It's more about Tom Brady than Wes Welker!!!

[ATippett56]

So far this week:

"Bench Welker"

"Trade Welker"

"Bench Woodhead"

"Edelman >>>> Welker"

PatsFans Message Board:

Welcome to the Theatre of the Absurd!

 

[MoLewisrocks]

This is one of the more ridiculous theories I've ever heard...

No more ridiculous than Welker has somehow stopped trying hard or somehow pissed Belichick off by missing time or breaking a rule or signing his tag and showing up for offseason but not caved to contract... I think there is some truth to the idea that they are forcing a shift they chose to persue in order to facilitate a transition away from dependence on Welker. Or they were until Hernandez went down.

Lloyd is also a player who has only had success when Josh made him a focus of an offense and he has a little reputation for being somewhat difficult to work with personality wise. So maybe part of the plan to insure that doesn't become an issue here is to make sure he becomes established here out of the gate. He and Brady are having some between series bench discussions reminicent of most receivers here out of the gate save Branch and Welker. With Hernendez and Gronk on the field they still needed to field another perimeter receiver and they somehow decided that Edleman was the logical choice. The only reason I can fathom that they would come to that decision is because they didn't want that guy to be named either Branch (ergo the cut) or Welker (ergo the diminished reps).

Of course it's all a moot point now at least for the next 4-6 weeks. Unless a decision is made to force the assimilation of the backup TE (be he Winslow or Fells).

This is an offshoot of the theory that Josh was tasked with solving the problem of the offense not overcoming one more defense at the end of the 2007 and 2011 seasons. Although I think there are a;ternate explanations for why that happened that might mitigate opting for a fairly a radical solution.

 

[BradyManny]

Well, blame the new CBA for that. You really can't work a lot of things out in practice anymore with only 15 padded practices allowed for the entire season. That is less than one practice a week.

It's true. And it's why the Pats and their precision offense is probably as hindered by these rules as anybody.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

The first post makes little sense.

Why *force* the ball to Lloyd and Edelman, when you have/had 3 unstoppable weapons in Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez. Who cares if they all do work in the middle of the field? The middle of the field is a HUGE space to work with. If the reason for sitting Welker was to force Brady to give it to Lloyd and Edelman, then whoever made that decision needs to have decision-making authority taken away (and I doubt it's Belichick). I still don't understand why Branch, Stallworth, and Gaffney was cut supposedly with the rationale that Edelman is the new#2. Since when was Edelman ever an above average WR on the sidelines? If anything he competes with Welker and Hernandez for the slot routes, and he's not better than either of them there.

 

[Ivan]

The first post makes little sense.

Why *force* the ball to Lloyd and Edelman, when you have/had 3 unstoppable weapons in Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez. Who cares if they all do work in the middle of the field? The middle of the field is a HUGE space to work with. If the reason for sitting Welker was to force Brady to give it to Lloyd and Edelman, then whoever made that decision needs to have decision-making authority taken away (and I doubt it's Belichick). I still don't understand why Branch, Stallworth, and Gaffney was cut supposedly with the rationale that Edelman is the new#2. Since when was Edelman ever an above average WR on the sidelines? If anything he competes with Welker and Hernandez for the slot routes, and he's not better than either of them there.

I don't think he was saying they should force the ball to anybody but more that Brady is so used to Welker getting open instantly that he has conditioned himself to turn to that option too much and they want to get him to use other options and all of the field more often. Brady is the best there is and if this is what they are doing he will adjust to it to their benefit as a team. it may be an out of the box theory but it certainly attempts to address a situation everyone is struggling to explain.

 

[borg]

Lloyds been the #1 targeted receiver over two games. Would that be the case if Welker was a fulltimer? They were big favorites going into these games.....and I suspect BB was looking beyond these teams with both Baltimore and the NYJ in mind....both teams that flood the middle of the field. Get Brady and Lloyd in synch early and have the duo ready to combat the AFC teams that stand in their way.

 

[JJDChE]

So it is not a good idea to throw to the players who catch the highest percentage of the passes that are thrown their way, if they are "open" by NFL standards? For last year, the rank order was, I believe, Wes, Gronk, then Aaron.

It was the same rank order when listed by receptions per dropped pass, where Welker finished 6th in the league in receptions per drop (30.5), Gronkowski 15th (22.5), and Hernandez tied for 19th (19.8).

Pats pass-catchers reliable, dependable - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Those are the people I certainly so not want to throw to less often, if they are open, unless someone else proves to be equally efficient or even more efficient when open. Julian and Brandon have not shown that to me yet, though I realize it's a small sample size. They also haven't shown me that they can even get open regularly. Lloyd has in the past, though, so I have hopes.

