this when he could have done it before hand. My guess is that he liked what he saw in someone. My guess is also that it is not Jarvis Green since BB knows what he has in Jarvis. It's either Pryor or Brace (or both). If I had to choose between the two, I would go with Pryor since he's been impressive in the preseason. This is assuming that we still run the 3-4 as our base. If it's the 4-3 (which I think it will be), then both are not bad.

No we're getting somewhere. Nice to actually debate moves instead of hand wring about something we have no control over, but I digress. :rolleyes:

One of the things that drives me nuts is when people come in a say stuff like Seymour gonna be replaced by Pryor/Brace and therefore the trade is hidious for the loss we're gonna feel because the drop from player 1 to 2. That is fairly such one demential thinking.

I totally agree that BB saw something he REALLY liked in Pryor/Brace.

It has to do with what BB's intentions are with his D line. We're OBVIOUSLY changing to a 4-3 base, so that means our personnel is now judged on how they project into a 4-3 base (not a 3-4). Personally, I think JG project's better on the end in a 4-3, then he does as Sey's replacement in a 3-4. Notice how I compared JG to JG and not JG to RS. You can't to that, it does not work that way. JG in one system, is not exactly the same (he could be, but I doubt it). Taken the same way RS in a 4-3 project's differently then in a 3-4, as does Wilfork and everyone else in the line.

IMO, RS project's as slightly less important in a 4-3 then 3-4 (when you factor in the rest of our personnel), as does Wilfork. I personally think that JG project's a little better in the 4-3 then he did in the 3-4. So the net loss of one player could get offset by the gains in other ones once you factor in the all the moving parts that make up the DL. That is where the development of Pryor or Brace could factor heavily on the "value" of the other parts as a whole. Lets not forget Burgess in all this either, or Wright for that matter.

In fact, I'm willing to bet BB has some mathematical formula that calculates the loss/gain of all the moving parts he has, and he makes decision's from there. If the rumor that both RS and Big Vince were considered pretty much confirms this in my mind.

And before people jump in with X's and O's about how JG projects here or there, based on x/o, STOP....... (I'm just using him as one example, but you can do it right along the line and even back to the LB's too).

Bottom line, NONE of us know exactly what BB is looking to do, except to say that what he's doing this year is totally different then last year. So the VALUE that we place on individual players MEANS d!ck compared to the value that HE places on them.

What we do know, is that BB decided that RS 09, was not valued as highly as unnamed 1st round player 11 (and beyond).

This may be a gamble, but it's not even remotely close to the 06 situation with Branch (which was thrust upon him and caught him flatfooted). This was calculated and BB was the driver (and Big Al the victim :D ).

Exit Question: Vrab's was cast aside pretty quickly (seemingly), we all insisted it was financial...... perhaps not entirely . Now that we have had a (slightly) better idea of what might be to come on D, ask yourself how he would have projected into the 4-3 scheme that appears to be setting up....... and compare it to his salary.
 
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You have all missed a point, that Seymour will be sufficiently motivated to have a monster year BECAUSE he is in a contract year ala Taylor in Miami. If he does we can franchise him, we have plenty of cap space. We are NOT extending anyone(not TB or Vince)til the smoke clears, and not signing any FAs of note so we would still get the 3rd rd pick.Lets also add that the 2011 draft will not be deep, with potential salary slotting all bubble guys will be coming out in 2010 for sure. If nothing changes, a high pick is something WE DONT WANT, a cap-killing rookie contract. And bottom line, not having him WILL cost us at least 1 game this year....lets hope its not the last one! Though on paper it looks like a great trade for us only time will tell.
 
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You have all missed a point, that Seymour will be sufficiently motivated to have a monster year BECAUSE he is in a contract year ala Taylor in Miami. If he does we can franchise him, we have plenty of cap space. We are NOT extending anyone(not TB or Vince)til the smoke clears, and not signing any FAs of note so we would still get the 3rd rd pick.Lets also add that the 2011 draft will not be deep, with potential salary slotting all bubble guys will be coming out in 2010 for sure. If nothing changes, a high pick is something WE DONT WANT, a cap-killing rookie contract. And bottom line, not having him WILL cost us at least 1 game this year....lets hope its not the last one! Though on paper it looks like a great trade for us only time will tell.

You have missed the point that Seymour was not going to be tagged next season on the wrong side of 30. That player doesn't have the trade value as a franchise tagged player because of his age (31 early in the 2010 season) and contract demands. Now they can use the tag on Wilfork and either trade or sign him (which was never going to be an option for Seymour because of his age and demands). And then Pats believe there will be rookie slotting come 2011 which will make that pick more valuable. And certainly preferable to an end of the third that is no guarantee (because they might well sign a FA in 2010 that negates a compensatory pick) in a draft you have determined to be not deep...
 
Bill seldom limits his options to one for one replacements, either. He covers the loss of production as opposed to the loss of the individual. He doesn't need Seymour to replace Seymour. He needs some combination of production from some combination of players that roughly replaces Seymour.
 
Normally I'd go with a player in a Contract Year as the preferred entity.

But in Seymour's case we saw that in the 2007 Season when they went 18-0 he didn't have a significant impact - he missed a lot of games and had one sack (that being said, I recognize that Stats don't always tell the whole story - especially with Seymour).

So I guess I'll go with the draft pick on this one - but parting ways with a big contributor for the future consideration of a high draft pick is difficult, especially when one wants to win the SB NOW!
 
