Metaphors
In the Starting Line-Up
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Except you are not taking into effect that the Cowboys had a false start penalty making it 3rd and 18. I didn't think the pitch was the best call, but the only logical calls in that situation were conservative plays because the chances of converting 3rd and 18 is very low.
3rd-and-18 = Really, really bad situation
3rd-and-13 = Really bad situation
The only difference is 5 yards of field position on the punt, but I'm not sure the Cowboys get as many yards on the draw so it may not have mattered anyway.
Running on the first two downs is not a bad choice.
Unless you play to win the game. If your plan is to hope Tom Brady can't go 50 yards in 2:30 at home with a timeout in his pocket, then I agree it is a fine choice.
The Pats had more turnovers than points in the second half at that point. The drives for the Pats up to that pointed ended as follows - punt, fumble, interception, and three and out. You gotta trust your defense.
The Pats gained over 100 yds in 2 of those drives before committing uncharacteristic turnovers. Uncharacteristic meaning that you shouldn't expect them to happen again. So 50% of the time the Pats got into FG range but had their first lost offensive fumble of the year and a deflected pass that happened to bounce to a defender...sounds like leaving a lot of your fate to chance.
Again, the fact that in four possessions in the second half, the Cowboys defense held the Pats to zero points, it is reasonable to put the ball back in your defenses' hands.
Look at it another way...the Pats had 5 of 8 drives up to that point that ended in FG range. 3 scores and 2 turnovers. The point is that once the Pats get into FG range, they aren't going to take any chances since they are playing with house money at that point. So even only using this game as a meter (and ignoring Brady's history), the Cowboys couldn't have been overly optimistic with their chances after the punt. 50-50 chance for success at best.
Garrett didn't tell Tyron Smith to committ a false start penalty killing any shot of converting third down. People forget that happened.
"Listen Tony. If it were 3rd and 13, I would love to call a pass play and let you win the game. But now that it is 3rd and 18, well that is just too risky."
Yeah. I'm sure that is exactly what happened.
Also, they Pats had plenty of time in part because the Cowboys stupidly allowed the Pats to work the sidelines and pick up big yards. The Pats got three plays off before the half because the first two plays allowed the receiver to run out of bounds.
Those plays only gained 16 yards combined. The Pats never went hurry-up. Never spiked the ball. Didn't use their timeout until they were inside the 10. They got inside the Dallas 40 with 1:52 to play. They only needed a FG to tie. Left 27 seconds on the clock. Not sure what part of this says to you that the Cowboys could have funneled the receivers to the middle of the field, presumably giving up bigger yardage, and somehow that would have worked out better.
If the Cowboys had played better defense, there would have been a huge difference between 3:10 with 3 time outs and 2:31 and only one.
If you are saying that the Cowboys could have played better defense and run out the clock before the Pats gained 50 yards, you are crazy.
The problem is the Cowboys played a softer zone type coverage and allowed the Pats to pick up big chunks of yards and work the sidelines.
I see what the problem is. I was watching a different game. The game I was watching had 2 sideline routes to Gronk and Welker against man-to-man. The drive also had 3 passes to the middle of the field and a QB sneak.
If the Cowboys only allowed the Pats to get modest 5 yard gains and only complete passes over the center of the field those 40 or so extra seconds and time outs would have been huge.
The Pats only needed a FG to tie. Even at 5 yards a pop, the Pats would have only need 10 plays...which is exactly the number of plays they used and still left 27 seconds (3 more plays if they needed it).
Belichick probably would have done the same thing in that situation if Brady was struggling. You go with what is working. The Cowboys' defense was shutting down the Patriots offense or at least keeping them from scoring points. It was like Belichick going for it on 4th and 2. You try to win with what is working.
That is a hypothetical and so there is no way to prove it either way. Going on past evidence, I can't remember a time when Belichick would do this. Maybe when Brady when younger, but that isn't the situation with Romo.
As for going with what was working, that is exactly the point. Romo was having good success with short/safe passes on early downs. Add in the fact that the Pats were stacking the middle. I just think you play to win when you have the ball. Never leave rounds in the gun if there is a reasonable chance for the opposition to come back. The game it too slanted to the offensive side of the ball to trust your fate in an opposing offense failing. When that offense is lead by the GOAT...what do you expect to happen?
It is week six in the season. How does that work? Romo is an above average QB who is prone to make the big mistakes. At this point, the Cowboys gotta go and work around what they have. They can't go to the QB store and buy the next Tom Brady at this point.
They didn't just realize what they had in Romo this week. They have known for a while. They are trying to walk the "Romo is the guy/Please don't kill us" tightrope that inevitably leads to disappointment. My point was that Romo can't lead the team if you don't trust him. Might as well play Kitna and start thinking about the future during the offseason.