Watch the games. He tries to force it into Welker when there's virtually no chance for a reception more often than he should. The stats don't tell the story of who is open and who isn't. Stats don't always tell the story. Most times they only tell part of it, at best.

 

[Kontradiction]

No more ridiculous than Welker has somehow stopped trying hard or somehow pissed Belichick off by missing time or breaking a rule or signing his tag and showing up for offseason but not caved to contract... I think there is some truth to the idea that they are forcing a shift they chose to persue in order to facilitate a transition away from dependence on Welker. Or they were until Hernandez went down.

Lloyd is also a player who has only had success when Josh made him a focus of an offense and he has a little reputation for being somewhat difficult to work with personality wise. So maybe part of the plan to insure that doesn't become an issue here is to make sure he becomes established here out of the gate. He and Brady are having some between series bench discussions reminicent of most receivers here out of the gate save Branch and Welker. With Hernendez and Gronk on the field they still needed to field another perimeter receiver and they somehow decided that Edleman was the logical choice. The only reason I can fathom that they would come to that decision is because they didn't want that guy to be named either Branch (ergo the cut) or Welker (ergo the diminished reps).

Of course it's all a moot point now at least for the next 4-6 weeks. Unless a decision is made to force the assimilation of the backup TE (be he Winslow or Fells).

This is an offshoot of the theory that Josh was tasked with solving the problem of the offense not overcoming one more defense at the end of the 2007 and 2011 seasons. Although I think there are a;ternate explanations for why that happened that might mitigate opting for a fairly a radical solution.

They can facillitate this change in the offseason without putting the team at risk for unnecessary losses which could hurt them in the long run. If they want to force this change now, what the hell was the point of offering the franchise tag in the first place?

 

[BradyManny]

Welker's catch rate was 3rd in the NFL last year.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Watch the games.

I do, without exception

He tries to force it into Welker when there's virtually no chance for a reception more often than he should. The stats don't tell the story of who is open and who isn't.

Stats do remove some silly biases from consideration though.

2011 Patriots Stats

If a person catches 71% of the passes thrown to him, it's hard to argue that throwing to him too often constitutes a major problem. Now I know the last two games have not been pretty, but that is an issue of sample size IMO.

Was Gronk thrown also targeted too much last year (73% success rate) and Aaron too (70% success rate)?

It does seem that TB forced it into Deion a bit much last year (57% success rate)

 

[MoLewisrocks]

They can facillitate this change in the offseason without putting the team at risk for unnecessary losses which could hurt them in the long run. If they want to force this change now, what the hell was the point of offering the franchise tag in the first place?

You would think. But judging by the pre season games that hadn't yet occurred. People wondered why Branch wasn't being utilized in team reps in camp. No injury per the player so that was a decision made either to manage an aging player who didn't really need the reps (logical assumption) or keeping him out of the mix because they were already considering cutting him (illogical reality). Then there was bunching of 3 games and not playing starters together much and not playing Welker when they did. Led to logical speculation he was injured but that doesn't appear to have been the case. Again, perhaps forcing issue.

As to the tag, apparently it was insurance. They didn't know for sure they could get Lloyd, apparenty hadn't yet realized Edelman was an emerging #2..., didn't know that Gaffney and Stallworth would be options. I do think they brough them and kicked some others tires in part to create leverage. Only they didn't pan out and it didn't work. Then they were also able to get team friendly early deals done on both TE's.

It's all an evolving connect the dots exercise in hindsight so who knows. But the alternatives make a lot less sense.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I do, without exception



Stats do remove some silly biases from consideration though.

2011 Patriots Stats

If a person catches 71% of the passes thrown to him, it's hard to argue that throwing to him too often constitutes a major problem. Now I know the last two games have not been pretty, but that is an issue of sample size IMO.

Was Gronk thrown also targeted too much last year (73% success rate) and Aaron too (70% success rate)?

It does seem that TB forced it into Deion a bit much last year (57% success rate)

That was about the career success rate for the alternative... I think Lloyd's is in the low 60's. Although the last 2 seasons when featured as a #1 it's been around 50%.

 

[E1Downey]

Theres only 16 games and we all know how much they are each worth. This isn't the time for "tinkering" at the risk of losing a very winnable game. This should be an all in year, not an experimenting year.
Time is running out, the Brady clock is ticking, so they better start getting serious.

Sent from my SPH-D710 using Tapatalk 2

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Brady throws to Welker with a guy in his hip pocket way too often. In a way I can't blame him, but I think it hurts the team, in general, that he doesn't often go past Welker in his progressions.

Translation: My brother-in-law Edeleman needs more looks from TFB

 

[Jose]

Welker really needs to stop dropping passes. Three straight games now?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If that's the case why not trade him? Isn't the point of paying someone $9M+ is for him to BE the focal point of your offense?

