Welcome to PatsFans.com

If Connor Barwin was drafted at 23......

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by midwestpatsfan, Mar 5, 2009.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. midwestpatsfan

    midwestpatsfan Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2004
    Messages:
    693
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    #95 Jersey

    Would you be mad because right now he is rated more in the early to middle of the second round, so this would be considered a reach by most of the professional draftniks out there.

    For me, I do not really have a problem with it. I would love to think I could have him at the 47th pick, but after his combine, that seems unrealistic.

    Thoughts?
  2. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2005
    Messages:
    15,133
    Likes Received:
    27
    Ratings:
    +30 / 0 / -0

    #75 Jersey

    There is a lot of [​IMG]for Barwin on this board.

    But, why would you draft someone in the first round, when you know that he will there for you in the second. Why not take Clay Mattews in the first and Barwin in the 2nd?

    BTW, that [​IMG]should be the official Conner Barwin symbol of patsfans.
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2009
  3. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2004
    Messages:
    2,365
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    Its easy for Pats fans to fall in love with Barwin because he looks like an heir apparent to Mike Vrabel. The measurables are there, however, I would be surprised if the Pats took him in the first round.
  4. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    19,975
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +28 / 1 / -0

    Most of us see little difference in the players who will be available from 21-60. I would expect us to have one value board for 21-60. So, as long as the patriots want Barwin, he would not be a reach at 23.

    HOWEVER
    1) I don't believe that the patriots really want Barwin. I just don't see him as a starter by the end of his first season, or even close. That would be my hope for #23.
    2) I believe that someone who the patriots have on their 11-20 board will drop and we will pick him, even if we need to use our 3rd or 4th to trade up. This will be even more likely if we end up with compensatory picks in the 3rd and 4th.
  5. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    12,376
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    I personally see Barwin being taken with the #34 pick more than with #23, at least at this point. I do see him as becoming a starter by the end of the year, with Woods being a 1 year caretaker as a starting OLB.

    The problem that I have is that almost all of the players that I like for the Patriots are probably somewhere in the 21-60 range: Barwin, Clint Sintim, Larry English, Clay Matthews at LB; Jarron Gilbert at DE; Sean Smith, Alphonso Smith, DJ Moore and Darius Butler at CB; Louis Delmas, Patrick Chung and William Moore at S; William Beatty and Eben Britton at OT; and Alex Mack, Mack Unger and Eric Wood at OG/C. Not to mention WR options (Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Brian Robiskie).

    There aren't that many 1-20 prospects that I see as really meeting the Pats' needs and system, and who have even a remote chance of falling. I don't really want Malcolm Jenkins or Vontae Davis. There's no safety worth a top-20 pick. I don't think Brian Orapko will be a good OLB conversion, and I'm not sure about Everett Brown, Aaron Maybin or Michael Johnson. I don't think Maualuga is worth a 1st round pick, not to mention Laurinaitis. I don't want Jeremy Maclin or Darius Heyward-Bey. We don't need a TE and I think that Brandon Pettigrew is only a slightly better version of Chris Baker anyway. We certainly don't need a QB. I don't think either Andre Smith or Michael Oher is right for the Pats.

    That leaves me with 5 players that I would love to fall to somewhere within range of us: 2 OT's (Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe), 1 WR (Michael Crabtree), 1 DT (BJ Raji), and 1 LB (Aaron Curry). The chance of us even being remotely close enough to trade up for one of those 5 players is extremely remote.

    So unless a minor miracle occurs, I see us either using #23 on one of those 21-60 players, or trading the pick - either trading back, trading into 2010, or trading for a player.
  6. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    11,112
    Likes Received:
    26
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -0

    Nut, you know he'll be there in the 2nd? If the Patriots think Barwin's good enough to at least be in the mix at #23, then it's very, VERY plausible that the guy who spent #1 picks on Willie McGinest, James Farrior, DeMarcus Ware and Bobby Carpenter would target him at #25.

    As for both Matthews & Barwin, personally I think the opportunity cost is too high. I'm not inclined to pass up on a top OL, DB, DL or even WR to take 2 OLBs that early.
  7. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2006
    Messages:
    4,978
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 2 / -0

    Great points, I am now taking him at 23, 24, 47 & 48!

    I don't consider it out of the realm of possibility, he seems like a round 1-2 tweener to me. Same general range as Merriweather, Maroney and Mankins.

    The 40, bench, short shuttle, short long shuttle and shuttle shuttle times were great but I was most impressed that he weighed 255. That means he can pretty much play in the NFL at OLB from day 1, he doesn't need a red shirt year like Crable did or like Matthews will.

