Kiper: Regrading the 2009 NFL draft

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Unlike most people, I like Kiper. But I have to disagree with his grade. I don't think their draft was very good because there still isn't any impact players on defense. I fear that Chung is going to be an epic bust and I expected more out of Butler. In fact, Butler better step up like Mike Jenkins has with the Cowboys and be a solid starting CB in year two. Remember, this guy had a 1st round grade. I don't expect much out of Ron Brace as we will be reminiscing about how the Pats wasted another high 2nd round pick. Ditto with Tate and McKenzie after tearing their ACL's. It's possible to recover from that injury, but it's difficult to regain your prior playing form. Shawne Merriman is just one example.

Although Vollmer might be their biggest reach, he's the Pats best pick. Pryor had early success, but has faded out lately. Edelman will be a solid receiver when he learns the offense and realizes where the first down markers are when he catches the ball. He reminds me of Ricky Proehl. In the end, they still don't have a consistent pass rush and will be one of the major reasons why their season ends earlier than we expect.

 

[mgteich]

At the time of the draft, Curry, Orapko, Jackson, Matthews and Cushing were all considered studs by most. Other DE/OLB's chosen in the first 20 also included others we posters had considered: Maybin, English, and Ayers.

So seven were chosen in the top 20. Of those remaining at 23, only Matthews, Brown and Barwin were considered by anyone to be 1st round or close to 1st round value,

Brown was falling steadily and most had him out of the first round by draft day. His height and arm length were issues, as I recall.

Barwin was considered by most to be a developmental reach.

And then there was Matthews, who for whatever reason was unacceptable to Belichick at 23 or 26.
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WHAT SHOULD OUR STANDARD BE FOR A LINEBACKER DRAFTED IN THE TOP 50 PICKS?
I did expect that any linebacker who we drafted in the first 50 picks would get lots of reps in 2009.

I would expect a "stud" to be capable of starting, but not necessarily start depending on who the team had available. There are no guarantees, but all of the top 8 seemed to meet that criterion.

I don't think that we can fault Belichick too much for not taking the 8th of the 8 top linebacker prospects. There were clearly issues if Ayers and English were preferred over him.
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As you know, I was fine with the trade out of 23 and then 26 at the time, considering the value that we received. I was more surprised that we didn't draft a linebacker at 34 or 40.
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I'm not sure how you define "stud" and "project". I don't think anyone expected Clay Matthews to step in and record double digit sacks as a rookie, or for Brian Orapko and Brian Cushing to make the pro bowl as rookie LBs. Certainly this time last year more people would have projected Everette Brown to be a "stud" than Matthews.

What exactly do you expect for rookie production for a "stud" vs. a "project"?

 

[mayoclinic]

At the time of the draft, Curry, Orapko, Jackson, Matthews and Cushing were all considered studs by most. Other DE/OLB's chosen in the first 20 also included others we posters had considered: Maybin, English, and Ayers.

So seven were chosen in the top 20. Of those remaining at 23, only Matthews, Brown and Barwin were considered by anyone to be 1st round or close to 1st round value,

Brown was falling steadily and most had him out of the first round by draft day. His height and arm length were issues, as I recall.

Barwin was considered by most to be a developmental reach.

And then there was Matthews, who for whatever reason was unacceptable to Belichick at 23 or 26.
==================================================

WHAT SHOULD OUR STANDARD BE FOR A LINEBACKER DRAFTED IN THE TOP 50 PICKS?
I did expect that any linebacker who we drafted in the first 50 picks would get lots of reps in 2009.

I would expect a "stud" to be capable of starting, but not necessarily start depending on who the team had available. There are no guarantees, but all of the top 8 seemed to meet that criterion.

