Hmm... let Talib walk and cut Wilfork?

[Kontradiction]

The Patriots need to get more athletic and aggressive at every level of the defense. I would think that much is clear after they didn't sniff Manning in the AFCCG and his receivers had no fear whatsoever of going over the middle. I'll start with Talib. Thus far, that trade has been great for us. He allowed McCourty to move back to safety and almost single handedly helped improve the pass defense. Unless your WR1 is an absolute burner ala DeSean Jackson or T.Y. Hilton, Talib is more than capable of taking him out of the game. That said, he's had constant injury issues with his hip throughout his career. He's missed time with the Bucs and the Pats two seasons in a row. In the biggest game of the season the last two years, the Pats couldn't count on him to stay on the field and his injuries in those games, along with a non-existant pass rush, have led to the team's demise.

Wilfork has been a consumate professional ever since the Pats drafted him. Since his rookie season, he has become the most dominant NT in all of football. He played the best game of his life down the stretch when we needed him to the most in the 2011 AFCCG against the Ravens and was bearing down on Eli in crunch time in Super Bowl XLVI until another spot on pass down the sideline to Manningham. He's been the anchor, the heart, and the leader of this defense. But he's also a very large man coming off of an Achilles tear on the wrong side of 30. On top of that, he has a large cap hit (I'm not going to mention the signing bonus because the team is responsible for that regardless of what happens).

With that said, I would let Talib walk and cut Wilfork after a lot of thought. Take the money that you're going to give to Talib and sign a guy like T.J. Ward. He'll bring a physical presence over the middle where slot receivers like Welker will no longer feel totally comfortable just taking a casual stroll between the numbers and converting short catches into longer gains against a softer-than-sponge-cake defense. If you're not a fan of Ward, the money could be used on a guy like Chandler or Pitta to upgrade the TE position while prospects like Deone Bucannon, Ed Reynolds, and Calvin Pryor are all available big hitter SS types in the draft. If you're looking for a corner, bigger and more physical corners that specialize in tight press coverage should be available in day two and beyond. As a Gator fan, I would recommend taking a look at Marcus Roberson or Louchez Purifoy (both guys over 6'), though Gilbert and Dennard are both intriguing prospects if you're willing to spend the draft capital on that position (which I'm not).

As for Wilfork, the DL as a whole one gapped a lot more from what I saw this season than any other season I can remember with Belichick as a head coach. I would bring back Kelly if for nothing more than a stop gap, hope Armstead can actually see the field, cut the hell out of Bequette, and target Tim Jernigan in the draft with my first round pick if he falls. Jernigan will be an excellent prospect as a one gapping DT in the 3 tech that actually had experience lining up at NT when FSU showed 3-4 looks. I'm also high on Louis Nix as a space eater who is dominant against the run and can get some push up the A gap against the pass, but I doubt he'll be available. A DT like Lindval Joseph is also available in FA and looks like he may command less than what we would be giving to Vince this year. I'm also high on Dominque Easley, a guy that was easily playing his way into a first round selection before he got injured this season against the Hurricanes. He should be available later on as well. I've given Murphy enough love on here already as well.

Any way you slice it, with the moves I just laid out, the team can get cap relief while getting more athletic at DT and DE, maintaining length and ability at CB, and becoming far more physical at the safety position. I love Wilfork and appreciate everything he's done for us, but I'm not the only one who has some serious doubts about his ability to come back and be even a percentage of what he once was. In the end, football is a business and you have to be in the business of winning to survive. Get the defense more athletic and aggressive while making a few moves on the offensive side of the ball and you're looking at a team that can potentially dominate it's conference on the way to another Lombardi trophy. Now fire away. I'm wearing my flak jacket today.

 

[signbabybrady]

I think it is a very realistic possibilty but I hesitate to pull the trigger in my own mind becuase when they are on the field they are absolute studs. This isn't the same as say Adrian Wilson for example, someone who has clearly passed his best days.

Vince is a concern as he is not young and has a huge cap hit but he could very likely bounce back from this injuey and have several solid years to come.

Talib is even stranger as he is still young and one of the top CBs in the league but he clearly has something that will not be going away.

Walk from these guys and we might not be as good next year but continuing to pay them might cost us for years.

As big as the cap hit is for Vince part of me thinks we should just play it out. Short term cost but we dont lose Vince and we dont pay for his future years until he proves he can comeback from the injury.

