Maturation of Julian Edelman

[TheBostonStraggler]

He won't command the welker or amendola money IMO. I am pretty sure we can retain him at a decent price. He has special teams value also.

Agreed. While his numbers are very very good this year, that's only one year of top flight service with relatively nothing else numbers wise. Further, his injury reputation is (or was?) prominent. Plus his market value/demand will be TB (and BB scheme) discounted(??). The belief, true or not, his numbers are very inflated due to playing for the Patriots.
Given that I'll be shocked if he is offered a 5m a year, multi year offer from anyone. Now arguably he is worth that to the Patriots with the kind of WR/ST production he has given. However, business is business and he has to be paid based on his market value using the least possible amount of cap.

IMHO JE should make a point to re-sign with the Patriots. Ideally for him it's a 2 year deal with as much guaranteed money as possible. It gives him the opportunity for 2 more years with Brady, 2 more years of big time numbers, then puts him into FA before age 30, generally low mileage for a 29 year old, solid track record of production. It's probably his best shot at the bigger multiyear contract. And unless another team really wows him/his agent with an offer, JE would be crazy to not re-sign with the Patriots in the near term.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Not expecting a remarkable breakout exceeding anything he had ever done before is hardly throwing dirt on him.

I remember saying 2 yrs ago he was a cheaper replacement for Welker, and he is, it was easy to assume he could catch 100 short throws from Brady. What Welker did wasn't groundbreaking, he isn't a top receiver and very replaceable.

You always seemed to think that was insane, so I just have to laugh now that he is putting in the same 100/1000 type numbers for less money. I saw it in 2009, and never considered Welker a loss, Hernandez was the real loss.

Does any Welker supporter here think we are more explosive with Welker and Edelman on the bench? Seems like he wouldn't change anything.

 

[Ivan]

I'm not sure why so many are writing off a good sized deal for Edelman, if anything the NFL has shown over the past few years, and longer, that teams will lavish money on young players with a high talent ceiling, and that's Edelman. he's not going to get the money Mike Wallace or percy Harvin got because he is not perceived as a home run threat but Amendola money is certainly within reason for him, especially when ST value is included. I can see teams like the Colts, Falcons, and Cardinals wanting a slot guy who can move the chains to supplement their receiving corps and giving him 25 for 5 etc........


I want him back but i definitely think there is going to be serious competition for him this time around. The patriots were mistaken not to try and get him for at least 3 years when his value was lower. I understand the durability concerns but that could have been addressed the same way it was with Vollmer.

 

[Ring 6]

I remember saying 2 yrs ago he was a cheaper replacement for Welker, and he is, it was easy to assume he could catch 100 short throws from Brady. What Welker did wasn't groundbreaking, he isn't a top receiver and very replaceable.

You always seemed to think that was insane, so I just have to laugh now that he is putting in the same 100/1000 type numbers for less money. I saw it in 2009, and never considered Welker a loss, Hernandez was the real loss.

Does any Welker supporter here think we are more explosive with Welker and Edelman on the bench? Seems like he wouldn't change anything.

Based on everything he had done on the field to date, it was insane to think he would turn into this player. Obviously BB agreed as he gave Edelman the opportunity to walk before giving him a puny contract offer.
Edelman exceeded every reasonable expectation this year. Guessing it would happen with no real evidence to support it is not genius, its good luck.
Also, Edelman has not replaced Welker, other than replacing a pretty good portion of his production. He is playing a different role, in a different, and not as good offense.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not sure why so many are writing off a good sized deal for Edelman, if anything the NFL has shown over the past few years, and longer, that teams will lavish money on young players with a high talent ceiling, and that's Edelman. he's not going to get the money Mike Wallace or percy Harvin got because he is not perceived as a home run threat but Amendola money is certainly within reason for him, especially when ST value is included. I can see teams like the Colts, Falcons, and Cardinals wanting a slot guy who can move the chains to supplement their receiving corps and giving him 25 for 5 etc........


I want him back but i definitely think there is going to be serious competition for him this time around. The patriots were mistaken not to try and get him for at least 3 years when his value was lower. I understand the durability concerns but that could have been addressed the same way it was with Vollmer.

I'm not sure I can read the minds of GMs, but my perception here, as compared to Amendola is this:
Amendola was viewed as a high potential guy who was held back by injuries, but more by playing on a bad team with a bad offense and a bad QB.
Edelman will be viewed as a next man up who wasn't productive for years then got plugged in and put up good numbers because of Tom Brady.
Could be wrong, but I hope I am not, because I'd like to see the price held down so we can keep him.