I don't think that we can fault Belichick too much for not taking the 8th of the 8 top linebacker prospects. There were clearly issues if Ayers and English were preferred over him.
=================================================
As you know, I was fine with the trade out of 23 and then 26 at the time, considering the value that we received. I was more surprised that we didn't draft a linebacker at 34 or 40.
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I'm not sure why you include Tyson Jackson in your list, as he was a 3-4 DE and not a DE/OLB prospect. But I grant that there were 6 DE/OLBs taken in the top 20 picks: Aaron Curry (4), Aaron Maybin (11), Brian Orapko (12), Brian Cushing (15), Larry English (16) and Robert Ayers (18). Of those 6 players, Ayers and Maybin have 0 sacks and Curry and Englsih have 2 each. Cushing has 4, but his value has been in his tackling and coverage. Only Orapko has been a "stud pash rushing OLB", and he was really considered a pure DE going into the draft by most.

4 other DE/OLB prospects went in the next 26 picks: Clay Matthews (26), Everette Brown (43), Clint Sintim (45), and Connor Barwin (46). All were expected to go in that range, possibly earlier. While Sintim may have lacked some of the athleticism and upside of the others, he was well regarded as a prospect and should probably be included. I don't think it would have been a shock if any of those 4 guys would have been picked in the late 1st round, or if any of them fell to first half of the 2nd round. I'm not sure Matthews was a consensus pick over the other guys as a top prospect. There were concerns that he had been a one year wonder at USC, that he had bulked up too quickly, etc. But, like you, I would have been happy if we had taken any of those guys somewhere in the 23-47 range.

I still firmly believe that Connor Barwin would be a "stud" OLB for us next year if we had drafted him instead of Ron Brace at #40. He probably would have contributed about as much as Derrick Burgess has done this year, but we would have had a long-term contributor at the position with the kind of size and speed that BB likes.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

If Matthews wasn't good enough, with his background and special team skills, the standard is mighty high for Belichick.

I don't get the Matthews hate. He is most def. a good player. Weird.

 

[patchick]

Off the top of my head, and not investigating factors such as injury, position depth on the draftee's team, etc., I would guess that SeaBass would have to be taken with the pick used for Chung (#34) in order to secure his services. This is ass-uming that Bill still trades down from 23 & 26.

Do you really think there's a chance Vollmer would still be around at #34 in a redraft?

Forget the strategic realities of the actual draft, this is a top-to-bottom sort. Starting at #1, you can take ANYBODY - Orapko, Stafford, what have you. And then you don't get to pick again for 32 more slots. How many players would you take ahead of Vollmer?

I ask, of course, because when I try it, the list of names comes out surprisingly short. A tackle with prototype size and athleticism who has the skills to start effectively at both RT and LT as a rookie is an extraordinarily valuable commodity.

 

[mayoclinic]

Do you really think there's a chance Vollmer would still be around at #34 in a redraft?

Forget the strategic realities of the actual draft, this is a top-to-bottom sort. Starting at #1, you can take ANYBODY - Orapko, Stafford, what have you. And then you don't get to pick again for 32 more slots. How many players would you take ahead of Vollmer?

I ask, of course, because when I try it, the list of names comes out surprisingly short. A tackle with prototype size and athleticism who has the skills to start effectively at both RT and LT as a rookie is an extraordinarily valuable commodity.

I believe that in a re-draft of 2005 done a year or two ago Logan Mankins went #7 overall. I think that within a year or so SeaBass will be one of the top 5-10 picks out of the entire 2009 draft - a franchise pro bowl caliber OT with the versatility to play either side equally well. I think he will be the best OT our of the 2009 class, and therefore one of the top overall players in the draft. Other than QB and DE, there's no other position with comparable value.

 

[BritPat]

Just as a FWIW, PFF.com has Vollmer as it's 4th ranked OT this year.

He'd have a chance of going first overall in a re-draft.

 

[mgteich]

Vollmer would certainly be a top 10 pick.

 

[patchick]

Just as a FWIW, PFF.com has Vollmer as it's 4th ranked OT this year.

He'd have a chance of going first overall in a re-draft.

I believe that in a re-draft of 2005 done a year or two ago Logan Mankins went #7 overall. I think that within a year or so SeaBass will be one of the top 5-10 picks out of the entire 2009 draft - a franchise pro bowl caliber OT with the versatility to play either side equally well. I think he will be the best OT our of the 2009 class, and therefore one of the top overall players in the draft. Other than QB and DE, there's no other position with comparable value.

