Is my prediction correct?

[SamBam39]

Why are you so sure that the Jets offer is a ploy? Is that because you "predicted" that?

agreed.
think andy is reaching here.
no ploy, just know's branch's value as a player and would like to get him to go with coles.

see no cloak and dagger to this, and find the reasoning whimsicle to try and say it is.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

A shrewd team could offer him a ridiculous contract, then fail to give the trade bait, in order for him to think he can get more on the open market and refuse to resign here. If Mangini learned from the master, he will offer Branch everything he asked for, then offer the Pats a 4th for the trade, meaning there will be no trade, and Branchs future here is over.
For 2006, this move is a good one, for beyond, its very risky.

I must say, that's very prescient.

Huh? It's not like anyone but the most obtuse could not see that the offer was bogus. How could a bogus, non-starter offer be effective?

For example, $50M with a $20M signing bonus and a 4th rounder for it. Yeah, like anyone (other than the idiot press and a few posters) would think that was real.

 

[TNPatsFan]

Not really because we don't know how much is guaranteed. Those numbers there don't tell us anything.,

If the Jets offer some ridiculous trade making it obvious it's just to drive up the price, that's not going to help Branch's negotiations. The Jets wouldn't even risk making a reasonable offer if that was their plan, because it could easily blow up in their face. They'd be risking alot more than the Pats.

I don't know the Jets cap situation but I'd be surprised if they could go much higher than the 11 million guaranteed the Pats offered. Either way, I doubt the Pats would trade him to the Jets.

 

[dryheat44]

Huh? It's not like anyone but the most obtuse could not see that the offer was bogus. How could a bogus, non-starter offer be effective?

For example, $50M with a $20M signing bonus and a 4th rounder for it. Yeah, like anyone (other than the idiot press and a few posters) would think that was real.

That's exactly what I wrote in another thread.

I was actually quoting AJ's post from last week, since I had called bullsh!t on him. He's made a lot of predictions of how this would end, but that was definitely one of them.

 

[Ring 6]

Good post. If Mangini learned anything from Belichick, it would be not to offer frivolous contracts. What Belichick did one week ago was a means to an end. He opened the door for Deion, and he did it for a reason. Just look at the activity online right now - this matter must be resolved before too long or it will become a huge distraction.

I think you are missing my point, let me illiustrate.

1) Mangini knows that Deion Branch isnt going to be enough to make a difference and make the Jets a winner now, they are too far away.
2) Mangini knows draft picks are his most important asset, and huge contract to fragile WRs do not fit his plan.
3) Mangini knows the Pats are his competition.
4) Mangini DOESNT WANT BRANCH.
5) The Pats, to solve a contract impasse send Branch out on the market to prove their offer is a good one.
If you are Mangini, why WOULDNT YOU make him an offer you know the Pats wont match, and then just refuse to make the trade? Clearly Branch and his agent are going to place the blame on the Pats for demanding too much, and not bargaining in good faith.
Mangini isnt really offering a frivilous contract because he has ZERO INTENTION of ever executing it. All he has done is drive a wedge between Branch and the Pats at absolutely no risk to himself.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I think you are missing my point, let me illiustrate.

1) Mangini knows that Deion Branch isnt going to be enough to make a difference and make the Jets a winner now, they are too far away.
2) Mangini knows draft picks are his most important asset, and huge contract to fragile WRs do not fit his plan.
3) Mangini knows the Pats are his competition.
4) Mangini DOESNT WANT BRANCH.
5) The Pats, to solve a contract impasse send Branch out on the market to prove their offer is a good one.
If you are Mangini, why WOULDNT YOU make him an offer you know the Pats wont match, and then just refuse to make the trade? Clearly Branch and his agent are going to place the blame on the Pats for demanding too much, and not bargaining in good faith.
Mangini isnt really offering a frivilous contract because he has ZERO INTENTION of ever executing it. All he has done is drive a wedge between Branch and the Pats at absolutely no risk to himself.

And only Borges and a few others who just fell out of the pumpkin truck would fail to see this as a ploy with no reality and no value.

 

[Jacky Roberts]

I think you are missing my point, let me illiustrate.