 

[A man named Brady]

Tom lost welker then he made another welker.

He's in line for 100 catches,1000 yards and about the same number of TD's that welker averaged here

 

[Ivan]

I'm not sure I can read the minds of GMs, but my perception here, as compared to Amendola is this:
Amendola was viewed as a high potential guy who was held back by injuries, but more by playing on a bad team with a bad offense and a bad QB.
Edelman will be viewed as a next man up who wasn't productive for years then got plugged in and put up good numbers because of Tom Brady.
Could be wrong, but I hope I am not, because I'd like to see the price held down so we can keep him.

I think the reason for teams not showing that much interest was both his durability concerns and a lack of real production to date, however this season has changed that as he has been highly productive and durable, so I would guess his market value has gone way up. he will still be tagged with the same caveat, that he is a creation of Brady, just as Welker was, but that is as unfair to him as it was to Welker. If the offers are competitive then i think he will stay in NE because he knows what he has here and knows he can continue to produce and develop in this system, but if he is getting a good long term deal elsewhere and just a 2 year 5 million offer etc... here then he's gone. I would pay him because i think he is really valuable for the Patriots, as Belichick has said he can play outside or inside and if Amendola were to go down again next season then they are already covered. He has gone way beyond my expectations this season, i had him at around 60-70 REC and 800 yards, but more than that he has shown that he can be the go to guy when the game is on the line and opposing teams are trying to stop him as a primary option, and that is something i felt he really needed to show to take the next step as a player.


I would go 5-25 for him but I doubt they will, and my track record in that regard isn't that good as i am always willing to pay more than the patriots are. However i think he is worth it and he would continue to produce for them if they paid him and he would be a really valuable part of this team.

 

[Ivan]

Tom lost welker then he made another welker.

He's in line for 100 catches,1000 yards and about the same number of TD's that welker averaged here

Obviously Brady makes all those around him better but the idea that he actually creates these guys is crap, they have to work their asses off to turn themselves into really good really productive players, and the idea than anyone can do it is pure folly.

 

[PatsFan2]

I'm not sure why so many are writing off a good sized deal for Edelman, if anything the NFL has shown over the past few years, and longer, that teams will lavish money on young players with a high talent ceiling, and that's Edelman. he's not going to get the money Mike Wallace or percy Harvin got because he is not perceived as a home run threat but Amendola money is certainly within reason for him, especially when ST value is included. I can see teams like the Colts, Falcons, and Cardinals wanting a slot guy who can move the chains to supplement their receiving corps and giving him 25 for 5 etc........


I want him back but i definitely think there is going to be serious competition for him this time around. The patriots were mistaken not to try and get him for at least 3 years when his value was lower. I understand the durability concerns but that could have been addressed the same way it was with Vollmer.

I agree with this: Edelman's ST's value will drive up his price because if you are a GM you know you are getting a Football Player. A Guy can do more than one thing I think Edelman is just scratching the surface and have some upside. I think the Pats can rework some contracts and retain him. It has taken this Team years to develop young capable WR's after a barrage of Busts. I would not want to let this one slip away knowing how good we are in managing the Cap.

 

[Ring 6]

Tom lost welker then he made another welker.

He's in line for 100 catches,1000 yards and about the same number of TD's that welker averaged here

Welker produced more than that.
In his last 2 seasons he averaged 120 for 1461 which is 20-46% more than 100/1000.
Excluding 2010 when he clearly wasn't right recovering from the knee injury he averaged 117/1322.

Again, I will be accused of bashing Edelman for not calling him the greatest, mightiest ever, but his numbers are closer to what Brandon Lloyd put up last year than what Welker did,

 

[Ring 6]

I think the reason for teams not showing that much interest was both his durability concerns and a lack of real production to date, however this season has changed that as he has been highly productive and durable, so I would guess his market value has gone way up. he will still be tagged with the same caveat, that he is a creation of Brady, just as Welker was, but that is as unfair to him as it was to Welker. If the offers are competitive then i think he will stay in NE because he knows what he has here and knows he can continue to produce and develop in this system, but if he is getting a good long term deal elsewhere and just a 2 year 5 million offer etc... here then he's gone. I would pay him because i think he is really valuable for the Patriots, as Belichick has said he can play outside or inside and if Amendola were to go down again next season then they are already covered. He has gone way beyond my expectations this season, i had him at around 60-70 REC and 800 yards, but more than that he has shown that he can be the go to guy when the game is on the line and opposing teams are trying to stop him as a primary option, and that is something i felt he really needed to show to take the next step as a player.


