How Many New Players Will We Actually Get From This Draft?

[mgteich]

Your base 19 is very generous. I would not include Harrison, Pryor or Brace. I would add Barrett, who Belichick likes and will probably give another chance.

HARRISON is simply camp fodder that knows the system

PRYOR definitely has a roster spot if he can avoid IR before the season starts,

BRACE has shown little. As of now, I would expect him to make the roster.

In a sense, you acknowledge that we need a DL, since you list 7 core players for 7 roster spots.
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So my bottom line has 7 holes/needs instead of your 5.

Yes, I would be happy with 5 defensive players. although I would also be fine with 4 in the first 3 rounds.

My top priorities (given what is available in the draft) early are DE, DB, and DT.
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LINEBACKER
Perhaps we will find an OLB, perhaps not. I would certainly "settle" for one of the top ILBs.

In any case, we have what we had last year, with Scott instead of Anderson. As of now, we have many competing for the backup OLB spots including Carter, Cunningham and Carpenter. White seems to be a lock for one of the FOUR open LB spots.

My BOTTOM LINE at LB is that you list 5 players for 9 roster spots. Perhaps the draft will help, perhaps not.
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SAFETY
I agree that we are likely to draft a safety or a corner with the idea of one of the corners moving to safety.

Some have suggested that we draft two safeties, a starter and a backup who will contribute in 2012. I think this very unreasonable. It is much more likely that we will draft one who will contribute in 2013, perhaps a bit in 2012. The quality is very weak indeed.
To me, it is the mark of desperation to use a 1st rounder for Barron or Smith (Barron will be long gone in any case). I expect both players to long gone by #48. I like some of the
later round players (Martin at 93 or Henry at 125), but I would not expect them to start.

We forget how poor our safeties were for the last half of 2011. We played with walkons. Even Chung was injured. A healthy Chung, Gregory, Barrett (plus a Ster) is much stronger than 2011. Draft a corner to develop as a free safety and we're all set. Obviously, it is possible that the corner could remain a corner, with one of the existing corners moving to safety.

IMHO, Chung, McCourty, Gregory and Barrett would give us a much better safety group than 2011. Arrington, Dowling, Moore, Allen might be a bit weaker than in 2011, although that is not a sure thing by any means. The key is to DRAFT a corner in the first 2 rounds.

Defense: 19
DE: Fanene, Harrison, Deaderick, Pryor - 4
NT: Wilfork, Love, Brace - 3
OLB: Nink, Scott - 2
LB: Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher - 3
CB: McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Cole - 5
S: Chung, Gregory - 2

total: 48

Leaves us w/ 5 spots.

I don't necessarily agree w/ the logic of the OP but given our team's roster I don't want to draft a bunch of guys who won't make the team. Give me 1 S, 1 OLB, 1 DL and then 2 more defenders at any position and I'll be happy.

 

[Avenger]

My rebuttal:

I've made a watch list of players that I think would be good for the Pats, I'm not saying take all or even most of them, just ones to look at as options for our picks, I believe they are much more valuable than their draft stock or are otherwise good additions to the team if they fall to the right position where it makes them far and away the BPA. I don't see WR, TE or RB as needs this year, so I don't expect the Pats to take one before round 3-4 if at all, however if they are available at value and the best player at that point in the draft with no trade partners I wouldn't be opposed to them being brought in, and I expect to see some UDFA's as camp fodder mostly. I focused more on need positions in the early rounds, and I expect trading around the board by BB.




It's hard work to put time and effort into this. Thanks for that effort.
I agree with some and not others. My two sense on a few.

CB
Brandon Boykin CB/KR= Very small. I think BB learned a hard lessen with the myth "quick twitch" CB. It might have cost us a SB. Dowling is the size CB you need with every Team having a 6'3" or 6'4" WR. Moss changed the game. Weatley etc.same boat as your dwarf CB here. It's a matter of physics.With a WR corps comprised of veterans who don't do special teams, he would provide good ST play and be perfect at nickleback or dimeback, he was the best KR in NCAA DI

Casey Hayward CB =Small-See above


S
Harrison Smith FS/SS/OLB=Great choice IMO.

Janzen Jackson FS/SS/CB= A felony waiting to happen BB has taken players who have slid because of similar issues (Hernandez), look how that turned out?