1) Mangini knows that Deion Branch isnt going to be enough to make a difference and make the Jets a winner now, they are too far away.
2) Mangini knows draft picks are his most important asset, and huge contract to fragile WRs do not fit his plan.
3) Mangini knows the Pats are his competition.
4) Mangini DOESNT WANT BRANCH.
5) The Pats, to solve a contract impasse send Branch out on the market to prove their offer is a good one.
If you are Mangini, why WOULDNT YOU make him an offer you know the Pats wont match, and then just refuse to make the trade? Clearly Branch and his agent are going to place the blame on the Pats for demanding too much, and not bargaining in good faith.
Mangini isnt really offering a frivilous contract because he has ZERO INTENTION of ever executing it. All he has done is drive a wedge between Branch and the Pats at absolutely no risk to himself.

True, but if you can't get much better yourself, you can even the playing field by weakening your prime competition. Mangini getting Branch hurts the Pats and helps the Jets. The big winner in this trade, realistically, would be the Dolphins.

 

[Lester22]

I'd say I was pretty much dead-on with my prediction...Branch to Jets

 

[Ring 6]

agreed.
think andy is reaching here.
no ploy, just know's branch's value as a player and would like to get him to go with coles.

see no cloak and dagger to this, and find the reasoning whimsicle to try and say it is.

I'm not saying it IS bogus, just that it may be, and it would be a smart move by Mangini do so if he didnt even want Branch.

We'll see. Maybe its real and Branch gets traded to the Jets.

But given the 2 alternatives, I would judge Mangini a much smarter man to have simply tried to harm the Pats when given the opportunity on a silver platter than to actually think the best thing for his franchise is to trade a player and a 2nd round pick (or more) for the right to pay Deion Branch $36million.
That trade may make sense for some teams, but it foolish for the Jets.
Maybe Im giving Mangini too much credit, but if I saw the opportunity on day 1, I find it hard to believe that Mangini didnt.

The question remains, what would Mangini have to lose by doing that?

 

[RayClay]

When the Pats sent Branch out to negotiate with other temas, I predicted that if Mangini had learned anything from BB he would give Branch a huge offer that was more than his value of what he was willing to pay him, then refuse to agree on any reasonable trade compensation, thereby driving a wedge between Branch and the Pats, ie overinflating Branchs opinion of himself, pricing the Pats out of keeping him, and plssing Branch off because he has his deal but the Pats are asking for ridiculous trade compensation.

Has Mangini outsmarted BB?

Branch is under contract and refusing to play. A wedge is redundant.

 

[Ring 6]

True, but if you can't get much better yourself, you can even the playing field by weakening your prime competition. Mangini getting Branch hurts the Pats and helps the Jets. The big winner in this trade, realistically, would be the Dolphins.

Disagree. I dont think getting Branch at that price and giving up most importantly a valuable draft pick helps the Jets at all.
I dont think Mangini saw any method of helping the Jets, because Branch at that price doesnt help them long term, given the state of the franchise.

He simply saw a competitor expeose themselves. This was not part of the plan to imporve the Jets, but given the opportunity to hurt a competitor at no risk to yuorself why wouldnt you?

Lets put it another way:

Lets say this was Chris Chambers. Miami did the same thing we did with Branch.

If you have no interest in Chambers, why wouldnt the Pats make him an offer that clinches him not resigning with Miami? Its not a real offer because you will never make the trade. You assume zero risk. However you have driven a wedge between Chambers and the Fins. He will never resign, because the Patriots have proved he is worth more than the Fins will pay him, and the Fins are screwing him by not accepting the trade.
I just don't see how a division foe WOULDNT do this

 

[Tunescribe]

Not if its a ploy. Very easy for Mangini to make an offer Branch would jump at, knowing all along we would never pull the trigger on the trade. Going through the motions of trade talks doesnt mean he really intends to make one. If Im Mangini, I jump all over a chance to effectively end Branchs career in NE, keep the Pats tied up in trade talks with me, een though I willnever agree. When you are competing, harming your competitor is a way to improve yourself.

Think about it. If Eric Mangini can pull a 'scam' to prevent the Pats from having Deion Branch for the next 6 years, he has improved his chances of winning the division over that time.
Quite frankly, I'd be shocked if Mangini DIDNT try to screw the Pats here.

This is assuming Branch isn't smart enough to figure out it's a ruse. I just don't buy the idea. Could you see BB doing something like that?

 

[Ring 6]

And only Borges and a few others who just fell out of the pumpkin truck would fail to see this as a ploy with no reality and no value.

