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It will be a long wait for tonight's game. Here are some random thoughts that I hope will help you get through the day. So in no particular order, let us begin.
1.I read PFT daily. I know Florio is a hater and Steeler toady, but it fills my need for a quick fix of NFL news. I especially like his daily “one liners”, which gives links to a single story for every team in the league. But I also know that pretty much every day I will find a piece that will piss me off, and usually its written by Florio himself.
Recently he tried to make a big deal of Josh McDaniels' statement that he won't take the Browns job. He ran with the rumor that it was because McDaniels found out he wasn't the front runner and backed out before he could be rejected. Even when reports surfaced that this wasn't true, he continued to report it as fact and when it comes up now, and throws in a dig about how it will hurt McDaniels' chances to be a HC in the future.
Then there was his piece on naming Ron Rivera PFT's coach of the year. I won't comment on Rivera, who had a great year after a bad start. But after the piece he offered a poll of 8 other HC's he thought were worthy. Stunningly Bill Bellick wasn't one of them. Over 100 people commented and about half were surprised he left BB off the list. But that's Florio. He's from Morgantown WV, and that's Steeler country, and Florio is as much a Steeler toady as I am a Pats one. He still hasn't forgiven the Pats for all the times they knocked them out of the playoffs AT Heinz. When I called him out on his omission, and wondered sarcastically why he left Tomlin off the list, he promptly deleted my comment. It wasn't the first time.
Understand I really admire Florio. I've been following his “rumor mill” since I stumbled across it over 10 years ago. I really admire what he's done with it. He wasn't any different than most of us, a rabid football fan who just happened to know a few agents he had met in his career as a lawyer. They occasionally gave him some tips. He took that info and turned it into what was nothing more than a fan blog and ran with it. After a few years he started getting some sponsors and a made a few bucks off it. Eventually NBC bought it and the rest is history. He gets millions of hits daily. He uses around 8 different reporters for content, has a daily TV gig, and he's become a regular “mediot expert” on TV. In other words he did what most of us wished we had done....and never did. That's to be admired.
On the other hand, he's a undeniable Pats hater and Steeler apologist. Who never misses a chance to throw a dig against the Pats. So on those grounds is easy to hate. And if that's not enough to hate him, did I mention he was a lawyer?
2.Looking at the Colts game:
a. OFFENSE - The question is where is it going to come from. Common wisdom is that we will power run the crap out of them. Their LB's are small but fast, our OL is great at power blocking. So, given our recent success with the run game, it only makes sense that we just run the ball down their throats. That's the good news.
The bad news is that ANY running attack can be neutralized on the NFL level. Take for example in 2006 the Colts ranked 32nd in rushing defense during the regular season, dead last. Yet in the playoffs gave up only 82 ypg over 4 games one the way to Peyton's only Lombardi. That was 90 yards less per game than they gave up in the regular season. In fact the Colts who ranked 20th in total D that year, ranked FIRST during their superbowl run. BTW- it still rankles me that Peyton gets so much credit for that win, when in fact, with the exception of the AFCCG, it was the defense who literally carried a sub par Peyton Manning to his lone trophy.
That should be sobering news to those who are counting on the Pats simply running the ball to victory. I believe it won't be as easy as we think. These are NFL caliber players, and competent coaches who know that we are going to be limited in the passing game. We don't have a Dwayne Bowe to stretch the field, We DON'T have a TE to threaten the seams, and if we are going to be effective running the ball, it will be against 8 and 9 man fronts. That's not going to be easy since BOTH Bethea and Landry are excellent in the run game.
Edelman, Amendola, and Vareen will be our 3 biggest passing threats. All are good receivers, but NONE of them are physical types who can outmuscle big DB's like Vonte Davis at the LOS. I see the Colts playing 4-5 men underneath in press coverage, with a 2-3 deep in zone. That would effectively make our quick throws to our wide outs and screen passing game ineffective. It will also put a lot bodies close to the LOS vs the run. It would certainly not be the only coverage we see, but some version of it should be the one we see most.
Look for Amendola and Edelman to be doubled every play in some way. They will take Thomkins out of the game by manning him with Vonte Davis, and using the double teams on Julian and DA to make it hard for Brady to get rid of the ball quickly. They will want to force him to go to his 3rd and 4th options. If you remember this is similar to the basic strategy the Jets used in 2010 to great effect in the Pats 2nd worst loss of this century.
