If Connor Barwin was drafted at 23......

[bakes781]

Part of that is the draft class, another part of that is the spread offense in college is forcing some of the better athletes to learn to play up more often and to react to coverage assignments and not just pin their ears back on each down.

Last LB class I remember being this deep was 2006

17) Chad Greenway
22) Manny Lawson
33) DeMeco Ryans
34) D'Qwell Jackson
35) Rocky McIntosh
38) Thomas Howard

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Just to be clear, I'm talking about starting spots that could be taken by rookies. I wouldn't spend #23 on Delmas or Chung....and I wouldn't spend it on a WR unless there was nobody else to take and trading down proved futile. And I would take probably Nicks or Heyward Bey over Robiskie just for their ceilings, but I think Robiskie would be the most likely of the trio to open the year at the X.

Ah, so Sintim starts outside in place of Woods or Thomas? And would Nicks playing opposite Moss be any less effective than Robiske with his higher floor?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Last LB class I remember being this deep was 2006

17) Chad Greenway
22) Manny Lawson
33) DeMeco Ryans
34) D'Qwell Jackson
35) Rocky McIntosh
38) Thomas Howard

Yep, and only Greenway out of that bunch would make me interested now, though I was hot for Lawson back then. I've tried to learn from past folly so I can invent new and improved folly! :singing:

 

[dryheat44]

Ah, so Sintim starts outside in place of Woods or Thomas? And would Nicks playing opposite Moss be any less effective than Robiske with his higher floor?

Sintim either starts over Woods or rotates in with him. I think Sintim might already play the run better, but we'll see.

I think Nicks is going to need some time to adjust to an NFL passing attack. I have no doubts about Robiskie being able to get open against various coverages, run every route in the tree crisply, and catch everything in his area code.

 

[Seneschal2]

Word on the street (from fairly reliable sources), say that Barwin has currently risen into a solid round two prospect. The fact that the Pats have 3 second-rounders, one of which is the second overall pick in that round (#34), might make one think that would be the safest slot to select him. However, are there any 3-4 teams between #23 and #34 who need to fill the position? If so, the Pats options would be to select him at #23, or position themselves in front of the competition by leapfrogging from #34. This draft strategy will be determined by two factors: The Pats own mock draft based on other teams needs. And their own moles (so and so is very high on Barwin, etc.).

Of course most of us are in agreement that Barwin is a legitimate Pats prospect, and I seriously doubt he's not high on their board. But what's missing here is the possibility that the Pats value another prospect equally (or higher) than Barwin, and that prospect is the primary target at #23, leaving Barwin as a hope-he's-still-there pick at #34.

Find the potential Barwin suitors:

24 Atlanta
25 Miami
26 Baltimore
27 Indianapolis
28 Philadelphia
29 N.Y. Giants
30 Tennessee
31 Arizona
32 Pittsburgh
33 Detroit

 

[bakes781]

Miami at 25 certainly jumps out but they also have needs at WR and CB. The resigning of Crowder may play a role.

With the lack of depth at CB I'd be more concerned with missing out on a top prospect at that position.

 

[cstjohn17]

Miami at 25 certainly jumps out but they also have needs at WR and CB. The resigning of Crowder may play a role.

With the lack of depth at CB I'd be more concerned with missing out on a top prospect at that position.

I agree but disagree, the CB crop does look thin (agree) but I wouldn't reach for a CB early just because of the lack of depth. Most of the teams CBs slots are full, Springs, Hobbs, Wilhite, Wheatley are almost locks for the first 4 slots. They will likely have one more spot for a FS/CB hybrid (Travis Daniels or Lewis Sanders). A draft pick will be added to challenge the bottom 3 (Wheatley, Wilhite & the JAG tbd).

 

[bakes781]

I guess I just feel more comfortable with saying Butler is a solid 1st round value over Barwin.

In the end that 34th pick does give us a ton of flexibility with our 1st round pick.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Find the potential Barwin suitors:

24 Atlanta
25 Miami
26 Baltimore
27 Indianapolis
28 Philadelphia
29 N.Y. Giants
30 Tennessee
31 Arizona
32 Pittsburgh
33 Detroit

Make it more challenging, find the one(s) who's not.

Atlanta is rebuilding, could Barwin be another edge rusher across from Abraham or could he be the SLB and move their current one inside?

Miami - they are looking for an OLB to play across from Porter and Parcells drafted Ware.

Baltimore, do they use versatile LBs in their defense?

Indy, do they use non-standard edge rushers?

Philly, those bastitches have stolen two of my primary LBs - DO NOT TRUST!

NYG moved Kiwanuka to SLB, wouldn't Barwin allow him to play knuckle down full time?

Tennessee - does Jeff Fisher value an edge rush?

Arizona - They want to play a 3-4.

Pittsbugh - no, they'd never be interested.

Detroit - SLB or DE, would he work out there?:banned:

 

[bakes781]

As for a hybrid, Sean Smith is good value at #23 IMO. Otherwise I value Alphonso Smith as a mid 2nd rounder and at S, Chip Vaughn as a late 2nd.

