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Your base 19 is very generous. I would not include Harrison, Pryor or Brace. I would add Barrett, who Belichick likes and will probably give another chance.
HARRISON is simply camp fodder that knows the system
PRYOR definitely has a roster spot if he can avoid IR before the season starts,
BRACE has shown little. As of now, I would expect him to make the roster.
In a sense, you acknowledge that we need a DL, since you list 7 core players for 7 roster spots.
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So my bottom line has 7 holes/needs instead of your 5.
Yes, I would be happy with 5 defensive players. although I would also be fine with 4 in the first 3 rounds.
My top priorities (given what is available in the draft) early are DE, DB, and DT.
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LINEBACKER
Perhaps we will find an OLB, perhaps not. I would certainly "settle" for one of the top ILBs.
In any case, we have what we had last year, with Scott instead of Anderson. As of now, we have many competing for the backup OLB spots including Carter, Cunningham and Carpenter. White seems to be a lock for one of the FOUR open LB spots.
My BOTTOM LINE at LB is that you list 5 players for 9 roster spots. Perhaps the draft will help, perhaps not.
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SAFETY
I agree that we are likely to draft a safety or a corner with the idea of one of the corners moving to safety.
Some have suggested that we draft two safeties, a starter and a backup who will contribute in 2012. I think this very unreasonable. It is much more likely that we will draft one who will contribute in 2013, perhaps a bit in 2012. The quality is very weak indeed.
To me, it is the mark of desperation to use a 1st rounder for Barron or Smith (Barron will be long gone in any case). I expect both players to long gone by #48. I like some of the
later round players (Martin at 93 or Henry at 125), but I would not expect them to start.
We forget how poor our safeties were for the last half of 2011. We played with walkons. Even Chung was injured. A healthy Chung, Gregory, Barrett (plus a Ster) is much stronger than 2011. Draft a corner to develop as a free safety and we're all set. Obviously, it is possible that the corner could remain a corner, with one of the existing corners moving to safety.
IMHO, Chung, McCourty, Gregory and Barrett would give us a much better safety group than 2011. Arrington, Dowling, Moore, Allen might be a bit weaker than in 2011, although that is not a sure thing by any means. The key is to DRAFT a corner in the first 2 rounds.
HARRISON is simply camp fodder that knows the system
PRYOR definitely has a roster spot if he can avoid IR before the season starts,
BRACE has shown little. As of now, I would expect him to make the roster.
In a sense, you acknowledge that we need a DL, since you list 7 core players for 7 roster spots.
================================
So my bottom line has 7 holes/needs instead of your 5.
Yes, I would be happy with 5 defensive players. although I would also be fine with 4 in the first 3 rounds.
My top priorities (given what is available in the draft) early are DE, DB, and DT.
==================
LINEBACKER
Perhaps we will find an OLB, perhaps not. I would certainly "settle" for one of the top ILBs.
In any case, we have what we had last year, with Scott instead of Anderson. As of now, we have many competing for the backup OLB spots including Carter, Cunningham and Carpenter. White seems to be a lock for one of the FOUR open LB spots.
My BOTTOM LINE at LB is that you list 5 players for 9 roster spots. Perhaps the draft will help, perhaps not.
==================
SAFETY
I agree that we are likely to draft a safety or a corner with the idea of one of the corners moving to safety.
Some have suggested that we draft two safeties, a starter and a backup who will contribute in 2012. I think this very unreasonable. It is much more likely that we will draft one who will contribute in 2013, perhaps a bit in 2012. The quality is very weak indeed.
To me, it is the mark of desperation to use a 1st rounder for Barron or Smith (Barron will be long gone in any case). I expect both players to long gone by #48. I like some of the
later round players (Martin at 93 or Henry at 125), but I would not expect them to start.
We forget how poor our safeties were for the last half of 2011. We played with walkons. Even Chung was injured. A healthy Chung, Gregory, Barrett (plus a Ster) is much stronger than 2011. Draft a corner to develop as a free safety and we're all set. Obviously, it is possible that the corner could remain a corner, with one of the existing corners moving to safety.
IMHO, Chung, McCourty, Gregory and Barrett would give us a much better safety group than 2011. Arrington, Dowling, Moore, Allen might be a bit weaker than in 2011, although that is not a sure thing by any means. The key is to DRAFT a corner in the first 2 rounds.
Defense: 19
DE: Fanene, Harrison, Deaderick, Pryor - 4
NT: Wilfork, Love, Brace - 3
OLB: Nink, Scott - 2
LB: Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher - 3
CB: McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Cole - 5
S: Chung, Gregory - 2
total: 48
Leaves us w/ 5 spots.
I don't necessarily agree w/ the logic of the OP but given our team's roster I don't want to draft a bunch of guys who won't make the team. Give me 1 S, 1 OLB, 1 DL and then 2 more defenders at any position and I'll be happy.