How Many New Players Will We Actually Get From This Draft?

[Ochmed Jones]

I have seen enough of Josh Barrett and Sergio Brown at safety to realize neither will improve the New England Patriots defense. In addition, Myron Pryor is injury prone and has totaled one career quarterback sack. An upgrade is warranted on the defensive line for not only Myron Pryor but also Ron Brace. For the defense alone, I can foresee five to six upgrades:

2 - Defensive Lineman
1 - Outside Linebacker
2 - Safeties
1 - Cornerback (depends on Dowling's health and McCourty's revival)

I like your list of needs. One change I would make is if Light decides to retire, I would replace 1 safety with an OT.

A couple of months ago, i wrote that my perfect first round would be DE Brockers of LSU and DE Cox of Miss State. I don't see that happening now, but would not be disappointed with DE Brockers (trade up #27 and #62 for #19) and DE Reyes of Uconn at #31 and OLB Curry of Marshall at #48. Then we could could back with OT Potter of Boise State and FS Martin of Ok State at that would be a very good draft for me.

 

[supafly]

I like your list of needs. One change I would make is if Light decides to retire, I would replace 1 safety with an OT.

A couple of months ago, i wrote that my perfect first round would be DE Brockers of LSU and DE Cox of Miss State. I don't see that happening now, but would not be disappointed with DE Brockers (trade up #27 and #62 for #19) and DE Reyes of Uconn at #31 and OLB Curry of Marshall at #48. Then we could could back with OT Potter of Boise State and FS Martin of Ok State at that would be a very good draft for me.

Good God man, that draft would be incredible.

 

[supafly]

If he is available at 31 is he worth a pick? I am not sure if ILB is one of our main needs. We have Mayo and Spikes. If Spikes can stay free of injury I have always said that he will be a beast - one of the best IMO.

He would certainly be 'worth' the pick, yes.

It would have to depend on how Belichick chose to go, BPA vs drafting a player of need in that situation.

The room at the inn would be awfully crowded with Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Tarp, White, and Kuechly.

It doesn't really matter anyway, b/c there's no way he lasts anywhere even close to that. There are a lot of projections that have him as early as 10 and as late as 15. He would never last past the late teens.

 

[supafly]

I agree with what your saying. When you Draft you pick a player on the potential he can play in the NFL. There are no guarantees. When you trade like a Welker or a Moss or pick up a FA like a Cater, the body of work about the ability to compete is complete. .....But,,,,What I am saying is BB turns over that first round pick year to year and just carries it over.

Here is my analogy. You have a weekly poker game. You pick up an ACE. There is an ACE down staring at you. Instead of playing it, you hold it. You didn't capitalize on the ACE to perhaps go all in to win the pot right now. The guy next to you then picks up three Deuces and in your hand, the ACE is now worthless. He would have folded. You let him keep on adding to his hand.
Holding the ACE doesn't guarantee you can win now unless you at least try for the play. What in the name of everything holy does BB think that in 2013, surely the guy we Draft in the first round that we passed in 09,10,11 and now in 13 form our same old endless carry over scheme, he is much better than the guy they could have played in 2012? Just sayin.

If you sit and analyses this it makes no sense. It's not like we lose our 2013 first rounder for spending our "forever and ever" extra first round pick this year. BB would make you think that. Great Coach. Metza Metz Drafter. Does he have a crystal ball that says the guy we pick at #27 or #31 in 2012 will certainly not be as good as the guys we pick hopefully in 2013 at #32 and whatever. Like you say, a crapshoot. One day he has to play that ACE.

So it goes back to the Thread. If we have six and he lowers the standard of said pick by dropping it down to a round that states it is of less talent and in the meantime send the added pick we will surely get to 2013, the opportunity that the 2nd or 3rd round player does not work out is greatly enhanced. I said use a term of three years. For every Hernandez or Koppen, there is a Butler, or this year Brace, who signify failure in the top end of the Draft but traded down from round one to get. Most were proven to be failures at or directly after three years of service to the Pats.