 

[bradmahn]

Make it more challenging, find the one(s) who's not.

Atlanta is rebuilding, could Barwin be another edge rusher across from Abraham or could he be the SLB and move their current one inside?

Miami - they are looking for an OLB to play across from Porter and Parcells drafted Ware.

Baltimore, do they use versatile LBs in their defense?

Indy, do they use non-standard edge rushers?

Philly, those bastitches have stolen two of my primary LBs - DO NOT TRUST!

NYG moved Kiwanuka to SLB, wouldn't Barwin allow him to play knuckle down full time?

Tennessee - does Jeff Fisher value an edge rush?

Arizona - They want to play a 3-4.

Pittsbugh - no, they'd never be interested.

Detroit - SLB or DE, would he work out there?:banned:

I might say Pittsburgh is the only team of that list that wouldn't take an edge-rusher in the first round.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

.......excerpt....

I'm curious to get your thoughts. I strongly believe any value pick at #23 is somebody who is going to contribute on offense or defense in Year 1. They take up too much cap room and have too short a contract span to be redshirted.

Dryheat, I like 95% of what you say 100% of the time
You have more football knowledge in your pinkies fingernail than I have in my entire medulla oblongata.

But that last paragraph has me all discombobulated.

What you said above is exactly NOT how I feel about first rounders for the Pats system. What you said is how I feel the best way for a Pats 2nd rounder as a first rounder you have for one extra year (5 year contract).

Reason being (specifially for Pats) - from what I have seen, BB likes to bring rookies into the mix slowly. (we know Mayo is the vast exception). Not only because of the complex BB defensive schemes, but also because his defense is predicated on the fundament of not allowing the big play. BB just doesn't trust the rookie defenders on gameday to not wilt under the pressure and make a bonehead blunder (out of position or bite on a play fake, etc.) and give up a big play. Not only could that be at a critical juncture or momentum swinger, but also because you can damage the confidence / ego of a (hopefully) rising star. Plus the rookies don't yet understand the entire concept of 'situational' football that BB loves to teach.

So since most defenders (Seymore /Mayo exceptions) will be likely 'redshirted' / or used sparingly their first year in the Pats D - then at least a 1st rounder you have for 4 more years while 2nd rounder you are down to (hopefully) 3 productive years after their Pats system redshirt year.

So I would much rather at #23 take a guy (ex. Barwin) with the much greater upside than the safer pick (Simitin) who might contribute alittle more in first year but have lower ceiling. The tweener will get their year to aclimate to NFL and Pats complex scheme regardless.

P.S. A side note : thanks all (BOR, PNMe, DryH, ...others) for a great thread. I have learned alot of interesting info on the potential draftees. I don't get to see any college football in Denmark. One observation about maybe why all of (even the Pats fanatical draft followers) predictions are way off : As BB values greatly football IQ and the aforementioned 'situational' football, we no longer get to see Wonderlic scores while we only do see combine results. We don't get to hear the results of BB giving a chalkboard or game tape pop-quizes to the potential draftees. And we don't get any access to the interviews with draftees former coaches about their football acumen (smarts). So a very important source of info - greatly valued by BB / Pats scouts is unknown to you heavythinking (drinking?) Pats 'draftniks'. So don't feel too bad about your misses. Keep up the good work and insiteful (but not inspiteful) analysis. Very educational!

 

[VJCPatriot]

Find the potential Barwin suitors:

24 Atlanta
25 Miami <-- 3-4 D. Parcells is in development year 2. In the 1st year he strenghtened the lines. He could go playmaking OLB this year. He previously drafted Demarcus Ware while in Dallas.
26 Baltimore <-- 3-4 D. They have been depleted defensively and might be looking to restock their linebacker cupboard.
27 Indianapolis <-- They value speed more than size. However Barwin might fit in here as a 4-3 rush end because his athleticism is through the roof.
28 Philadelphia <-- They love to take Patriots type prospects. See Bradley Stewart.
29 N.Y. Giants
30 Tennessee
31 Arizona
32 Pittsburgh <-- 3-4 D. They never pay free agents, so they restock continuously through the draft.
33 Detroit

So if you can run through the gauntlet without any of the 3-4 teams or Indy or Philly taking Barwin, then you're homefree at #34 to take Barwin. Honestly I wouldn't take the chance. And I don't see that many compelling values that are better than Barwin at #23.

 

[bakes781]

I wouldn't focus so much on the difference in years of the contract as I would the guaranteed $. With that said, it wouldn't shock me one bit if the Pats decided to trade the 23rd for a pick in 2010.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

P.S. A side note : thanks all (BOR, PNMe, DryH, ...others) for a great thread.

De nada.


.....

 

[Water Boy]

I

That leaves me with 5 players that I would love to fall to somewhere within range of us: 2 OT's (Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe), 1 WR (Michael Crabtree), 1 DT (BJ Raji), and 1 LB (Aaron Curry). The chance of us even being remotely close enough to trade up for one of those 5 players is extremely remote.

