If Connor Barwin was drafted at 23......

[Box_O_Rocks]

OK, according to PFW, Matthews has not reached his full potential and does have a huge upside. He is very coachable and hard working and devoted to football. He can play any of the LB positions. at 6-3 and 240 he is big enough to play the ILB spot for the Patriots and big enough to play the OLB spot. He could easily add another 10 pounds on an NFL program. He has risen in most of the respectable draft sites list from mid second round to as high as 20th.

Barwin is more of a gamble. Yes, he does have the physcial tools but he has not mastered any position. Why is he still shown as a mid second to high 3rd on most of the respected draft sites?

Maybe he'll be like Mayo and rise steadily between now and draft day. Again, the premise of the thread was drafting Barwin at #23, if the draft was held today. No one has really said why they would take him at #23 when a consensus has him listed mid 2nd round at best.

Is PFW evaluating him for a 4-3 or a 3-4? Which 3-4, Pittsburgh, Dallas, or NE? Based on reading their website notes, they start with the 4-3, then try to consider the 3-4, but tend to lean toward the one-gap 3-4's as a rule. He's a great first round value as a 4-3 OLB, not so much as a Pittsburgh 3-4 edge rusher, and really not a good fit for NE.

 

[bakes781]

What upside does Larry offer at OLB over Barwin? Both are conversion projects, and unlike Barwin, Larry has been knuckle down for four years, Barwin was playing in space at TE and is more athletic and has better physical measurables. No contest in my book.

While I'll agree that Barwin's ceiling is higher, in the 1st round I'm valuing a higher floor more. I'm not as willing to take a risk with the 1st round and we need a guy who can contribute immediately.

 

[ice]

I see #23 being the big question, not #34, 47 or 58. There will be plenty of values to choose from at those picks. Much as I like Barwin and want him on the Pats, if we lose out on him between #23 and #34 then we will just have to "settle" for Sintim, English or Matthews - not the end of the world. Unless there is a run on a position - OLB, or CB - and we're worried about missing out altogether then I'm not sure I see the benefit of reaching.

Wasn't there a thread on a value grouping theory a number of years ago

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

While I'll agree that Barwin's ceiling is higher, in the 1st round I'm valuing a higher floor more. I'm not as willing to take a risk with the 1st round and we need a guy who can contribute immediately.

Again, English is a conversion, how much more immediately does he contribute than Barwin and in what way?

 

[JoeShmoe]

So instead of your proposed 1st day, how about the following:

#23 - William Beatty, OT
#34 - Connor Barwin, LB
#47 - Sean Smith, CB/S (or Louis Delmas if Smith is gone)
#58 - one of the following: Clint Sintim/Larry English ILB; Jarron Gilbert DE; Alphonso Smith/Darius Butler/DJ Moore CB; William Moore/Patrick Chung S; Brian Robiskie WR; Alex Mack/Eric Wood OG/C.

It would be gravy to get all of them .. but no way Sean Smith goes at #47 .. like Cromartie last year the athleticism will see him go in the first

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I see #23 being the big question, not #34, 47 or 58. There will be plenty of values to choose from at those picks. Much as I like Barwin and want him on the Pats, if we lose out on him between #23 and #34 then we will just have to "settle" for Sintim, English or Matthews - not the end of the world. Unless there is a run on a position - OLB, or CB - and we're worried about missing out altogether then I'm not sure I see the benefit of reaching.

Wasn't there a thread on a value grouping theory a number of years ago

I think Dryheat may have linked to a value grouping discussion earlier, I didn't follow the link but that was what his comments made me think of.

Why "settle?" If he's your #2 choice and you have a better value planned for #23, that's one thing, but who's better at #23?

 

[dryheat44]

I think Dryheat may have linked to a value grouping discussion earlier, I didn't follow the link but that was what his comments made me think of.

No, it wasn't. However if you search posts by RookBoston (right? Or am I getting my posters confused?) for "value grouping" you should find it.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

No, it wasn't. However if you search posts by RookBoston (right? Or am I getting my posters confused?) for "value grouping" you should find it.

Yep, rook's the theorist, though his original work was lost in a server upgrade and I don't know if he recreated it.

 

[bakes781]

Again, English is a conversion, how much more immediately does he contribute than Barwin and in what way?

I have to believe he can start on opening day opposite AD. Enough to be more valuable to me at #23.

31.5 sacks and 54.5 tackles for loss in his career says all I need to know. He's converting from DE to LB. Not from basketball player to TE to DE to LB.

 

[ice]

Not to high Jack the tread but If i recall it's premis was based on the 2003 draft and Warren.

If we were targeting serveral players at our pick and we waited as Dline after Dline fell of the board until only one remained from a Vaule group, then we moved up to grab the last of the players in that value group. Like it was proposes we did with Warren

To put it back on topic, If Barwin, and Mathews and Sintim, English were all graded out for the number 34 pick, and three out of four weren't there, it would be possible to move up to grab one or wait to see if the fourth to us or move out. The group Would not have to be only lb's if you grade Sean Smith there you would add him to the grouping as well.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Is PFW evaluating him for a 4-3 or a 3-4? Which 3-4, Pittsburgh, Dallas, or NE? Based on reading their website notes, they start with the 4-3, then try to consider the 3-4, but tend to lean toward the one-gap 3-4's as a rule. He's a great first round value as a 4-3 OLB, not so much as a Pittsburgh 3-4 edge rusher, and really not a good fit for NE.

