Is There Much Value at 25-35?

[jeffbiologist]

Excellent post mg. Casserley said this was one of the worst Draft classes he has ever seen after the first round or so. I think we build expectations in the excitement of the Draft. Trading into next year is a gamble as well. If you have the arrows in the quiver like BB does let;'s use them this year and I don't give to craps about his past M.O. This is an unusual circumstance. Because of the uncertainty of a possible Rookie pay limitations, we had a lot of underclassman renounce their final years in panic. That will affect 2012 greatly.

These are my 2011 entire Draft class grades. Grade them yourself. They reflect depth as well:
QB=C
RB=C
WR=C
OT=C
G=D
C=D
TE=D

DE=B
DT=C
ILB=D
OLB=B
CB=D
S=D-

I am for packaging as many picks as possible to stay in the top end of the Draft.
DW Toys

UM, didnt they "panic" last year?? Last year the juniors knew about the CBA and a record declared early right?? It was supposed to be the deepest draft because of that since 83. Or am I wrong?

 

[Fencer]

I really can't see #33 getting traded as part of a package or anything on day 1. I think BB sees a lot of value in that pick with the new draft format. If the Patriots do move out of #33, I think it will be settled in the night after day 1 - their phone will probably be off the hook all night.

Any pick that is particularly good to trade down from is also particularly good to trade up from.

Why? Because somebody who's in the mode of trading down would, rightly, love to have that pick.

 

[Fencer]

By the time the draft rolls around, the "right choice" at DE may require a Ty Warren high kind of pick. So that fits.

But a more natural trade for the counterparty might be, say, 12 & a 2nd for 17 & 33, trued up with later-round considerations.

 

[patman52]

We have 2 picks in this range. Other than overdrafting a couple of quarterbacks, there may no be much value here. If we stay in this range, we will find players, likely an offensive lineman. It seems very likely that Belichick would want out of these picks.

I would strongly consider trading both 28 and 33 to Houston (11) or Minny (12) and keeping our 17. I would be much happier with 11/12 and 17 than 17, 28 and 33. But in the end, Belichick likes trades down and forward more than up.

I think that is too great a drop for them, both are likely to get guys who they have in the top 10 at a position of need. But would I go to be with a smile on my face for a year if we got Quinn and Watt/Jordan

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

H'mmm 28 to 35 range value?

Solder or Castonzo might be there, maybe Sherrod, none of the other OL seem to have NE kind of promise.
Wilkerson, Paea on the DL.

Maybe five prospects projected to fall in that value range, I'm not sold.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

By the time the draft rolls around, the "right choice" at DE may require a Ty Warren high kind of pick. So that fits.

But a more natural trade for the counterparty might be, say, 12 & a 2nd for 17 & 33, trued up with later-round considerations.

I like this scenario much more than 28+33 for 11 or 12. It seems like 17 would be too late for the blue chippers and we'd have our choice of reds so unless someone slips, there might not be much value at 17 compared to 25-35.

 

[mcsully]

Excellent post mg. Casserley said this was one of the worst Draft classes he has ever seen after the first round or so.

Casserley actually said this is the worst draft in memory for 1st round seniors.. Not a bad draft overall.. I actually mentioned this topic about 3 months ago listening to Mayock and he stated the same thing. At the time, he didn't have any Senior player ranked as a top canidated for the draft..

 

[WhiZa]

Outside of the top 6 players I'm really not liking what I see until the 2nd round as far as value. The needs as I see for the Pats are RB, OG, OT, to a lesser extent OLB, S, WR. Most of those positions sweet spots are in the late 2nd to 3rd rounds. I'm hoping we trade back.

 

[Off The Grid]

Outside of the top 6 players I'm really not liking what I see until the 2nd round as far as value.

The needs as I see for the Pats are RB, OG, OT, to a lesser extent OLB, S, WR.

Most of those positions sweet spots are in the late 2nd to 3rd rounds.

I'm hoping we trade back.

A very bold statement, sir.

