The more I watch, the more it seems that New England and Indy are in a world of their own, and no AFC team could hope to match up against them (in a big game especially). Only Pittsburgh and San Diego come close, but considering their recent form, even SD is out of the equation.
Baltimore is Baltimore. On paper they are good, but on the field they have too many stars without enough team chemistry and their offense is horrendously inconsistent.
Denver is always a threat, but this year, Shannahan has allowed the D-line to get too thin and the entire defense is suffering immensly. Cutler still needs time to develop as well.
Jacksonville, like Baltimore, can have some amazing games, followed by some horrible performances. And their passing game is very questionable.
Tennessee, I think, is not a contender yet. Vince Young needs to improve. The running game needs to improve. Jeff Fisher has worked wonders with what he has, but the team just doesnt have enough talent or experience to be contenders.
Oakland, despite their record, have way too many question marks. Their running game should be fantastic and their defense is good, but a great D can stop Lamont Jordan and Manning/Brady are good enough to pick apart that defense.
So whats left? Cincy is out of the question until proven otherwise. The Jets have fallen off. Houston still needs some help at RB and on defense.
That leaves Indy and NE as the only true contenders, with Pitts close behind, and San Diego following them if they can get their act together. No real parity in the AFC.