 

[AzPatsFan]

The Quick hit:

How do you force Brady to implement the new offensive strategy and target Lloyd......keep Welker off the field!!

Long Winded Explanation:

In 2010-11, the few teams that were successful slowing the Pats offensive machine were the teams that successfully flooded the center of the field with extra DBs (yes, push up the middle was an issue also). BB and McDaniels signed Lloyd as the weapon that would open up the field both horizontally (sideline routes, backshoulder throws) and vertically (bombs). Their plan was/is to force Ds to abandon the zone flooding. Great idea in theory but the plan needs the right WR ...and a QB willing to step out from his comfort zone.(I can already see all your eyes rolling in the back of your head).

The term "binky" gets thrown around this site quite often....and rightfully so. The Brady to Welker combo is lethal....and when the ***** hits the fan, Brady finds his guy, to the tune of 120 catches last year with a 16 catch total in one game alone. Add in Gronk's 99 catches and AHern's 69 last year, and it is clear their are plenty of binkies available. The problem is....all 3 patrol the same space...the middle of the field.
Look at the situation from BB's perspective.....He sees how Ds defend his passing game ....and he has also seen his QB go from a guy that spread it around to "who's ever open" to a QB that is locked on 3 excellent players. With several wasted #2 draft picks, a slew of vet WRs that never made the roster, and a $6 mill waste of space all tossed in the garbage pile.....and now a significant long term investment (Lloyd) that management believes will force teams to change up their D plans.....BB needs to make this work.

But how do you prevent Brady from starting the season right where he left off....looking for Wes? Easy......keep Wes off the field. I'm betting BB looked at the schedule and felt comfortable enough limiting Welker's reps in order to get Lloyd involved immediately and develop a comfort level between the WR and QB. Wes' second half success vs Ariz clearly demonstrates that the Brady/Welker combo is money in the bank ( bad pun ) and BB knows this....always has. The Welkerless O is more about retraining Brady to expand the field.

Your premise is a distinct possiblity. Flooding the same area with three receivers can be a problem. The real test is to see where Edelmen is lining up compared to Wes. Is he split wide, and running more routes outside the middle?

One of the problems if this is judged to be a reality, is the short routes that Welker, Gronk and Ahearn run. So they have to be early reads as TB goes through his progressions. If he finds one open, he may throw there and never look beyond them.

I subscribe to the well known BB tendency to experiment early in the season. He builds hisi team throughout the regular season and as a consequence they are usually better in the Playoffs.

 

[captain stone]

Disagree. The pats lose one guy on offense and they fall apart. Its pretty pathetic actually. Happened when welker was out for the Baltimore game a few years ago, when Gronk was out for the SB, and again last week when Hernandez was out.

Its like the Pats have no contingency plan if a player gets injured. Brady losses one weapon and one of the best offenses in the becomes one of the worst. Brady panics when he's under pressure. And the crazy thing is people still complain about how "tom needs more help".

Pats have a HOF QB, the best TE in the game, the best slot WR in the game, an emerging #1 RB, and a VERY good deep threat/receiver in Lloyd. Other teams would kill to have what the Pats have on offense...

I agree w/ all you wrote, but also would like to add that an unstable (to put it mildly) OL will kill
even the best-laid plans of Bill & Skippy. The C & G positions must be stabilized w/ Connolly &
McDonald ASAP, so that Cannon, Thomas & Wendell can be relegated to the backup status to which
they belong.

 

[BSR]

I think the OP has some valid points but I think it has less to do with the specific personnel and more to do with the formations and offensive philosophy.

In each of the last four post seasons the opposing defense was able to limit the Pats offense by working against their strength. Its no different than what Belichick has always preached defensively. Take away what the opposition does best and force them to do those things that they are less comfortable with. Its this strategy that has stifled them in the post season, and in recent years in particular when teams flood the short and intermediate zones. By trying to strengthen their effectiveness to outside receivers and the running game they are going to make themselves better in the long run. They can't have opposing D's just have to prepare for one aspect of the offense.

And this isn't about being an experimental year. If they don't become a more varied offense then they are just wasting another year as the post season results will be the same as the last four.

 

[Ring 6]

Lloyds been the #1 targeted receiver over two games. Would that be the case if Welker was a fulltimer? They were big favorites going into these games.....and I suspect BB was looking beyond these teams with both Baltimore and the NYJ in mind....both teams that flood the middle of the field. Get Brady and Lloyd in synch early and have the duo ready to combat the AFC teams that stand in their way.

Welker played 63 snaps. 10 of the 15 that he didn't play were runs. How many more targets would he get it he played every single snap?
BB looking beyond opponents is just as ludicrous as Brady needing to be trained to decide where to throw the ball.
Very poor posting day for you. If the Pats play this Sunday like you posted today, they will lose 50-0