This was really a great thread to read. THere were IMHO more well thought out posts by more people than any recent thread I've read here lately. That is probably WHY I changed my position about 3 times during my readings.
. At any rate here are my 2 Cents
1. The more I think on it, the more I believe that Samuel IS the real deal.
Last year wasn't a fluke, but merely the natural progression that we have seen from his kid over the past 4 years INTO an elite CB. He tackles well. I think he lead all CBs with tackles last season. He makes the big play. I think the point that his increase in interception has more to do with his new found ability to catch the ball, than his being around the ball, is an important distinction. He is simply a good cover corner, who NOW can make the big play.
BTW- we hope that Hobbs can make the leap from JUST defending the pass to taking away the ball this season.
2. We are all trying to speculate on the resolution of this impass WITHOUT knowing the 2 most important facts. WHAT are the Pats offering, and WHAT does Assante want. Well since no one knows for sure, I feel no guilt in speculating as well.
From all the rumors, we can reasonably guess that the Pats are offering something in the neighborhood of $6MM/yr with about $10-12MM Guaranteed. We are speculating that Samuel wants something in the neighborhood of $7+MM/yr with $18=20MM guaranteed. That is a pretty good gap, BUT not one that is insurmountable if BOTH parties are willing to compromise. A lot will depend on just how hard headed Samuel is in holding out for the last possible dollar.
To further complicate the issue, we have to try and guess what OTHER teams are adding to the equation. Just what ARE those offers that Assante is alluding to.
3. The other aspect of this that would be hard for us to figure out is exactly what the impact of any signing of Samuel would mean to the rest of the squad. Early I posted a hypothetical that the Pats would be able to sign only 2 of Warren, Wilfolk, and Samuel. Well the more money that the Pats give Samuel the MORE likely that this hypothetical will have to come to pass. Because as we should all know. The first rule of capology, is that
for every dollar you give one player; there is one less dollar for everybody else.
So regardless of what our opinions are of whether Assante is worth what he is asking, the Pats FO HAS to deal with not only the initial dollars, but the ramifications of the size of the contract on the rest of the roster.
For example the dollars that weren't spent on Branch and Law, allowed the signings of Thomas, Welker, and Stallworth. The signing of Samuel to a max contract might preclude us being able to keep all three of those players mentioned, as well a raise expectations of the rest of the roster
4. I fully agree that Samuel has the right, or even the obligation to stimulate negotiations that weren't going his way. There will NEVER be a better time for a FA of his ability to be on the market. Its not about how much he is worth. In this market place, which is talent poor, and money rich, its about how much he can get.
The only thing I would complain about is that while he should be allowed to say or do anything that might enhance his position, he shouldn't be offended if the FO uses information that enhances THEIR position.
5.My only complaint with all the players is that they and their media minions try so desperately to portray the Franchise tag as something near to slavery, when it jusy ISN'T. The only difference between the amount of money that Samuel is likely to earn by being franchised this year and next, and what he would earn if he got a LT contract of his liking, is that under the franchise tag he would be required to EARN that money with his play. With the LT deal he gets his money regardless.
6. As to what will happen over the next few weeks? I think that there is a less than 30% chance that someone will come up with a trade scenerio that will satisfy the Pats. The most likely scenerio is that Samuel will sign his tender a few day before the last exhibition game and will play out the year. Like I, and others have said in the past, leaving $5MM on the table just for pride is not a good business decision. Besides doing it that would would only hurt the team he has to eventually play for.
7. IF there does happen to be a trade, I have to disagree with Andy about how big the loss would be. Granted I would agree that any CB that was picked would NOT be as good as Assante in his first year. HOWEVER I have seen this team defense do very well WITHOUT a shut down CB (2004), and with LESS talent that is likely to be available next season. If the right trade came along I wouldn't hesitate for a minute to pull the trigger.
BTW- An example of the "right Trade" would be a first round pick this year 15 or above, a sencond next year and a 3rd the year after.
8. As long as the Samuel camp doesn't get acrimonious, I don't think that this will have any impact on the team in general. Walter Jones was franchised 3 years in a row, and it never hurt the Seahawks lockerroom. I personally believed that Jones just used the franchise tag as an excuse to miss most of training camp.
9. I take offense to those who felt AJ's original post was too long.