Why?
Everyone here believes the Jets are sincere.
Are you really telling me that the 2 teams failing to agree on trade compensation would reveal to the world the Jets were never serious?

You yourself apparently believe the Jets are sincere. Did you fall off the pumpkin truck?

 

[Ring 6]

This is assuming Branch isn't smart enough to figure out it's a ruse. I just don't buy the idea. Could you see BB doing something like that?

Why would Branch think its a ruse?
Mangini is agreeing to pay him what he wants.
If the teams dont agree on compensation, which is more likely?

Branch thinks the team that wooed him was laughing behind his back?
Branch thinks the Pats never intended to trade him unless they got a ridiculous amount of compensation? He already thinks they are screwing him on the contract.

There is no doubt at all if these trades fall apart Branch will place 100% blame on the Patriots.

 

[R_T26]

I predicted the same scenario

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=39850

 

[SamBam39]

I predicted the same scenario

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=39850

Look, for any offer to mean anything to branch or the pats, it has to be realistic on both ends - the contract offer and the trade offer.

the pats aren't gonna dump deion just because he'd like them to.
so saying deion will be more angry if the pats don't accept a poor offer from the jets is just silly.
let deion be more angry then - who cares. I don't think mangini is doing anything of the sort. and why would he continue of the vikes or seahawks are negotiating a more realisitc offer? if it was a ploy, he'd be done and gone by now.

I can see the point, but I think it is a bit unrealisitic - maybe I'm wrong.

 

[SCPatBoy]

You guys have lost your heads if you for a Second believe that........If you don't think BB/Pioli knew that there would be a few teams to offer branch more money, then you are really insulting those guys.......They might not have known which teams, but they I'm sure were well prepared for a scenario of teams offering Branch more.....The offers aren't light years ahead of the Pats....Just enough to be a little more then the Pats........This whole wedge being driven card is being way overplayed. Because in doing that you go off the premise that BB/ Pioli never expected a team to offer more....That is just crazy today where someone will always offer a player more and essentially overpay......I believe BB/Pioli have been prepared for this and will execute a deal that is the best for the organization!

You guys are all really reaching!

 

[Displaced - Fan]

When the Pats sent Branch out to negotiate with other temas, I predicted that if Mangini had learned anything from BB he would give Branch a huge offer that was more than his value of what he was willing to pay him, then refuse to agree on any reasonable trade compensation, thereby driving a wedge between Branch and the Pats, ie overinflating Branchs opinion of himself, pricing the Pats out of keeping him, and plssing Branch off because he has his deal but the Pats are asking for ridiculous trade compensation.

Has Mangini outsmarted BB?

I doubt a team is going to look all that smart if they offer a player #1 WR money, but don't expect to give up the equivalent in trade. This would probably be looked at as tampering and is frowned upon in the league. Teams will be much less likely to ever deal with you again. This really WOULDN'T be a smart move by another team.

 

[Ring 6]

You guys are all really reaching!

First, it is a THEORY. Im not saying Im correct, just defending the theory that potentially its happening.

No one has given any reason why Mangini wouldnt do this.
What BB expected to happen has nothing to do with it. Mangini acted on the opportunity when he saw it. The fact that other teams made offers is irrelevent, Mangini didnt call 30 other teams and ask them what they were going to do.
He saw an opportunity to go through the motions and potentially hurt the Patriots. He'd be a fool not to.

My post was IS my prdiction correct? Because I dont know. But I havent seen anything yet that shows me Mangini was sincere in his offer, or that there is any downside to him doing exactly what I think he did.

 

[Ring 6]

I doubt a team is going to look all that smart if they offer a player #1 WR money, but don't expect to give up the equivalent in trade. This would probably be looked at as tampering and is frowned upon in the league. Teams will be much less likely to ever deal with you again. This really WOULDN'T be a smart move by another team.

Why wouldnt they offer Stallworht-like compensation. The Pats would never take it.
Besides, all you need to do is call the Pats ask what they want, and say its too much. You never really have to make an offer, just reject what they ask for. Who is to say what reasonable compensation is, when you are breaking the abnk for the guy?
You cannot tamper when the team gives you the right to negotiate.

Damn, I'd love the negotiate deals with the membership of this board, no one seems to understand deception and posturing.