Is There Much Value at 25-35?

[mgteich]

We have 2 picks in this range. Other than overdrafting a couple of quarterbacks, there may no be much value here. If we stay in this range, we will find players, likely an offensive lineman. It seems very likely that Belichick would want out of these picks.

I would strongly consider trading both 28 and 33 to Houston (11) or Minny (12) and keeping our 17. I would be much happier with 11/12 and 17 than 17, 28 and 33. But in the end, Belichick likes trades down and forward more than up.

 

[sbpatfan]

They could always package 28 & 33 to 11/12 and grab someone they really want only to trade back from 17 until they find someone with good value at a position they like. Way too many scenarios.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

We have 2 picks in this range. Other than overdrafting a couple of quarterbacks, there may no be much value here. If we stay in this range, we will find players, likely an offensive lineman. It seems very likely that Belichick would want out of these picks.

I would strongly consider trading both 28 and 33 to Houston (11) or Minny (12) and keeping our 17. I would be much happier with 11/12 and 17 than 17, 28 and 33. But in the end, Belichick likes trades down and forward more than up.

So who would you take at #11 (or #12) and #17?

I could see Houston trading #11 to us in a heartbeat if CB's Peterson and Amucumura as well as OLB's Miller and Quinn are off the board.

 

[dryheat44]

We have 2 picks in this range. Other than overdrafting a couple of quarterbacks, there may no be much value here. If we stay in this range, we will find players, likely an offensive lineman. It seems very likely that Belichick would want out of these picks.

I would strongly consider trading both 28 and 33 to Houston (11) or Minny (12) and keeping our 17. I would be much happier with 11/12 and 17 than 17, 28 and 33. But in the end, Belichick likes trades down and forward more than up.

That's interesting, and I hadn't thought about that. Probably because #33 is often thought about being traded back from. I like the idea of trading 28 and 33 for mid-30s and an additional picks in order to better address the holes on the roster that can't be filled by free agency yet.

I have a hard time, though, seeing more value at 17 than I do at 28 & 33 if the draft were today. We'd either have to hope Watt, Jordan, or Kerrigan fall that far, or reach for Wilkerson or an OT. If I were going the trade-up route, I'd probably package 17 with 33 and seeing where that takes us -- around #7 I would guess. To be honest, though, the only people I see giving up that much value for are Miller and Dareus, and one would still have to slide a bit in order to be within trade-up range.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

To be honest, though, the only people I see giving up that much value for are Miller and Dareus, and one would still have to slide a bit in order to be within trade-up range.

If either of them fell to #11 I doubt Houston would want to trade with us.

 

[jays52]

If either of them fell to #11 I doubt Houston would want to trade with us.

Yeah, but they do have a pretty damn group of backers already. They've got their two inside guys filled and have Barwin at one OLB spot. They've got their right end (and a stud at that), and I think Shaun Cody should be able to play the other end. I think they need more help at corner and, obviously, a nose. 28 wouldn't be too high for Brandon Harris nor the Baylor Bust.

 

[BelichickFan]

I would prefer a smaller trade up from #17 to ensure getting Julio Jones, JJ Watt or Cameron Jordan.

Say you get Watt, you can still then get, to pick names, Jamaal Sheard and Stefan Wisniewski (although I think that's a little high for him).

Trading up from 28 you'll still get Watt but you're rolling the dice a little on who's there at 17.

A better plan for me is to trade up from 17 then down from 28.

 

[townes]

No way of knowing until the picks start flying but all of these possibilities are in play. The Patriots are set up to go after players they really want and i would hope they do just that, this much flexibility in a draft is hard to put together and they need to take advantage of it. In mocks I have been looking at many of the players we really like get scooped between 18 and 28/33, and if that starts to happen i'd like to see them move up from 28 while keeping 33, as the 33 pick is going to be really valuable after the first night.

 

[TealSox]

I would prefer a smaller trade up from #17 to ensure getting Julio Jones, JJ Watt or Cameron Jordan.

Say you get Watt, you can still then get, to pick names, Jamaal Sheard and Stefan Wisniewski (although I think that's a little high for him).

Trading up from 28 you'll still get Watt but you're rolling the dice a little on who's there at 17.

A better plan for me is to trade up from 17 then down from 28.

True or False: Selections 1 thru 16 will likely get a 6 year minimum contract, while the following first round selections will get a 5 year contract.

If TRUE, would the Patriots move up a couple spots?

 

[mgteich]

I could see getting Jones AND Watt or Jordan or Wilkerson. Consider if Jones were available at 12, and Watt were gone. We could trade up for Jones and then take Jordan or Wilkerson at 17.