No we're getting somewhere. Nice to actually debate moves instead of hand wring about something we have no control over, but I digress. :rolleyes:

One of the things that drives me nuts is when people come in a say stuff like Seymour gonna be replaced by Pryor/Brace and therefore the trade is hidious for the loss we're gonna feel because the drop from player 1 to 2. That is fairly such one demential thinking.

I totally agree that BB saw something he REALLY liked in Pryor/Brace.

It has to do with what BB's intentions are with his D line. We're OBVIOUSLY changing to a 4-3 base, so that means our personnel is now judged on how they project into a 4-3 base (not a 3-4). Personally, I think JG project's better on the end in a 4-3, then he does as Sey's replacement in a 3-4. Notice how I compared JG to JG and not JG to RS. You can't to that, it does not work that way. JG in one system, is not exactly the same (he could be, but I doubt it). Taken the same way RS in a 4-3 project's differently then in a 3-4, as does Wilfork and everyone else in the line.

IMO, RS project's as slightly less important in a 4-3 then 3-4 (when you factor in the rest of our personnel), as does Wilfork. I personally think that JG project's a little better in the 4-3 then he did in the 3-4. So the net loss of one player could get offset by the gains in other ones once you factor in the all the moving parts that make up the DL. That is where the development of Pryor or Brace could factor heavily on the "value" of the other parts as a whole. Lets not forget Burgess in all this either, or Wright for that matter.

In fact, I'm willing to bet BB has some mathematical formula that calculates the loss/gain of all the moving parts he has, and he makes decision's from there. If the rumor that both RS and Big Vince were considered pretty much confirms this in my mind.

And before people jump in with X's and O's about how JG projects here or there, based on x/o, STOP....... (I'm just using him as one example, but you can do it right along the line and even back to the LB's too).

Bottom line, NONE of us know exactly what BB is looking to do, except to say that what he's doing this year is totally different then last year. So the VALUE that we place on individual players MEANS d!ck compared to the value that HE places on them.

What we do know, is that BB decided that RS 09, was not valued as highly as unnamed 1st round player 11 (and beyond).

This may be a gamble, but it's not even remotely close to the 06 situation with Branch (which was thrust upon him and caught him flatfooted). This was calculated and BB was the driver (and Big Al the victim :D ).

Exit Question: Vrab's was cast aside pretty quickly (seemingly), we all insisted it was financial...... perhaps not entirely . Now that we have had a (slightly) better idea of what might be to come on D, ask yourself how he would have projected into the 4-3 scheme that appears to be setting up....... and compare it to his salary.

Bill seldom limits his options to one for one replacements, either. He covers the loss of production as opposed to the loss of the individual. He doesn't need Seymour to replace Seymour. He needs some combination of production from some combination of players that roughly replaces Seymour.

You said it much more succintly that I did. Well done. That is exactly what I was trying to say :eek:
 
Belichick isn't the type of person to do something like this without a solid back-up plan in mind.

This should be an entry level qualification for anyone coaching any position in the NFL. Don't trade someone unless you have a plan for how to fill his shoes - is that too much to ask for someone in the top 1% of his profession?
 
Even if the patriots were able to sign Seymour to an extension, he is at best a good run stopping DE for the rest of his career. Iam sure you can find a good Run stoping DE with a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Yes Seymour is a good player but when it comes to sacks he doesnt compare to the league's best. He is a strong player that can over power his opponent but he is not fast enough, so when you have a good QB who can make good reads, and can get rid off the ball fast, Seymour's ability to get to the QB is nullified.
 
This should be an entry level qualification for anyone coaching any position in the NFL. Don't trade someone unless you have a plan for how to fill his shoes - is that too much to ask for someone in the top 1% of his profession?

Why? That makes the rest of the NFL easier for us to beat. ;)
 
From looking over past drafts, 1st round draft picks bust at a close to 50% ratio. The one from the trade, even if we hit on the player, won't be on the team for a couple years, and it could be a couple more years before he even produces.

Easy answer for me - we're unquestionably a better team with Seymour and that increased chance at getting a ring in 09 trumps all.
 
we all think its a great move cause now they can sign wilfork and get a top 10 pick from oakland

1 oakland plays in the AFC WEST and maybe a 10 win team in 2 years and the pick would be a top 20 pick not a top 10

2 they still maynot sign wilfork and even if they do if they are going to play the 4-3 full time there is no reason to pay a 2 down run stoper 15 million a year
 
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From looking over past drafts, 1st round draft picks bust at a close to 50% ratio. The one from the trade, even if we hit on the player, won't be on the team for a couple years, and it could be a couple more years before he even produces.

Easy answer for me - we're unquestionably a better team with Seymour and that increased chance at getting a ring in 09 trumps all.

Not BB's 1st round picks............. If you wanna call Maroney as bust (which is very debatable), he's 89% on with all his 1st round picks. when you limit it to top 20 picks (and Oakland's pick project's at a top 20), then he has 3, Seymour, Mayo and Warren, and that makes him 100% hits.

Bad argument.
 
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Now that the season's over, thought I'd pick this back up.

Do you feel the trade was worth it? Still a yes for me. If the absence of Richard Seymour is what clearly cost us a SB title this year then I can easily see why people would regret. However, I don't think this team was SB caliber with or without Seymour.
 
I already feel sorry for that pick.If he was a maroney ,watson,merriweather or even ty warren who took 3 yrs to become a force can you imagine the beating he is going to take.
 
I already feel sorry for that pick.If he was a maroney ,watson,merriweather or even ty warren who took 3 yrs to become a force can you imagine the beating he is going to take.

First round picks Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins and Jerod Mayo didn't have much trouble.
 
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