That being said the higher the Draft pick, the better the player as a rule. Look at the first and second Team 2011 NFL Pro Bowlers.

Its quality versus quantity in BB's Draft. This "value" is political talk and they don't believe it either.
DW Toys

I get your frustration, I really do. I don't really 'agree' with it, but obviously I do understand it.

We can go around forever, trying to debate this.

You are going to have your opinion, and I am going to have mine. I don't consider myself 'right' and you 'wrong.' They are just 2 very different approaches.

Maybe this is the year that Belichick moves up, spends all the picks, and does everything that you want him to do. I'd argue whether or not that would be best for the team, the possible additional draft picks, and the future though.

 

[Joey007]

Jared Allen isn't happening unless he takes a pay cut. Coming off a 22 sack season, he'd have every right to completely laugh at anybody who asks him to take a pay cut. It's not happening. Give it up.

I second this. For one, I don't think Allen's even on the market, and even if he is, something tells me the 22 sacks he recorded last year cost a king's ransom. Not to mention he's expensive and probably wouldn't take a paycut like Sciz said.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Holding the ACE doesn't guarantee you can win now unless you at least try for the play. What in the name of everything holy does BB think that in 2013, surely the guy we Draft in the first round that we passed in 09,10,11 and now in 13 form our same old endless carry over scheme, he is much better than the guy they could have played in 2012? Just sayin.

This is not a very good analogy.

The best analogy I've heard is that of an annuity or a certificate of deposit: you can cash it in, and use all the money at once, or you can keep it in the bank and take the interest on it.

 

[Metaphors]

This is not a very good analogy.

The best analogy I've heard is that of an annuity or a certificate of deposit: you can cash it in, and use all the money at once, or you can keep it in the bank and take the interest on it.

That still has the "use it all now vs. use it all later" false choice. How about this:

You have a lot of older relatives and they all really like you. Unfortunately, one relative dies every April and leaves you with a $100,000 inheritance. Last year, you could have bought a Mercedes S-class but it really didn't fit your lifestyle (tax bill, maintenance costs, driving habits). Instead, you get a fully-loaded Fusion hybrid (still pricey but more your speed) and invest the rest in a stock that you think has the potential to grow significantly in the next year.

Now this year I cash in the stock. It may have increased in value a lot (SF trade) in which case I buy a house that I could never otherwise afford (Mayo). Worst case the stock is about the same value (NO trade) and I can just make a down payment on a smaller house. Like last year, I take my annual inheritance and split it by getting something I need now and investing for the next year.

So the Pats philosophy works because they get current value AND future value. When they are able to get THEIR guy and the future value is much better than expected, the Pats win big. The real bonus to this approach is that it is self-feeding and repeats every year...assuming they can find a trade partner.

The Pats certainly could miss out on targeted guys and screw up their future pick so the methodology isn't foolproof. Packaging picks/trading up (Jets) or trading for players (Redskins until recently) is an equally valid approach. History seems to indicate that the Pats and their draft contemporaries (PIT, GB, PHI until recently, IND) have done exceptionally well.

 

[Joey007]

I like your list of needs. One change I would make is if Light decides to retire, I would replace 1 safety with an OT.

I don't think OT's much of a need. We have Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, and Gallery even if Light retires. I'd say center is more of a need that we should draft in the 2nd-3rd round. Ben Jones is a guy who intrigues me there.

My dream draft would be OLB and S in the first round, then DE and a center in the 2nd round. 3rd-4th be more OLB/DB depth, or maybe even skill position players.

 

[rdf63]

To a certain extent, I disagree. 3-4 defensive end, 3-4 outside linebacker, safety are the three top draft priorities for the New England Patriots defense in 2012.

As for the slot cornerback position, Kyle Arrington and Will Allen will compete for the aforementioned position.

Running back is a higher priority than wide receiver or interior offensive line due to Danny Woodhead's contract expiration in 2013 and the lack of halfbacks currently on the roster.