C/G
David Molk OG/C=About 6' tall and thinks very highly of himself.


LB/DE
Bruce Irvin OLB/DE=Sleeper whom I like. Great story

Dont'a Hightower ILB/OLB.=ILB and not a great need.If he is there at 27 he would be the best player available and can play OLB, I've watched 'Bama games, also provides depth at ILB

Vinny Curry DE/OLB=A must have in this Draft. We are very quite about this kid.

QB
Kellen Moore QB= about 5'11" and a noodle armMoore has the most football intelligence of any QB in at least the last 5 years, and he is 6 feet even, same as Brees. Arm strength is the most overrated part of the draft process for QBs in my opinion, and I'm not the only one to hold it

RB
LaMichael James RB=We have a little taller same thing in VereenYeah, I realize this isn't a need but if he falls to the right spot I would jump all over him, after all we are a RBBC team


WR
Chris Owusu WR/KR=One concussion away from perhaps hanging them up As an UDFA it can't hurt to bring him in for a look, he has been medically cleared

Brian Quick WR=Not bad

Mohamed Sanu WR=He is a JAG. Nothing special. No deep threat.Why? BB loves Rutgers prospects, and possibly the best route runner in the class

Your opinion is just as valid as mine though.

DW Toys

 

[mgteich]

At what draft pick do you think you get "high-profile players"?

If we trade our 4 lowest picks, the trade value would be equal to Pick 19.

Would 19, 27 and 31 then count as a high-profile picks?

Maybe 2 out the 3 will be significant contributors in 2012, perhaps not. And then, we would not be able to even have a shot at finding anything later.

Your is the jets strategy. I reject it now, as I have in the past.

We all go to the end of April with Sugar Plumbs dancing in our head as Draft day appears. Except the Patriots fans that know how Belichick works perhaps Pats fans go in with low expectations, or at least they say that. I really think that we still all remain optimistic until we see the results at the end and see obvious flaws that most in this forum, will point out and be astutely correct.....But in all nievity we still hope that each and every selection makes an impact.

Trading down is an unpleasant subject to Pats fans.In fact Andy Hart just mentioned that since BB has been "buying the groceries", He has traded out of the first round pick for a future first round pick three years, and a total of eight times Belichick has either traded down or out with his first-round pick. And he’s traded down or out with a first-round pick in each of the last five drafts.

In fact it is proven BB is better at picking up FA, trades, UDFA than he does with his unremarkable down trading that have brought mixed results. It is also pretty ambitious thinking from all NFL fans and management that a single Draft day can make a Teams fortune, although a few have struck gold that day like the 74 Steeler Draft. Just don't be surprised at the results I have found.

There are 32 NFL Teams and all of the fans of each Team fan listens to the "Build Through The Draft" myth spun by the experts.

In Last years Draft 254 players were picked. Only 47 on them became actual full time starters or just 18%. . That is not even two players per Team. Another 4 started in at least 10 games and another 18 started in at least 5 as they worked themselves higher on depth charts. So we can use 69 as an extended success number or 27%. The single or few starts can be attributed to roster injury or end of year implications. Kicking game players were not figured in of the few in the 254.

Over a three year period on time, some of these 69 players will be injured, be traded or just be replaced by better players so the initial number goes down, but the fact that other Drafted players this year will ascend to be starters or high profile players and the percentages even out.

The Pats go to the Draft with six choices. Honestly, the chances are that less than two (say two) will work out to be full time starters or impact players on this Team. They do increase in success the higher they are Drafted!

The first and second Team All Pro players from 2011, over 90% were first or second round Draft picks.

The Point? The Pats have the opportunity to trade up and perhaps gain maybe three high profile players. Those are actually considered a good Draft. Six of those we have now for April, if we stand on those choices, 4 will wash out. The percentages say to uptrade and BB swapping down has only gotten us next years picks. It's like Groundhog Day with Bill Murray.

All NFL Fans have the same problem. "All seven choices will make my Team!"...Nyet, won't happen.

In the 2011 Draft the Team with the most starters from the Draft was the Cleveland Browns. One of the least amount of Starters in 2011 was the Packers at 0 for 9. The Browns had a need to get those guys playing. The Pack can wait to develop them. Better Teams can wait on players. BPA is also a myth. Teams to pigeon hole needs which brings us to the Pats.

