Kiper: Regrading the 2009 NFL draft

[mgteich]

If Matthews wasn't good enough, with his background and special team skills, the standard is mighty high for Belichick.

Exactly! Draft and develop! Start a pipeline and let these pass rushers play ST until they are ready to step into the base defense.

If BB needs to see film of a potential pass rusher, rushing the passer, setting the edge on runing plays and dropping into coverage; then send him all the tapes of the Clemson games and have him watch Sapp.

 

[carolinatony]

If BB needs to see film of a potential pass rusher, rushing the passer, setting the edge on runing plays and dropping into coverage; then send him all the tapes of the Clemson games and have him watch Sapp.


I have seen him play a few times and would love for us to grab him and another pass rusher. Grab a OL/WR and go from there.
We have TOO many picks this year not to get a couple pass-rusher.

 

[carolinatony]

Grab Sapp and that Greg Hardy fellow and I belive we would have a nice draft!

 

[patchick]

If the 2009 draft were redone right now, how many players would you take over Sebastian Vollmer?

 

[captain stone]

If the 2009 draft were redone right now, how many players would you take over Sebastian Vollmer?

Butler, Barwin/Sintim, and Chung. SeaBass might even have lasted until the pick used for Tate, and possibly the one for McKenzie, too.

The draft, in addition to being the process of identifying talent, is also a bit of a poker game: you need to know when to hold 'em (i.e., wait until your next pick) and when to fold 'em (take the guy now). I feel that Bill folds 'em too quickly, too often.

 

[patchick]

Butler, Barwin/Sintim, and Chung. SeaBass might even have lasted until the pick used for Tate, and possibly the one for McKenzie, too.

The draft, in addition to being the process of identifying talent, is also a bit of a poker game: you need to know when to hold 'em (i.e., wait until your next pick) and when to fold 'em (take the guy now). I feel that Bill folds 'em too quickly, too often.

Cap'n, you're answering a totally different question.

Very simply, imagine the draft were reheld today, so every team has seen the rookies through their first season. You're making your top to bottom sort. How many players would you rank above/take instead of Sebastian Vollmer for the Patriots, and who are they?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If the 2009 draft were redone right now, how many players would you take over Sebastian Vollmer?

Not many that is for sure. Although there were two DE/OLB's from USC that I would not have minded seeing in a Patriots uniform.

I do not think Vollmer is right for every O line scheme, but I do think he is perfect for our zone blocking scheme. Great call by BB.

I think Hix from Texas is another OT from a zone blocking scheme that plays a lot like Vollmer. If Hix passes the Alabama acid test on Jan 7 with very high grades, maybe he will declare.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If Matthews wasn't good enough, with his background and special team skills, the standard is mighty high for Belichick.

Is the standard high or is BB's expectation of a rookie playing in that position so low that he can not gamble putting a rookie out there at that position?

 

[mgteich]

As with Brace, the rookie would only have to have played special teams, if he couldn't beat out Ninkovich and Woods for reps.

Is the standard high or is BB's expectation of a rookie playing in that position so low that he can not gamble putting a rookie out there at that position?

 

[patchick]

If Matthews wasn't good enough, with his background and special team skills, the standard is mighty high for Belichick.

It's easy enough to explain away any one player. E.g. Matthews wasn't an impact player in college and might well have seemed risky/poor value for a 1st-round pick. It's passing on ALL of them, of every description, that left me utterly baffled.

 

[mgteich]

I wanted Matthews. I did not have any other DE/OLB available to us rated as a stud or of reasonable value in our system. Most posters wanted a Barwin, a very raw developmental pick. Sintim was my choice over Barwin, but he hardly projected as a stud. Cushing, Orapko and even Ayers were long gone at 23. Who did you have in mind when you posted about "ALL of them"? Everette Brown was available, but didn't seem to fit.

With regard to other linebackers, I certainly wanted to draft Luarinitis, but obviously Belichick liked what he had in Mayo and Guyton and chose to wait a bit until drafted his developmental ILB.

It's easy enough to explain away any one player. E.g. Matthews wasn't an impact player in college and might well have seemed risky/poor value for a 1st-round pick. It's passing on ALL of them, of every description, that left me utterly baffled.

 

[patchick]

I wanted Matthews. I did not have any other DE/OLB available to us rated as a stud or of reasonable value in our system. Most posters wanted a Barwin, a very raw developmental pick. Sintim was my choice over Barwin, but he hardly projected as a stud. Cushing, Orapko and even Ayers were long gone at 23. Who did you have in mind when you posted about "ALL of them"? Everette Brown was available, but didn't seem to fit.