So unless a minor miracle occurs, I see us either using #23 on one of those 21-60 players, or trading the pick - either trading back, trading into 2010, or trading for a player.

Good point by you, Mayoclinic.

 

[PATSNUTme]

I've changed my mind. We should draft Connor

Barwin at #23.

Then we should draft Conner

Barwin with the 34th pick just to make sure we have drafted him.

 

[dryheat44]

Dryheat, I like 95% of what you say 100% of the time


What you said above is exactly NOT how I feel about first rounders for the Pats system. What you said is how I feel the best way for a Pats 2nd rounder as a first rounder you have for one extra year (5 year contract).

Yes, that is true. But assuming Belichick doesn't whiff on a first round pick, the player is going to be at least a minor star for this team...a part of the nucleus. And unless he's truly an invaluable player, such as Seymour or Warren (and hopefully Wilfork), his second contract is going to come from another team. I think Belichick wants contributions in all five years of that player's fairly significant contract. Graham left after his first deal expired. Watson's as good as gone after this year. Unless Mankins wants a deal well below market, he'll be gone as well. Maroney will also be replaced with someone younger and cheaper when his time comes. There's no advantage in getting an extra year of a guy if he's not contributing. And the only one you can make the argument didn't contribute as a rookie was Meriweather, which I think was a special case, since safety was the only available spot on that team, and Rodney's future was uncertain come draft time. Again, don't confuse "contribute" with "start". If a guy like Barwin can get 15 snaps a game as a 3rd down rusher, that's a significant contribution. If Butler outplays the other CBs to win the nickel job, or if Shawn Nelson plays himself into the #2 TE, those are significant contributions.

So I would much rather at #23 take a guy (ex. Barwin) with the much greater upside than the safer pick (Simitin) who might contribute alittle more in first year but have lower ceiling. The tweener will get their year to aclimate to NFL and Pats complex scheme regardless.

There is also a chance Barwin, to use your example, fails to make the transition, and is gone two years from now. I mean, at #23, take the one you like better, for whatever reason. I like Sintim better...and I don't know why it's assumed Sintim's ceiling is lower. If we were drafting decathletes, I'd get it. But we're drafting football players. I think they both have the potential to be Pro Bowl players. But purely as a theoretical exercise, if the floors are equal, then take the higher ceiling. If the floors are unequal, but the ceilings are as well, and you're confident you as a coach can find that ceiling by season three, then it's a judgment call.

Or to put it another way, which is closer to the way you phrased the example, if I have the choice of five years of Sintim vs. four years of Barwin, I'd take Sintim unless I was damn sure that Barwin was going to be better by more than 20%.

P.S. A side note : thanks all (BOR, PNMe, DryH, ...others) for a great thread. I have learned alot of interesting info on the potential draftees. I don't get to see any college football in Denmark. One observation about maybe why all of (even the Pats fanatical draft followers) predictions are way off : As BB values greatly football IQ and the aforementioned 'situational' football, we no longer get to see Wonderlic scores while we only do see combine results. We don't get to hear the results of BB giving a chalkboard or game tape pop-quizes to the potential draftees. And we don't get any access to the interviews with draftees former coaches about their football acumen (smarts). So a very important source of info - greatly valued by BB / Pats scouts is unknown to you heavythinking (drinking?) Pats 'draftniks'. So don't feel too bad about your misses. Keep up the good work and insiteful (but not inspiteful) analysis. Very educational!

You flatter me. I'm not sure it's deserved.

 

[patchick]

I've changed my mind. We should draft Connor

Barwin at #23.

Then we should draft Conner

Barwin with the 34th pick just to make sure we have drafted him.

NOW you're talking sense!

Let's dial up the

quotient to 11. Several posters have broken down the many potential suitors from 24-33. But what about these?

16. Chargers
17. Jets
18. Bears
19. Buccaneers
20. Lions
21. Eagles
22. Vikings

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

NOW you're talking sense!

Let's dial up the

quotient to 11. Several posters have broken down the many potential suitors from 24-33. But what about these?

16. Chargers
17. Jets
18. Bears
19. Buccaneers
20. Lions
21. Eagles
22. Vikings

Again, I could see any of them finding a use for him in their systems, the issue here is who "these" teams are:

SD - a playoff team that got in by virtue of a weak division, they have serious holes to fill, do they want to increase their depth at OLB to improve their chances if they lose Merriman or Phillips again?

Jets - a team that flopped and is going full force to reproduce the Baltimore defense, Barwin would be very desirable addition - what other holes do they need to fill?

Bears - They badly need to rebuild their defense, but their greatest need is perhaps at O & D Tackle.

Buccaneers - Jim Bates, this is a major oh crap, any chance he wants another Jason Taylor?

Lions and Eagles have already been addressed.

Vikings - Their DTs are getting old, they just lost their favorite Safety, they appear to have other directions to go here.