Michael Lombardi's bold prediction on Mallett

[Shelterdog]

Go read a few draft profiles on the kid, or go watch him in action, and you can start to get a picture. His issues with pressure are probably the main problem. The modern NFL makes it very difficult to consistently keep a QB clean, and this kid is heavily reliant on a clean pocket.

Look, let's put it another way. In a year with what's been considered a terrible QB class, the guy still managed to fall to the 3rd round. That's not a guarantee that the kid will be coaching high school football in a year or anything, but it should be a caution flag for this team's fans and the hype machine.

Thanks. I think my issue is really a semantic one. I know he's not perfect-he's Chad Henne with off the field issues, not Manning with off the field issues-but developmental suggests a very talented but very raw player, and while he has a ways to go he's not very raw.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Certainly a very valid and fair viewpoint. Apologies for being on a different wavelength regarding the personal opinion on Mallett, instead of the actual point about the boards'/posters' tendencies.

I don't know if we'll ever find out the specifics behind the thinking regarding BB's choice. Maybe he felt there was just too much upside + value with Mallett falling? Maybe he just didn't like this particular draft very much, which is kind of the feeling that I get. I am hoping that the other front 7 (specifically OLB) need (s) will be addressed via free agency of course, and feel as though he may prefer more seasoned vets with experience, as opposed to having to groom starters at that specific position.

With a healthier and more experienced front line + the addition of Stroud (and even possible retention of G.Warren--still up in the air), and BB's tendency to address and solidify the back part of the defense, the only perceived 'weakness' that I see would be ONE outside LB'er. I do agree that it was a typical BB WTF type pick for some, no doubting that. But if either of the reasons listed above regarding his reasoning are true, or even the theory of not wanting the 2-3 yr learning curve at OLB, he still may have set the team up for more immediate results this year AND possibly addressed the future at the same time.

All in all, I can certainly respect your feeling on wanting to address a current weakness rather than worry about a developmental QB. Obviously, only time will tell if it was the right choice or not. One thing's for sure, our teams' coach certainly gives us plenty to talk about, and keeps us on our toes all through the year--off season or not

In a dispassionate review of the Patriots roster prior to the Draft, there appeared to be several openings for players.

Most Teams carry three QBs, including the Pats, yet for two years the Pats only carried two, so an opening at reserve QB was there. Filling it with a 3rd round pick, who some think might be a First Round in god-given QB talent, is a superb addition to the QB reserves.

The Pats were now deep with six young safeties, but there was at least one CB position open.

There appeared to be openings at RB, with age and injury affecting three of the five positions there. Finally, there was at least one opening on the Offensive line with the retirement of Stephen Neal. In addition the end was in view for Matt Light within a few years. Login Mankins contract tribulations added some uncertainty, so there was an opening for one or more on the Offensive line.

Realistically, BB felt there was one development position open at OLB. He has said he likes his OLBs which people ignored. He likes the development of Cunningham and Ninkovitch. TBC is a pass rush specialist who will be fresher, perhaps healthier, as a situation substitute for Pass Rushing, than as a full time OLB, with acknowledged weakness versus the run.

BB knows that developing an OLB from a DE, is a multi-year process, helped by having a low priced candidate that he can stash on the PS or the end of the roster, for a year or three. BB also knows that the "Pass Rush" is not that far from being fully acceptable. The difference between 36/year last season, versus 41/year during the Super Bowl years, is a mere difference of 5 sacks over 16 games, and is up from 29/year at the lowest depths of De-construction and Re-building.

Fans always want to compare the Pats sack numbers with gambling, penetrating, blitzing Defenses. BB knows that numbers are not comparable. Read-and-React, fundamentally sound, two-gap Defenses will never accumulate the same number of sacks. A 40 sack season on a two-gap Defense is like 50-60 sacks, on a blitz happy, gambling, Defense such as the Jets employ.

