If Connor Barwin was drafted at 23......

[dryheat44]

"Need immediately" is an awfully strong statement with Adalius Thomas, Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable & Vince Redd on the roster. IMO the #23 pick isn't about plugging immediate holes (of which there are precious few). It's about adding a long-term impact player.

What, exactly, do we know about Shawn Crable & Vince Redd? One hasn't played a down yet, and the other one just garbage time. I don't see their presence as necessarily mitigating a need. We have two OLBs with any kind of experience, and the book's still out on one. (Actually, I suppose we could throw TBC in here too, although I expect he'll be almost strictly a STer). I think OLB is certainly a spot where there is an immediate need, even if it's a #3 guy.

Secondly, is it unreasonable to expect that these players mentioned above, 2 of which are recent undrafteds, can't be improved on? And if so, isn't it probable, or at least somewhat likely, that a #1 pick in 2009 should be expected to be a better player than a UDFA in 2008, year in the system be damned?

I'm curious to get your thoughts. I strongly believe any value pick at #23 is somebody who is going to contribute on offense or defense in Year 1. They take up too much cap room and have too short a contract span to be redshirted.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'm curious to get your thoughts. I strongly believe any value pick at #23 in somebody who is going to contribute on offense of defense in Year 1. They take up too much cap room and have too short a contract span to be redshirted.

Meriweather, it took a Rodney season ending injury to move him in as a starter. With that and the history of the entire NE 1st round draft class of the Belichick era, I'm looking for the long term motives to explain draft priorities in round one.

I can see drafting a Beatty, and I can see him at #3 OT waiting for Light or Kaczur to be injured or unsigned after the season.

I can see drafting a Delmas and grooming him behind Sanders the same way Meriweather was groomed.

I can see drafting a Nicks to be the #3 WR and heir apparent to Randy.

I can even see an argument to draft a Mack or Unger to develop behind Neal.

So why not a Barwin to develop behind Thomas? And yes, I consider him an upgrade over the 2008 3rd round kid and his undrafted brethren.

 

[JSn]

Beatty would appear to have the higher value as a LT. Do we need to replace Light? So far Dante and BB say no and I haven't seen any sign to suggest Light has slipped from seasons past. I think Light's replacement is on the roster at RT - sucks to be the haters!

LOL - I'm down with that, but surely someone is coming after you with a hook.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

LOL - I'm down with that, but surely someone is coming after you with a hook.

They'd have to get it through the butterfly net and straitjacket to do any damage.

 

[mayoclinic]

PFW had Matthews listed as a "good fit" for the Patriots defense.

Now lets take a sample of the draft ratings as of today.

NFLDraftscouts has Matthews ranked #20 and Barwin ranked #41
Scout.com Matthews #24 Barwin #63
GBN Matthews #21 #42

And God on HIgh, Mel Kiper had Matthews ranked as 26 on his to 32 and Barwin was not on the list.

So getting back to the original premise of the thread, why would we pick a guy ranked mid- to late second with #23?

It's a little hard to find archived draft boards from previous drafts, but let's take one example, nfldraftcountdown.com.

In 2001 nfldraftcountdown had Richard Seymour ranked #16 on its final big board, and we took him at #6, to the derision and consternation of many. In 2003 Ty Warren was ranked #42, and the Pats traded up to get him at #13 (passing up William Joseph, ranked #14). In 2005 Logan Mankins was ranked #80 on nfldraftcountdown's final big board, and we took him at #32. In 2006 Lawrence Maroney was ranked #29 (well below DeAngelo Williams at #12, who the Pats passed up). And in 2008 Jerod Mayo was ranked #24, well below Keith Rivers at #11. With the possible exception of Maroney, all extremely solid (perhaps even spectacular) picks.

I think if you could pull up past draft boards from the sources you listed you would see similar trends. The Pats don't care where a prospect is ranked on various draft boards. They will do their own analysis.

None of us can guarantee that we are "right" about a prospect, but years of watching the team closely to understand its structure, needs and trends has given some experienced people (I don't include myself in this group) fairly good insight into how the Pats might pick. None of us is nearly as smart as BB, but I would take the insights of several members of this forum over the average "professional" draftnik, many of whom just follow concensus draft boards and ignore team-specific needs and issues.