    In some ways Barwin seems like a safe pick, I don't expect Ware numbers but he should be a solid contributor with some potential to be a very good starter.
  8. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    12,376
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    Agreed. If BB think that Barwin is value at #23 and won't last till #34, then he won't care where anyone else rates him.

    I also don't see 2 LBs with our first 2 picks. Perhaps in some scenarious we could take one OLB and one SILB, such as Barwin and Sintim/English. But even that is unlikely, as we have other areas to address.
  9. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2006
    Messages:
    12,304
    Likes Received:
    17
    Ratings:
    +23 / 1 / -0

    I think that Barwin is a better OLB prospect than Matthews. So I wouldn't have a problem with drafting Barwin in the 1st round. My big concern is that Parcell's Dolphins draft #25, right after us. So we're taking a big risk that another 3-4 team doesn't take Barwin before we get to our 2nd round pick.

    There will still be an excellent DB available at the top of the 2nd round, so why NOT take your #1 OLB prospect in round 1? Some suggest taking an offensive lineman in the 1st round, but I think there are plenty of good OL available in round 2 as well where we have THREE picks. If Barwin goes, I can settle for Sintim in round 2, but those two are worlds apart in terms of athleticism and I see Sintim as an ILB anyways.
  10. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    11,112
    Likes Received:
    26
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -0

    The thing about Matthews is that it took him years of intense work in USC's NFL-caliber training program to bulk up to his current 240. In the words of NFLDraftScout, "dedication in the weight-room is obvious in his physique." So 240 is likely where he tops out.
  11. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2006
    Messages:
    4,978
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 2 / -0

    I agree, going from 180 to 240 scares be a bit, plus he looks lean. I see him as a 4-3 OLB or a pure pass rushing end. He does seem to have a good burst as a rusher but I think Barwin brings more to the table.
  12. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2005
    Messages:
    23,735
    Likes Received:
    47
    Ratings:
    +53 / 0 / -1

    #50 Jersey

    Let's review the 1st round picks the Pats have made. Seymour, Graham, Warren, Wilfork, Watson, Mankins, Maroney, Meriweather, Mayo.

    Graham wasn't a full time starter during his 1st season. Neither were Warren, Wilfork, Meriweather, or Maroney. But they did contribute. And that is something that someone as athletic as Barwin can do. Contribute. Both on special teams and I believe as a 3rd down pass rusher. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Barwin starting at OLB during his 2nd season. Here is a guy who played TE when he entered college and then switched to DE and still put up more sacks than a lot of other players. Barwin is a football player. And it would be silly to sell him short.
  13. CanadianPat'sFan

    CanadianPat'sFan Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    1,025
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Mike Mayock was on Total Access tonight talking about Pat White and Barwin being able to play multiple positions in the NFL. He said while most of the NFL is looking at Barwin as a DE or OLB if he were to draft him he would plug him in right away at TE. He thinks his toughness playing on the DLine will help him and with his size and speed would be able to get deep and fight SS and FS for the ball and be more athleatic then LB's who would have to cover him.

    I think that if we get Barwin we get him to focus on OLB as I think he has the intangibles to be great there. Maybe have some goal line TE reps but mostly get him to focus on OLB and let him grow.
  14. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    Well, let's look at the roster situation first:

    - What is NE's greatest "need?"
    ---- With Shawn Springs signed they have a veteran CB to push the youngsters on the roster.
    ---- With James Sanders signed they have their starting Safeties returning.
    ---- The starting OL are back.
    ---- The RB depth is good.
    ---- #3 WR is still up for grabs, but the competition has gotten a little better.
    ---- RB seems pretty deep.
    ---- TE depth is looking good.
    ---- The starting foursome for LB is still up in the air, but does anyone expect to draft a starting LB at #23?
    ---- Long Snapper is still unsettled.
    ---- There's room for some depth at S.
    ---- There's room for some competition behind the OL, CB, & WR starters.

    Based on that assessment, there's no 'critical' need that has to be addressed at #23. That leads to 'Best Patriot Value.'

    - Is Connor Barwin a Patriot Value?
    ---- He's got prototypical size for OLB and TE.
    ---- He's got the athletic ability for either position.
    ---- He's a Special Teams' demon.
    ---- He seems to have the intelligence and football IQ necessary for a Patriot.
    - Is he the "best" value?
    ---- He seems to have a high ceiling.
    ---- He can contribute immediately on Special Teams.
    ---- He can contribute as a reserve TE.
    ---- He'll need time to develop at OLB, but that's mostly a matter of learning technique for pass rushing and setting the edge (he has the size and spirit for the job), he has an understanding of routes to speed along his coverage training.