As for Talib I am not sure how we let him walk and I am not sure how we invest long term. Again I think the best option might be a one year deal and the only way to do this might be the franchise tag. Short term cost would be high but we dont pay future years for a guy who might miss games every year.

This approach would be costly this offseason and would leave us with little cap space for other things as we dont even really have the cap space for this without making other moves. I just cant past the thought of how good this year could have been with some added health and I am not ready to walk away from some of the talent but also cant get behind long term deals for them. I really think give me this years team especially returning the injured guys + a rookie class and we will have a very good team and I think this would be wiser rather than letting them walk and having to fill their spots.

Then I would try and find an interior DL in the draft and give him a year with Vince to learn and gives us a year to see what Armstead can do. I would also look to the draft for a DB to try and replace Talib before he walks though I think Dennard and Ryan could be the guys and maybe a safety would make more sense.


My offseason wish list is not large nor does it require expensive players:
1) Safety - IMO if we assume health to Vince, Kelly, Mayo, and Talib is back then IMO this is the obvious glaring hole on D. I like Gregory but clearly we can improve there.

2) Interior OL - I think we should be drafting something here as it is time to invest on the interior OL again and stop getting by with lesser talent. I am assuming Connelly could be a cap cut if he is back I still think we need more talent but obviously slightly less of a need.

3) Back Up TE who can start - I think this should be done through the draft as well and it would be great to find another flex TE like Ahern but anything that is capable of contributing to the passing game if Gronk misses time is a must.

4) Depth at LB - This can come from anywhere as I feel we have a solid group of starters in Mayo, Hightower, Collins but Fletcher is our best depth and with Spikes leaving we should be replacing that.

5) Back Up DE - I think we need to add a guy to rotate with Nink and Chandler as they seemed to wear down a little as the year went on having their worst game against Denver.

6) Interior DL - this is a funny spot to judge as this could be anywhere from completely full to fairly bare. If we bring back Kelly and Vince + Siliga, Armstead, Chris Jones, and Vellano and you have a lot of bodies. Kelly and Vince are gone and without knowing Armstead you are fairly bare.

 

[JackBauer]

You make some good points here.

I think Wilfork is likely gone for reasons that have been articulated here ad nauseum. The problem is it took them how long to find a CB of Talib's caliber after Samuel left? I think with all of the holes they need to fill elsewhere, we need to be careful about jettisoning too much proven (not to mention rare) talent without adequate replacements. Obviously someone like TJ Ward would be incredible, so a swap of Talib for Ward is something I could live with. Another option would be to re-up Talib, draft/sign another cornerback to push Arrington down the outside depth chart, and load up on pass rushers and interior OL in the draft.

In sum: it pains me as a Hurricane to say this but I don't think they'll bring Wilfork back. How they choose to proceed on Talib is much more precarious; it's a risk because they'll really need to nail their draft picks/FA acquisitions at a position where their ROR has been pretty mixed in recent years.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Healthy Talib is honestly the 3rd best CB in the league, behind Sherman/Revis. (One could argue haden/Peterson) Anyone we replace him with will be a downgrade.

Also, Dennard will become Ellis Hobbs as a #1 CB.

Option 1:

Talib
Dennard
McCourty
Gregory/Harmon

Option 2:

Dennard
Ryan/rookie
McCourty
Ward

I'd rather Option 1.

 

[Joker]

a very detailed opinion piece, Kontra...made me think about it. This could very easily happen depending on other circumstances like the offers Talib will get outside Foxboro.Wilfork is a total ? to me at this early stage.

 

[mayoclinic]

The Patriots need to get more athletic and aggressive at every level of the defense. I would think that much is clear after they didn't sniff Manning in the AFCCG and his receivers had no fear whatsoever of going over the middle. I'll start with Talib. Thus far, that trade has been great for us. He allowed McCourty to move back to safety and almost single handedly helped improve the pass defense. Unless your WR1 is an absolute burner ala DeSean Jackson or T.Y. Hilton, Talib is more than capable of taking him out of the game. That said, he's had constant injury issues with his hip throughout his career. He's missed time with the Bucs and the Pats two seasons in a row. In the biggest game of the season the last two years, the Pats couldn't count on him to stay on the field and his injuries in those games, along with a non-existant pass rush, have led to the team's demise.

