Idle thoughts - TC - the early days

[patfanken]

If this pans out, it would go a long way to alleviating my safety concerns this season. I like Chung and I think Gregory will fit in nicely here, so the starters are comfortable for me. My worry has always been depth at safety, since Chung is likely to miss a few games here or there this season.

Given that Tavon Wilson hasn't looked "out of place" according to most training camp reports, I'm getting more comfortable with him in the rotation, at least as the #4 safety and occasional corner. If Allen can step up and be another veteran presence over the top, I think that would make a HUGE difference in coverage this year. Having reliable safeties covering deep will only make our young CB's better and more confident.

There are going to be some VERY hard choices that are going to have to be made at the end of this preseason and this area will be one of them

Originally I thought that the final 4 safeties would be Chung, Gregory, Wilson and Barrett, to go along with 5 CBs. I really thought that Barrett was necessary because he'd be the only true Strong safety on the roster. And while a strong safety type has become less of a necessity in today's passing game, he DOES have a role in sub packages where he is replacing a LB against the running game.

So if Allen shows well, it could be very difficult to release him, but if you have 10 DB's that leaves only 15 spots for your DL and LB's / You can see the problem. Are you willing to let a Dane Fletcher go, just at the point when he's really ready to contribute just because you don't have room for another ILBs ?etc, etc

 

[Metaphors]

It is hard to draw definitive conclusions based on camp practices. I think that is why you sometimes see radically different assessments from different eyes. The part that is missed sometimes is that the offense and defense are being tested against each other. Brady looking pinpoint sharp could be a great sign for the offense or a troublesome sign for the defense...or anywhere along the spectrum in between. It isn't until other teams are on the field that you can begin to project how effective players will be when it counts.

Another thing to consider is that these practices are limited and highly structured. Case in point from the Jets camp (where the Tebow posse at ESPN are doing 24x7 coverage)...the San-grenade goes 1-for-7 in a practice session with Revis on the sidelines and the media goes nuts. The next day, he only throws quick passes at <10 yds and has a solid completion percentage, which also gets widely reported. Coincidence? Hardly. Rex knows his QB's psyche is fragile and wants to make sure he survives the preseason with some semblance of confidence. You could make similar observations about Goober at the Broncos camp (where the other half of Bristol is parked).

The goals in camp are not always obvious. A great camp report could be the result of the soft bigotry of low expectations. A camp disaster could just be players abilities being stretched to see where they fit. And one observation can start to reinforce itself as people see what they expect to see (Vereen being slow, Bolden looking fast and nimble, Gregory struggling in coverage). Doesn't mean the observations are invalid. I just can't trust them until we see them in game situations.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

There are some observations you can trust from camp without seeing game situations. I'll list a few that I personally observed over the years. It was obvious that Deion Branch was a player in camp from the get go. Everything he did was quick and fluid. TFB's 2001 camp was outstanding. Not just I but many others on the sidelines could see that he ran the offense (often times the #1 offense) better than Bledsoe who was just OK. As a counterpoint, Chad Jackson looked awesome standing still, physique and all but on the field he was clueless. Lined up wrong, ran the wrong routes and basically pissed Brady off, not that TFB is known for patience with miscues by anyone.

Absolutely as you say pre-season games do give us a better metric but remember how bad 2008 Cassell looked running the offensive plays BB wanted him to run, facing situational tests that we the viewer were oblivious to?

As long as the observer remembers the proper context and non-obvious goals as you mentioned, they can draw some valid conclusions from camp and pre-season observations.

 

[patfanken]

That's true about different observers having different opinions on the same play. I read a couple of sites that give daily updates on every practice. Mike Reiss and his gang at ESPN, the PFW in progress group at the Pats official site, and at NE Patriots Draft wh.o offer 15 points after each practice, to name a few. It was interesting to note that while ESPN was praising Brace's work, the NE Patriots draft guys were panning him.....on the same day.

So it probably is a good idea to take all these characterizations with a grain of salt. One man's feast is another man's garbage.....and only chef Bellichick knows how it really tastes