Really? I thought Everette Brown, not Matthews, was your target and you felt Brown was worth trading up from 23 for:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/230246-mgs-day-one-draft-board.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/228983-player-you-would-trade-up.html
Regardless, here are some DE/OLB prospects with a variety of strengths and weaknesses who were coveted by some board members and were available from #23 on:
Matthews
E. Brown
Sintim
Barwin
Kruger
C. Brown
M. Johnson
Sidbury
The fact that the Pats passed on ALL of them, given their apparent roster need, leaves us all grasping for answers. Some have concluded that Belichick doesn't think it's a position for rookies. Others have jumped on the Will-Smith-Big-Guy theory. Still others are convinced BB thought he had Jason Taylor wrapped up, or just that he's an arrogant fool. Personally, I have no clue.

 

[mayoclinic]

Really? I thought Everette Brown, not Matthews, was your target and you felt Brown was worth trading up from 23 for:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/230246-mgs-day-one-draft-board.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/228983-player-you-would-trade-up.html
Regardless, here are some DE/OLB prospects with a variety of strengths and weaknesses who were coveted by some board members and were available from #23 on:
Matthews
E. Brown
Sintim
Barwin
Kruger
C. Brown
M. Johnson
Sidbury
The fact that the Pats passed on ALL of them, given their apparent roster need, leaves us all grasping for answers. Some have concluded that Belichick doesn't think it's a position for rookies. Others have jumped on the Will-Smith-Big-Guy theory. Still others are convinced BB thought he had Jason Taylor wrapped up, or just that he's an arrogant fool. Personally, I have no clue.

Here's another link regarding Everette Brown as a DE/OLB conversion:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england.../13/228273-how-much-everret-brown-worth.html

Everette Brown was considered a possible top 10 pick when he declared last year, and fell to Carolina at #43. Many people on this board thought he was worth trading up for, despite the fact that he was 6'1" and an undersized DE who really had no experience playing in space. The idea a year ago that Clay Matthews would go higher in the draft than Everette Brown would have been considered ludicrous by most.

It's funny how everyone now says they were high on Clay Matthews, isn't it? I like Matthews, but had huge reservations about his frame (and his ability to take on blockers). He's surprised me with how well he's done in GB, but I still don't think he was a great fit for the Pats.

But, as you say, BB passed on everyone. At this point, I would settle for anyone. I've identified 21 potential DE/OLB prospects in the 2010 draft who grade out between rounds 1 and 5. It would be nice to see BB take at least one of them.

 

[carolinatony]

Regardless, here are some DE/OLB prospects with a variety of strengths and weaknesses who were coveted by some board members and were available from #23 on:
Matthews
E. Brown
Sintim
Barwin
Kruger
C. Brown
M. Johnson
Sidbury
The fact that the Pats passed on ALL of them, given their apparent roster need, leaves us all grasping for answers. Some have concluded that Belichick doesn't think it's a position for rookies. Others have jumped on the Will-Smith-Big-Guy theory. Still others are convinced BB thought he had Jason Taylor wrapped up, or just that he's an arrogant fool. Personally, I have no clue.



There is nobody here who can understand why BB did not address this last year. Most of us here Believe he will take some kind of Pass Rusher or two this draft.

It would not shock me if he did not and went TE(strange pick since we don't use our TE) DB,OL,WR,and elsewhere.
Since he has won 3 SB's, what can we really do except say Huh?

 

[mgteich]

At one time, I did indeed want Everette Brown. You all convinced me of the error of my ways.

Then, as now, the list you give wasn't exactly projected to be a set of studs. Most were projects.

In any case, we posters seem value some OLB's much higher than Belichick. In the alternative, we value the need much higher than he does.

Really? I thought Everette Brown, not Matthews, was your target and you felt Brown was worth trading up from 23 for:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/230246-mgs-day-one-draft-board.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/228983-player-you-would-trade-up.html
Regardless, here are some DE/OLB prospects with a variety of strengths and weaknesses who were coveted by some board members and were available from #23 on:
Matthews
E. Brown
Sintim
Barwin
Kruger
C. Brown
M. Johnson
Sidbury
The fact that the Pats passed on ALL of them, given their apparent roster need, leaves us all grasping for answers. Some have concluded that Belichick doesn't think it's a position for rookies. Others have jumped on the Will-Smith-Big-Guy theory. Still others are convinced BB thought he had Jason Taylor wrapped up, or just that he's an arrogant fool. Personally, I have no clue.