The proof of the pudding, is the results. The Patriots Defense was now back in the Top Ten in the only Defensive stat that counts, Points Allowed, in the 2010 season. Even better results are reasonably anticipated from mere added experience for the Players already on the roster. The improvement over the season was obvious; first half 23.5 points per game, improved to 15.6 points per game over the second half, while playing 5 of the 8 versus Playoff participants, including both Super Bowl contestants.

I would judge that Belichick filled all of the remaining open rebuilding positions, with candidates. Some of which may actually turn into NFL players. Meanwhile he has given himself another advantage for the 2012 Draft, even if it is to only receive the Annuity or Interest benefits, of then trading picks into 2013.

 

[jeffbiologist]

In the 3rd round can anyone name ANY team that he wouldnt be a "perfect fit" for????

 

[ausbacker]

Go read a few draft profiles on the kid, or go watch him in action, and you can start to get a picture. His issues with pressure are probably the main problem. The modern NFL makes it very difficult to consistently keep a QB clean, and this kid is heavily reliant on a clean pocket.

Look, let's put it another way. In a year with what's been considered a terrible QB class, the guy still managed to fall to the 3rd round. That's not a guarantee that the kid will be coaching high school football in a year or anything, but it should be a caution flag for this team's fans and the hype machine.

And a person with massive mechanical flaws, huge character issues and no ability to verbalize NFL quality plays went as the overall number 1 so I'm not really seeing your point Deus.

Every draft pick is a lottery based on perception.

 

[supafly]

In a dispassionate review of the Patriots roster prior to the Draft, there appeared to be several openings for players.

Most Teams carry three QBs, including the Pats, yet for two years the Pats only carried two, so an opening at reserve QB was there. Filling it with a 3rd round pick, who some think might be a First Round in god-given QB talent, is a superb addition to the QB reserves.

The Pats were now deep with six young safeties, but there was at least one CB position open.

There appeared to be openings at RB, with age and injury affecting three of the five positions there. Finally, there was at least one opening on the Offensive line with the retirement of Stephen Neal. In addition the end was in view for Matt Light within a few years. Login Mankins contract tribulations added some uncertainty, so there was an opening for one or more on the Offensive line.

Realistically, BB felt there was one development position open at OLB. He has said he likes his OLBs which people ignored. He likes the development of Cunningham and Ninkovitch. TBC is a pass rush specialist who will be fresher, perhaps healthier, as a situation substitute for Pass Rushing, than as a full time OLB, with acknowledged weakness versus the run.

BB knows that developing an OLB from a DE, is a multi-year process, helped by having a low priced candidate that he can stash on the PS or the end of the roster, for a year or three. BB also knows that the "Pass Rush" is not that far from being fully acceptable. The difference between 36/year last season, versus 41/year during the Super Bowl years, is a mere difference of 5 sacks over 16 games, and is up from 29/year at the lowest depths of De-construction and Re-building.

Fans always want to compare the Pats sack numbers with gambling, penetrating, blitzing Defenses. BB knows that numbers are not comparable. Read-and-React, fundamentally sound, two-gap Defenses will never accumulate the same number of sacks. A 40 sack season on a two-gap Defense is like 50-60 sacks, on a blitz happy, gambling, Defense such as the Jets employ.

The proof of the pudding, is the results. The Patriots Defense was now back in the Top Ten in the only Defensive stat that counts, Points Allowed, in the 2010 season. Even better results are reasonably anticipated from mere added experience for the Players already on the roster. The improvement over the season was obvious; first half 23.5 points per game, improved to 15.6 points per game over the second half, while playing 5 of the 8 versus Playoff participants, including both Super Bowl contestants.

I would judge that Belichick filled all of the remaining open rebuilding positions, with candidates. Some of which may actually turn into NFL players. Meanwhile he has given himself another advantage for the 2012 Draft, even if it is to only receive the Annuity or Interest benefits, of then trading picks into 2013.

