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I've read like 20 people say it stops mattering in a 3 way tie but that makes no sense to me and unless I'm reading the rules wrong head to head absolutely matters. I've bolded the important sections.
NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures
In short, I don't know quite why anyone would have us ahead of the Ravens yet. If the Ravens beat the Broncos they'll have beaten both the Patriots and Broncos meaning that they bested both of those teams so in a theoretical 3 way tie at 12-4 where the Broncos lose to the Ravens and the Patriots lose one more along with Baltimore dropping one more the Ravens would get the #2 seed.
Where Head to Head stops mattering is if there are 3 or more teams and no one team has beaten all of the other division winners they are tied with. Then it would moved to conference record and the Patriots have only 1 conference loss (Baltimore) so they are in good shape for that record as things stand.
Someone clue me in if I'm off base or reading this wrong but I still think it's pretty clear and it's what makes the most sense. Why should a team who is in a 3 way tie with two other teams it has beaten lose a tiebreaker to either of them? The whole point of seeding is that the 'better' teams get the higher seeding and the closest method we have to determining who is better is head to head competition, obviously.
NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures
OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.
To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tie-breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team's position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is "3." If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is "4." Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of "1" in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be "3."
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
In short, I don't know quite why anyone would have us ahead of the Ravens yet. If the Ravens beat the Broncos they'll have beaten both the Patriots and Broncos meaning that they bested both of those teams so in a theoretical 3 way tie at 12-4 where the Broncos lose to the Ravens and the Patriots lose one more along with Baltimore dropping one more the Ravens would get the #2 seed.
Where Head to Head stops mattering is if there are 3 or more teams and no one team has beaten all of the other division winners they are tied with. Then it would moved to conference record and the Patriots have only 1 conference loss (Baltimore) so they are in good shape for that record as things stand.
Someone clue me in if I'm off base or reading this wrong but I still think it's pretty clear and it's what makes the most sense. Why should a team who is in a 3 way tie with two other teams it has beaten lose a tiebreaker to either of them? The whole point of seeding is that the 'better' teams get the higher seeding and the closest method we have to determining who is better is head to head competition, obviously.