I have seen enough of Josh Barrett and Sergio Brown at safety to realize neither will improve the New England Patriots defense. In addition, Myron Pryor is injury prone and has totaled one career quarterback sack. An upgrade is warranted on the defensive line for not only Myron Pryor but also Ron Brace. For the defense alone, I can foresee five to six upgrades:

2 - Defensive Lineman
1 - Outside Linebacker
2 - Safeties
1 - Cornerback (depends on Dowling's health and McCourty's revival)

Absolutely agree with the strategy and want to add a little to the thinking
2 - Defensive Lineman (1 immediate starter) including Brockers and one is DT/DE type of athlete (Still, Worthy, Cox). The addition of one potential pro bowl caliber DL would help the D immensely.
1 - Outside Linebacker (physical player with good size and power) - Hightower, McClellin, Perry would be a good addition to a strong and young Pats LB core.
2 - Safeties (1 immediate starter) and 1 who will also see a lot of action immediately to effectively take Chungs place if needed. Draft very physical and athletic athletes. Chung is a good player WHEN healthy and I want to Pats to go after Barron, Smith, Iloka, Taylor, Janzen Jackson...
1 - Cornerback - Depends on health and could be steals in the third/fourth round. Still consider drafting a C or OG/OT in the fourth round if a solid cb like Leanord Johnson (Iowa) or Ryan Steed are not available. Players like Potter of Boise State could be available and one benefit of a terrible showing at the combine is Brewster (c) from Ohio State and Ben Jones have dropped from late 2nd to late 4th round value. The benefits of a center is he can join Solder, Cannon and Volmer(stay healthy!!) and that is the core of the Pats future OL.

What the Pats need from the 2012 is immediate starters at safety, DT, DE/OLB and Dowling to take the position he should have last year.

 

[supafly]

What the Pats need from the 2012 is immediate starters at safety, DT, DE/OLB and Dowling to take the position he should have last year.

Well, at least your wish list is somewhat reasonable, with only 3 immediate starters from the draft.

I still think that we 'need' at least 2, with 3 being a huge bonus.

I think that we're more likely to see starters from the draft on the D-line, as opposed to OLB and S, which seems to be more 'slowly blended in' positions on a Belichick defense. (besides the 2003 season where CB Wilson was moved to safety, where he contributed a decent amount)

 

[DW Toys]

I get your frustration, I really do. I don't really 'agree' with it, but obviously I do understand it.

We can go around forever, trying to debate this.

You are going to have your opinion, and I am going to have mine. I don't consider myself 'right' and you 'wrong.' They are just 2 very different approaches.

Maybe this is the year that Belichick moves up, spends all the picks, and does everything that you want him to do. I'd argue whether or not that would be best for the team, the possible additional draft picks, and the future though.

Fair enough.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

This is not a very good analogy.

The best analogy I've heard is that of an annuity or a certificate of deposit: you can cash it in, and use all the money at once, or you can keep it in the bank and take the interest on it.

The problem is, this annuity bears no interest so keeping it pays no dividends. Its is worth the same this year as next. In fact depreciation caused by lesser talented players in the 2013 Draft could happen.

Not crazy about that annuity analogy either, but someone will come up with something spiffy.

If the Mayan calendar deal comes true, he better better use the picks in this Draft. How was that?
DW Toys

 

[supafly]

Fair enough.
DW Toys

I get what you're saying FWIW.

I think some of the frustration lies in the actual selections, rather than the specific drafting strategy.

If Belichick were to have hit on some of the guys who may have been more successful, then he'd be viewed as a genius by many who are questioning his drafting strategy.

Unfortunately, I think we're always going to see hit/miss with the drafts, as it is an awfully big gamble of sorts--especially when players who may have succeeded become injured (Pryor), or we sign players who are better than them and push them down the depth chart (Cunningham).

There are however, a ton of 'hits' to be happy with too.

I think a couple good players in the front 7 would make a world of difference for the upcoming season, and would really limit our holes.