Oh, I certainly hear ya--AZ.

I went out on a limb and actually gave a fully hearted discussion thread on exactly why we should address the offensive side of the ball a few days before the draft---including the QB position. Many thought I was completely nuts. I am more than happy with the choices, and certainly feel as though the Mallett pick was a great one. I love the improvement of the QB, RB, and OL positions.

I can also respect the fact that many like Deus, thought it was a 'WTF' type pick--but to be honest (without sounding like an *****), I was not surprised in the least.

I cannot see many holes on the defensive side of the ball at all. I love BB's tendency to 'attack' the passing game with the improvement of the back line positions--which also will help with a 'ST only' freed up roster spot. I have never considered myself a homer, and am awfully 'cautiously optimistic' when it comes to anything Pats related, but I really feel good about this team, and their chances at making a serious push--both now and in the future.

I am one happy guy after the draft, now let's..play..ball

Edit: (BTW--nice stats reminder for those that are so concerned with sacks, and the pass rush. It really helps to put things into perspective)

 

[Shelterdog]

In the 3rd round can anyone name ANY team that he wouldnt be a "perfect fit" for????

For starters anywhere where they already drafted a decent QB this year of last year (Carolina/Tenn./Vikings/Bengals/49ers/Jacksonville/St Louis/Cleveland/Denver)--you don't want a QB controversey with two young QBs every time the guy drafted ahead of him stinks.

Then anywhere where he'd be under pressure to start as a rookie (Arizona, Seattle) including so-so teams that might have him start if they're struggling (maybe the Redskins/Dolphins/Raiders/Bills).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

For starters anywhere where they already drafted a decent QB this year of last year (Carolina/Tenn./Vikings/Bengals/49ers/Jacksonville/St Louis/Cleveland/Denver)--you don't want a QB controversey with two young QBs every time the guy drafted ahead of him stinks.

Then anywhere where he'd be under pressure to start as a rookie (Arizona, Seattle) including so-so teams that might have him start if they're struggling (maybe the Redskins/Dolphins/Raiders/Bills).

And let's not forget the Colts, where whoever backs up Paymetons is required, apparently, to stink on ice.

 

[Shelterdog]

And let's not forget the Colts, where whoever backs up Paymetons is required, apparently, to stink on ice.

That's pretty good.

In seriousness Colts/Pats/NY Giants are probably the best locations for him--really stable franchises with established quarterbacks and offensive systems built for pure dropback passers with limited mobility.

 

[Deus Irae]

And a person with massive mechanical flaws, huge character issues and no ability to verbalize NFL quality plays went as the overall number 1 so I'm not really seeing your point Deus.

Every draft pick is a lottery based on perception.

I'm not going to debate the merits of Mallett. If you want to equate drafting Newton with drafting Mallett, that's your choice to make.

 

[ausbacker]

I'm not going to debate the merits of Mallett. If you want to equate drafting Newton with drafting Mallett, that's your choice to make.

As per usual a point is raised which devalues your standpoint and you sidestep it knowing what the outcome will be.

Forgive me for using a QB in a comparison of QB's, draft position and perception where you've referenced the 2011 QB crop as a poor one.

As I said, every draft pick is a lottery until proven otherwise.

 

[Deus Irae]

As per usual a point is raised which devalues your standpoint and you sidestep it knowing what the outcome will be.

Forgive me for using a QB in a comparison of QB's, draft position and perception where you've referenced the 2011 QB crop as a poor one.

As I said, every draft pick is a lottery until proven otherwise.

Had you read the thread, you'd have seen where I was pointing out that I was not talking about Mallett's skills. I even told one person who asked my take on it to go read on it and check out some videos, pointing out only the most well known example of the kid's on-the-field issues. Instead, you chose to be an ass, "as per usual".

What's worse is that your so-called point was asinine and, yet, you still went that route.

