Idle thoughts...Setting the record straight

[tanked_as_usual]

'06 did, and we probably would have won the SB that year if not for half of the defense catching the flu and the most atrocious PI call that I've ever seen. '07, not so much IMO. The injuries to Seymour and Colvin really killed the front 7, but the offense was so good that it made the opponents one-dimensional.

the pats wopuld have won the SB in 2006 if they managed to keep branch around for 1 more year

but I believe that the pats defensive scheme began unraveling with the departure of willie mcginest......manning didn't have nightmares about the pats defense....he had nightmares about mcginest.....with seymour out in the playoffs in 2004, the colts were so preoccupied with mcginest, it allowed jarvis green to look like reggie white

I believe mcginest was slowing down anyway, so things would have changed regardles of whether he was around or not.......

the problem with the pats as with any organization is that the core group of veterans that get kept after a regime change was already in tune with what the staff wanted to do........they made it easy......they also would make it very hard down the road to find replacements

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

its funny......its the only one I really have........the offensive decisions really don't matter that much.......whether bodden is signed or not doesn't matter that much........and while wilfork returning is a good thing especially from a leadership thing, he won't make as much of a difference as the LB's do....

year in, year out.....it was the LB's that made the game-changing plays.....go all the way back to 2001....the law INT for a TD was set up by vrabel being in warner's face......and until they got old, they made it look to manning like there were 2 extra players out there.....and it went far beyond their physical abilities.....vrabel, bruschi, mcginest, phifer were tied to each other.....they were so in sync, that they always knew what things they could ignore in each call making their jobs so easy.....the current group is so far away from that, they have no chance in forcing the QB away from his secondary targets.......its the 3-4.....there's no way around having crappy LB's...none at all...the defense may seem solid at times against really simple offenses and could be decent against the run, but it simply does nto have the ability to make big plays

Excellent post about how important the LB's were.

 

[Coach42]

its funny......its the only one I really have........the offensive decisions really don't matter that much.......whether bodden is signed or not doesn't matter that much........and while wilfork returning is a good thing especially from a leadership thing, he won't make as much of a difference as the LB's do....

year in, year out.....it was the LB's that made the game-changing plays.....go all the way back to 2001....the law INT for a TD was set up by vrabel being in warner's face......and until they got old, they made it look to manning like there were 2 extra players out there.....and it went far beyond their physical abilities.....vrabel, bruschi, mcginest, phifer were tied to each other.....they were so in sync, that they always knew what things they could ignore in each call making their jobs so easy.....the current group is so far away from that, they have no chance in forcing the QB away from his secondary targets.......its the 3-4.....there's no way around having crappy LB's...none at all...the defense may seem solid at times against really simple offenses and could be decent against the run, but it simply does nto have the ability to make big plays

Wait wait wait.....Wilfork won't make a difference for the LB's? Are you kidding? A crappy NT will RUIN ILB's in a 3-4, how can you say that hasn't mattered? If anything the D lines ability to tie up offensive linemen is the reason LB's are allowed to make plays.

 

[Coach42]

the pats wopuld have won the SB in 2006 if they managed to keep branch around for 1 more year

but I believe that the pats defensive scheme began unraveling with the departure of willie mcginest......manning didn't have nightmares about the pats defense....he had nightmares about mcginest.....with seymour out in the playoffs in 2004, the colts were so preoccupied with mcginest, it allowed jarvis green to look like reggie white

I thought WR's don't make a difference?

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Wait wait wait.....Wilfork won't make a difference for the LB's? Are you kidding? A crappy NT will RUIN ILB's in a 3-4, how can you say that hasn't mattered? If anything the D lines ability to tie up offensive linemen is the reason LB's are allowed to make plays.

How have their LB's done lately? Crappy LB's will make an "elite NT" look crappy.

 

[Coach42]

How have their LB's done lately? Crappy LB's will make an "elite NT" look crappy.