    I'm open to anyone offering another option (PATSNUTMe's Matthews lust is for an undersized option who like Crable would have to bulk up before he could handle the job, it would also help if he hadn't been trained as a block avoiding wimp by ol' Petey), as long as they don't mind me "discussing" their choices.

    Frankly, BB has four picks where he can take the players who have the highest upside as 'Best Patriot Values.' I consider Barwin to be the option with the highest upside, take it from there.
  15. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2008
    Messages:
    2,160
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    haha because you never know
  16. JoeShmoe

    JoeShmoe Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,623
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Im not entirely up to speed on all the class but is Barwin better than say English or Cushing? What if Sean Smith is there at #23 and one of Barwin, Sintim, English etc is still there at #34
  17. aaron spacemuseum

    aaron spacemuseum Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2008
    Messages:
    25
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Sintim.

    He's started in what essentially is BB's defensive system for the last three years and thrived. That doesn't include two years spent learning and absorbing it. Barwin might turn into a better player down the road, but Sintim has the smallest learning curve of any OLB prospect in the draft and that makes him an immediate asset.
  18. DocE

    DocE Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2008
    Messages:
    513
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    I agree that Barwin has a ton of qualities that the Patriots tend to look for in a draft pick. I would say that Clay Mathews has many of the same qualities as Barwin. Mathews is a "special teams demon" and appears to be an ascending player just like Barwin. Mathews would seem to have just as much of a football IQ as Barwin does. The combine results for these players were remarkably similar with the biggest difference being Barwin weighing 16 lbs more than Mathews.

    What both players lack (and the Patriots tend to love in draft picks) is a history of production. Barwin and Mathews both came on strong as Seniors (Barwin moreso than Mathews in the stats department), but neither even started on defense prior to their Senior years.

    I like both guys, but I am not sure I like either at no.23. Ideally, I'd like to solve the OLB need through FA/trade and look elsewhere at no.23. I'd consider both Barwin and Mathews in the 2nd round (and be happy with either) under that scenario.
  19. slash83

    slash83 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2006
    Messages:
    3,201
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0 / -0

    I can't wait till the draft. I think the pats are gonna come out with some real players.
  20. JSn

    JSn Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2008
    Messages:
    7,449
    Likes Received:
    32
    Ratings:
    +32 / 0 / -0

    I'm not feeling the love for Barwin, personally. I think Kraft should throw some coin at a negative PR capaign on Aaron Curry so we can get him at #23.

    ;)
  21. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2006
    Messages:
    2,221
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    Very much how I view round one, the value, and the Pats options. Actually -- almost word for word. :)
  22. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2004
    Messages:
    6,267
    Likes Received:
    12
    Ratings:
    +21 / 1 / -0

    #75 Jersey

    Me too. I don't think the Patriots have an 11-20 board. Myself, and I'm not a Pro Scout, I have a total of 8 players that are first round values for the Pats, and another 7 that are on the 1/2 fence. If we draft at 23, we're almost certainly going to be "reaching" for someone. I mean, ideally I'd trade 23 back to maybe 28 and pick up a 1st or 2nd in 2010, but unless the mind-bogglingly weird happens at the draft, like Curry getting caught with four hookers and a dump truck full of blow, we'll be reaching, whether it be for Barwin, Beatty, Sintim, Smith or Butler. So that's where the drop-off rule comes into effect. Belichick might have Butler and Smith; Sintim and Barwin all grouped together as early-second round picks. He might gamble that he might be able to pluck one of the OLBs at #34, but thinks that both CBs will be gone, and his next favorite CB is a steep downgrade. Therefore, he should draft his preference of Smith or Butler.


    Here's the logic I'm talking about.

    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...-combine-draft-game-youre-gm.html#post1306391
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2009
  23. MetalBleachers

    MetalBleachers Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2007
    Messages:
    1,280
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I think you're right, but I also think the Pats will look at a grading curve for players. If Sintim can contribute right away but will stay at the same level, do they take him over a guy like Barwin who a) is more athletic and b) has a proven ability to adapt (hoops, TE, DE).