Congratulations

 

[ausbacker]

Had you read the thread, you'd have seen where I was pointing out that I was not talking about Mallett's skills. I even told one person who asked my take on it to go read on it and check out some videos, pointing out only the most well known example of the kid's on-the-field issues. Instead, you chose to be an ass, "as per usual".

What's worse is that your so-called point was asinine and, yet, you still went that route.

Congratulations

I've read the thread several times and come to the conclusion that your bullshîtting begins when you're challenged to provide a reasonable comment when it's pointed out that your position is hypocritical to begin with given Mallett's draft position and teams needs. That has no bearing on the draft being an exact science especially when you consider Newton went 1 and Carolina has a plethora of needs and spent a highish pick on Clausen in 2010. What does this have to do with Mallett? New England saw value at selecting him when they did. That doesn't mean his grade is worth a 3rd round pick. It could be higher and it could be lower. Team needs or not the value assigned was too good to pass on (according to the Pats brass), but you won't acknowledge that.

The fact is, you confuse yourself more often then not and then attempt it to blame it on the other person.

 

[goheels22002]

And a person with massive mechanical flaws, huge character issues and no ability to verbalize NFL quality plays went as the overall number 1 so I'm not really seeing your point Deus.

Every draft pick is a lottery based on perception.

Mallett is a better bet than Cam Newton, based on what we've seen on the Gruden QB show and how everybody dissed his ability to describe plays. At least as a QB initially.

Newton might be that guy that maximizes his obviously impressive physical skills and becomes the first supersized Michael Vick or Randall Cunningham. It's funny how brains and judgement keep coming up with Newton but other big physical QBs like Roethlisberger aren't exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer and succeed. But Newton is a giant option back, basically, who throws out of the gun. NFL defenses tend to pound these guys mercilessly.

Deus is right about the level of risk in thinking Mallett is the next starter for the Pats, but he a has a couple of years to learn under the best and the physical tools and arm to do the job. I like his size and the fact that Belichick interviewed him to see if he understood the game. He must have impressed.

It may be Brady and Hoyer's job to teach work ethic and commitment which the Pats' vets do well in lots of circumstances or guys are expunged. BB does not hesitate to axe lazy guys and/or publicly humiliate them.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I'm not talking specifically about the qualities of the players, Supafly. I'm talking about the postings of the people. I'm not sure I've even offered my opinion of Mallet (as a player) anywhere on this site, to date. As best I can recall, all I've said about Mallet is that the pick didn't make sense because the notion of drafting a developmental QB in round 3 with the other needs of the team was a bad one. And I stand by that.

I just find it amusing that the O'Connell banter has basically been cloned, with the same type of people who were on the wrong side before being even more strident in defense of Mallet, and the sort of people who were on the right side before being more timid this time around. I think it says quite a bit about where this site has gone since 2008.

Sorry I disagree. "What other needs"? Talent is where you find it. If a player is available in the third round who you judged to be a first round talent, you take him. Neither Rome nor any football team, is built in a day or a single draft. It is a process that historically was called a "Five Year Plan".

Belichick is doing it in three years, because he has had double drafts over those three seasons of picks, plus his talent evaluation perspicacity. When it became economically infeasible to keep Matt Cassel, and KOC failed, he played a couple of years with only two QBs, that merited keeping.

But from a Team standpoint that is NOT optimum. Ideally, you would like to prep a starter and a hot backup; and use the third QB to run the scout team in a fashion that the Defense does get some valid practice time. Hence the usual situation is teams carry three QBs. Otherwise you can run the risk and wear out the QBs arms.

In this draft, BB was much more concerned with rebuilding the few positions remaining that needed reconstruction, which were specifically the offensive line and the RBs. Yes, 'few positions' is what I said, and what I meant. Poor clubs don't go and produce the best record in the league at 14-2.