I think the ILB's have been fine. I don't really see them as a major problem at all.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

Wait wait wait.....Wilfork won't make a difference for the LB's? Are you kidding? A crappy NT will RUIN ILB's in a 3-4, how can you say that hasn't mattered? If anything the D lines ability to tie up offensive linemen is the reason LB's are allowed to make plays.

we won 3 superbowls with 3 different NT's......the jets defense didn't really miss kris jenkins after he got hurt......the chargers defense did fine by finding Ian Scott in a bar somwhere after he was out of the game for over a year

wilfork DOES matter.........but regardless, this defense will only go as far as the LB's takes it

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I thought WR's don't make a difference?

a wafer thin difference was the pats/colts AFCC in 2006.......1 or 2 first downs would have sealed the win for the pats, but WR's were so bad, that the offense could not keep the ball long enough

again....none of them make as much of a difference to this team as the LB's

its what this whole BB philosophy had been predicted on from the beginning

 

[Coach42]

we won 3 superbowls with 3 different NT's......the jets defense didn't really miss kris jenkins after he got hurt......the chargers defense did fine by finding Ian Scott in a bar somwhere after he was out of the game for over a year

wilfork DOES matter.........but regardless, this defense will only go as far as the LB's takes it

That's fine I agree with that, but it just seemed you glossed over Wilfork like it didn't matter. While we did win 3 superbowls with 3 different NT you might want to remember the 02 season when we didn't have a NT and with the group of LB's you are highlighting, got run all over.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I think the ILB's have been fine. I don't really see them as a major problem at all.

who was the last LB to make an int for the pats?

why do our current LB's have about 1/3 or even less of the passes defensed that the old ones did?

compared to past ILB's, these guys can't cover to save their lives

LB INT's/FF:
2009 - 0/6
2008 - 1/3
2007 - 5/10
2006 - 5/5
2005 - 2/6
2004 - 7/7
2003 - 7/13

 

[tanked_as_usual]

That's fine I agree with that, but it just seemed you glossed over Wilfork like it didn't matter. While we did win 3 superbowls with 3 different NT you might want to remember the 02 season when we didn't have a NT and with the group of LB's you are highlighting, got run all over.

he matters......just not much as the LB's.......the NT clogs the middle......the LB's make the plays........

 

[Coach42]

Look for the most part I totally agree with you on the LB issue. The thing the LB's that are required for our D don't just grow on trees, in fact they are quite rare. They have tried through FA (Thomas, Colvin) and the draft (Mayo) to replace the older vets but its not an overnight fix and its not an exact science especially at OLB. If anything Belicheck caught lightening in a bottle when he came here acquired Vrabel and had Bruschi and McGinest already in place. That was a legitimate windfall for him.

 

[Coach42]

who was the last LB to make an int for the pats?

why do our current LB's have about 1/3 or even less of the passes defensed that the old ones did?

compared to past ILB's, these guys can't cover to save their lives

That's not entirely true. In 04 the ILB's had 3 ints and 9 passes defended in 09 the ILB's had 0 ints and 6 passes defended. Obviously the picks would be nice but all 3 came from Tedy and that was a career year for him. You can't tell me that Mayo isn't the most talented ILB we have had, he played hurt last year and wasn't able to make the plays I think he will in the future. So yes, I don't see ILB as a major hole.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

That's not entirely true. In 04 the ILB's had 3 ints and 9 passes defended in 09 the ILB's had 0 ints and 6 passes defended. Obviously the picks would be nice but all 3 came from Tedy and that was a career year for him. You can't tell me that Mayo isn't the most talented ILB we have had, he played hurt last year and wasn't able to make the plays I think he will in the future. So yes, I don't see ILB as a major hole.

ILB's have not made an INT in 2 years....how many teams can make that claim? these guys aren't making plays....they're solid in certain regards, but opposing QB's don't have to think twice about going across the middle

and while mayo may be the most ATHLETIC, he doesn't make near the plays that bruschi and phifer used to....not even close

 

[Coach42]

Just did a little more digging in 03 Bruschi 19 PD 3 INTs 2 TDs. Very very impressive however they were also done under different rules. I wonder how he would have faired under the current rules minus the stroke? It would be interesting to see.

 

[Jangles]

FACT - our defense last season WAS NOT horrible. In fact it was very decent. It ranked FIFTH in scoring (the most important defensive stat) and 11th over all.

Such an overblown statistic

Our D was picked apart by any QB that was average or better and padded its stats against teams that probably couldn't have gotten the ball in the endzone if the defense wasn't even on the field.

 

[Coach42]

ILB's have not made an INT in 2 years....how many teams can make that claim? these guys aren't making plays....they're solid in certain regards, but opposing QB's don't have to think twice about going across the middle

and while mayo may be the most ATHLETIC, he doesn't make near the plays that bruschi and phifer used to....not even close

Oh come on, Brushchi had an incomparable knack for making monster plays but Phifer? He was good but not as good as Mayo, come on.

 

[patfanken]

Such an overblown statistic

Our D was picked apart by any QB that was average or better and padded its stats against teams that probably couldn't have gotten the ball in the endzone if the defense wasn't even on the field.