In that game the Jets often covered with 8. Doubled Gronk and Welker and had Revis simply take Branch completely out of the game. IIRC Hernandez had a decent game, but not enough to overcome the other coverage. Now without a single TE threat, (let alone 2) this strategy might work even better.
Well the good news is that since I'm aware of this, so is Josh and Bill. So I'll be interested to see how they attack it. Of course the play action passing game (PAP) will be critical. Also I see us running wide because, if the Colts play a lot of man, DB's will be run off the LOS for 5 yds at least, before they realize its a run, thus there should be a lot of soft corners to run around.
Other things to look for offensively
a. KC had a lot of success throwing short to their RB's. I think its imperative that we involve the RB's and TE's with outs and delays underneath. We need to take those short gains, because making the TE's something to be concerned with, will open up a lot for the rest of the receivers. Brady can't be stubborn and ignore easy completions to guys open short, in order to hit the big play. Not havng Dobson or Gronk should make Brady a lot less stubborn tomorrow night.
b. If the Pats have problems running the ball early, I wouldn't be surprised to see us try and spread those guys out a bit. Bunch formations and 3 wide formations not only will create more open space for the receivers, but thin out the defenders vs the run.
c. I'm hoping that short crossing pattern over the middle, where the WR breaks it to the seam/post when the S jumps it, will be used more. We really need to threaten the deep ball and have some success if we hope to keep the Colts from effectively strangling the offense by squeezing the attack area, very similar to what we did to Manning in the comeback.
d. On the plus side, I really think we can be effective in protecting Brady and neutralize Robert Mathis A lot of his success has come in the dome where he has a huge advantage because of the turf and home crowd. He loses that here and the rain won't help either. Besides the Pats have been very successful over the years in protecting Brady against some of the best outside rushers in the league. No doubt Mathis will have his moments of hits, hurries, and maybe even a sack, but I don't see them happening enough, so if Brady wants to stretch the field with some deeper patterns, I'm confident he'll have the time most of the time.
e. This is cliché, but in the end 2 factors will decide this game. Red Zone effectiveness, and ball security. For the offense, they need to score TD's, not FG's and NOT turn the ball over. Once will be OK, twice unacceptable. Thank you, I will accept the "keen sense of the obvious" award now.
1.I read PFT daily. I know Florio is a hater and Steeler toady, but it fills my need for a quick fix of NFL news. I especially like his daily “one liners”, which gives links to a single story for every team in the league. But I also know that pretty much every day I will find a piece that will piss me off, and usually its written by Florio himself.
Recently he tried to make a big deal of Josh McDaniels' statement that he won't take the Browns job. He ran with the rumor that it was because McDaniels found out he wasn't the front runner and backed out before he could be rejected. Even when reports surfaced that this wasn't true, he continued to report it as fact and when it comes up now, and throws in a dig about how it will hurt McDaniels' chances to be a HC in the future.
Then there was his piece on naming Ron Rivera PFT's coach of the year. I won't comment on Rivera, who had a great year after a bad start. But after the piece he offered a poll of 8 other HC's he thought were worthy. Stunningly Bill Bellick wasn't one of them. Over 100 people commented and about half were surprised he left BB off the list. But that's Florio. He's from Morgantown WV, and that's Steeler country, and Florio is as much a Steeler toady as I am a Pats one. He still hasn't forgiven the Pats for all the times they knocked them out of the playoffs AT Heinz. When I called him out on his omission, and wondered sarcastically why he left Tomlin off the list, he promptly deleted my comment. It wasn't the first time.
Understand I really admire Florio. I've been following his “rumor mill” since I stumbled across it over 10 years ago. I really admire what he's done with it. He wasn't any different than most of us, a rabid football fan who just happened to know a few agents he had met in his career as a lawyer. They occasionally gave him some tips. He took that info and turned it into what was nothing more than a fan blog and ran with it. After a few years he started getting some sponsors and a made a few bucks off it. Eventually NBC bought it and the rest is history. He gets millions of hits daily. He uses around 8 different reporters for content, has a daily TV gig, and he's become a regular “mediot expert” on TV. In other words he did what most of us wished we had done....and never did. That's to be admired.
On the other hand, he's a undeniable Pats hater and Steeler apologist. Who never misses a chance to throw a dig against the Pats. So on those grounds is easy to hate. And if that's not enough to hate him, did I mention he was a lawyer?