Only time will tell if you are right about Matthews vs. Barwin. You may be, though I personally don't think so, and I do like Matthews. I am, however, fairly sure that where they rank on various public draft boards won't be a factor in the Pats' analysis.

 

[Clonamery]

It's a little hard to find archived draft boards from previous drafts, but let's take one example, nfldraftcountdown.com.

In 2001 nfldraftcountdown had Richard Seymour ranked #16 on its final big board, and we took him at #6, to the derision and consternation of many. In 2003 Ty Warren was ranked #42, and the Pats traded up to get him at #13 (passing up William Joseph, ranked #14). In 2005 Logan Mankins was ranked #80 on nfldraftcountdown's final big board, and we took him at #32. In 2006 Lawrence Maroney was ranked #29 (well below DeAngelo Williams at #12, who the Pats passed up). And in 2008 Jerod Mayo was ranked #24, well below Keith Rivers at #11. With the possible exception of Maroney, all extremely solid (perhaps even spectacular) picks.

I think if you could pull up past draft boards from the sources you listed you would see similar trends. The Pats don't care where a prospect is ranked on various draft boards. They will do their own analysis.

None of us can guarantee that we are "right" about a prospect, but years of watching the team closely to understand its structure, needs and trends has given some experienced people (I don't include myself in this group) fairly good insight into how the Pats might pick. None of us is nearly as smart as BB, but I would take the insights of several members of this forum over the average "professional" draftnik, many of whom just follow concensus draft boards and ignore team-specific needs and issues.

Only time will tell if you are right about Matthews vs. Barwin. You may be, though I personally don't think so, and I do like Matthews. I am, however, fairly sure that where they rank on various public draft boards won't be a factor in the Pats' analysis.

Good reminders...

 

[bakes781]

Obviously the Pats should have their own draft board based on what fits their scheme best, but I've always wondered if they give any consideration to what other teams are thinking and how that translates into whom should be available especially in the later rounds. I would like to think that they taken into account what the majority view is on certain players and use that to decipher where players project.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Obviously the Pats should have their own draft board based on what fits their scheme best, but I've always wondered if they give any consideration to what other teams are thinking and how that translates into whom should be available especially in the later rounds. I would like to think that they taken into account what the majority view is on certain players and use that to decipher where players project.

I strongly suspect their strategies try to account for other team's needs and targeted prospects.

 

[dryheat44]

Meriweather, it took a Rodney season ending injury to move him in as a starter. With that and the history of the entire NE 1st round draft class of the Belichick era, I'm looking for the long term motives to explain draft priorities in round one.

I can see drafting a Beatty, and I can see him at #3 OT waiting for Light or Kaczur to be injured or unsigned after the season.

I can see drafting a Delmas and grooming him behind Sanders the same way Meriweather was groomed.

I can see drafting a Nicks to be the #3 WR and heir apparent to Randy.

I can even see an argument to draft a Mack or Unger to develop behind Neal.

So why not a Barwin to develop behind Thomas? And yes, I consider him an upgrade over the 2008 3rd round kid and his undrafted brethren.

I can see these things too....but I don't consider them value picks. Personally, I think we'll be taking a CB or OT, but I think that either way we're going to be taking a guy with an early 2nd round grade at #23.

I agree with you re: OLB. I was surprised when Chickie wrote that it was not an immediate need. I'm not comfortable right now relying on TBC, Crable, or Redd to get major snaps in the rotation.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I can see these things too....but I don't consider them value picks. Personally, I think we'll be taking a CB or OT, but I think that either way we're going to be taking a guy with an early 2nd round grade at #23.

I agree with you re: OLB. I was surprised when Chickie wrote that it was not an immediate need. I'm not comfortable right now relying on TBC, Crable, or Redd to get major snaps in the rotation.

Well which CB(s) and OT(s) might NE be targeting to achive that "value" with #23? How are they upgrades over Light/Kaczur or one of the current CBs?