.......At the end of the Day PASS RUSHERS ,...... we can't be looking for pass rushers from this Draft to replace the two we lost because chances are (and by facts) only two from our whole Draft will be quality players.

How do we obtain more pass rush from the loss of Anderson and maybe Carter? Scott might be o.k. but to say we are going to positively get two in the Draft may be folly. I say take one of these 1st round picks BB will likely trade anyway and go after Jared Allen.....or just package all your choices up to get to the front so you can get a couple....THE PASS RUSH IS WHAT EVERYONE HAS SAID THE PATS BIGGEST 2012 NEED IS.

Everyone made fun of Ditka and the Falcons last year of packaging up choices to get the guy they wanted. Wasn't that dumb.

Year after year it has been proven the actual Team Draft success is 17% of quality players retained for a term of three years for determination.

Your Thoughts?
DW Toys

 

[ATippett56]

Your is the jets strategy. I reject it now, as I have in the past.

What DW Toys fails to realize is that Jared Allen was drafted in the fourth round (#126 overall) of the 2004 NFL Draft. Drafting pass rushers in the first round does not guarantee success.

 

[ATippett56]

My rebuttal:

I am starting to warm up to the idea of drafting Brandon Boykin, however no earlier than the third round.

 

[rdf63]

Besides TB and WW what does the remaining core of the Pats have in common including Mayo, Spikes, Gronk, Mankins, Chung, McCourty...they were first and second round picks. If Hernandez didn't have some problems at Florida and Cannon wasnt ill, both should have also been 2nd round picks. They Pats have to get at least 3 immediate starters in this years draft including a DL, OL and safety.
Why? the defense has a lot of good young high draft pick players to build around and now it is time to complete it. Besides the talent, lets look at the age:
Chung - 24
Spikes - 24
McCourty - 24
Kyle Love - 25 (solid role player)
Mayo - 26
Wolfork -30
The Pats defense is a young talented group and FORGET about "piling" picks and build a potentially GREAT defense now. Even additional players like Ninko (28) and if he does stay healthy Dowling (23) have a lot of years left and its time to use the picks smartly and forget about "project" players and get immediate starters.

 

[DW Toys]

Your base 19 is very generous. I would not include Harrison, Pryor or Brace. I would add Barrett, who Belichick likes and will probably give another chance.

HARRISON is simply camp fodder that knows the system

PRYOR definitely has a roster spot if he can avoid IR before the season starts,

BRACE has shown little. As of now, I would expect him to make the roster.

In a sense, you acknowledge that we need a DL, since you list 7 core players for 7 roster spots.
================================
So my bottom line has 7 holes/needs instead of your 5.

Yes, I would be happy with 5 defensive players. although I would also be fine with 4 in the first 3 rounds.

My top priorities (given what is available in the draft) early are DE, DB, and DT.
==================
LINEBACKER
Perhaps we will find an OLB, perhaps not. I would certainly "settle" for one of the top ILBs.

In any case, we have what we had last year, with Scott instead of Anderson. As of now, we have many competing for the backup OLB spots including Carter, Cunningham and Carpenter. White seems to be a lock for one of the FOUR open LB spots.

My BOTTOM LINE at LB is that you list 5 players for 9 roster spots. Perhaps the draft will help, perhaps not.
==================

SAFETY
I agree that we are likely to draft a safety or a corner with the idea of one of the corners moving to safety.

Some have suggested that we draft two safeties, a starter and a backup who will contribute in 2012. I think this very unreasonable. It is much more likely that we will draft one who will contribute in 2013, perhaps a bit in 2012. The quality is very weak indeed.
To me, it is the mark of desperation to use a 1st rounder for Barron or Smith (Barron will be long gone in any case). I expect both players to long gone by #48. I like some of the
later round players (Martin at 93 or Henry at 125), but I would not expect them to start.

We forget how poor our safeties were for the last half of 2011. We played with walkons. Even Chung was injured. A healthy Chung, Gregory, Barrett (plus a Ster) is much stronger than 2011. Draft a corner to develop as a free safety and we're all set. Obviously, it is possible that the corner could remain a corner, with one of the existing corners moving to safety.

IMHO, Chung, McCourty, Gregory and Barrett would give us a much better safety group than 2011. Arrington, Dowling, Moore, Allen might be a bit weaker than in 2011, although that is not a sure thing by any means. The key is to DRAFT a corner in the first 2 rounds.

