Idle thoughts - The Houston Match up. (Texan fans welcome)

[longhornsk57]

I think it will be a different Texans team show up than last time, and I think we have a decent chance. I don't think Schaub will target Mccourtey again or FORCE it to Andre almost every throw. We have Graham back and during the Bengals game Schaub played HIS game of throwing to TEs and handing to Foster and playing a slow but sure attack instead of trying to air it out every play like he did against the Pats.

All of that being said, if I was laying down green cash, I'd be laying it on the Pats to cover because at the end of the day "being there before" and winning 3 superbowl rings while getting to 5 total does mean something here and may make the difference. Also the return of Gronk in an already potent offense and a defense that doesn't have crazy D numbers but gets off the field in critical times spells out a behemoth that may just be too hard to overcome. Losing to a team like the Patriots would be disappointing, but not as much as losing to the Bengals would have been. They were an inferior team and it showed more than the 19-13 score would have indicated.

I'm hoping for an excited game till the end, and whatever happens will happen, hopefully with a Texans shocking win to go on to rematch the Broncs.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

i will say this...if the pats lose and denver wins vs ravens...SB for broncos like that

 

[leehanu]

Who are Texans getting back this time around that didn't play in Dec? Pats get Gronk, Cunningham and Jones(Dec game was first game back).

 

[Double TE]

I am curious how the Texans prepare for the Pats offense. Rarely this year have they seen the double tight end package. From which the Pats can just as easily run from or pass from. While in the first meeting we had Gronk we did not have Hernandez. Playing at home is a big advantage for the hurry up/no huddle. Plus this year we are not as one dimensional with Ridley and Vereen having the ability to break big runs as well as attain tough yards.

 

[naF staP]

TFB pick the Texans apart and the running game will see all 4 running backs causing headaches for the Texans.

 

[Rob0729]

How everyone is so certain we'll beat a team of comparable talent is beyond me.

Do I think the likelihood that we execute well enough to win is high? Yes. But this dismissive attitude towards the Texans is surprising. They've been one of the best teams in the league for two years. They have one of the best core group of young players in the league.

All it takes to win or lose any game against a good opponent is a play or two here and there. If Patriot fans have not learned that by now, both in our favor and then much to our dismay, I'm not sure what they've been watching the past decade.

A few things:

• The Pats could lose. Any team who makes it to the playoffs have the opportunity to beat anyone else. Look at the 9-7 Jets in 2009 who backed into the playoffs or the 9-7 Seattle team that made it to the Super Bowl.
• Have you watched the Texans play recently? The last week of the season they had HFA and a first round bye on the line playing against a team that had nothing to play for with no defense and an one dimensional offense and lost 28-16. They lost 23-6 to Minnesota the week before. They barely beat Cincy yesterday and if Dalton didn't overthrow Green in the end zone, they would have. They are not comparable to the Patriots.
• It isn't just Patriots homerism. Nationally, everyone is picking the Pats. Doesn't mean much in the grande scheme of things, but it seems pretty clear that a majority of the country do not think the two teams are comparable.
• Matt Schaub has thrown one TD pass in the last 23 quarters. That is nearly six games with one TD pass. The Texans will need to score points against the Pats and the Texans have turned into a horrible red zone offense.

I don't think it is going to be a blowout like last time, but the Pats are definitely better than the Texans right now and will most likely have to beat themselves to lose to the Texans.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

How everyone is so certain we'll beat a team of comparable talent is beyond me.

Do I think the likelihood that we execute well enough to win is high? Yes. But this dismissive attitude towards the Texans is surprising. They've been one of the best teams in the league for two years. They have one of the best core group of young players in the league.

All it takes to win or lose any game against a good opponent is a play or two here and there. If Patriot fans have not learned that by now, both in our favor and then much to our dismay, I'm not sure what they've been watching the past decade.

Save the lecture. I think it's possible to say that one is confident that a team will come through and win a particular game against a "good opponent" without being "dismissive" of that opponent.