I would prefer a smaller trade up from #17 to ensure getting Julio Jones, JJ Watt or Cameron Jordan.

Say you get Watt, you can still then get, to pick names, Jamaal Sheard and Stefan Wisniewski (although I think that's a little high for him).

Trading up from 28 you'll still get Watt but you're rolling the dice a little on who's there at 17.

A better plan for me is to trade up from 17 then down from 28.

 

[letekro]

Doesn't look like it. Compare the players likely available between 10-15 (R Quinn, Cameron Jordan, Mark Ingram) and the players likely available between 25-35 (J. Houston, M. Wilkerson, M. LeShoure). That's a significant dropoff in my view. If BB sees it the same, I guess we would see a trade up.

 

[TealSox]

Why stop at 25-35?

2011 is a horrible year, in contrast to last year's draft crop.

 

[BelichickFan]

I could see getting Jones AND Watt or Jordan or Wilkerson. Consider if Jones were available at 12, and Watt were gone. We could trade up for Jones and then take Jordan or Wilkerson at 17.

I could live with trading up to get one of my three then sitting at #17 and seeing who's there and trading down if we don't like the group.

By draft day I'm hoping for a bigger list but of those who could be there at around #12, Jones, Watt and Jordan is my complete list for now.

 

[mgteich]

I don't believe this for a minute. Once the draft reaches 35-75, there are lots and lots of prospects at OL, well worth drafting, a also a groupd of DE/OLB types that may project about the same as Cunningham. There are also a few safeties in that range, and even a couple of running backs.

We currently have two picks in the 35 - 75 range. I see us have 3-4 by the time we draft on Friday.

Why stop at 25-35?

2011 is a horrible year, in contrast to last year's draft crop.

 

[jsull87]

In all honesty... i just don't know who i like in this draft. I would really consider trading 28... even 33 as well into 1sts next year and 3rd's this year (or whatever the trade value would go) we can still use 17 and our 60 and the 4 3rds to take young talented players.

Out of interest what is the consensus on next years draft? Talented? I am just looking and there is a real possibility of the players we all covet being gone by 17 and even the guys we have on our board at 28 being gone. I think there is more value in trading 28/33 into the 1st round next year... you never know we could give it to Kansas, Seattle, Oakland and hope for a fall next year. That would mean we turned a middle 3 into a 1st rounder in 2 years... not bad

 

[NEPatriot]

I like the idea. We need impact players and with a potential rookie salary cap this is the time to do it. Quinn anyone?

 

[rookBoston]

Actually, I like the value at 25-35 better than 17-20. Yeah, the players aren't quite as promising but value is relative.

Whenever people think that a guy like Aldon Smith could go as high as #14 or as low as #35, it makes me feel pretty certain that the talent pool has gotten pretty flat in that part of the draft. I've seen Wilkerson as high as #18 and as low as the early 40s. It's a warning flag. I think after the first dozen prospects this draft class gets pretty undifferentiated.

 

[andrewgarrr]

I really can't see #33 getting traded as part of a package or anything on day 1. I think BB sees a lot of value in that pick with the new draft format. If the Patriots do move out of #33, I think it will be settled in the night after day 1 - their phone will probably be off the hook all night.

 

[DW Toys]

We have 2 picks in this range. Other than overdrafting a couple of quarterbacks, there may no be much value here. If we stay in this range, we will find players, likely an offensive lineman. It seems very likely that Belichick would want out of these picks.

I would strongly consider trading both 28 and 33 to Houston (11) or Minny (12) and keeping our 17. I would be much happier with 11/12 and 17 than 17, 28 and 33. But in the end, Belichick likes trades down and forward more than up.

Excellent post mg. Casserley said this was one of the worst Draft classes he has ever seen after the first round or so. I think we build expectations in the excitement of the Draft. Trading into next year is a gamble as well. If you have the arrows in the quiver like BB does let;'s use them this year and I don't give to craps about his past M.O. This is an unusual circumstance. Because of the uncertainty of a possible Rookie pay limitations, we had a lot of underclassman renounce their final years in panic. That will affect 2012 greatly.

These are my 2011 entire Draft class grades. Grade them yourself. They reflect depth as well:
QB=C
RB=C
WR=C
OT=C
G=D
C=D
TE=D

DE=B
DT=C
ILB=D
OLB=B
CB=D
S=D-

I am for packaging as many picks as possible to stay in the top end of the Draft.
DW Toys

 

[mgteich]

I have the same short list.

I could live with trading up to get one of my three then sitting at #17 and seeing who's there and trading down if we don't like the group.

By draft day I'm hoping for a bigger list but of those who could be there at around #12, Jones, Watt and Jordan is my complete list for now.