    In other words, who will be a better player in three years, Sintim or Barwin? Based on his track record, I'd say Barwin. But, if you're thinking about putting Sintim in the middle to take advantage of his size and knowledge of the system, now you're talking.
  24. CanadianPat'sFan

    CanadianPat'sFan Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    1,025
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I like #23 but see exactly what you are talking about. Remember last year I thought that Mendenhall would be a lock for a Top 15 pick and he slid all the way to #23. The trade down scenario would work if nobody slips as we are targeting a a lot of guys between 20 - 40 as you mention above. The Eagles have two picks in that area as well so trading down with them to 28 may be in BB plans.
  25. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2005
    Messages:
    15,133
    Likes Received:
    27
    Ratings:
    +30 / 0 / -0

    #75 Jersey

    None of us know who the Patriots are targeting on draft day. Just going from what I have been able to learn and looking at the early consensus of rankings Barwin is a 2nd rounder. We have a pick a the top of the second round and in the middle, so why not use one of those on Barwin?

    Matthews has been rising on most boards. He has a good upside and I'm looking at him to be around the 20th to 25th pick. He has all the things that you look for in a Patriots player. Actually I'm looking for him to play inside next to Mayo which would then give Guyton a shot outside.

    Now Barwin is on my list as a 1st day pick right now. He does have a lot to learn but I like the player. Just when to pull the trigger is the debate. As of today, I don't think the Patriots need to use #23 on him.
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2009
  26. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    12,376
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    Wow, high praise. Thanks. :)
  27. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    Isn't draft strategy fun!

    Sintim answers those clammering for instant defensive contributor with a 3-4 "college" OLB. Lower learning curve, lower ceiling.

    Moving Sintim inside shifts the equation. If you've determined ILB has a higher need and Sintim is a good SILB prospect, then you draft him earlier...but with more risk involved because you're betting he will be capable of moving inside, and Barwin will be there at a later pick (if you even want him).

    Now, if you took Sintim, and Bill Parcells has his minions take Barwin, is there anyone else in the draft whom you think might come close to Barwin's potential? Only Cody Brown in my book, and he's carrying a lower overall score at the very end of the second/early third...a full round later. There are those who assure me Jasper Brinkley is the answer at SILB, I'm not buying it, but he would be there later. We read speculation here about Guyton being capable of filling in at SILB, a possibility that only the coaches can answer before the draft. I think later round/UDFA options for SILB include Robert Francois and Dan Skuta, possibly Tyronne McKenzie and Frantz Joseph, I think Dan Shaughnessy is worth a try there, Cody Brown himself, Jason Williams, Lee Robinson, Victor Butler, Johnny Williams, Cody Glenn, Norris Slade, Scott McKillop, Josh Mauga, Brit Miller...there are lesser-valued options.

    The drop-off from Barwin to Cody Brown appears to be one round, from Brown to the next best OLB prospect - probably Larry English who should be moved inside - doesn't work because English is ranked higher by other teams.

    The drop-off from Sintim to Jasper Brinkley, as SILBs, isn't that great - I have the same questions about both when it comes to instinct for playing the run inside. Sintim grades higher because he can already backstop outside, but he's still a project.

    Woods, Crable, Redd, and Craig all seem to be good OLB prospects. Crable has a slightly faster 40 and ten yard split over Barwin, but Barwin is more agile, and has proven to be stronger on Special Teams at the college level and is still a TE option.

    Guyton and Mayo are promising inside, Ruud has had a full year to bulk up and get ready to contribute inside, I also think Craig can slide inside...and maybe Woods will follow the Bruschi trail inside someday. Is Sintim the answer here?

    Barwin and Sintim will both contribute in other ways, they are my #1 OLB and #1 ILB prospects...I still draft the higher ceiling at #23, Barwin before Sintim.

    And Nut still has us chasing an undersized 4-3 OLB who grades out no higher than the late second as a 3-4 LB. **sigh** He was the same way about Patrick Willis - he likes the flashy, shiney things.
  28. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    I've seen Sintim and Matthews proposed at #23, whom else do people rank as players with better upside than Barwin, either as immediate contributors or with higher ceilings?
  29. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2005
    Messages:
    15,133
    Likes Received:
    27
    Ratings:
    +30 / 0 / -0

    #75 Jersey

    Yes I do. I was not hot about Rivers last year. I'm not hot about Cushing this year. But I do like Matthews and he has risen.

    Now let's say that they go with Mattews at 23 and Barwin is on hteir list and they now think he's going ot be taken from 28-32. they have the ammo to go after him at 27.

    I would be happy with a day one draft that looks like this.

    Matthews
    Barwin
    S.Smith
    OT, CB from Ore, or another OLB

    BTW the more I read about A. Smith the less I like of him.
  30. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    An argument against teaching "nuts" to read. :ugh:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page