 

[dryheat44]

Well which CB(s) and OT(s) might NE be targeting to achive that "value" with #23? How are they upgrades over Light/Kaczur or one of the current CBs?

There's not. Remember...I didn't say "start", I said "contribute"..but I would expect them to start in year 2. That's why in previous years my first round pick was at a position where the incumbent was on the last year of his deal. The uncapped year complicates that this year.

But I could see Beatty upgrading OT, and moving Kaczur down to swing tackle or guard, or being freed up to be traded.

I can see Alphonso Smith or Darius Butler starting Game 1...or at least I did before the Springs signing.

I can see Chung or Delmas starting over Sanders if Meriweather, Adalius, or Mayo feel comfortable in making the calls and setting up the defense.

I can see Robiskie starting Day 1 at WR opposite Moss.

I can see Sintim starting Day 1 over Woods, or at least heavy in the rotation.

When I did my last mock (which is what I linked to earlier), I tried to describe my thought process. Keeping in mind it was before Springs signed, my considerations at #23 were Beatty, Butler, and Sintim.

 

[bakes781]

I like Darius Butler. I think his stock has risen enough warranting a #23 pick. Jenkins will probably not fall far enough and Vontae's physical freakness similarity to his brother Vernon scares me. When you factor in that Sean Smith may be too big for CB and Alphonso may be too small, Darius is the one true CB who seems to fit just right.

 

[cstjohn17]

There's not. Remember...I didn't say "start", I said "contribute"..but I would expect them to start in year 2. That's why in previous years my first round pick was at a position where the incumbent was on the last year of his deal. The uncapped year complicates that this year.

But I could see Beatty upgrading OT, and moving Kaczur down to swing tackle or guard, or being freed up to be traded.

I can see Alphonso Smith or Darius Butler starting Game 1...or at least I did before the Springs signing.

I can see Chung or Delmas starting over Sanders if Meriweather, Adalius, or Mayo feel comfortable in making the calls and setting up the defense.

I can see Robiskie starting Day 1 at WR opposite Moss.

I can see Sintim starting Day 1 over Woods, or at least heavy in the rotation.

When I did my last mock (which is what I linked to earlier), I tried to describe my thought process. Keeping in mind it was before Springs signed, my considerations at #23 were Beatty, Butler, and Sintim.

That would be quite the contribution from a draft class..

 

[patchick]

I'm curious to get your thoughts. I strongly believe any value pick at #23 is somebody who is going to contribute on offense or defense in Year 1. They take up too much cap room and have too short a contract span to be redshirted.

Well, I was responding to a post that said that the need at OLB was so immediate that readiness should be prioritized over potential...

While I'll agree that Barwin's ceiling is higher, in the 1st round I'm valuing a higher floor more. I'm not as willing to take a risk with the 1st round and we need a guy who can contribute immediately.

...so it's not that I don't expect anything from a #1 draft pick as a rookie, it's about whether the situation is desperate enough to make plugging holes the primary objective. As I said, personally I'd be willing to accept a little more year-1 learning curve in return for a better chance of a genuine disruptive impact presence on defense in the years to come.

There's also the argument that shipping out Vrabel represented something of a vote of confidence in one or more of the young OLBs on the roster.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

There's not. Remember...I didn't say "start", I said "contribute"..but I would expect them to start in year 2. That's why in previous years my first round pick was at a position where the incumbent was on the last year of his deal. The uncapped year complicates that this year.

But I could see Beatty upgrading OT, and moving Kaczur down to swing tackle or guard, or being freed up to be traded.

I can see Alphonso Smith or Darius Butler starting Game 1...or at least I did before the Springs signing.

I can see Chung or Delmas starting over Sanders if Meriweather, Adalius, or Mayo feel comfortable in making the calls and setting up the defense.

I can see Robiskie starting Day 1 at WR opposite Moss.

I can see Sintim starting Day 1 over Woods, or at least heavy in the rotation.

When I did my last mock (which is what I linked to earlier), I tried to describe my thought process. Keeping in mind it was before Springs signed, my considerations at #23 were Beatty, Butler, and Sintim.