 

[patchick]

At one time, I did indeed want Everette Brown. You all convinced me of the error of my ways.

If only you'd managed to talk us all out of Barwin, think how many sleepless nights would have been saved!

Then, as now, the list you give wasn't exactly projected to be a set of studs. Most were projects.

In any case, we posters seem value some OLB's much higher than Belichick. In the alternative, we value the need much higher than he does.

Yep, I should add those two straightforward possibilities to my list of "ways we're explaining this to ourselves." At the same time, the Burgess trade and the pursuit of Taylor do suggest that he wasn't content with his pass rush weapons, deepening the grand mystery of it all.

 

[mgteich]

Perhaps if we set the bar low enough, Belichick will meet our expectations in drafting linebackers in the 2010 draft.

.But, as you say, BB passed on everyone. At this point, I would settle for anyone. I've identified 21 potential DE/OLB prospects in the 2010 draft who grade out between rounds 1 and 5. It would be nice to see BB take at least one of them.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yep, I should add those two straightforward possibilities to my list of "ways we're explaining this to ourselves." At the same time, the Burgess trade and the pursuit of Taylor do suggest that he wasn't content with his pass rush weapons, deepening the grand mystery of it all.

McKenzie getting hurt in rookie minicamp didn't help matters, although I doubt he could have been the entire solution, either.

Then again, as I've said before, I've given up trying to understand BB and drafting LBs (as Gary Guyton asked him, "Why did you draft Bo Ruud instead of me?").

 

[mayoclinic]

Then, as now, the list you give wasn't exactly projected to be a set of studs. Most were projects.

I'm not sure how you define "stud" and "project". I don't think anyone expected Clay Matthews to step in and record double digit sacks as a rookie, or for Brian Orapko and Brian Cushing to make the pro bowl as rookie LBs. Certainly this time last year more people would have projected Everette Brown to be a "stud" than Matthews.

Most of the prospects for 2010 are "projects", if you mean players that can't realistically be expected to step in to the Pats' system and produce from day 1 on a veteran level. I would expect Jason Pierre-Paul, Carlos Dunlap, Von Miller, Sergio Kindle, Greg Hardy, Jerry Hughes, Von Miller, Greg Romeus, Austen Lane, Jeremy Beal, Ricky Sapp and Brandon Graham to all take time to adjust to the Pats defense, and wouldn't expect major production from any of them as rookies. Perhaps we might be pleasantly surprised, but the odds are against it. I would also expect that at least 2-3 of those guys (and it will be a crap shoot as to which ones those will be) will be impact players for whatever team drafts them, and that a year from now people on this board will be bemoaning why the Pats didn't draft that guy, as if their production for the Pats would have been instantaneous and the same as for some other team.

Willie McGinest was certainly a "stud" when we drafted him in 1994, but he produced only 4.5 sacks his rookie year. Connor Barwin has had 3.5 sacks as a backup so far this year, more than any Pats rookie since Tedy Bruschi had a whopping 4.0 sacks in 1996 (after setting NCAA records in college). Mike Vrabel only produced 3 sacks for us in 2001 and 4.5 in 2002, his first 2 years at OLB, and that was after 4 years in the NFL (during which time he had a whopping 7 sacks total, despite holding the Ohio St. sack record when he was drafted). You'd have to go back to Chris Slade in 1993 (9 sacks) for a rookie who made a major contribution as a pass rusher.

What exactly do you expect for rookie production for a "stud" vs. a "project"?

 

[captain stone]

Cap'n, you're answering a totally different question.

Very simply, imagine the draft were reheld today, so every team has seen the rookies through their first season. You're making your top to bottom sort. How many players would you rank above/take instead of Sebastian Vollmer for the Patriots, and who are they?

You're right, that is a totally different question, and a good one, too.

Off the top of my head, and not investigating factors such as injury, position depth on the draftee's team, etc., I would guess that SeaBass would have to be taken with the pick used for Chung (#34) in order to secure his services. This is ass-uming that Bill still trades down from 23 & 26.

One advantage of a draft rewind is that I would, again, ass-ume that Bill would stay clear of Brace and select either Barwin, Sintim or Everette Brown instead.

And I agree with you re: Jason the Traitor Taylor. Unless told otherwise, I believe that Bill thought he had him all but signed; it would not have surprised me to learn that he had already contacted Mike Wright about switching uniform #s.