Who, in particular, do you see as good values in the 2nd + 3rd?

 

[TheComeback]

#33 is one of the most valuable picks in the draft. It's the first pick on the second day. I'll bet you $100 that multiple teams try to get that pick from us after day one is over.

So yeah, I'd say there's quite a bit of value between 25 and 35.

 

[Off The Grid]

Casserley actually said this is the worst draft in memory for 1st round seniors.

I remember that, and I agree.

1st Round Values ~ My Not So Humble Opinion

QB ~ Nada.
OC ~ Nada.
OG ~ Nada.
OT ~ Nada.
TE ~ Nada.
RB ~ Nada.
WR ~ Nada.

DT ~ Nada.
DE ~ Jordan + Clayborn + Heyward + Kerrigan.
OB ~ Von Miller.
IB ~ Nada.
SS ~ Nada.
FS ~ Nada.
CB ~ Amukamara.

***

That's just my opinion, of course, but that's a total of SIX Seniors I'd give a 1st Round grade to, and not a SOUL on Offense.

 

[DW Toys]

Casserley actually said this is the worst draft in memory for 1st round seniors.. Not a bad draft overall.. I actually mentioned this topic about 3 months ago listening to Mayock and he stated the same thing. At the time, he didn't have any Senior player ranked as a top canidated for the draft..

I stand corrected. I do know our needs are well represented. If you need a TE, S, or ILB you better hope there is Free Agency. DT is pretty thin after the first few picks. CB is mediocre after perhaps the first three. They did say that this years OT class is no where near last years.
QB might be the biggest unknown. They all have warts. They were saying Ryan Fitzpatrick is a better prospect at QB over any other than the first two if the Bills are going QB.I think they go for excitement and Draft Newton becuase they have at least Fitzpatrick. I think you can ink in Gabbert for the Panthers. Claussen was rated way too high last year (most NFL ready QB?????).
If they get this CBA crap done I still like my very viable trade that gets the Cards their QB. Fact is NFL front offices are too lazy to invest the work in some of these things.

Just food for thought....but each Team should be happy.

Mankins and Merriweather and Tate and our 3rd rounder #92 to the Eagles for Kolb and DeSean Jackson (threatened to hold out). Reid gets his major needs with two Pro Bowl players plus a high end pick. Tate starts opposite Macklin. The Eagles thought Jackson went invisible in the play-offs. The Eagles don't waste early picks on specific needs and can go BPA.
The Eagles redo Mankins contract.

We take Kolb and Jackson, and add Kaczur as the Cards need a RT(he won't redo his contract), Sanders who replaces Wilson in my trade (high CAP for a rotation guy) one of our picks in the first and a second rounder (our #17 and our #60 in the second), for Fitzgerald, Adrian Wilson and their #5 pick.
The Cards now have DeSean Jackson to take out the sting for Fitzgerald and a QB who is familiar with that receiver. The Cards redo Jackson's contract which is will be cheaper than Fitzgerald and Bidwell loves that.
The Pats redo Fitzgerald.

Now we have:
#5=Von Miller(?..someone better?) (Best Pats value player in the Draft in my opinion.All Pro potential. Blue Chipper)

#28=Watkins G/RT (plays with Mankins intensity and mean)

#33=Ingram RB (superb value if he is here)

#74=Ellis NT/DE (rising stud. Helps Wilfork stay fresh

#125=Moffitt G/C (eventual Koppen replacement. Tough guy)

#159=Romeus DE/OLB (Maybe starts on PUP. Perhaps the steal of the Draft. Was a top ten pick before this year. Lost his Mom, had disc surgery and an ACL repair that is healed as did Tate. Was better than Sheard)

#193=Cortez Allen CB/FS (taller CB might be perfect S eventually. From a BB favorite, a Service School. Longest Broad Jump of CBs, third best 10 yard and third best shuttle of top twenty CBs. Stronger than Peterson and Amukamara).

