I'm calm, but not so much because I think the Pats will roll, but because I got so worked up over past AFCCGs (I was a wreck as Pittsburgh went from down 21-3 to 21-17 in 2001) and SBs (that 4th quarter of SB38 was crazy) that I make a point to not get so worked up anymore. The first 3 titles I watched at home alone with my wife because I was a cussing machine and didn't want to embarass myself amongst friends. Sunday we're having a handful of friends over, a complete change.
As for football reasons for being calm, there are overwhelming indicators that this Sunday should go well for the Pats:
1. Coaching edge - When people point to the Pats' upset of the Rams and give NY a chance because of this, they forget the Pats had the coaching edge in that game. I don't see Coughlin coming out ahead of BB in this one.
2. QB edge - When people say Eli has played well as of late, they point to things like his 4 TDs vs. NE and no INTs in the postseason. Well, that Pats game was his highest YPA in two years and although he didn't throw a pick in January, he didn't light up the opposition either. Brady throws 3 picks vs. San Diego and has a bum ankle and suddenly he's Mr. Vulnerable, but did everyone forget his 26/28 performance the week prior already? I'll take Brady over Eli who has played above his head lately.
3. Protecting the ball - Also back to that upset over the Rams, people picking NY also say that if those Pats could stop the "Greatest Show on Turf", then NY can stop this incarnation of a powerful offense. Again, people forget that the Rams were very cavalier with turning the ball over all year. Warner wasn't particularly concerned with INTs because he thought they could score at will. Brady puts a much higher premium on ball protection than Warner did.
4. The Pats' OL - Osi, Michael and Justin are supposedly going to wreak havoc in a Giants upset, but this isn't the Cowboys' line that fell apart in the 2nd half of that divisional game (a close one at that). This OL takes pride in giving Brady time and if they have problems early in games, they become bulletproof late in games. Look at the Colts game, the Giants game, the Jax and Chargers playoff games for proof. Heck, look at SB38. Brady will see some pressure, but this isn't going to be a repeat of SB20. In that case, the Giants are in trouble because...
5. The Pats' WRs vs. the Giants' DBs - This is a mismatch extraordinaire. Safety James Butler is a monster liability in pass defense. Sam Madison is well past his prime. The other corners are young and vulnerable. The Chargers played bump-and-run because they had the wind acting as an extra free safety so they had no fear of getting beat. If the Giants try this, they'll be looking at the backs of Moss and Stallworth. If they play off the WRs, Welker will have a repeat of his week 17 game.
6. Maroney is worth attention - His play in January can't be ignored, specially with Kyle Brady back. Unlike week 17 where the Giants didn't need to focus on him, they have to now after seeing what happened to San Diego. That should open up play-action and against that secondary, this is a great thing.
7. The Pats' DL - Say what you want about the "slow" LBs of the Pats, but Jacobs and Bradshaw have to get by the DL first. They are no slouches. They've been instrumental in keeping the vaunted Jacksonville and San Diego running games in check and will be asked to do the same vs. the Giants.
8. The Pats' DBs - Even if Plax lines up opposite Hobbs all game, things should go well. The Pats will rotate safety help to take Plax out of the game. Samuel can handle the past-his-prime Toomer one-on-one. If Steve Smith sees a lot of time as the 3rd WR, Randall Gay can keep him from doing much damage. LBs and Harrison can share coverage duties on TE Boss. I can't imagine the Pats allowing Plax single-coverage, so Eli will have to take on the one-on-one matchups with Toomer, Smith and Boss. Brady wouldn't mind, as he's shown this January by not throwing to Moss, but how will Eli handle that?
The biggest things the Giants have going for them are "ifs", such as "what if they can get Plaxico routinely open?" despite a D designed to keep him in check, or "what if Jacobs and Bradshaw can run all over them?" despite the Pats doing a good job vs. Jax and San Diego in this department. Seriously, they're chance hinges on things out of the ordinary happening, like fumbles returned for TDs or Brady having the worst game of his career. That doesn't mean that out of the ordinary things can't happen, because we already saw that stuff happen in SB38 when the Panthers scored 3 TDs over 30yds after the Pats hadn't allowed even one such TD all year or when the Pats lost both starting safeties in the 4th quarter. Strange things can and do happen, but even in that instance the Pats still won. The Giants need a similar set of cirumstances to occur. Don't bet on it.
Regards,
Chris