If Mallett had not unexpectedly fallen into his arms, I fully expected BB to take Alabama's heady and poised Gregory in the fifth or sixth round, as there was an opening at that position too.:snob:

The D line is deep and young; and the OLBs, like the ILBs last season, are ready to round into an acceptable crew, that experience will only improve. The Defense which ended up as the 8th stingiest in the League, will start there, and improve even more, with the addition of two starting quality CBs, an ILB, and a starting DE or two.

The highest scoring Offense in the League has been significantly augmented with a pair of offensive line studs, and a couple of more RBs.

 

[ausbacker]

Mallett is a better bet than Cam Newton, based on what we've seen on the Gruden QB show and how everybody dissed his ability to describe plays. At least as a QB initially.

Newton might be that guy that maximizes his obviously impressive physical skills and becomes the first supersized Michael Vick or Randall Cunningham. It's funny how brains and judgement keep coming up with Newton but other big physical QBs like Roethlisberger aren't exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer and succeed. But Newton is a giant option back, basically, who throws out of the gun. NFL defenses tend to pound these guys mercilessly.

Deus is right about the level of risk in thinking Mallett is the next starter for the Pats, but he a has a couple of years to learn under the best and the physical tools and arm to do the job. I like his size and the fact that Belichick interviewed him to see if he understood the game. He must have impressed.

It may be Brady and Hoyer's job to teach work ethic and commitment which the Pats' vets do well in lots of circumstances or guys are expunged. BB does not hesitate to axe lazy guys and/or publicly humiliate them.

I agree with you goheels22002 just like I agree with much of what Deus Irae has written. My conjecture comes when the application of an idea isn't extended to all and sundry.

Sorry I disagree. "What other needs"? Talent is where you find it. If a player is available in the third round who you judged to be a first round talent, you take him. Rome nor any football team, is built in a day or a single draft. It is a process that historically was called a "Five Year Plan".

Belichick is doing it in three years, because he has had double drafts over those three seasons of picks, plus his talent evaluation perspicacity. When it became economically infeasible to keep Matt Cassel, and KOC failed, he played a couple of years with only two QBs, that merited keeping.

But from a Team standpoint that is NOT optimum. Ideally, you would like to prep a starter and a hot backup; and use the third QB to run the scout team in a fashion that the Defense does get some valid practice time. Hence the usual situation is teams carry three QBs. Otherwise you can run the risk and wear out the QBs arms.

In this draft, BB was much more concerned with rebuilding the few positions remaining that needed reconstruction, which were specifically the offensive line and the RBs. Yes, 'few positions' is what I said, and what I meant. Poor clubs don't go and produce the best record in the league at 14-2.

If Mallett had not unexpectedly fallen into his arms, I fully expected BB to take Alabama's heady and poised Gregory in the fifth or sixth round, as there was an opening at that position too.:snob:

The D line is deep and young; and the OLBs, like the ILBs last season, are ready to round into an acceptable crew, that experience will only improve. The Defense which ended up as the 8th stingiest in the League, will start there, and improve even more, with the addition of two starting quality CBs, an ILB, and a starting DE or two.

The highest scoring Offense in the League has been significantly augmented with a pair of offensive line studs, and a couple of more RBs.

RE: bolded text - that's a very good point.

 

[supafly]

The highest scoring Offense in the League has been significantly augmented with a pair of offensive line studs, and a couple of more RBs.

Couple that with the choosing and development of the TE's last yr, and you now have a reloaded offense with additions at TE, OL, RB, and now even QB.

That adds up to a very positive future for this offense, and was quite brilliant of the coach and front office.

I certainly agree with your statements regarding the eventual gelling of the defense, and the optimism that we share from seeing the stretch run of last yr. There was no doubt that the offense needed addressing, as Belichick didn't feel that the potential learning curve of the DE/OLB conversion projects were the proper way to address what was pretty much our only real 'need,' in my opinion. Once everyone understands that aspect, they can likely come to terms with the lack of OLB pick.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Couple that with the choosing and development of the TE's last yr, and you now have a reloaded offense with additions at TE, OL, RB, and now even QB.