(The above are my picks so slot in your own if they bug you)

Add Fitzgerald and S Adrian Wilson (as close as you could get to a Harrison back there at Safety with experience and a definite upgrade. He has had 68 P.Def, 22.5 Sacks and 25 Ints in his nine year career and played all last year with a torn stomach muscle he never told anyone about...Tough Team leader) who pairs with Chung and mentors him.

And we are pretty sporty going into 2011 if the CBA gets done.
DW Toys

 

[mcsully]

I stand corrected.
DW Toys

No worries.. I think you and I watched the same thing..

 

[mcsully]

Just food for thought....but each Team should be happy.

Mankins and Merriweather and Tate and our 3rd rounder #92 to the Eagles for Kolb and DeSean Jackson (threatened to hold out). Reid gets his major needs with two Pro Bowl players plus a high end pick. Tate starts opposite Macklin. The Eagles thought Jackson went invisible in the play-offs. The Eagles don't waste early picks on specific needs and can go BPA.
The Eagles redo Mankins contract.

We take Kolb and Jackson, and add Kaczur as the Cards need a RT(he won't redo his contract), Sanders who replaces Wilson in my trade (high CAP for a rotation guy) one of our picks in the first and a second rounder (our #17 and our #60 in the second), for Fitzgerald, Adrian Wilson and their #5 pick.
The Cards now have DeSean Jackson to take out the sting for Fitzgerald and a QB who is familiar with that receiver. The Cards redo Jackson's contract which is will be cheaper than Fitzgerald and Bidwell loves that.
The Pats redo Fitzgerald.

Now we have:
#5=Von Miller(?..someone better?) (Best Pats value player in the Draft in my opinion.All Pro potential. Blue Chipper)

#28=Watkins G/RT (plays with Mankins intensity and mean)

#33=Ingram RB (superb value if he is here)

#74=Ellis NT/DE (rising stud. Helps Wilfork stay fresh

#125=Moffitt G/C (eventual Koppen replacement. Tough guy)

#159=Romeus DE/OLB (Maybe starts on PUP. Perhaps the steal of the Draft. Was a top ten pick before this year. Lost his Mom, had disc surgery and an ACL repair that is healed as did Tate. Was better than Sheard)

#193=Cortez Allen CB/FS (taller CB might be perfect S eventually. From a BB favorite, a Service School. Longest Broad Jump of CBs, third best 10 yard and third best shuttle of top twenty CBs. Stronger than Peterson and Amukamara).

(The above are my picks so slot in your own if they bug you)

Add Fitzgerald and S Adrian Wilson (as close as you could get to a Harrison back there at Safety with experience and a definite upgrade. He has had 68 P.Def, 22.5 Sacks and 25 Ints in his nine year career and played all last year with a torn stomach muscle he never told anyone about...Tough Team leader) who pairs with Chung and mentors him.

And we are pretty sporty going into 2011 if the CBA gets done.
DW Toys

Pushing aside the fact players can't be traded right now..

People are over rating the value of Mankins and MW.. I posted this a few times in your theory on getting Fitz here.. When was the last time an OG was traded in the league? I can't even remember and no one responded so I'm thinking its pretty rare.. But lets take an example of Jason Peters, who was traded for a late 1st rounder.. We can argue Mankins is better but the fact is LT's are highly targeted. In theory, Mankins would fetch us a mid 2nd round pick. MW?? We've seen what he can do, and this being a week draft, we'd probably get a 3rd rounder for him... BTW Tate's value is 0, until he can prove he can catch 50-60 balls. With the changes in the league, his value has diminished.

Now on to Philly.. Why would Philly trade Jackson (and we're basing this on one rumor) and Kolb when they could get multiple 1st round picks for them individually.. Its not a win win for them.. Its a lose lose.. They lose two skilled players for 1 very good player and above average player..

