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Just a collection of varied thoughts concerning the NFL and the Pats off season
I. Here is a thought I have been wanting to talk about for a while. I can’t help noticing a significant change in how the NFL passing game is changing.
If you watch the Pats you can’t help notice that Brady is looking for the receiver who get the most “separation” on the pattern. He is always throwing to the “open man” OTOH, more and more I watch teams like the Ravens and Seahawks be very successful, not throwing the “open man” but the tallest one.
They have concluded that between the chances of THEIR guy coming down with the ball, PLUS the chances of getting a PI call, throwing to a well- covered receiver is now worth the risk, as long as the ball is thrown deep enough.
I see this strategy starting to spread around the NFL And while I do see the Pats occasionally participating in this on occasion, I don’t think they give up their passing philosophy entirely. The Pats aren’t afraid to go against the whatever the current craze is in the NFL. They might see this an opportunity to have a greater opportunity to grab those small quick receivers that are likely to be passed over for the latest 6’5 guy.
The Pats prove that there is a place in the league for the Edelman's Welkers, and Amendolas, but to use them well you have to have a very skilled QB with great decision making skills. OTOH to run the "chick and duck" requires a less skilled guy.
However, the need for more length at the DB positon is STILL going to be a huge priority going forward. The number of big WR’s seems to keep growing in every draft, while the number of DB’s over 6’2 is still extremely rare.
II, .I don’t think that people realize how difficult what Brady and the Pats did in the superbowl really was. The chances of being able to throw the ball THAT often and complete so many passes really isn’t that great. 4 LONG drives for TD, plus another that ended in the pick is outstanding.
So many things can go wrong. Maybe the QB is inaccurate, or the receiver drops the ball, the QB misreads the D, the receiver misreads the D, any one of 11 guys get a penalty, any one of 11 guys screw up their assignment, and any one of 11 guys simply get beat by their opponent. On those last 2 drives the Pats lined up 15 time and avoided ALL the above mentioned pitfalls, and scored the 2 game winning TD’s
III. As the chances of us losing Shane Vareen seem to grow by the day, the thoughts of who replaces him grow as well. Here are 3 options, one of which is out of the box.
a. Chris Johnson – IIRC Johnson has decent hands, great explosiveness and speed, and is a much better runner that Vareen. Granted I have no idea what kind of a pass blocker he is, or how smart. If those 2 questions were answered, I think he’d be a good alternative who would likely cost $2MM/yr or less
b. Josh Boyce - Yeah, you heard me correctly. I was thinking that the way we use Vareen he’s much more a receiver than runner, probably 80-20%. So why not Boyce. They are both about the same size and strength. Boyce was known for his YAC in college, so we know he’s got some RB skills.
Right now Boyce is buried down the Pats WR depth chart, so why not a minor position change, especially since 80% of the time he’s be doing exactly what he’s been doing his whole career. Besides you can’t beat the price. Let he and White fight it out. I find it hard to believe he’d be a worse runner.
c. And then there is CJ Spiller. For some reason I have always liked this kid. He’s an explosive runner. He catches the ball well. And he can be used on special teams. If you are going to pay for a 3rd down RB, I’d rather it be Spiller than Vareen.
IV. After studying the info that Miguel has been dispensing, I am confident that the Pats will be able to resign Revis, McCourty, one RB, and get Solder’s cap number down with a long term deal. I also believe that by the time TC comes around, the Pats will also get some cap relief from reworked deals with Mayo, Connolly, and Amendola. Plus cap space from Wilfolk’s new deal or release. Then when all is said and done, the key elements will be back with the team along with enough cap space that signing a guy like Ayers or another mid-level guy would be possible as well.
V. I am firmly on board with the following draft strategy.
VII. Interesting to see how BB’s proposal to be able to challenge any play is getting traction this off season. I’m constantly surprised that the major objection is that it would make the games longer.
That’s so wrong. HC’s would still only have 2-3 challenges, and they have to get the first 2 right in order to even get a 3rd challenge. Game lengths won change a bit. If it helped getting this rule passed, I’d be OK with doing away with the option of a 3rd challenge altogether
OK that’s long enough. I guess I can get some of my other thoughts in during the discussion.
I. Here is a thought I have been wanting to talk about for a while. I can’t help noticing a significant change in how the NFL passing game is changing.
If you watch the Pats you can’t help notice that Brady is looking for the receiver who get the most “separation” on the pattern. He is always throwing to the “open man” OTOH, more and more I watch teams like the Ravens and Seahawks be very successful, not throwing the “open man” but the tallest one.
They have concluded that between the chances of THEIR guy coming down with the ball, PLUS the chances of getting a PI call, throwing to a well- covered receiver is now worth the risk, as long as the ball is thrown deep enough.