Well in reality that is the ONLY stat that counts, because points are what determines who win or loses the games. You want to go back to "the good old days" Days like in 2001 when the Pats were the 27th ranked defense, yet managed to be in the top 10 in scoring D...

Or in 2003 when they improved to be the 24th ranked D, yet were in the top 5 in scoring D (IIRC).

ONLY the 2004 team had a defense that was ranked in the top 10 in both categories.

The real difference in those teams compared with our more recent editions, is that THOSE teams created more TO's and big plays. Those teams ALSO played under different rules.

 

[patfanken]

ILB's have not made an INT in 2 years....how many teams can make that claim? these guys aren't making plays....they're solid in certain regards, but opposing QB's don't have to think twice about going across the middle

and while mayo may be the most ATHLETIC, he doesn't make near the plays that bruschi and phifer used to....not even close

So lets hypothesize that you are correct about the lack of big plays being made by the LBs of today. I would also contend that the LBs of the Championship years were NOT playing under the same conditions and rules that the LBs of today must contend with.

We are also playing in an era when it is rare for either ILBs to be on the field all 3 downs. Where the 6th DB has more of an impact than the 2nd ILB. A game where even the OLBs don't get as much run anymore. Didn't AJs notes on TBC show that he got 100+ fewer pass rushes than Freeney or Peppers. Now maybe he was in coverage, or more likely he was off the field because a DB replaced him in coverage

Maybe I haven't been stressing it enough, but the game HAS changed that radically in the aftermath of the Pats 2004 Championship. By 2006 even Reche Caldwell became a respectable #1 WR. OF course it helped having TB as your QB, but by that year the offenses were really starting to take over, and by this past season, having a 4000 yd passing season is no big deal, and multi-300 yd games are common place for most average of NFL QBs, and if you aren't completing BETTER than 60% of your passes, your GM is looking for your replacement.

So I agree with your contention that the Pats need to turn the ball over more with big plays. I agree because those were the teams that were the most successful. The Saints D was pitiful (or at least as pitiful as ours), but they managed to create many TO's all year long. I don't remember their D actually stopping the Colts on offense. I remember a few times where the Colts stopped themselves, with penalties, drops, etc. OTOH, the only time the Colts stopped the Saints after the first drive was when the Saints stopped themselves.

Where was the defense in THAT game between the 2 best teams in the league????????
IMHO, it was in Bill Pollian's pocket where he put it when he realized that his team would never reach the promised land until he could legislate tough D out of the league.....and to his credit....he did it. Now is the time to start the pendulum moving back....but I don't expect to see it anytime soom.

 

[bigfandan]

Good read, Ken you have made some nice arguments.

The OL could use significant upgrade. The way our QBs (mainly TB) got beat up last two years was not acceptable. It will be nice to have receivers and TEs that can get separation quickly so TB does not have to stand there getting hammered.

The other need obvously is LB corp, as you pointed out.

I think I finally snapped with the "what the heck is going on thread". We are over 5 months away from the start of the season and "some" people are having kiniption fits over PERCEPTION...not reality.

FACT - our defense last season WAS NOT horrible. In fact it was very decent. It ranked FIFTH in scoring (the most important defensive stat) and 11th over all.

The perception that the defense is horrible comes from the fact due to all the Polian rules changes...pretty much ALL defenses have been rendered "horrible". We just have to look at the 30+ points second half the Colts threw up on the #1 defense in the league in the AFCCG.

So when we see our team give up a 3rd and long first down and decry its futility, we have to understand that THIS IS NOW THE NORM in the pass happy NFL. And despite our perception, our defense last season was pretty good.....RELATIVE to the rest of the sorry defenses in league.

MYTH - The Jets signing Antonio Cromartie makes their secondary the best in the league, with TWO shut down CBs.

FACT - has anyone bothered to check out Cromartie's performance the last TWO season, or are you still watching UTube highlights from 2007. Last season these were his sorry stats. 30 tackles, O sacks, 3 picks, O fumble recoveries, O forced fumbles, and this is the stunner. ... NINE whole passes defended, or roughly THREE times fewer than what Lee Boddin put up for our sorry assed Defense His results for the season before where hardly better.

Given the nature of the league right now WHY would any team literally give up a quality CB, especially to the team that knocked it out of the playoffs. The fact is that they wouldn't....and they didn't. So stop worrying about Antonio Cromartie and his 9 passes defended. I don't doubt that the Jets will present a formidable defensive challenge this season, but it won't be because
Antonio Cromartie is playing opposite a REAL shut down CB in Derelle Revis.