Wilfork has been a consumate professional ever since the Pats drafted him. Since his rookie season, he has become the most dominant NT in all of football. He played the best game of his life down the stretch when we needed him to the most in the 2011 AFCCG against the Ravens and was bearing down on Eli in crunch time in Super Bowl XLVI until another spot on pass down the sideline to Manningham. He's been the anchor, the heart, and the leader of this defense. But he's also a very large man coming off of an Achilles tear on the wrong side of 30. On top of that, he has a large cap hit (I'm not going to mention the signing bonus because the team is responsible for that regardless of what happens).

With that said, I would let Talib walk and cut Wilfork after a lot of thought. Take the money that you're going to give to Talib and sign a guy like T.J. Ward. He'll bring a physical presence over the middle where slot receivers like Welker will no longer feel totally comfortable just taking a casual stroll between the numbers and converting short catches into longer gains against a softer-than-sponge-cake defense. If you're not a fan of Ward, the money could be used on a guy like Chandler or Pitta to upgrade the TE position while prospects like Deone Bucannon, Ed Reynolds, and Calvin Pryor are all available big hitter SS types in the draft. If you're looking for a corner, bigger and more physical corners that specialize in tight press coverage should be available in day two and beyond. As a Gator fan, I would recommend taking a look at Marcus Roberson or Louchez Purifoy (both guys over 6'), though Gilbert and Dennard are both intriguing prospects if you're willing to spend the draft capital on that position (which I'm not).

As for Wilfork, the DL as a whole one gapped a lot more from what I saw this season than any other season I can remember with Belichick as a head coach. I would bring back Kelly if for nothing more than a stop gap, hope Armstead can actually see the field, cut the hell out of Bequette, and target Tim Jernigan in the draft with my first round pick if he falls. Jernigan will be an excellent prospect as a one gapping DT in the 3 tech that actually had experience lining up at NT when FSU showed 3-4 looks. I'm also high on Louis Nix as a space eater who is dominant against the run and can get some push up the A gap against the pass, but I doubt he'll be available. A DT like Lindval Joseph is also available in FA and looks like he may command less than what we would be giving to Vince this year. I'm also high on Dominque Easley, a guy that was easily playing his way into a first round selection before he got injured this season against the Hurricanes. He should be available later on as well. I've given Murphy enough love on here already as well.

Any way you slice it, with the moves I just laid out, the team can get cap relief while getting more athletic at DT and DE, maintaining length and ability at CB, and becoming far more physical at the safety position. I love Wilfork and appreciate everything he's done for us, but I'm not the only one who has some serious doubts about his ability to come back and be even a percentage of what he once was. In the end, football is a business and you have to be in the business of winning to survive. Get the defense more athletic and aggressive while making a few moves on the offensive side of the ball and you're looking at a team that can potentially dominate it's conference on the way to another Lombardi trophy. Now fire away. I'm wearing my flak jacket today.

I think that cutting Wilfork is the obvious thing to do, as I've explained several times before.

I'd personally like Talib back if the price is right, and then draft a safety like Deone Bucannon in the 2nd round. But if Talib prices himself out of the equation I could see signing someone like TJ Ward instead, and then drafting a CB like Stanley Jean-Baptiste in the 2nd round. I tend to value continuity in the secondary. I'm also not clear whether Ward will actually make it to FA, as the franchise tag price for a safety is relatively reasonable.

Either way, I'd like to see the Pats sign either Ward or Alex Mack from Cleveland (similar price range) and a DT like Linval Joseph, plus Talib. That's a lot to achieve, but cutting Wilfork saves $7.5M in cap space, and depending on whether Mack or Ward is signed we can cut either Connolly or Gregory, saving another $2.5M+ in cap space. That should be enough to cover the 2014 cap hits of a DT like Joseph plus Mack/Ward, with probably a bit left over.

 

[RayClay]

High priced free agents is the way to go. Wow.

 

[All22PatsFan]

Siliga can replace Wilfork, but if the patriots let Talib Walk they would need to find a #1 corner. The corners could be Grimes, Verner,DRC.

 

[Kontradiction]

High priced free agents is the way to go. Wow.

You can always tell who doesn't have the attention span to read the longer posts. I gave other alternatives besides FA's. Try reading the entire post before responding next time.

 

[Observer]

I don't understand how you make a team stronger by eliminating its two best players without having a sure replacement plan. But I suppose anything is possible.