I see this strategy starting to spread around the NFL And while I do see the Pats occasionally participating in this on occasion, I don’t think they give up their passing philosophy entirely. The Pats aren’t afraid to go against the whatever the current craze is in the NFL. They might see this an opportunity to have a greater opportunity to grab those small quick receivers that are likely to be passed over for the latest 6’5 guy.
The Pats prove that there is a place in the league for the Edelman's Welkers, and Amendolas, but to use them well you have to have a very skilled QB with great decision making skills. OTOH to run the "chick and duck" requires a less skilled guy.
However, the need for more length at the DB positon is STILL going to be a huge priority going forward. The number of big WR’s seems to keep growing in every draft, while the number of DB’s over 6’2 is still extremely rare.
II, .I don’t think that people realize how difficult what Brady and the Pats did in the superbowl really was. The chances of being able to throw the ball THAT often and complete so many passes really isn’t that great. 4 LONG drives for TD, plus another that ended in the pick is outstanding.
So many things can go wrong. Maybe the QB is inaccurate, or the receiver drops the ball, the QB misreads the D, the receiver misreads the D, any one of 11 guys get a penalty, any one of 11 guys screw up their assignment, and any one of 11 guys simply get beat by their opponent. On those last 2 drives the Pats lined up 15 time and avoided ALL the above mentioned pitfalls, and scored the 2 game winning TD’s
III. As the chances of us losing Shane Vareen seem to grow by the day, the thoughts of who replaces him grow as well. Here are 3 options, one of which is out of the box.
a. Chris Johnson – IIRC Johnson has decent hands, great explosiveness and speed, and is a much better runner that Vareen. Granted I have no idea what kind of a pass blocker he is, or how smart. If those 2 questions were answered, I think he’d be a good alternative who would likely cost $2MM/yr or less
b. Josh Boyce - Yeah, you heard me correctly. I was thinking that the way we use Vareen he’s much more a receiver than runner, probably 80-20%. So why not Boyce. They are both about the same size and strength. Boyce was known for his YAC in college, so we know he’s got some RB skills.
Right now Boyce is buried down the Pats WR depth chart, so why not a minor position change, especially since 80% of the time he’s be doing exactly what he’s been doing his whole career. Besides you can’t beat the price. Let he and White fight it out. I find it hard to believe he’d be a worse runner.
c. And then there is CJ Spiller. For some reason I have always liked this kid. He’s an explosive runner. He catches the ball well. And he can be used on special teams. If you are going to pay for a 3rd down RB, I’d rather it be Spiller than Vareen.
IV. After studying the info that Miguel has been dispensing, I am confident that the Pats will be able to resign Revis, McCourty, one RB, and get Solder’s cap number down with a long term deal. I also believe that by the time TC comes around, the Pats will also get some cap relief from reworked deals with Mayo, Connolly, and Amendola. Plus cap space from Wilfolk’s new deal or release. Then when all is said and done, the key elements will be back with the team along with enough cap space that signing a guy like Ayers or another mid-level guy would be possible as well.
V. I am firmly on board with the following draft strategy.
- DL first, and I weigh heavily on an interior DL player. It HAS to be our top priority. Unfortunately outside of QB’s, IMPACT DT’s are by far the hardest commodity to find. Granted you can find “decent” guys all over the place as our “success” with Siliga, White, and Villano has shown. However if you want an “impact” guy you either have to have a top 15 draft pick of be willing to take some risk.
- OL – Of course I’d be OK with taking a offensive lineman in the first, if I was sure he’d be an opening day starter and a significant upgrade over our current OG’s But the chances of finding THAT player after #32 is a lot greater than finding that “impact” DT.
- Edge rusher – Supposedly this is one of the deeper areas of the draft this year and I have heard there will be some good options out there right into the 3rd round.. Now keep this in mind, I have great hopes that one or both of Moore and Buchannon can develop into that #3 DE/OLB that we’ve been looking for, for over 2 years. Still it doesn’t hurt to add to the competition.
- TE- I know most would put RB up there, but sorry guys, but RB’s can be found anywhere. They are even more abundant that WR’s and a lot less expensive. TE’s on the other hand, are much rarer. Understand I am talking about find a TRUE TE, not one of those “Flex Ends” OTG is always talking about. I think we have that covered in Wright
- After that flurry of picks at the end of the 3rd and top of the 4th (3 picks in about 7 slots) I’m hoping we will have hit all the boxes checked,, so, after that, we can use the rest of our picks moving up in other rounds, out to the next year, or on very high risk/reward injury or character guys regardless of position.
VII. Interesting to see how BB’s proposal to be able to challenge any play is getting traction this off season. I’m constantly surprised that the major objection is that it would make the games longer.
That’s so wrong. HC’s would still only have 2-3 challenges, and they have to get the first 2 right in order to even get a 3rd challenge. Game lengths won change a bit. If it helped getting this rule passed, I’d be OK with doing away with the option of a 3rd challenge altogether
OK that’s long enough. I guess I can get some of my other thoughts in during the discussion.
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