Myth - the Signing of Karlos Dansby drastically improves the Miami defense.

FACT- HOW??? I ask. Granted Dansby is a fine LB, who adds speed to the ILB corp of the Fins, but his has NEVER been an impact player. He has NEVER had more than 5 sacks a season. He makes a lot of tackles, but who is going to replace the big play potential of Porter and Taylor. NOT Karlos Dansby

MYTH- According to the media, this team has more holes in its roster than ever before.

FACT- REALLY?????? Lets check it out, even before the draft where we have 4 picks in the first 53 in the deepest draft in recent memory.

OL - This is very good OL - Talented and DEEP... they brought the entire band back. I challenge anyone to find a hole, with Koppen who is decent, the only guy you are likely to want to upgrade...down the road

QB- All set there

RB - Well here you might get into an arguement, but with Maroney Taylor, Morris, and Faulk (assumption) The Pats may be old at the position, but they have enough TALENT there to have a good running attack....especially in an offense that isn't geared to run first.

TE- Much has been made of the fact that we don't have ANY TE's on the roster, but who cares in March. We don't use them in the passing game anyway. Besides, we are about to sign a blocking TE who caught over 30 balls, and Alge Crumpler's name has been thrown around along with Olsen of Chicago. I'm confident that by camp the Pats will have 3 TEs under contract that will satisfy the masses and more importantly, the coaching staff.

WR - Now this is really where there are holes in the roster. However it is also the position that is the EASIEST to fill. There are simply MORE people on the planet who have WR skills than say QB or DL. We made it to the AFCCG with Jabar, Reche, and a fading Troy Brown. I think we will be fine with Moss, Welker, Edelman, and whomever else we sign/draft to fill in. BTW- Brandon Tate was supposed to be a first round talent before he got hurt. How come no one in the media mentions him when talking about WRs.

So at this position I agree it is something to watch over the next coming months, but its NOT something to go nuts over

DL - Jarvis Green and his 3 sacks over the last 2 years is gone. I'm thrilled he got another pay day. He deserved it. However he had already been surpassed by Mike White, and the promising Myron Pryor is coming back, along with the "unpromising" Ron Brace, who will hopefully benefit from a full off season in the strength progam. However this is an area where I wouldn't be surprised if one of the "big 4 draft picks" is used for a DLman.

ILB - Surpisingly, I think we are pretty much set here with Mayo, Guyton, and McKenzie, along with the other usual suspects, FAs, and draft picks. ILB isn't a 3 down position anymore, so its not like we need much more than what we have.

OLB - The other position of concern - Here's what I don't understand. We act like we are the ONLY team in the league that needs to improve our pass rush. Do people know that we actually had MORE sacks than the Jets last season. EVERY team needs to improve their pass rush. Its the nature of the game now.

Also I'd suggest as required reading, Andy Johnson's post on TBC and his production. Tully doesn't have the "name", yet per this post, his production and efficiency ranked with the best in the league. It also was enlightening is pointing out how effective teams are in pass blocking since even the BEST guys in the league were averaging only ONE effective pass rush (sack, pressure, hit or blk) every 10 throws. Kind of makes you wonder about the competitive fairness of the current game.

So while I do expect the Pats to resign Burgess, I also expect them to address the pass rush issue in the first 2 rounds as well. There seems to be a very good crop of "Tweeners" his year. If we don't know all their names today, we certainly will over the next 6 weeks.

DBs - With the resigning of Boddin our DBs are settling in as becoming a strength of the defense. we are set at S with Merriweather, Chung, McGowan, and Sanders. We are getting better at CB with Wheatly coming back, and Butler and Wilhite with another year of experience. I also expect to see a DB among those picked in the top 4. I'm hoping we resign Springs, because we need another "big" CB for GL situations. Maybe that's the thought for the draft.

So in conclusion. Are we a finished team yet, OF COURSE NOT. However the sturm and drang wringing of the hands BS I've seen on this board is ridiculous, almost to be the point of being embarrassing.

I'm not being a homer when I contend that this is solid team, with a core that is capable of winning it all, just like about a dozen other teams in the league. Luck, injuries, good or bad calls, and the vagaries of dealing with an oblong spheroid will determine exactly WHO lifts the Lombardi in February, but as fans, all we can ask is that we be in the mix...and believe me Pats fans....we ARE in the mix...as of March 10th....as we will be come January