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If we ended up with the #3 pick...

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by JSn, Feb 22, 2009.

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  1. JSn

    JSn Rookie

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    What do you suppose we would do with it?

    I ask because I suspect there's an above average chance a pick-swap will be part of the deal. A deal that has already been constructed, but won't go down until draft day...
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2009
  2. Richter

    Richter Rookie

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    I think it would extremely difficult to move it, and even harder to move it on draft day, because teams aren't going to want to move up to take a guy that isn't a much better prospect than someone else they can get 10 or 15 picks later and pay a whole lot more money. The only likely scenario I can see that involves the Patriots acquiring the 3rd pick and moving down from it is if the Lions settle on an offensive tackle and the Rams go with a tackle or receiver. That would leave Stafford there to tantalize some team that needs a quarterback into moving up.
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Option One is more likely a trade down move, but with Light's contract expiring after next season...and Moss' after 2010...

    #1: Jason Smith
    #2: Michael Crabtree
    #3: Aaron Curry
    #4: Eugene Monroe
    ...it starts to get hazy here...
    #5: Jenkins/Raji
    #6: Maclin
  4. JSn

    JSn Rookie

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    That certainly makes a good case for getting he deal done early (besides freeing cap space). Maybe with a little extra time, the #3 can get traded for players or down for a swap of #1's and an extra #2...
  5. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That's actually the scenerio I see playing out, NE dangling Stafford and/or Crabtree and getting some movement.
  6. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'd expect there would be some draft day deals outlined ahead of time that would involve a move down...I'd actually hope Detroit jumps all over Stafford because one of the top OTs would really be serious trade bait...though I'd be mildly miffed at BB if he didn't draft Jason Smith if he slid down.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2009
  7. Richter

    Richter Rookie

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    I don't see Crabtree being worthwhile bait in that scenario unless his foot heals quickly and he absolutely kills it at his pro day. Otherwise, teams in need of a receiver will simply hope that he falls, since after Seattle, there aren't a ton of teams that wide receiver is a top need for in the top 10.
  8. Box_O_Rocks

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    I beg to differ: Cincy, Oakland, Jacksonville, SF all have serious WR issues. Yes, they wouldn't be there without serious issues all over, but even if Crabtree does get the surgery, I can see teams drooling over him - especially if he gets into the mid 4.5's.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2009
  9. Richter

    Richter Rookie

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    Those are all teams that I agree would look at a receiver, but they all need an OT more, funny enough. Cincy's position will depend a lot on what they think Ocho Cinco has left in the tank, and whether or not they think Jones can stay healthy for them at LT. Oakland is the other team most in need of a wide receiver there, but Davis hasn't drafted one high in a while and who knows what they'll do? Jacksonville also needs linemen way more than receivers and are thought to be coveting a tackle or a defensive lineman. San Francisco's situation depends a lot on whether or not they resign Alex Smith and Isaac Bruce. Any of those teams could go for Crabtree, but I don't think any team in the top 10 needs a receiver more than Seattle, and is prioritizing that position as highly. It's not a stretch to imagine Crabtree falling to 10 if his workouts are bad and someone reaches for Sanchez or Moreno. If he gets by San Francisco, it's a potential freefall, though I think they'd be crazy to pass him up there, since the best tackles will likely be off the board, Raji will be off the board and they'd have to reach for Freeman.
  10. Box_O_Rocks

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    I have no doubt they all have serious issues they might rather address ahead of a WR, but it's also fair to say they aren't the most well run clubs in the NFL... All speculation on our part, I just found myself coveting another team roper when I read about Jason Smith and got thinking about a trade with KC.
  11. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    My frist choice would be to keep the pick and take Curry. If Curry was off the board, I'd take Raji.
  12. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If by some chance we got the #3 pick, I'd like to see the Pats end up with one of Jason Smith, BJ Raji, or Aaron Curry. Ideally, I'd like to see a tradeback a somewhere later in the top 10.