This is a classic case of being able to hold two potentially competing ideas in one's head at the same time; in this case, "The Texans will be a very tough opponent" and "I am confident that the Pats will beat them in this game." See my post right above the one from you to which I am responding.

 

[Kontradiction]

Everyone keeps bringing up the 2010 Divisonal game against the Jets. I don't think it's that game that the Pats need to learn from. I think it's the game against the Steelers last year. Pittsburgh came in and bottled up our offense by doing something that was completely out of the ordinary, something that we didn't expect them to do, and something that they never really did nor have done since. They went away from their zone scheme and played press man across the board which confused Brady and resulted in quite a few coverage sacks. They should be ready for anything because, with a result like that a month ago, we're pretty much guaranteed that Phillips is going to change things up in order to disrupt the offense.

Strangely, I'm not worried about the defense in this game.

 

[JackBauer]

Strangely, I'm not worried about the defense in this game.

Betcha didn't think you'd be uttering those words at all this season.

 

[Rob0729]

Everyone keeps bringing up the 2010 Divisonal game against the Jets. I don't think it's that game that the Pats need to learn from. I think it's the game against the Steelers last year. Pittsburgh came in and bottled up our offense by doing something that was completely out of the ordinary, something that we didn't expect them to do, and something that they never really did nor have done since. They went away from their zone scheme and played press man across the board which confused Brady and resulted in quite a few coverage sacks. They should be ready for anything because, with a result like that a month ago, we're pretty much guaranteed that Phillips is going to change things up in order to disrupt the offense.

Strangely, I'm not worried about the defense in this game.

Is Phillips a guy who will change things up like that? The Texans seem pretty inflexible and are not a gameplan specific team. Granted neither are the Steelers.

I'm not so sure you will see anything radically different out of the Texans. I expect to see them change some things up, but I think they will run their typical offense and defense.

 

[IllegalContact]

Is Phillips a guy who will change things up like that? The Texans seem pretty inflexible and are not a gameplan specific team. Granted neither are the Steelers.

I'm not so sure you will see anything radically different out of the Texans. I expect to see them change some things up, but I think they will run their typical offense and defense.

there's not much to change up with.......cushing has been most of the year, and now dobbins and sharpton are out, too.....all the have left who can play in the middle is brady james, and he's not going to cover either gronk or hernandez. they are very exposed in the short passing game.

 

[ivanvamp]

That's a myth that has been repeated over and over for some reason.

That was a 42-7 game before the garbage time TD.

"Executed better"???????? The only thing they could have possibly executed better was to bribe the bus driver to take them to New Jersey instead that night.

Exactly. But then again, think about that. This is a 13-win team that has beaten Denver, Baltimore, Chicago, Indy, and Cincy. That's five pretty good wins right there. They are well-balanced in terms of offense/defense:

Offense: #8 points, #7 yards
Defense: #9 points, #7 yards

They are also balanced offensively:

Passing: #11
Rushing: #8

Foster has the ability to have a big day, and Schaub has plenty of targets. We have seen lesser quarterbacks have good games against the Patriots recently, including in the playoffs (for example, see Mark Sanchez, 2010).

I could see Watt and company giving the Patriots all kinds of problems. They have a very active defense and are plenty skilled.

Look, the Patriots are a better team. They crushed them head-to-head. They have the home field advantage. Vegas has them at more than a 9-point favorite for a reason. And it could be that the Patriots pound them again. But Houston has the ability not only to keep this close, but to win the game outright.

My early prediction is: NE 31, Hou 27. It's a tight first half, then the Pats get 10 points in the two possessions surrounding halftime. They open it up in the late 3rd to early 4th, going up 31-17. But then Houston gets a FG to make it 31-20, Houston gets a stop, and then race down the field for a TD with just a few minutes left on the clock. We're all dying here wondering if the Pats can run out the clock. They get a first down but cannot close it out, and are forced to punt, giving the ball to Houston with less than a minute left, and about 80 yards to go. They complete a few passes, but can't get past the Pats' 40 and we have to endure a hail mary play that falls harmlessly to the ground.