This is my thinking too. The three real franchise positions in the contemporary NFL are QB, DE and LT. They're the top paid, and the only positions drafted #1 overall since the mid '90s. Three OTs were drafted in the top 10 in 2009; Vollmer has outplayed them all. If the draft were replayed I think Vollmer's a guaranteed top-10 pick, and likely at the high end of the range.

It seems to me that when you regrade a draft, you can't just rate each player then divide by the number of picks. A mega-hit changes the whole complexion of things (for instance, doesn't a single 6th round pick shape your rating of the Pats' 2000 draft?) Similarly, just rating the players taken doesn't leave room for the biggest criticism you can make of this draft class: the lack of any players at a particular position you might have heard about.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is my thinking too. The three real franchise positions in the contemporary NFL are QB, DE and LT. They're the top paid, and the only positions drafted #1 overall since the mid '90s. Three OTs were drafted in the top 10 in 2009; Vollmer has outplayed them all. If the draft were replayed I think Vollmer's a guaranteed top-10 pick, and likely at the high end of the range.

It seems to me that when you regrade a draft, you can't just rate each player then divide by the number of picks. A mega-hit changes the whole complexion of things (for instance, doesn't a single 6th round pick shape your rating of the Pats' 2000 draft?) Similarly, just rating the players taken doesn't leave room for the biggest criticism you can make of this draft class: the lack of any players at a particular position you might have heard about.

For all of those people who have been complaining about our draft, consider that unless Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez becomes a franchise QB, we may end up with the #1 player out of the 2009 draft at #58. I think that in the 10 years under BB, that would be second only to getting TB at 199, which is generally considered the greatest draft steal of all time. Getting a pro bowl caliber LT with the versatility to switch sides is worth an entire draft.

 

[patchick]

For all of those people who have been complaining about our draft, consider that unless Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez becomes a franchise QB, we may end up with the #1 player out of the 2009 draft at #58. I think that in the 10 years under BB, that would be second only to getting TB at 199, which is generally considered the greatest draft steal of all time. Getting a pro bowl caliber LT with the versatility to switch sides is worth an entire draft.

Exactly. Or to put it in "draft value chart" terms: The pick St. Louis used on Jason Smith was worth 2600 points, and if Jason Smith's rookie year had looked like Vollmers, everybody in St. Louis would feel they got solid value. The Patriots 5 picks in the rounds 1-3 put together were worth 2215 points.

In fact (even acknowledging the weaknesses of the value chart), that could be an interesting kind of post-hoc draft exercise. Re-slot all of your team's selections to where you think their real value lies, then compare the point total to the value of the picks they used.

 

[mayoclinic]

Exactly. Or to put it in "draft value chart" terms: The pick St. Louis used on Jason Smith was worth 2600 points, and if Jason Smith's rookie year had looked like Vollmers, everybody in St. Louis would feel they got solid value. The Patriots 5 picks in the rounds 1-3 put together were worth 2215 points.

In fact (even acknowledging the weaknesses of the value chart), that could be an interesting kind of post-hoc draft exercise. Re-slot all of your team's selections to where you think their real value lies, then compare the point total to the value of the picks they used.

I would love to know whether Floyd Reese played any role in the Pats targeting Vollmer. Reese was the Titans GM in 2005 when they took 6'7" 315# Michael Roos from Estonia (via Eastern Washington) at #41 in the draft. He was an All Pro in 2008. I thought that turned out to be one of the great draft steals of all time. I'd be really curious if Reese had something to do with the 6'8" 315# Vollmer, who may be even better than Roos. If so, he was worth bringing in to the FO for that alone.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The three real franchise positions in the contemporary NFL are QB, DE and LT. They're the top paid, and the only positions drafted #1 overall since the mid '90s. Three OTs were drafted in the top 10 in 2009; Vollmer has outplayed them all. If the draft were replayed I think Vollmer's a guaranteed top-10 pick, and likely at the high end of the range.