    The best case scenario I can envision is something like the following:

    - Detroit takes Stafford at #1
    - St Louis takes either Crabtree or Jason Smith/Eugene Monroe at #2

    With a clear "top 2" OTs right now (Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe appearing to have separated themselves from Andre Smith and Michael Oher), I could see teams being eager to move up to get one of the top 2 OTs, especially if one was off the board. Jacksonville needs an OT in a bad way. I could see them trading us #8 plus their 2nd round pick to move up to #3 for their top rated OT, or for the remaining of the top 2 OTs. At #8, we could probably get BJ Raji.
  13. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

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    That would be a near-ideal scenario for me. 3-4 ready nose tackles are much more rare than 3-4 ready linebackers. Top 10 picks need to be spent on a rare find kind of football player. I would take Raji even if Wilfork extends.

    As far as the more glaring holes of pass rusher and go cornerback go, there will be several evenly valued players available throughout the first ten picks of the 2nd round.
  14. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    Sounds like russian roulette to me.
  15. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    I hear what you are saying about Raji. Given the Pats current situation I would have a hard time passing on the instant gratification that would come with drafting Curry who I project could be plugged in at ILB and have an instant impact similar to Mayo.
  16. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    I'd tske the movedown to 8-10 and them take one of the big four LOTs. The only way to get the :Big Uglies" is to have a premium pick, once you have one, use it on one of them...:D
  17. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

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    The #3 pick in the draft would not only be a starter, but would be expected to be an immediate impact player with Pro Bowl potential. Where would you play Raji if Wilfork extends? That said, he's the one player mentioned here I would not draft at #3.

    ---

    I agree with the above three if we were to remain at #3. I'd leave the order up to BB. My personal preference with such a high pick, is to trade down.

    #1: Jason Smith - he's been my favorite OT for a while now, but believing we'd have no chance of getting him. He's a franchise LT (not RT), which means Light moves to RT. After Light was drafted, BB mentioned how he had the ability to play there, but since then -- he never has.

    #2: Michael Crabtree - would immediately give the Pats the best WR trio in football. Will not have surgery on his foot (the stress fracture). Is still healing from a sore ankle, and will be ready to run his 40 at his March 26 private workout. And in the words of Scott Pioli:

    #3: Aaron Curry - with Wilfork hopefully extended, and Curry paired inside with Mayo, the D would be near dominant. Especially if we devoted the rest of the draft to upgrading the CB and Safety positions.
  18. Box_O_Rocks

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    Smith actually needs a year of development as as three-point stance run blocker. I can see him rotating in with Light and Kaczur, then taking over the first injury opening...and moving to LT next offseason, with Kaczur being re-signed and kicked inside to RG alongside Light.

    Brayd, Welker, Moss, and Crabtree would truly strike fear in NFL hearts.

    Curry and Mayo...I'd still go after Barwin or English or Cody Brown to develop outside, but the youth revolution would be over.
  19. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    With the Pats history of taking a WR early I would not take Crabtree. If he was Calvin Johnson who had no question marks and was just an all around great pick I could make an exception.
  20. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

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    True, Smith won't be handed the job from the get-go, but in order for him to have an opportunity to make an impact (sooner rather than later), he'll need as many reps as possible. One scenario is for him to arrive on time, receive 100% of the reps at LT during TC (Light doesn't need any time there), then a full pre-season vs NFL competition. All the while, Light is doing the same at RT. Evaluate both players throughout the process, with Nick as the backup at both RT and RG.

    All draft prospects are dealing with the NFL transition, and all develop at different paces. If, as you state, his run blocking needs some work, he may have the necessary time to improve during this pre-season. We, as fans, can't put a timetable on the development of rookies -- it's individually based.

    If, Smith isn't deemed ready this pre-season, return to the starting OL of '08.

    Never thought I'd be speculating about the #3 pick in the draft -- twas fun...although I won't be counting chickens.
  21. Box_O_Rocks

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    That's another way, but I'd expect the Pats to lean on Light at LT for the "franchise's" sake while giving Smitty every opportunity there was to get his reps. They could also move Mankins to RG and move Light inside next to Smitty...I don't expect to get the kid either, but it is fun to think what could happen with a prospect like that.
  22. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    its curry and everyone else

