If we ended up with the #3 pick...

[Synovia]

And I qualify the #3 overall pick as being the equivalent to two 1st round picks as well.

1 != 2 x 1

 

[bakes781]

1 != 2 x 1

2 MID FIRSTs!

Draft Countdown - Trade Value Chart

 

[BradyManny]

I agree with all of that, but its absurd for someone to say the #15 is worth more than the #3 to Belichick. Its not.

I don't think it is. I know somebody's done a new value chart where #12 is the most value pick in the draft or something. Those high picks are often untradeable b/c no one wants to get up that high and be albatrossed with those silly contracts. In 2010 - that could change a lot, in which case, the value will shift back to the top.

 

[Synovia]

I don't think it is. I know somebody's done a new value chart where #12 is the most value pick in the draft or something. Those high picks are often untradeable b/c no one wants to get up that high and be albatrossed with those silly contracts. In 2010 - that could change a lot, in which case, the value will shift back to the top.

#12 has the most surplus value. It does not have the most value. They are two completely different things.

 

[Synovia]

2 MID FIRSTs!

Draft Countdown - Trade Value Chart

And thats assuming the draft value chart is accurate, which, by judging the last couple years of trades, its absolutely not.

 

[bakes781]

And thats assuming the draft value chart is accurate, which, by judging the last couple years of trades, its absolutely not.

right well there are the exceptions where a team will do the unthinkable, but to expect to find a sucker every year is a bit unrealistic IMO. Persoanally I like to use logic with my trade suggestions, but that's just me.

 

[patchick]

I don't think it is. I know somebody's done a new value chart where #12 is the most value pick in the draft or something. Those high picks are often untradeable b/c no one wants to get up that high and be albatrossed with those silly contracts.

I'm definitely in the camp that says that the pay scale for the top handful of rookies makes no sense, but that doesn't mean that I'd take #12 over #3. Roughly #10-12 probably give you the optimal expected value per dollar, but that's not the only way to assess value. Assuming you have the cap space, #3 is still the route to the better player.

 

[zero]

How about a new scenario, trade it to Philly for their two first rounders and a 2nd in 2010, they will get the best LT (Runyan and Thomas are really old).
#21 OLB Aaron Maybin
#28 to Detroit for their 2nd and 3rd rounders
#33 CB/S Sean Smith

 

[bakes781]

How about a new scenario, trade it to Philly for their two first rounders and a 2nd in 2010, they will get the best LT (Runyan and Thomas are really old).
#21 OLB Aaron Maybin
#28 to Detroit for their 2nd and 3rd rounders
#33 CB/S Sean Smith

I could be wrong, but I don't think Philly is in a good position cap wise to be in the top #5 range.

And Detroit is not going to give up even one of their 3rds just to move up 5 spots into the late 1st.

 

[Synovia]

right well there are the exceptions where a team will do the unthinkable, but to expect to find a sucker every year is a bit unrealistic IMO. Persoanally I like to use logic with my trade suggestions, but that's just me.

I also like to use logic, and logic (and statistics) suggest that the #1 overall is not worth twice what the #7 is. If the chart is accurate, then you should be able to trade the #1 for 3 picks in the #16 range. Good luck with that.

Its not about "finding a sucker". Its about the fact that the only people who use that chart are people on forums on the internet.

 

[Synovia]

I could be wrong, but I don't think Philly is in a good position cap wise to be in the top #5 range.

You are wrong. Philly is $31M under the cap with 51 signed. (Philadelphia Eagles Salary Cap -- Home)

 

[bakes781]

I also like to use logic, and logic (and statistics) suggest that the #1 overall is not worth twice what the #7 is. If the chart is accurate, then you should be able to trade the #1 for 3 picks in the #16 range. Good luck with that.

Its not about "finding a sucker". Its about the fact that the only people who use that chart are people on forums on the internet.

Yeah in fact I'd like to take the credit for creating it myself, but the math is a little funny at #4 and a couple other spots in the 1st round.

 

[JSn]

The #3 would be worth ditching for the #16 in rds. 1 & 2, imo.

The reasoning there, to me, is the defense of player value. I do not believe ANY top 5 pick is ever going to be worth the price of signing him. Ever.

 

[zero]

And Detroit is not going to give up even one of their 3rds just to move up 5 spots into the late 1st.

You're right, so better #28 and #151 (1st and 5th) fot #33 and #97 (2nd and 4th) Trade value 691 vs 692

 

[Synovia]

The reasoning there, to me, is the defense of player value. I do not believe ANY top 5 pick is ever going to be worth the price of signing him. Ever.

In most cases, no, but QBs, LTs, DEs, etc, are all players where elite talent gets $10M+ a year.

Matt Ryan got 6 years, $72M at #3. In reality, its like 6 years, $60M. Elite QBs, like Brady, are getting $15+M a year, and in 2015, when Ryan's contract ends, they'll be getting much more than that. So in 2013, when an Elite QB is getting $25M/yr, Ryan will be an outright bargain at $10M. (P.Manning gets 22M right now)


At this point, $10M a year at QB gets you a mediocre starter.

 

[StyLeZ X]

I guess Curry was a beast at the combine workouts....I WANT HIM

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I guess Curry was a beast at the combine workouts....I WANT HIM

DITTO!!

If, and that is a BIG if, the Pats got to #3, it would be soley to get to Curry.

 

[dryheat44]

Well, I was being half-facetious about taking a lower pick that the #3. Of course, in a vacuum, you'd want the #3 if you thought the player was that good. In hindsight, Barry Sanders was well worth the #3. Joey Harrington was not.

However, if you don't think any available player is worth that much of a financial commitment, you can make an argument for the lower pick. Draft picks, and their salaries, don't exist in a vacuum. If drafting and signing Joey Harrington means you have no cap space to re-sign Vince Wilfork and Logan Mankins, and/or you lose out on a premium free agent like Karlos Dansby to the Dolphins because you're outbid, then a smart general manager might decide he'd rather take the #10, or whatever.

 

[patsox23]

If available, here's who I would take at #3:

1) Aaron Curry
2) Aaron Curry
3) Aaron Curry

 

[JSn]

Actually, Curry Mayo is pretty awesome. I wonder how much fear it could strike into offenses...