 

[Avenger]

I've made a watch list of players that I think would be good for the Pats, I'm not saying take all or even most of them, just ones to look at as options for our picks, I believe they are much more valuable than their draft stock or are otherwise good additions to the team if they fall to the right position where it makes them far and away the BPA. I don't see WR, TE or RB as needs this year, so I don't expect the Pats to take one before round 3-4 if at all, however if they are available at value and the best player at that point in the draft with no trade partners I wouldn't be opposed to them being brought in, and I expect to see some UDFA's as camp fodder mostly. I focused more on need positions in the early rounds, and I expect trading around the board by BB.

CB
Brandon Boykin CB/KR
Casey Hayward CB
Keith Tandy CB/FS

S
Harrison Smith FS/SS/OLB
Trenton Robinson FS/CB/ST
Janzen Jackson FS/SS/CB

C/G
David Molk OG/C
Josh LeRibeus OG
Desmond Wynn OG/DT

LB/DE
Bruce Irvin OLB/DE
Dont'a Hightower ILB/OLB
Vinny Curry DE/OLB

QB
Kellen Moore QB

RB
LaMichael James RB
Dan Herron RB
Cyrus Gray RB
Emil Igwenagu FB

WR
Chris Owusu WR/KR
Brian Quick WR
Mohamed Sanu WR

TE
James Hanna TE
Kevin Koger TE

 

[DW Toys]

I've made a watch list of players that I think would be good for the Pats, I'm not saying take all or even most of them, just ones to look at as options for our picks, I believe they are much more valuable than their draft stock or are otherwise good additions to the team if they fall to the right position where it makes them far and away the BPA. I don't see WR, TE or RB as needs this year, so I don't expect the Pats to take one before round 3-4 if at all, however if they are available at value and the best player at that point in the draft with no trade partners I wouldn't be opposed to them being brought in, and I expect to see some UDFA's as camp fodder mostly. I focused more on need positions in the early rounds, and I expect trading around the board by BB.




It's hard work to put time and effort into this. Thanks for that effort.
I agree with some and not others. My two sense on a few.

CB
Brandon Boykin CB/KR= Very small. I think BB learned a hard lessen with the myth "quick twitch" CB. It might have cost us a SB. Dowling is the size CB you need with every Team having a 6'3" or 6'4" WR. Moss changed the game. Weatley etc.same boat as your dwarf CB here. It's a matter of physics.

Casey Hayward CB =Small-See above


S
Harrison Smith FS/SS/OLB=Great choice IMO.

Janzen Jackson FS/SS/CB= A felony waiting to happen

C/G
David Molk OG/C=About 6' tall and thinks very highly of himself.


LB/DE
Bruce Irvin OLB/DE=Sleeper whom I like. Great story

Dont'a Hightower ILB/OLB.=ILB and not a great need.

Vinny Curry DE/OLB=A must have in this Draft. We are very quite about this kid.

QB
Kellen Moore QB= about 5'11" and a noodle arm

RB
LaMichael James RB=We have a little taller same thing in Vereen


WR
Chris Owusu WR/KR=One concussion away from perhaps hanging them up

Brian Quick WR=Not bad

Mohamed Sanu WR=He is a JAG. Nothing special. No deep threat.Why?

Your opinion is just as valid as mine though.

DW Toys

 

[supafly]

I've made a watch list of players that I think would be good for the Pats, I'm not saying take all or even most of them, just ones to look at as options for our picks, I believe they are much more valuable than their draft stock or are otherwise good additions to the team if they fall to the right position where it makes them far and away the BPA. I don't see WR, TE or RB as needs this year, so I don't expect the Pats to take one before round 3-4 if at all, however if they are available at value and the best player at that point in the draft with no trade partners I wouldn't be opposed to them being brought in, and I expect to see some UDFA's as camp fodder mostly. I focused more on need positions in the early rounds, and I expect trading around the board by BB.