I would go 5-25 for him but I doubt they will, and my track record in that regard isn't that good as i am always willing to pay more than the patriots are. However i think he is worth it and he would continue to produce for them if they paid him and he would be a really valuable part of this team.

We do not know if BB sees him as the guy plugged into the system that got the production that goes with being plugged in. Thats not an Edelman criticism but a factor that he always has to consider, such as when he let BJGE walk after a good season.
If Brandon Lloyd hadn't fallen down after a lot of catches people would have thought we needed to bring him back because of his production and we know now he was viewed as a receptacle of production that needed somewhere to go.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Welker produced more than that.
In his last 2 seasons he averaged 120 for 1461 which is 20-46% more than 100/1000.
Excluding 2010 when he clearly wasn't right recovering from the knee injury he averaged 117/1322.

Again, I will be accused of bashing Edelman for not calling him the greatest, mightiest ever, but his numbers are closer to what Brandon Lloyd put up last year than what Welker did,

Welker had Moss and Gronk/Hernandez across from him....

Welker's first two years: 112 1,170 6 TDs

Julian's first year starting (projected): 103 1,057 6 TDs

I just disagree he's closer to Lloyd. He's going to beat Lloyd in receptions, yards, and TDs soundly.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

Mightytron!

 

[Ring 6]

Welker had Moss and Gronk/Hernandez across from him....

Welker's first two years: 112 1,170 6 TDs

Julian's first year starting (projected): 103 1,057 6 TDs

I just disagree he's closer to Lloyd. He's going to beat Lloyd in receptions, yards, and TDs soundly.

His production is closer to Lloyds last year than Welker. Thats not a judgment its a fact.
I did not say he is closer to Lloyd as a player.

Welkers #s were better after Moss, and last years #s had about as much Gronk as Edelman did this year, and Edelmans #s were better without Gronk.

I don't think who else is on the field is a very good gauge to compare numbers.

 

[patsinthesnow]

His production is closer to Lloyds last year than Welker. Thats not a judgment its a fact.
I did not say he is closer to Lloyd as a player.

Welkers #s were better after Moss, and last years #s had about as much Gronk as Edelman did this year, and Edelmans #s were better without Gronk.

I don't think who else is on the field is a very good gauge to compare numbers.

Why is it fair to compare Welker's last two years than his first two years though? Edelman hasn't had one TC/offseason to work as a starting WR.

Welker's first two years as a Patriot are only slightly better than Edelman's year this year.

I was skeptical of Edelman the last two offseasons, but he has completely blown the Patriots away. He's only the third player in franchise history to catch 100 passes in a season. With a whole offseason to work with the starting unit, who knows how much better he can get.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Very impressive indeed! the true heir of Wes Welker.He just needs to make some clutch playoff catch, something his predecessor wasn't able to do.

 

[Jackson 2]

Very impressive indeed! the true heir of Wes Welker.He just needs to make some clutch playoff catch, something his predecessor wasn't able to do.

He actually already did it against Baltimore in 2010 when he had 6 catches for 44 yards and 2 TDs as Welker's replacement.

 

[Ring 6]

Why is it fair to compare Welker's last two years than his first two years though? Edelman hasn't had one TC/offseason to work as a starting WR.

I compared all of his years, except the one he clearly was limited by injury. Of course the 2 most recent are more applicable because the surrounding team is most similar, the OC the same, and the inflated passing stats in the NFL in tact.

Welker's first two years as a Patriot are only slightly better than Edelman's year this year.

And those we with Moss and as part of a record setting offense and with Matt Cassell at QB. I dont think they compare evenly.

I was skeptical of Edelman the last two offseasons, but he has completely blown the Patriots away. He's only the third player in franchise history to catch 100 passes in a season. With a whole offseason to work with the starting unit, who knows how much better he can get.

Hopefully he continues to get better.
I think that you and I view number of receptions a little differently too.

 

[LasVegasPatsFan]

Catching 94 balls and close to 1000 yards while playing along side 3 rookie WR's and 2 JAG TE's speaks volume. I hope the Pats find a way to keep him. We lost a Welker this year, hate to lose another next year

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

Julian "Leatherman" is helping the Pats win games, very much so. He has been a very good player for this team from the beginning. BB saw, a lot of us saw it. And it's coming to fruition. I was always puzzled by the lack of respect he got here. I'm glad he finally got an opportunity to show his full potential.