But lets say for an instance Philly takes the bit and makes this trade.. Arizona now needs to give up Fitz and their #5 pick to get Kolb and Jackson..
Why wouldn't Arizona just make a trade with Philly straight up.. Swap draft picks in the 1st round and Arizona gives up their 2nd for Kolb. Makes way more sense and allows arizona to keep Fitz (who only wants a legit QB) and draft Soldier or Brooks..

In the end using the two teams you mentioned and my scenario, Philly gets the #5 pick, keeps Jackson or can trade him for another #1.. If they trade Jackson, they Pick Green and pick use the new #1 from the Jackson Trade to pick an OL or Corner.. If they keep the pick, they Draft Peterson and firm up their Secondary with a player many people believe is the best player in the draft

Arizona now gets a Vet QB, low cost, keeps Fitz (top 3 wr in the game) and uses that #1 pick they obtained from Phillyto draft Brooks or Soldier.

In my scenario, Arizona and Philly walk away with better deals..

 

[DW Toys]

Pushing aside the fact players can't be traded right now..

People are over rating the value of Mankins and MW.. I posted this a few times in your theory on getting Fitz here.. When was the last time an OG was traded in the league? I can't even remember and no one responded so I'm thinking its pretty rare.. But lets take an example of Jason Peters, who was traded for a late 1st rounder.. We can argue Mankins is better but the fact is LT's are highly targeted. In theory, Mankins would fetch us a mid 2nd round pick. MW?? We've seen what he can do, and this being a week draft, we'd probably get a 3rd rounder for him... BTW Tate's value is 0, until he can prove he can catch 50-60 balls. With the changes in the league, his value has diminished.

Now on to Philly.. Why would Philly trade Jackson (and we're basing this on one rumor) and Kolb when they could get multiple 1st round picks for them individually.. Its not a win win for them.. Its a lose lose.. They lose two skilled players for 1 very good player and above average player..

But lets say for an instance Philly takes the bit and makes this trade.. Arizona now needs to give up Fitz and their #5 pick to get Kolb and Jackson..
Why wouldn't Arizona just make a trade with Philly straight up.. Swap draft picks in the 1st round and Arizona gives up their 2nd for Kolb. Makes way more sense and allows arizona to keep Fitz (who only wants a legit QB) and draft Soldier or Brooks..

In the end using the two teams you mentioned and my scenario, Philly gets the #5 pick, keeps Jackson or can trade him for another #1.. If they trade Jackson, they Pick Green and pick use the new #1 from the Jackson Trade to pick an OL or Corner.. If they keep the pick, they Draft Peterson and firm up their Secondary with a player many people believe is the best player in the draft

Arizona now gets a Vet QB, low cost, keeps Fitz (top 3 wr in the game) and uses that #1 pick they obtained from Phillyto draft Brooks or Soldier.

In my scenario, Arizona and Philly walk away with better deals..

Well the nuts and bolts on my deal can change, but the impression is from a certain Philly sports writer that I discussed this with is that Reid would welcome Mankins. Merriweather is also of need as Mikell is an FA.I am not trying to help the Cards but help all three. My goal is to get Fitzgerald. The Cards miss out on Newton or Gabbert and they would like to get out of #5. Trading down might get them Mallett, Ponder or someone of the like but $5 is too high. The perception is the QB rush at the end of Round 1. If Kolb is a better player that those mentioned then the Cards could opt for him but the price is more than just #5 which is too high for Kolb to begin with. Is that a fair statement. I think the Eagles settle on a back end first rounder and perhaps a third. I think Cassell had a better resume and brought us a second rounder! Andy wants a first. So.........I am throwing darts to see if in fact he does take a OL pick in the first. A Draft pick is always a gamble. Would he not be better to take a O Line NFL proven Pro Bowler (of course pending money but Jackson is going to be an issue. He is not thrilled with him). So set that all aside, I can't see a non proven QB is worth more than an All Pro NFL proven guard. The third rounder, Tate and Merriwether should be somewhere near same value for Jackson. His catches decreased by 25% and his TDs by 33%. He had only two catches in the playoff game. He's not chopped liver but his play declined.