2.Looking at the Colts game:
a. OFFENSE - The question is where is it going to come from. Common wisdom is that we will power run the crap out of them. Their LB's are small but fast, our OL is great at power blocking. So, given our recent success with the run game, it only makes sense that we just run the ball down their throats. That's the good news.
The bad news is that ANY running attack can be neutralized on the NFL level. Take for example in 2006 the Colts ranked 32nd in rushing defense during the regular season, dead last. Yet in the playoffs gave up only 82 ypg over 4 games one the way to Peyton's only Lombardi. That was 90 yards less per game than they gave up in the regular season. In fact the Colts who ranked 20th in total D that year, ranked FIRST during their superbowl run. BTW- it still rankles me that Peyton gets so much credit for that win, when in fact, with the exception of the AFCCG, it was the defense who literally carried a sub par Peyton Manning to his lone trophy.
That should be sobering news to those who are counting on the Pats simply running the ball to victory. I believe it won't be as easy as we think. These are NFL caliber players, and competent coaches who know that we are going to be limited in the passing game. We don't have a Dwayne Bowe to stretch the field, We DON'T have a TE to threaten the seams, and if we are going to be effective running the ball, it will be against 8 and 9 man fronts. That's not going to be easy since BOTH Bethea and Landry are excellent in the run game.
Edelman, Amendola, and Vareen will be our 3 biggest passing threats. All are good receivers, but NONE of them are physical types who can outmuscle big DB's like Vonte Davis at the LOS. I see the Colts playing 4-5 men underneath in press coverage, with a 2-3 deep in zone. That would effectively make our quick throws to our wide outs and screen passing game ineffective. It will also put a lot bodies close to the LOS vs the run. It would certainly not be the only coverage we see, but some version of it should be the one we see most.
Look for Amendola and Edelman to be doubled every play in some way. They will take Thomkins out of the game by manning him with Vonte Davis, and using the double teams on Julian and DA to make it hard for Brady to get rid of the ball quickly. They will want to force him to go to his 3rd and 4th options. If you remember this is similar to the basic strategy the Jets used in 2010 to great effect in the Pats 2nd worst loss of this century.
In that game the Jets often covered with 8. Doubled Gronk and Welker and had Revis simply take Branch completely out of the game. IIRC Hernandez had a decent game, but not enough to overcome the other coverage. Now without a single TE threat, (let alone 2) this strategy might work even better.
Well the good news is that since I'm aware of this, so is Josh and Bill. So I'll be interested to see how they attack it. Of course the play action passing game (PAP) will be critical. Also I see us running wide because, if the Colts play a lot of man, DB's will be run off the LOS for 5 yds at least, before they realize its a run, thus there should be a lot of soft corners to run around.
Other things to look for offensively
a. KC had a lot of success throwing short to their RB's. I think its imperative that we involve the RB's and TE's with outs and delays underneath. We need to take those short gains, because making the TE's something to be concerned with, will open up a lot for the rest of the receivers. Brady can't be stubborn and ignore easy completions to guys open short, in order to hit the big play. Not havng Dobson or Gronk should make Brady a lot less stubborn tomorrow night.
b. If the Pats have problems running the ball early, I wouldn't be surprised to see us try and spread those guys out a bit. Bunch formations and 3 wide formations not only will create more open space for the receivers, but thin out the defenders vs the run.
c. I'm hoping that short crossing pattern over the middle, where the WR breaks it to the seam/post when the S jumps it, will be used more. We really need to threaten the deep ball and have some success if we hope to keep the Colts from effectively strangling the offense by squeezing the attack area, very similar to what we did to Manning in the comeback.
d. On the plus side, I really think we can be effective in protecting Brady and neutralize Robert Mathis A lot of his success has come in the dome where he has a huge advantage because of the turf and home crowd. He loses that here and the rain won't help either. Besides the Pats have been very successful over the years in protecting Brady against some of the best outside rushers in the league. No doubt Mathis will have his moments of hits, hurries, and maybe even a sack, but I don't see them happening enough, so if Brady wants to stretch the field with some deeper patterns, I'm confident he'll have the time most of the time.
e. This is cliché, but in the end 2 factors will decide this game. Red Zone effectiveness, and ball security. For the offense, they need to score TD's, not FG's and NOT turn the ball over. Once will be OK, twice unacceptable. Thank you, I will accept the "keen sense of the obvious" award now.