PFW had Matthews listed as a "good fit" for the Patriots defense.

Now lets take a sample of the draft ratings as of today.

NFLDraftscouts has Matthews ranked #20 and Barwin ranked #41
Scout.com Matthews #24 Barwin #63
GBN Matthews #21 #42

And God on HIgh, Mel Kiper had Matthews ranked as 26 on his to 32 and Barwin was not on the list.

So getting back to the original premise of the thread, why would we pick a guy ranked mid- to late second with #23?

 

[TheKraftyOne]

Barwin looked like a really good TE prospect at the Senior Bowl and IMO it's his best position. It could be his comfort level was much higher at TE but the man can play the position for whatever reason. I think he represents good value at 23 because he has all the intangibles going on and the potential to contribute in all three phases of the game early in his career. I wouldn't be surprised to see him taken and used in the pass rushing mix like Bruschi was in his rookie season but again, he looks like a very good TE prospect to me.

 

[midwestpatsfan]

This is all great discussion, and for me, I am in the same boat as Box. I just see to many teams between #23 and #34 that could be targeting Barwin as well. I just finished listening to some talk show that again mentioned Barwin being a late first/early second pick. Like Box has also said, the depth of players at other positions the patriots would logically be targeting all have more depth where you could pick up a solid CB, S, WR, OL in the second. For some reason, I just think we are going to hear Barwins name called at #23, Kiper and mayock may say we reached, but he seems to be great value for the patriots at that pick.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

PFW had Matthews listed as a "good fit" for the Patriots defense.

Now lets take a sample of the draft ratings as of today.

NFLDraftscouts has Matthews ranked #20 and Barwin ranked #41
Scout.com Matthews #24 Barwin #63
GBN Matthews #21 #42

And God on HIgh, Mel Kiper had Matthews ranked as 26 on his to 32 and Barwin was not on the list.

So getting back to the original premise of the thread, why would we pick a guy ranked mid- to late second with #23?

Because we're not paid to be ignorant about NE - we're the fans who live and breath this team and spend most of our time trying to understand the mystery of Bill Belichick.

What makes any of them experts on the 3-4? On NE's 3-4? Those same sites also had Logan Mankins as a 3rd round pick - at best (Kiper's hair still hasn't recovered from that episode). Do your own analysis and tell me what does Matthews bring to the table that Barwin doesn't, right now it's the USC brand name and his Daddy/Grandaddy, we may as well draft Prince Charles for President.

 

[dryheat44]

, we may as well draft Prince Charles for President.

Don't blame me...I voted for Prince Albert & that can of his.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I have to believe he can start on opening day opposite AD. Enough to be more valuable to me at #23.

31.5 sacks and 54.5 tackles for loss in his career says all I need to know. He's converting from DE to LB. Not from basketball player to TE to DE to LB.

Well, if you have to believe it then it's true. I believe I can eat an entire large double-pepperoni pizza and not gain weight myself. However, just to contiue my contrarian ways, Shawn Crable played DE and OLB at Michigan, Vince Redd played 3-4 OLB at Virginia and Liberty, Crable didn't start for four years like English, yet he's only 10 TFL behind him and was 2nd in the nation with TFL his senior year - at a higher level. What makes English so much better?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Don't blame me...I voted for Prince Albert & that can of his.

That explains Camilla's coolness.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Not to high Jack the tread but If i recall it's premis was based on the 2003 draft and Warren.

If we were targeting serveral players at our pick and we waited as Dline after Dline fell of the board until only one remained from a Vaule group, then we moved up to grab the last of the players in that value group. Like it was proposes we did with Warren

To put it back on topic, If Barwin, and Mathews and Sintim, English were all graded out for the number 34 pick, and three out of four weren't there, it would be possible to move up to grab one or wait to see if the fourth to us or move out. The group Would not have to be only lb's if you grade Sean Smith there you would add him to the grouping as well.

I believe subsquent NE drafts disproved the original theory and none of the following attempts to rework it have been convincing. NE has their draft board and has their value scores, there will be multiple players with similar values forcing BB to make a decision, much as we're doing here.

 

[mayoclinic]

It would be gravy to get all of them .. but no way Sean Smith goes at #47 .. like Cromartie last year the athleticism will see him go in the first

My listing them in that order was in response to another post, which had Barwin at #33 and Smith at #47. I agree that is a long shot. However, if you trade #47 and #89 to move up to around #33 or #35, then realistically you could have Beatty at #23, Barwin at #34, and Sean Smith/Louis Delmas at #33 or 35, plus one of the other players I listed at #58. Not a bad haul.

 

[patchick]

While I'll agree that Barwin's ceiling is higher, in the 1st round I'm valuing a higher floor more. I'm not as willing to take a risk with the 1st round and we need a guy who can contribute immediately.

"Need immediately" is an awfully strong statement with Adalius Thomas, Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable & Vince Redd on the roster. IMO the #23 pick isn't about plugging immediate holes (of which there are precious few). It's about adding a long-term impact player.