Kiper: Regrading the 2009 NFL draft

[mgteich]

I think that evaluating picks in retrospect is an interesting exercise, even after only one season. I like patchicks idea of using draft value. We can question what our draftees are worth in "draft points" and how well we really did on the value of our picks. For example, I would think Vollmer is a worth the #7 draft pick or 1500 points.

Vollmer 7 1500 320
Butler 41 490 490
Chung 66 260 560
Brace 100 100 500
total 2350 1870

This difference is the value of 480 is like getting Butler for free.
=============================================
MY BOTTOM LINE AND EARLY GUESS AT VALUE
Vollmer is a worth a top 10 pick.
Butler is worth what we paid, a high second.
Chung is worth a high 3rd.
Brace is worth a high 4th.

Even if Brace and Chung are total busts, we still would have gotten better than reasonable value for our first four picks. I am not in way giving up on Brace and Chung. They are good players and solid prospects. However, at the time and in retrospect after almost a season, I think that we overpaid.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think that evaluating picks in retrospect is an interesting exercise, even after only one season. I like patchicks idea of using draft value. We can question what our draftees are worth in "draft points" and how well we really did on the value of our picks. For example, I would think Vollmer is a worth the #7 draft pick or 1500 points.

Vollmer 7 1500 320
Butler 41 490 490
Chung 66 260 560
Brace 100 100 500
total 2350 1870

This difference is the value of 480 is like getting Butler for free.
=============================================
MY BOTTOM LINE AND EARLY GUESS AT VALUE
Vollmer is a worth a top 10 pick.
Butler is worth what we paid, a high second.
Chung is worth a high 3rd.
Brace is worth a high 4th.

Even if Brace and Chung are total busts, we still would have gotten better than reasonable value for our first four picks. I am not in way giving up on Brace and Chung. They are good players and solid prospects. However, at the time and in retrospect after almost a season, I think that we overpaid.

Nice exercise.

I have slightly different values than yours.

- I think 1500 points for the #7 pick is fair for Vollmer given how he's performed. I can't think of 6 guys I'd rather have, but I think it's certainly fair to say that if either Andre Smith (#6) or Eugene Monroe (#8) had performed at Vollmer's level that they would have been considered huge successes as rookies.

- I think Darius Butler would have been good value at #34, where Chung was taken. So I'd value him at 560 points. I don't think anyone would have complained if we had taken him there, or about his development.

- I think Pat Chung is good value as a late 2nd round pick, but #34 was too high. William Moore went #55 to Atlanta, and I think Chung would have been a steal there. So I'd give him 350 points and consider it conservative. Sean Smith went 61. 66 is too low for Chung.

- I think Ron Brace can't be evaluated based on his rookie performance. I think we overpaid at #40, but he was a legitimate late 2nd/early 3rd round pick. I would conservative rate him at the #68 pick which the Bears used to draft Jarron Gilbert, around 250 points.

So I come up with 2660 points, or +790, about the value of the #21-22 pick. Not bad.

 

[gomezcat]

Re Brace: I think it's worth remembering that Wilfork struggled for the first year and a half when he came to New England. I remember him being dominated at times. I believe they changed that by moving him back off the LOS by a foot or so (from memory). Brace is learning a new technique and it will take him time to "get it".

As for Vollmer, there's nothing more to add. When we did the mock draft in April, someone took him in the 5th and I remember thinking, "who the heck is he?". No one else had even heard of him. Kudos to Dante for his work in getting him to New England because he looks like he could be very, very good. I noticed on the workout vid that he looks to have practically no fat on him so presumably he can put on more weight and still be mobile.

As for Butler, I think he's done OK, considering how bad the pass rush has been at times. Chung may have difficulty breaking the line-up in the future ahead of Sanders or Meriweather. We'll see.

I thought the Pats drafted well. The dire need for a pass rusher is still there, though.

 

[mgteich]

By the time the second round was over, Belichick already had a great draft, even if every pick after that was a bust. He was more "ahead" than the whole value of the rest of the draft. But let's see how we did on the 2nd and 3rd phases of the draft.

PHASE 2 - ROUNDS 3 - 5
Tate, McKenzie, Ohrnberger and Bussey

We had four picks, with a total value of 286, approximately the value of a late second. I suspect that ONE of these four will work out to be worth that value, even if the rest are busts. One hit out of four is enough for reasonable success in these rounds. So far, none has contributed. All are question marks now as they were at the time they were drafted.

PHASE 3 - ROUNDS 6 and 7
Ingram. Pryor, Edelman, and Richard

These are the throwaway picks. The total value is that of a late fifth. Any contributer is a bonus and by definition a great value. It is fine place to find special teamers like Ingram. I think that the league greatly undervalues these special teamers. To me, a good snapper, punter or kicker is a steal for a 6th or 7th since otherwise these picks are not likely to make the team.

That being said, Belichick did EXTREMELY well this year in this part of the draft. I suspect that this group of four could be as valuable as that group of four drafted in Rounds 3-5. Obviously, this has been the case so far. THREE solid contributers in this part of the draft in one year is AWESOME!

BONUS TIME
Belichick signed Hoyer and Lockett, two rookies who made the team as UDFA's.

BOTTOM LINE
This draft is even better than it looks at first glance. There have been no failures. All the players are still with the team. We have 14 players who have contributed or who are possible future contributers.

Nice exercise.

I have slightly different values than yours.

- I think 1500 points for the #7 pick is fair for Vollmer given how he's performed. I can't think of 6 guys I'd rather have, but I think it's certainly fair to say that if either Andre Smith (#6) or Eugene Monroe (#8) had performed at Vollmer's level that they would have been considered huge successes as rookies.

- I think Darius Butler would have been good value at #34, where Chung was taken. So I'd value him at 560 points. I don't think anyone would have complained if we had taken him there, or about his development.

- I think Pat Chung is good value as a late 2nd round pick, but #34 was too high. William Moore went #55 to Atlanta, and I think Chung would have been a steal there. So I'd give him 350 points and consider it conservative. Sean Smith went 61. 66 is too low for Chung.

- I think Ron Brace can't be evaluated based on his rookie performance. I think we overpaid at #40, but he was a legitimate late 2nd/early 3rd round pick. I would conservative rate him at the #68 pick which the Bears used to draft Jarron Gilbert, around 250 points.

So I come up with 2660 points, or +790, about the value of the #21-22 pick. Not bad.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't catch x's and o's or schemes but i notice things like Vollmers agility. It looks like he played a lot of soccer when he was younger.

He swam.

...

 

[MVPatsfan13]

He swam.

...

& played soccer(but probably just till 14, when he started to play football). His cardio system must be great for a guy that size