Great stuff. Thanks you for that insight.
I have mentioned this numerous times on other threads but for those who remember Roman Pfifer who was a OLB but played a lot of Safety here. The best Safety in the Draft my have played the wrong position in college. He should be there at #48,
Zack Brown:

(Most excerpts from Rob Rang):

He is only beginning to learn how to maximize his exceptional ability on a football field, but Brown is fast and fascinating.

He has CB speed and skills.

He has an abundance of one natural ability that can't be taught -- speed. Brown officially set a school record in track with an indoor 60-meter time of 6.72 seconds in 2009. He checked in at the Combine with an unofficial best of 4.44 seconds in the 40 and actually seemed off stride in the middle of the run. He added a vertical jump of 33.5 inches.
His raw athleticism is tantalizing, but he lacks the instincts to be a great linebacker (THEN HE SHOULD BE A SAFETY!)and may need to add even more bulk than the additional six pounds he put on for the Combine since the season (GO BACK TO 225-230LBS TO PLAY THE S POSITION). Meantime, at the very least, he can be a terror on special teams, same as he was in college.
Analysis
Read & React: Still a work in progress in this area, though he showed improvement as the 2010 season wore on. Takes a false-step on occasion, but is an alert player whose rare speed puts him in position to make the play. Reacts quickly in pass coverage once the ball is thrown. Hustles to the ball.
Work in progress by good play-action, but has the flexibility and straight-line speed to recover. Gains good depth on his drops when in obvious passing situations. Keeps his head on a swivel and shows some feel for zone coverage. Reads the quarterback's eyes and can plant and break on the ball. At least average ball-skills for the position and has the athleticism to be a threat with the ball in his hands on a return (see INT return against Tennessee in the Music City Bowl). Has the physical skills to eventually excel in this area.
Pass Rush/Blitz: Very raw in this area. Possesses the explosive athleticism you can't coach, but relies almost exclusively on his speed and agility to elude blockers, including running backs. Doesn't show much in terms of pass rush technique (but still managed 5.5).
Intangibles: Two-sport athlete who also participates in track for North Carolina. Set the school record in the indoor 60-meter dash with a 6.72 time in 2009. Unofficially clocked at 4.28 seconds by UNC coaches during off-season conditioning in 2009.[/U] Was named a special teams captain in 2010 for earning the most points in Carolina's scoring system.
2011 Season
Brown earned first-team All-ACC honors and was a Butkus Award semifinalist in 2011 after leading the Tar Heels with 105 tackles. He also posted 13.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, three interceptions, three forced fumbles and four pass breakups. Brown closed out his career with a season-high 14 tackles in North Carolina's bowl game against Missouri--his fifth double-digit tackle game of the year. He totaled 230 career tackles, including 19 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, seven interceptions, four pass breakups and three forced fumbles.

Others praise Brown for his blanket coverage including thoes WR in the slot, awareness and ball skills. Tackling was not the best for an OLB in technique but at 105 of them in 2011 it was super for a Safety.

He is one of the fastest players to ever come into the NFL and 6'1" and about 235lbs. Can you see him on numerous Safety blitzes like Harrison?

If you compare his stats to Barron, Brown is the better Safety product. He was used wrong because he has those superb OLB intangibles but look how BB played OLB Roman Pfifer as a Safety. He has many snaps for Bill. He was very underrated here. Zack Brown has the ability to change the Safety game like LT changed the LB game.

This could be another new BB toy that would have others follow like the new TE game.

I respect your thoughts?

DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

What DW Toys fails to realize is that Jared Allen was drafted in the fourth round (#126 overall) of the 2004 NFL Draft. Drafting pass rushers in the first round does not guarantee success.

Hey, Brady was a sixth. I get it but when you look up the 2011 PRO BOWL fist and second Teams of approx 48 players, 40 were first or second round picks. or almost 85%. That was my point. I am not for a Jets strategy, but our trade downs have been documented and proved as mixed results. I am for FA and Trades anyway for the most part as the Draft is a Crap Shoot and roster filler that is turned yearly.

My point is if you have quality go for that over quantity. If that makes this a Jets thing , fine if you call it that, but I did not have that in mind. You get down to the fourths and fifths the percentages of a successful player are less than 15%.

