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They need to go 2-1 the next 3 weeks and then go on a run down the homestretch, which has always been their MO in the past. If so i think we are looking at 11-5 and they will just have to go on the road and show they can win elsewhere in the play-offs. I don't think this is going to be a top seed team and imo even a bye is going to be a longshot this year, instead they will have to do it the hard way and go on a roll in the play-offs, but if they can still be a top 5 defense without Mayo then that is a real possibility.
I'm not thinking much about the record or a bye right now. It's too early. I think the bye has been overrated, and that the formula for success in the NFL favors the mentally tough teams that have to fight their way in to the tournament over those that coast. I do agree that I'd like to see 2-1 or better over the next 3 games, putting the team at either 6-3 or 7-2 with 7 games to play (4 on the road).
The homestretch:
@Indy (Sunday night)
Detroit
@Green Bay
@San Diego (Sunday night)
Miami
@Jets
Buffalo
After this week's Thursday night game against the Jets, the Pats will have just 2 games in a 30 day period (between October 16 and November 16).
All I really care about between now and November 16 is (1) 2+ wins, (2) continued mental toughness, and (3) no more major injuries.