 

[All22PatsFan]

My Plan is (Overthecap- $4,683,946)
1. Cut Vince Wilfork- (Cap-$12,188,046)
2. Cut Sopoaga-(Cap-$14,193,046)
3. Cut Kelly-(Cap-$16,198,046)
4. June 1 cut Adrain Wilson(Cap-$17,275,380)
5. Extend McCourty 4 years with 10m signing bonus and move 2014 salary to 1m(Cap-18,195,380)
6. Extend Gostkowski 4 years with 5m signing bonus moving 2014 salary to 900k(Cap-19,195,380)
7.Sign Talib
8.Sign Michael Johnson
10 Sign Blount or Joique Bell
11. Sign Fletcher
12.Trade mallet for 33 pick
13. Draft as following G,WR ,DT, TE
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/01/2014-patriots-mock-draft-senior-bowl-edition.html

Wilfork is a great player, but with the emergence of Silver Siliga, it doesn't make sense to be paying a run stuffer 8m. Pats need pass rush MIchael Johnson can join Jones/Ninkovich and alternate at DE and have Jones play DT on third downs.

On the offensive side the Pats can move Connolly to center and play a first round Guard. At WR they can Play Dobson, Coleman and Amendola with Fiedorowicz
Depth chart:
QB: Brady, Aaron Murray
RB: Ridley, Blount, Vereen, Bolden
FB: Develin
X WR: Dobson, Thomkins, Harrison
Z WR: Brandon Coleman, Moe
Slot WR: Amendola, Boyce
TE: Gronk, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Gator Hoskins
LT: Solder
LG: Mankins, Kline
C: Connolly, Cave
RG: Zack Martin
RT: Volmer, Cannon
LE: Ninkovich, Buchanan, Bequette
DT: Siliga, Vellano
DT: DaQuan Jones, Armstead, Chris Jones
RE: Jones, Michael Johnson
WlB: Mayo,Christian Kirksey
MLB: Hightower, Beauharnus
SLB: Collins, Fletcher
CB: Talib, Green
CB: Dennard, Ryan
Slot CB:Arringron
FS: McCourty, Harmon
SS: Gregory, Wilson, Ebner

 

[RayClay]

Siliga can replace Wilfork

Wilfork might retire, but that statement is somewhere between a joke and a dream.

I guess you're thinking about the imaginary AFC championship where Siliga manhandled the Denver offensive line, collapsing the pocket over and over, causing Peyton to not be able to step up and getting sacked multiple times.

I understand on these message boards free agents that were cut multiple times go right past adequate and into Hall of Fame consideration if they play fairly well.

It's kind of like all our proven players suck if they have a bad game or injuries, while all other teams players are as perfect as a shiny new bike on Christmas morning and so worth paying long term at the absolute top earning level of their careers to replace our flawed human players.

 

[Froob]

I don't understand how you make a team stronger by eliminating its two best players without having a sure replacement plan. But I suppose anything is possible.

Who said anything about dumping Brady and Gronk?

 

[All22PatsFan]

Wilfork might retire, but that statement is somewhere between a joke and a dream.

I guess you're thinking about the imaginary AFC championship where Siliga manhandled the Denver offensive line, collapsing the pocket over and over, causing Peyton to not be able to step up and getting sacked multiple times.

I understand on these message boards free agents that were cut multiple times go right past adequate and into Hall of Fame consideration if they play fairly well.

It's kind of like all our proven players suck if they have a bad game or injuries, while all other teams players are as perfect as a shiny new bike on Christmas morning and so worth paying long term at the absolute top earning level of their careers to replace our flawed human players.

Wilfork doesn't pressure the QB, he never has done that, he is a run stopper, Siliga did manhandle Vasquez in the run game. proof? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52SQO9xX4YU

 

[Ivan]

I agree with much of this but when it comes to Wilfork I either want a restructure or for them to release him and then try to sign him to a new deal with conditions as the current one is untenable.

I would let Talib walk unless they can get him for a 4 million per deal, which is really unlikely. I still think he could have played that second half of that Bronco's game and was not happy that he didn't eve try to get back out on the field. He's a great cover corner when healthy but misses too much time imo.

I will throw up if TJ Ward becomes a Patriot, I hate the M*therf........!