    I don't believe there is any such thing as good OT value at #3 unless there you run into outstanding physical characteristics in the for of a jonathan ogden........in a league where more and more teams are going 3-4, the athletic OT may benefit getting out there on a 3-4 OLB, but he is more of a liability in trying to drive a guy like richard seymour or most 3-4 DE's
  23. bakes781

    bakes781 Rookie

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    To imagine having the #3 pick overall I'd have to think what's in it for KC? You start with Cassel and the #23 obviously, but I think you'd have to throw in a 2nd or a 3rd as well. Chief's going from 3 to 23 is a HUGE drop and will not go easy. UNLESS you can get a 3rd team involved like say a Buffalo(@11) who's shown interest in Tony Gonzalez in the past. ;)
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2009
  24. rsd

    rsd Rookie

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    If you expect the Patriots to trade Cassel #23 AND a 2nd or 3rd for #3, that's absolutely ludicrous. People way overvalue the top end of the draft by using the old draft chart "value". #3 is definitely not worth that much in reality.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2009
  25. mayoclinic

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    I'm going to stick with the planet theory. If we have a top 10 pick I would like to see it spent on a 300 lb. impact player, and Jason Smith and BJ Raji would both be good values. I'm not sure we can count on any pick being an impact starter. Mayo kind of spoiled us in that regard. When we took Mayo with a top 10 pick everyone said he would be unlikely to make an impact his rookie year. Aaron Curry may be an exception like Mayo, but it may take him a year to get the hang of BB's complex defense. Jason Smith has played mainly in the spread offense. I think we could get as much value from Raji as anyone.

    Brady/Moss/Crabtree/Welker would be unreal. But I want defense.
  26. Richter

    Richter Rookie

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    I was about to post the same thing. A guy with a year of positive experience under his belt playing the most important position is worth more than any pick in the draft. In a draft like this where there is significant depth but not a clear cut crop of guys at the top, the top picks are worth even less.
  27. JoeShmoe

    JoeShmoe Rookie

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    ...I will run down my street naked .. it aint gonna happen. Period
  28. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I would say that there's an about-zero chance that will happen. Why would Belichick accept in a trade a pick he doesn't want? If he were offered the #3 pick, he'd be likely to counteroffer a second rounder and a first and fourth next year, or something like that.

    In fact, if one team offered the #3 pick, and another team offered the #6 pick, I'm not sure Belichick wouldn't take the latter.
  29. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm sorry, but I think that is just ridiculous.

    The #3 pick has tremendous value in BB's hands. The Pats have had a top 10 pick twice in his tenure as coach, and have done very well out of it with Seymour and Mayo. There are impact players available who could make an enormous difference to this already extremely talented team. The Pats have been extremely successful in finding value at the latter part of the first round, but that's totally different from saying that they would turn down the chance to acquire a true stud, or to trade back a bit and still get an impact player whom they would have no chance at with #23.

    2 years ago we had #24 and #28, and a lot of people were wishing that we could trade them both to move up and get either Laron Landry or Patrick Willis. How things have changed. Passing on #3 for #6 is laughable. With 2 QBs clearly well ahead of the rest of the class, 2 apparent franchise OTs, and a number of other compelling players, the Pats would either find value, trade back, or, most likely, do both.
  30. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    I do think that people tend to undervalue high draft picks here. But the only negative to a high draft pick are the financial ramifications, the pick itself being high isn't a negative in and of itself. Because obviously there are advantages to getting an impact/higher quality player at an early pick. IE See Mayo and Seymour.

    IMO the sweet spot in the draft from a talent/cash perspective start at pick #10. I said as much last year before the draft, and lo and behold the Pats traded down from #6 to #10. The contract that the #10 pick gets compared to the top 9 is pretty reasonable. So the teams that pick from the #10-16 area probably get the best deal. They are high enough up to have a reasonable chance of getting a blue chip/impact player, the salary demands for their picks are not exorbitant, AND they have the option of signing their pick to an extra year.

    If the Pats traded with KC it would be #3 for Cassel and #23 with nothing additional from the Pats or it would be KC's 2nd and 2010 1st. Those are the only scenarios I can see working. Some people want Gonzalez as a throw in. I'm not so enthused about that. And I'm absolutely opposed to picking up LJ as a throw in. We don't need an injury prone 30 year old RB with a BIG SALARY whom his team wants to dump anyways.

    USATODAY.com
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