Will you agree to this:
The Pats Drafting of an actual pass rusher that will be successful in the top two rounds has a higher rate of success that digging into round four and beyond even if you have more than one lower pick to "test". Cousin do you agree with that?
DW Toys

 

[rdf63]

Besides TB and WW what does the remaining core of the Pats have in common including Mayo, Spikes, Gronk, Mankins, Chung, McCourty...they were first and second round picks. If Hernandez didn't have some problems at Florida and Cannon wasnt ill, both could have also been 2nd round picks. They Pats need 3 immediate starters in this years draft including a DL, DE and safety.

Why? the defense has a lot of good young high draft pick players to build around and now it is time to complete the mission. Besides the talent, lets look at the age:

Chung - 24
Spikes - 24
McCourty - 24
Kyle Love - 25 (solid role palyer)
Mayo - 26
Wolfork -30

The Pats have a young talented group and FORGET about "piling" picks and build a potentially GREAT defense now. Even additional players like Ninko (28), hopefully Dowling (23) have a lot of years left and its time to use the picks smartly and forget about "project" players. This is what I want to see in the first two rounds of the 2012 draft who should be starters. I want all four picks to focus on defense ONLY.

- DT - 1 maybe 2 (ex. Cox, Still, Brockers, Worthy, Crick, Ta'amu).
- DT/DE (ex. Mercillus, Reyes) depending on which DT they pick.
- OLB (physical players - Hightower, Curry, Johnson)
- Safety (Barron or Smith) and hope Iloka is available in the 3rd round.

If the Pats have to get at least one DT, safety, DE and hopefully OLB immediate starter and they could have a solid and young defense. Last year showed skills but also weaknesses especially the lack of physical plays and intimidation. Any thought on this approach to the draft is welcome!

 

[ATippett56]

The defense has a lot of good young high draft pick players to build around and now it is time to complete the mission. Besides the talent, lets look at the age:

Chung - 24
Spikes - 24
McCourty - 24
Kyle Love - 25 (solid role palyer)
Mayo - 26
Wolfork -30

The Pats have a young talented group and FORGET about "piling" picks and build a potentially GREAT defense now. Even additional players like Ninko (28), hopefully Dowling (23) have a lot of years left and its time to use the picks smartly and forget about "project" players. This is what I want to see in the first two rounds of the 2012 draft who should be starters. I want all four picks to focus on defense ONLY.

- DT - 1 maybe 2 (ex. Cox, Still, Brockers, Worthy, Crick, Ta'amu).
- DT/DE (ex. Mercillus, Reyes) depending on which DT they pick.
- OLB (physical players - Hightower, Curry, Johnson)
- Safety (Barron or Smith) and hope Iloka is available in the 3rd round.

If the Pats have to get at least one DT, safety, DE and hopefully OLB immediate starter and they could have a solid and young defense. Last year showed skills but also weaknesses especially the lack of physical plays and intimidation. Any thought on this approach to the draft is welcome!

As of now, the only reliable defensive lineman on the New England Patriots roster are Wilfork, Deaderick, Love, Fanene. Ron Brace has worn out his welcome and has one foot out the door. Myron Pryor has been unable to stay completely healthy the last two seasons. Marcus Harrison is a complete joke. The New England Patriots need to add at least two possibly three defensive lineman in the 2012 NFL Draft. I also fully expect the New England Patriots to migrate back to the 3-4 defensive alignment.

At the 3-4 outside linebacker position, the New England Patriots currently have on the roster Rob Ninkovich, Trevor Scott, Jermaine Cunningham, Markell Carter. Another 3-4 outside linebacker should be selected in the 2012 NFL Draft to provide competition to a questionable crew aside from Rob Ninkovich. Trevor Scott has yet to play a down in the New England Patriots defense, Jermaine Cunningham was missing in action during the 2011 NFL Season, Markell Carter has yet to play a down in the New England Patriots defense.

At the safety position, the New England Patriots currently have on the roster Patrick Chung, Josh Barrett, Steve Gregory, Sergio Brown. Sergio Brown is certainly expendable and Steve Gregory is a backup, at best. Is Josh Barrett really a starting safety in the NFL? The New England Patriots definitely need to add another safety in the 2012 NFL Draft.