I would be fine with them signing Byrd or Whitner as a safety and can see them releasing both Wilson and Gregory.

I agree on changing the defense to a faster more aggressive defense. i like the way the Seahawks focus on speed to the ball, gang tackling, and knocking the sh.t out of their opponents and want the Patriots to spend less time disguising coverages and more time just getting after opposing offenses. I want them to get faster at LB and bigger at DB and make teams pay for every play. I also agree that they need to go to 4-3 base with pass rushing DT's. Release Bequette, try to re-sign Kelly, and focus on defense in free agency.

 

[varjao]

Good topic.

My point with Wilfork is that the question is not only about money but about gameplan also, I no longer see him as indispensable since BB filled the gap in the run defense within 6 weeks with a lot of UDFA. It's not that simple but you only need some big guys in the middle and you're ok. Rushing and disrupting your opponent's OL on the other hand is not that easy, you need a stud and Wilfork is not able to do that, so I think you need to save the money and improve the position. Cutting him, is a win win situation, strategically speaking, emotions off. You get money and possibly upgrade.

You put his money on offense and use the draft to revamp the defense, or use his money on defense and draft OL and TE.

About Talib I want him to stay for the reasons already mentioned in this thread, but on the right price, I mean, CHEAP. You don't pay big money for a guy who has 80% of chances to play 10-12 games in a season and struggle in the cold January. I really don't want to see another rebuilding on the secondary since continuity is important, but I don't think lock good money on a guy injury prone would be smart, we already have Gronk. Maybe we will need to take the risk.

I'm all in for improving the lines, with our current DL you can have Revis and Sherman on the secondary and the outcome would be basically the same.

Talib is a question that we can discuss the whole off season and I will probably alternate between the 2 scenarios, Wilfork unfortunately needs to be cut, I don't even consider restructuring.

 

[Wax Frog]

I hesitate to pull the trigger in my own behind

That would hurt like hell

 

[Kontradiction]

I don't understand how you make a team stronger by eliminating its two best players without having a sure replacement plan. But I suppose anything is possible.

Eh? Not only did I give a couple of viable scenarios for replacement plans, I actually gave ways to replace them while changing the defense as a whole. Now, you may not like the ideas that I floated, and that's fine, but you can always try to come up with them on your own and add to the discussion.

 

[Kontradiction]

I agree with much of this but when it comes to Wilfork I either want a restructure or for them to release him and then try to sign him to a new deal with conditions as the current one is untenable.

I would let Talib walk unless they can get him for a 4 million per deal, which is really unlikely. I still think he could have played that second half of that Bronco's game and was not happy that he didn't eve try to get back out on the field. He's a great cover corner when healthy but misses too much time imo.

I will throw up if TJ Ward becomes a Patriot, I hate the M*therf........!

I would be fine with them signing Byrd or Whitner as a safety and can see them releasing both Wilson and Gregory.

I agree on changing the defense to a faster more aggressive defense. i like the way the Seahawks focus on speed to the ball, gang tackling, and knocking the sh.t out of their opponents and want the Patriots to spend less time disguising coverages and more time just getting after opposing offenses. I want them to get faster at LB and bigger at DB and make teams pay for every play. I also agree that they need to go to 4-3 base with pass rushing DT's. Release Bequette, try to re-sign Kelly, and focus on defense in free agency.

Wilfork, unfortunately, doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that would re-sign with the team on a lesser deal if he's cut outright. I would be fine with Whitner at safety, but Byrd should be the cream of the crop as far as safeties go and more than likely will price himself out of the Pats range.

 

[Big-T]

(using overthecap to get these numbers)

With carry over from this year there's ~$10m cap space.

So to get more cap room - there was a thread saying restructuring Mankins & Mayo saves $5m this year, so do that straight away.

Then we move onto potential cuts:
Vince Wilfork $8m
Dan Connolly $3m
Steve Gregory $2.85m
Isaac Sopoaga $2.5m
Tommy Kelly $2.15m

Cutting all of the above along with the Mankins & Mayo restructures and the starting cap room leaves $33.5m

Out of those I'd keep Kelly and probably Connolly which gives the Patriots $28.35m

Potential extensions to lower cap number:
Devin McCourty ($5m cap hit)
Stephen Gostkowski ($3.8m cap hit)

So you could realistically hit well over $30m in cap space - enough to sign players that will improve the roster from day 1.