I think everybody is missing the boat on this. Vollmer has worked out immediately for us, because his abilities are perfect for the zone blocking scheme and we run that specific zone blocking scheme.

Vollmer would might not work immediately in the Dallas or Eagles scheme and would probably struggle for years in the Pittsburgh trap heavy scheme.

Immediate success has a lot to do with ability, but falling into the exact perfect scheme is a major factor. The cream will always rise to the top, but being in the right scheme means you rise fast like on the interstate instead of slow like on a two lane backwoods dirt road if you are in the wrong scheme.

 

[State]

Vollmer would might not work immediately in the Dallas or Eagles scheme and would probably struggle for years in the Pittsburgh trap heavy scheme.

You're kidding, right? He makes Flozell Adams look like a jersey barrier, he's so athletic.

 

[patchick]

I think everybody is missing the boat on this. Vollmer has worked out immediately for us, because his abilities are perfect for the zone blocking scheme and we run that specific zone blocking scheme.

Vollmer would might not work immediately in the Dallas or Eagles scheme and would probably struggle for years in the Pittsburgh trap heavy scheme.

Immediate success has a lot to do with ability, but falling into the exact perfect scheme is a major factor. The cream will always rise to the top, but being in the right scheme means you rise fast like on the interstate instead of slow like on a two lane backwoods dirt road if you are in the wrong scheme.

I'm not 100% sold on this, given that Vollmer was drafted as a super-raw talent. It's hard to know how much his strengths as shown on the field simply reflect what he's been taught since draft day. But even assuming you're right -- Ochmed, how does that play out in terms of the teams that actually drafted an OT top 10, St. Louis, Cinci & Jacksonville? Do you think none of them would take Vollmer in a re-do?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I would love to know whether Floyd Reese played any role in the Pats targeting Vollmer. Reese was the Titans GM in 2005 when they took 6'7" 315# Michael Roos from Estonia (via Eastern Washington) at #41 in the draft. He was an All Pro in 2008. I thought that turned out to be one of the great draft steals of all time. I'd be really curious if Reese had something to do with the 6'8" 315# Vollmer, who may be even better than Roos. If so, he was worth bringing in to the FO for that alone.

No much. Around the time he was hired, reports stated that he would primarily be involved in contract negotiations, while Caserio would remain in charge of scouting.

Also, if you watch this video, around 30 seconds in you'll see the biggest reason he was drafted.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

No much. Around the time he was hired, reports stated that he would primarily be involved in contract negotiations, while Caserio would remain in charge of scouting.

Also, if you watch this video, around 30 seconds in you'll see the biggest reason he was drafted.

Exactly.
...

 

[reflexblue]

No much. Around the time he was hired, reports stated that he would primarily be involved in contract negotiations, while Caserio would remain in charge of scouting.

Also, if you watch this video, around 30 seconds in you'll see the biggest reason he was drafted.

I remember complaining back in april about Vollmer was taken in the second rnd. Then i saw this work out tape and posted how fluid he was, that he was really light on his feet for such a big man. I don't catch x's and o's or schemes but i notice things like Vollmers agility. It looks like he played a lot of soccer when he was younger.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I remember complaining back in april about Vollmer was taken in the second rnd. Then i saw this work out tape and posted how fluid he was, that he was really light on his feet for such a big man. I don't catch x's and o's or schemes but i notice things like Vollmers agility. It looks like he played a lot of soccer when he was younger.

I was referring to the guy telling Vollmer what to do.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

New England Patriots (Spring grade: B+)
Impressive draft, especially because they've positioned themselves beautifully for the 2010 draft. They need D-linemen and this draft is loaded; they have three second-round picks. (They also have a future first-rounder for Richard Seymour.) What's more, from this draft they have a bunch of guys already playing -- and for a team that's playoff-bound. Patrick Chung, Ron Brace and Sebastian Vollmer are solid picks. Then you get a seventh-round steal in Julian Edelman.
Current grade: A-

I like Kiper, but has he watched Brace this year.
Brace appears to be a total bust. He get's distroyed at nose tackle.
Pryor as a 6th round pick is far superior to Brace on the field in 2009.