That adds up to a very positive future for this offense, and was quite brilliant of the coach and front office.

I certainly agree with your statements regarding the eventual gelling of the defense, and the optimism that we share from seeing the stretch run of last yr. There was no doubt that the offense needed addressing, as Belichick didn't feel that the potential learning curve of the DE/OLB conversion projects were the proper way to address what was pretty much our only real 'need,' in my opinion. Once everyone understands that aspect, they can likely come to terms with the lack of OLB pick.

I would add the rebuilding of the WR position two seasons ago and last year too. Specifically, Tate & Edelman and then Taylor Price last season, along with the trade acquisition of Deon Branch.

So BB has rebuilt the CBs, S, ILBs, OLBs, added youth and veterans to the DL, added three stud OLs, rebuilt TEs, WRs, RBs, and added depth at QB. He has even rebuilt the P and PK positions too.

All that remains, is fine tuning touches.

 

[JoeSixPat]

The bottom line is no one has a clue how Mallett will do. The fans and media talking heads simply like to talk like they know for sure one way or another so they have a 50/50 shot of saying "I told you so" one day.

The intriguing thing about Mallett is that we all know the raw materials are there. It's simply the fact that his ability to handle pressure - both on and off the field - is in question.

A low pressure situation for Mallett is best - it's why the Dolphins, with a high need at QB chose to pass on him even in the third, and why the Patriots with little need at QB, saw the value of the gamble.

I'm hoping it pays off and generate either a higher draft pick or a QB of the future - but there's so many unanswered questions - including Brady's health and abilities in several years - that it's pointless to have a staunch opinion one way or another today.

 

[EJ Blitz]

Given the amount of money he'll tie up, it's hard to suggest anyone other than Newton for overall impact. He's got an entire team's five year future tied up in his hands, for better or for worse.

lol, r.i.p Panthers.

 

[Ring 6]

No, it's pretty much an identical situation. The main differences are the increased stridency of the homer side and the increased timidity of the Chicken Little side.

Actually I couldnt think of many things that are more different than this.

Similarities:
1) Both were drafted in round 3
2) The negative posters on the board are complaining about both

Differences:
1) Brady was an 8 year vet then, and an 11 yr vet now. The 'grooming' factor is entirely different
2) In 2008 the Patriots were coming of an undefeated regular season where the only draft choice to make the team was their first rounder, had very little defection, were a veteran team, and seemingly had little room on the roster. In 2011 the Patriots were the youngest in the BB era, were coming off a year where more draft picks than ever made the team and contributed (7th round pick stated, UDFAs played decent roles). THe chance of a 3rd round pick making the team and contributed heavily was night and day, and therefore the logic of a 'developmental' pick was totally different.
3) Mallett and Oconnell couldn't be much different players. Mallett has an unquestionable arm. An ESPN guy (Mort?) said before the draft that Mallett would walk into the NFL with one of the top 10 arms in the league. OConnells arm was not unquestionable. OConnell was an inaccurate, athletic QB in college who played against lesser competition on a bad team. Mallett played against the toughest competition in college, played well and led his team to a good record, while being as 'NFL ready' as a college QB can be.
4) Mallett and OConnell couldn't be much different in how their personalities and off the field life affected their draft status. Mallett was unquestionably a top 10 pick based on his ability and play on the field who slid because of personal issues. BB had his rated as the #1 QB in the draft. OConnell was under the radar and his draft status was elevated above his basic skills and on field performance by a good attitude, smarts, and the belief that he was held back by being on a poor team.
So the ability of the players, the non-ability considerations of the players, the condition of the team, and the shape of the position are almost polar opposites, and you are saying they are pretty much IDENTICAL.
You are even more wrong here than you were in your Kaczur won the job while stretching on the first day of practice and teams haven't made decisions based on the salary cap for years comments.
Please explain this one.