CB
Brandon Boykin CB/KR
Casey Hayward CB
Keith Tandy CB/FS

S
Harrison Smith FS/SS/OLB
Trenton Robinson FS/CB/ST
Janzen Jackson FS/SS/CB

C/G
David Molk OG/C
Josh LeRibeus OG
Desmond Wynn OG/DT

LB/DE
Bruce Irvin OLB/DE
Dont'a Hightower ILB/OLB
Vinny Curry DE/OLB

QB
Kellen Moore QB

RB
LaMichael James RB
Dan Herron RB
Cyrus Gray RB
Emil Igwenagu FB

WR
Chris Owusu WR/KR
Brian Quick WR
Mohamed Sanu WR

TE
James Hanna TE
Kevin Koger TE

Certainly some talent on that list.

What round is Kellen Moore projected to go in? Just curious.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with all that you have posted.

We can say that we need to use the 1st and 2nd to draft a 5 tech DE and 3-4 pass-rushing OLB as much as we want. We need to recognize that these players are rare. Even if there are the 3 we need available, there will be other teams drafting.

I AGREE that we will be very lucky to get ONE starting quality 5 tech DL.

Myron Pryor is not a 5-Tech defensive Lineman. Neither is Marcus Harrison. Harrison is a potential LDE at best, but more than likely, just a camp body. The guy hasn't been able to stick anywhere. And that includes a 3 day stint with the Pats this past fall.

Unfortunately, the Pats are not going to find TWO "Five-Tech" DEs in this draft. Not with where they are picking. Heck, they are going to be lucky if there is ONE available who can come in and be effective by mid-season.

The rest i can basically agree with you on..

 

[ATippett56]

After reviewing the depth issues concerning the New England Patriots defense, especially on the defensive line, the following hypothetical draft scenario emerges:

#27 Overall
Michael Brockers, DT LSU
Devon Still, DT Penn State
Kendall Reyes, DT Connecticut

#31 Overall
Trade to Eagles for #51 overall, #200 overall, 2013 2nd Round Draft Pick

Trade #48, #51 Overall to Minnesota for #35, #66 Overall

#35 Overall
Shea McClellin, 3-4 ILB/OLB Boise State

#62 Overall
Josh Chapman, NT Alabama (say bye-bye to Ron "bust" Brace)

Trade #66 Overall to Arizona for #80, #112 Overall

#80 Overall
Brandon Boykin, CB Georgia (slot cornerback)
Ron Brooks, CB LSU (slot cornerback)
Chase Minnifield, CB Virginia (slot cornerback)

#93 Overall
Markelle Martin, FS Oklahoma State

#112 Overall
Ryan Broyles, WR Oklahoma (PUP/IR candidate)

#126 Overall
Brandon Taylor, SS LSU
Aaron Henry, FS Wisconsin
Brandon Hardin, FS Oregon State

#200 Overall
Markus Kuhn, DT North Carolina State

Due to a weak safety class, it is not worth expending a first or second round draft pick on either a strong safety or free safety.

 

[mgteich]

NITPICKS ON OFFENSE
Your structure is fine and your guesses make sense,

1) Obviously, lots can happen to affect the final roster. Roster winners at WR and possible OL retirements are the most obvious.

2) If we look to the future (sort of the point of the draft), then it clearly reasonable to consider a WR and/or OL. Surely, Waters, Light and Gallery are likely to be gone in 2012.

MY PREFERENCE
Draft an OL. This doesn't contradict your conclusions however, other than to understand that the draft can be used for upgrades and the future as well as current needs.

ST: 5
Ghost, Mesko, Aiken (LS), White, Slater

Offense: 24
QB: Brady, Mallet, Hoyer - 3
RB: Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead, 1 of FB’s - 4
WR: Welker, Lloyd, Gonzalez, Branch, Edelman - 5
OT: Light, Solder, Vollmer, Cannon - 4
OG: Waters, Mankins, Gallery - 3
OC: Connoly, Wendell - 2
TE: Gronk, Hernandez, Fells - 3

 

[Avenger]

Certainly some talent on that list.

What round is Kellen Moore projected to go in? Just curious.

6 or 7 is projected