Good, I can see drafting Delmas at #23, he seems to have the talent. I'm not sure I see him beating Sanders out in year two, though he'd be like Meriweather, good to have on the back burner. I don't see Chung at #23, he should be there later, especially after Moore's Pro-day resurrection.

Alphonso will need to run much better and cut much better at his Pro-Day to try and move back into the late first, I still see him in round two. Butler impressed, he cemented himself there in the late first/early second. Off his game tape I'd call him a second (I already had Barwin crowding the late first before the Combine based on tape), I also can see later round CBs worthy of adding to the mix who don't seem to be a huge drop-off from Butler. I wouldn't be upset if he was #23, but I'm not seeing him ahead of Barwin long term. Get the edge rush, ride with the lesser CBs.

I've addressed Beatty above.

Robiske mid-2nd, Nicks, you'd have an argument I might buy.

Sintim would be okay, but again, he's moving inside in my world and backing up outside while he learns, Barwin has the higher ceiling so I shoot for the sky.

 

[bakes781]

There's also the argument that shipping out Vrabel represented something of a vote of confidence in one or more of the young OLBs on the roster.

You could be right. I think it's funny that a year ago at this time we were all saying the Pats never take a LB on day one and now it would seem to be almost a certainty that we take one if not 2.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Because we're not paid to be ignorant about NE - we're the fans who live and breath this team and spend most of our time trying to understand the mystery of Bill Belichick.

What makes any of them experts on the 3-4? On NE's 3-4? Those same sites also had Logan Mankins as a 3rd round pick - at best (Kiper's hair still hasn't recovered from that episode). Do your own analysis and tell me what does Matthews bring to the table that Barwin doesn't, right now it's the USC brand name and his Daddy/Grandaddy, we may as well draft Prince Charles for President.

Well my friend, how has figuring our the mystery of BB worked out for any of us when it comes to the draft? Each year we post the people that the Patriots will draft. Each year most of us get shut out or there is a blind squirrel poster who may get one right.

Don't get me going on politics.

It's because I do my own analysis that I'm able to pick winners like Patrick Willis. And last year in mid April, I dumped Ghoston and Rivers and settled on Mayo.

And in 2000, I had a QB from Mich circled in my draft guide with the notation "P-round 5." I happened to be an entire round ahead of BB in drafting the greatest QB of all time.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You could be right. I think it's funny that a year ago at this time we were all saying the Pats never take a LB on day one and now it would seem to be almost a certainty that we take one if not 2.

Part of that is the draft class, another part of that is the spread offense in college is forcing some of the better athletes to learn to play up more often and to react to coverage assignments and not just pin their ears back on each down.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Well my friend, how has figuring our the mystery of BB worked out for any of us when it comes to the draft? Each year we post the people that the Patriots will draft. Each year most of us get shut out or there is a blind squirrel poster who may get one right.

Don't get me going on politics.

It's because I do my own analysis that I'm able to pick winners like Patrick Willis. And last year in mid April, I dumped Ghoston and Rivers and settled on Mayo.

And in 2000, I had a QB from Mich circled in my draft guide with the notation "P-round 5." I happened to be an entire round ahead of BB in drafting the greatest QB of all time.

Heh, BB has more and better data than we do, operating from very limted data this forum gets much closer to BB's reality than those drafty gurus.

You Mainiacs.

Willis is a winner in a different system, he has yet to sell me on his fit for NE's 3-4 - all the knocks Ochmed has for Mayo's rookie season, they still apply to Willis as a sophomore...oh, you hang out on the dark side, just who called Mayo while you were slavering over Gholston and Rivers? :snob:

Tommy thanks you for your support...but did you hit on Cassel and O'Connell?

 

[dryheat44]

Sintim would be okay, but again, he's moving inside in my world and backing up outside while he learns, Barwin has the higher ceiling so I shoot for the sky.

Just to be clear, I'm talking about starting spots that could be taken by rookies. I wouldn't spend #23 on Delmas or Chung....and I wouldn't spend it on a WR unless there was nobody else to take and trading down proved futile. And I would take probably Nicks or Heyward Bey over Robiskie just for their ceilings, but I think Robiskie would be the most likely of the trio to open the year at the X.