And we all breathe a huge sigh of relief, and some folks here talk after the game of all the yards gained and points scored by Houston in "garbage time", when we all will know otherwise.

But in the end, it'll be on to Denver for the Patriots, and I will not care how we get there. Just survive and advance.

 

[Kontradiction]

Betcha didn't think you'd be uttering those words at all this season.

That's why I noted how strange it was.

Is Phillips a guy who will change things up like that? The Texans seem pretty inflexible and are not a gameplan specific team. Granted neither are the Steelers.

I'm not so sure you will see anything radically different out of the Texans. I expect to see them change some things up, but I think they will run their typical offense and defense.

Phillips might not be gameplan specific, but I hope the Pats don't rely on that. LeBeau never usually was gameplan specific against the Pats, either. He suddenly sprung a trap and it resulted in a win. I would hope Brady and Belichick are expecting to see a lot more zone coverage in this one instead of the press man that Brady ate alive in the first meeting.

 

[TexasTradition]

Who are Texans getting back this time around that didn't play in Dec? Pats get Gronk, Cunningham and Jones(Dec game was first game back).

Two key players, 4 overall. TE Garret Graham, OLB Brooks Reed.... And to a lesser extent RT Nate Newton, and CB Alan Ball.

Graham is key because we were unable to run our two and three TE sets effectively last time, a major portion of our offense. Reed is key because he is a workhorse, and is much more effective than Merciless at setting the edge, maintaining discipline, covering the flats, and rushing the QB.

Anytime you get your starting RT back, it cant hurt despite that bein a weak spot on our team, and getting Ball back strengthens our secondary depth. While not as talented as 2nd year Harris... He is much more disciplined and does not commit the penalties Harris has been while filling in for him.

However, Gronk pretty much offsets these additions by himself. If we had Cushing, I would feel alot more confident. I cannot stress the massive hole he has left in the middle of our defense. He is THAT important to this team.

Anyway, we ALL are Ravens fans this week!

 

[IllegalContact]

Two key players, 4 overall. TE Garret Graham, OLB Brooks Reed.... And to a lesser extent RT Nate Newton, and CB Alan Ball.

Graham is key because we were unable to run our two and three TE sets effectively last time, a major portion of our offense. Reed is key because he is a workhorse, and is much more effective than Merciless at setting the edge, maintaining discipline, covering the flats, and rushing the QB.

Anytime you get your starting RT back, it cant hurt despite that bein a weak spot on our team, and getting Ball back strengthens our secondary depth. While not as talented as 2nd year Harris... He is much more disciplined and does not commit the penalties Harris has been while filling in for him.

However, Gronk pretty much offsets these additions by himself. If we had Cushing, I would feel alot more confident. I cannot stress the massive hole he has left in the middle of our defense. He is THAT important to this team.

Anyway, we ALL are Ravens fans this week!

you are forgetting that the texans also had sharpton and dobbins for the previous game. in all, the texans are no better than they were in the first meeting, and if anything, are weaker on defense. at least they had mercilus behind reed......they have nobody behind dobbins and sharpton

 

[Double TE]

I cannot believe I am rooting for Lewis and the Ravens. But yes, I would like home field for NE if we are fortunate to win on Sunday. Again, I think our biggest advantage lies in the fact that we can run double TE formations and other teams have not had a chance to scout them as rarely have AH and RG been on the field at the same time this yr.

 

[BradyManny]

A few things:

• Have you watched the Texans play recently? The last week of the season they had HFA and a first round bye on the line playing against a team that had nothing to play for with no defense and an one dimensional offense and lost 28-16. They lost 23-6 to Minnesota the week before. They barely beat Cincy yesterday and if Dalton didn't overthrow Green in the end zone, they would have. They are not comparable to the Patriots.

I've seen them play against the Colts and the Bengals - and yes, it's hard to come away impressed with their play, overall. However, their last 5 games have been against playoff teams now. Naturally, they are going to look worse. And their failures in the past month are no guarantees that they fail this Sunday. The talent is there, and all that matters is if that group of talent executes on Sunday or not.