You can't get Fitz unless something good goes back. But we need to have some value.

The thread is of value. I see Miller as the best in our case.

DW Toys

 

[SanAngeloState]

Of course-aroo there is valeu there...

guys like
cameron heyward
gabe carimi
or even dan watkins
pouncey
mikel leshoure
sherard

 

[mcsully]

Well the nuts and bolts on my deal can change, but the impression is from a certain Philly sports writer that I discussed this with is that Reid would welcome Mankins. Merriweather is also of need as Mikell is an FA.I am not trying to help the Cards but help all three. My goal is to get Fitzgerald. The Cards miss out on Newton or Gabbert and they would like to get out of #5. Trading down might get them Mallett, Ponder or someone of the like but $5 is too high. The perception is the QB rush at the end of Round 1. If Kolb is a better player that those mentioned then the Cards could opt for him but the price is more than just #5 which is too high for Kolb to begin with. Is that a fair statement. I think the Eagles settle on a back end first rounder and perhaps a third. I think Cassell had a better resume and brought us a second rounder! Andy wants a first. So.........I am throwing darts to see if in fact he does take a OL pick in the first. A Draft pick is always a gamble. Would he not be better to take a O Line NFL proven Pro Bowler (of course pending money but Jackson is going to be an issue. He is not thrilled with him). So set that all aside, I can't see a non proven QB is worth more than an All Pro NFL proven guard. The third rounder, Tate and Merriwether should be somewhere near same value for Jackson. His catches decreased by 25% and his TDs by 33%. He had only two catches in the playoff game. He's not chopped liver but his play declined.

You can't get Fitz unless something good goes back. But we need to have some value.

The thread is of value. I see Miller as the best in our case.

DW Toys

You are probably right that Reid would like Mankins, most teams would. The question is how much is he worth. Considering the Pats and Eagles have the same standard, not to overpay and get rid of a player a year early instead of a year late, I don't see it happening. If he was a tackle, I could see it but unfortunately he's not.

Fitzy is the face of Arizona's franchise, him leaving this year or next (if there is franchise tag), I just don't see it happening..

Let me finish off by saying, I would love Fitzy but I'm a realist and its not going to happen. If we're going to bring a Vet of that calibur, I'd rather see our resources shifted to the defense.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

#33 is one of the most valuable picks in the draft. It's the first pick on the second day. I'll bet you $100 that multiple teams try to get that pick from us after day one is over.

So yeah, I'd say there's quite a bit of value between 25 and 35.

I sure hope so.

But for what it's worth, #33 didn't get traded in 2010. Actually, none of the first 5 picks in the 2nd round were involved in trades made after the first round either.

There were a lot more trades overall in the second round compared to the 2009 draft, just not at the top of the round like expected. But last year was also the first year with the new format so maybe this year there will be more/better offers. St. Louis apparently got a lot of calls about the pick but the value wasn't there to move it.

 

[MaineMan]

#33 is one of the most valuable picks in the draft. It's the first pick on the second day. I'll bet you $100 that multiple teams try to get that pick from us after day one is over.

So yeah, I'd say there's quite a bit of value between 25 and 35.

Apparently, since 1995, there have been only 3 trades up into the #33 spot and in only one of those trades did the premium paid by the team trading up exceed 4% of SVC. That one trade netted the #40 and the #71.

 

[bucky]

I don't believe this for a minute. Once the draft reaches 35-75, there are lots and lots of prospects at OL, well worth drafting, a also a groupd of DE/OLB types that may project about the same as Cunningham. There are also a few safeties in that range, and even a couple of running backs.

We currently have two picks in the 35 - 75 range. I see us have 3-4 by the time we draft on Friday.

I disagree. The value gets worse and worse in this draft. Which is why instead of trading 28 and 33 for 11, I would rather package them like this - 17+74=12, 28+92=21.

12 should be a good place to get a DE. 21 should be a good value area for a guy like Pouncey, Ingram, or perhaps an OLB prospect that BB likes.