I thought their defense looked quite good on Saturday, granted, Dalton sucks, but they seemed to be much more competitive than when we played them a month or so ago. I also think their DBs were physical and got away with a lot of contact. We've seen that as a factor in some of our rare losses in the last several years. If that continues, that could be an issue, too.

I'm not suggestion the Patriots will lose. I believe the Patriots are the better team and most likely will win on Sunday. But this notion that it will be a repeat of the beatdown we handed them, or that the Texans are some scrub team - I'm not buying it. This isn't Tim Tebow from last year. This will be a test. They have a physical team and a tough D.

 

[BradyManny]

Phillips might not be gameplan specific, but I hope the Pats don't rely on that. LeBeau never usually was gameplan specific against the Pats, either. He suddenly sprung a trap and it resulted in a win. I would hope Brady and Belichick are expecting to see a lot more zone coverage in this one instead of the press man that Brady ate alive in the first meeting.

That man coverage was successful for four straight drives before the Pats beat it with a burner who isn't on the roster right now. Had those four drives come at the start of the game, it's a different ball game.

Zone against Brady is suicide if you can't get home with 4, and the way the Pats played Watt, I'm not sure Houston can.

I expect Houston to play largely the way it did before and hope for better execution. The unfortunate thing for them is that Gronk is back, and he beats any coverage you want to throw at him.

What should scare the rest of the NFL is if Gronk is 100%. This is a guy who was just a tick below Tom Brady in importance to our squad last year. He is one of the best players in the NFL, period. I think people nationally are quick to forget that.

The other interesting thing about Phillips is that he is one of the few teams to actually play us in their base D (according to Reiss, they only went nickel when we went 3WR). Our 2TE normally draws a nickel group, and granted, Gronk was out, so it may be different this week. Phillips is an arrogant, stubborn SOB, he's the same guy who said he was more afraid of our run game than Brady before we ripped them up in Dallas in '07. Even though Brady has torn his D apart the last two times, I don't expect him to change his approach. The problem is for Houston, we can throw all over a base D, and we can still run on most base Ds.

This game will most likely come down to whether we can block JJ Watt as effectively as last time.

 

[Rob0729]

That man coverage was successful for four straight drives before the Pats beat it with a burner who isn't on the roster right now. Had those four drives come at the start of the game, it's a different ball game.

Zone against Brady is suicide if you can't get home with 4, and the way the Pats played Watt, I'm not sure Houston can.

I expect Houston to play largely the way it did before and hope for better execution. The unfortunate thing for them is that Gronk is back, and he beats any coverage you want to throw at him.

What should scare the rest of the NFL is if Gronk is 100%. This is a guy who was just a tick below Tom Brady in importance to our squad last year. He is one of the best players in the NFL, period. I think people nationally are quick to forget that.

The other interesting thing about Phillips is that he is one of the few teams to actually play us in their base D (according to Reiss, they only went nickel when we went 3WR). Our 2TE normally draws a nickel group, and granted, Gronk was out, so it may be different this week. Phillips is an arrogant, stubborn SOB, he's the same guy who said he was more afraid of our run game than Brady before we ripped them up in Dallas in '07. Even though Brady has torn his D apart the last two times, I don't expect him to change his approach. The problem is for Houston, we can throw all over a base D, and we can still run on most base Ds.

This game will most likely come down to whether we can block JJ Watt as effectively as last time.

In at least three of those four straight drives, the Pats tried for a deep pass on third downs (connecting once). I don't know how much of it was the Texans or the Pats stalling the drives themselves. I remember at least one of those two passes to Hernandez having Hernandez wide open and him dropping the ball. I could be wrong.

 

[JMC00]

I really think people are over looking the fact that the texans in games they absolutely needed to win have produced 4 offensive TD in their last 5 games, while settling for 14 FG (out of 16 ATT)

Pats put up 4 TD in a 15 minute span against the 49ers.