Game Thoughts: Pats earn a Rocky Mountain Bye Week Edition

[shmessy]

Nail on head with TB12 and PTSD. I was thinking the exact same thing. He just didn't have it vs a great pass D. Oh well. Tom is human

Kudos to Tom for mistake free football, game mgt, not trying to do too much and letting the D control the game which they did.

This game was an example between the differences of being a great passer and being a winning quarterback.

I like that he can switch into Tom Brady 2001 mode anytime if the situation warrants it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I like that he can switch into Tom Brady 2001 mode anytime if the situation warrants it.

If Tom wants to play till 45, its games like yesterday that go a long way.

 

[shmessy]

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Brandon Stokley

✔@bstokley14


Thought #NFL fans would like this picture I took of a few old guys last night after the #Broncos #Patriots game.

#Legends#Greatness

 

[patfanken]

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Brandon Stokley

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Thought #NFL fans would like this picture I took of a few old guys last night after the #Broncos #Patriots game.

#Legends#Greatness

Our world's would be a lot easier to deal with and understand, if these 2 guys actually hated each other.

 

[ViperGTS]

Our world's would be a lot easier to deal with and understand, if these 2 guys actually hated each other.

Is TB holding a stuffed animal?

Anyways as we saw from Do Your Job the Pats have people breaking down potential playoff opponents. In that respect, is this year harder due to the sheer number of teams in and out it seems on a weekly basis?

 

[skinnydog]

I am sure other teams will try and look at the tape and see how they can slow down this offense. Did denver play press coverage all game long?

Good luck with that. Denvers secondary excellent and the pass rush is still top notch especially in Denver (Denvers rush wasn't bad, it's just that the Pats O-line was great). I doubt any other team can do what Denver can do or did against the Pats yesterday including Denver at Gillette.

 

[1960Pats]

I don't get how so many clever people here think that we played like we did because Brady struggled and don't see that we actually did everything according to game plan.

Also, I find it a bit curious that Brady started out 0/6 with tons of drops into the sun and once they switched side of the field (and the sun was gone in q3) didn't have the issues in the game anymore. I will give the GOAT the benefit of the doubt that the sun light had more effect on the first few series' than many want to acknowledge.

On the plus side, Denver's fumbled punt could have been sun related.

 

[1960Pats]

He (in)famously celebrated a tackle. Problem was that the tackled runner had fumbled and the ball was sitting virtually at Canty's feet and he never noticed it. IIRC, the offense recovered the ball.

That's the way I remember it too, but I don't remember what game it was.

 

[upstater1]

Exactly. He was definitely rushing throws and missing some open guys, particularly early. It's understandable given how he was brutalized last year.

Tom has been slow and inaccurate in cold weather games for several years now. He does well in snow weather, 30 degrees. But he does awfully in 15 degree weather.

 

[1960Pats]

Is TB holding a stuffed animal?

Anyways as we saw from Do Your Job the Pats have people breaking down potential playoff opponents. In that respect, is this year harder due to the sheer number of teams in and out it seems on a weekly basis?

There's really only one spot up for grabs in each conference. Five AFC teams (Bal, Mia, Den and Buf) and 4 NFC teams (TB, Was, Det and Minny) are each going for one remaining spot and most will be eliminated this week.

 

[deroc5050]

I think the Pats this week played conservative in the passing game, short routes to get open quicker to account for Denvers Pass rush. They didn't really have to open the play book and take chances down field because the Pats defense held Denver in check all game long. If the Patriots were trailing in the game I am sure they would have opened up the playbook for some chunk yardage gains.

It was very evident to me they were playing conservative on offense.

Denver was stacking the box for the run.. totally selling out and the Patriots surprisingly still elected to run the ball.

 

[Ivan]

I am sure other teams will try and look at the tape and see how they can slow down this offense. Did denver play press coverage all game long?

Every team does this every week. What the Patriots have shown all season is that you can take away anything you want and they have the options to adapt to it. To verify this all you have to do is look at their season and see who gets the credits at the end, it's spread across the offense.If their defense plays even reasonably well they can beat you with every aspect of offense there is, and that's despite losing the best TE in football. They can beat you big and they can beat you small, they can beat you fast they can beat you slow, they can lose any facet of their offense other than their QB and beat you in any kind of game they need to. As many good to great Patriot offenses as I have seen this era this is the most balanced, and in a way I think Brady is at his best with balance over binkies. You can never guarantee any Lombardi but this team has a great shot at #5.

 

[pdangle]

Tom has been slow and inaccurate in cold weather games for several years now. He does well in snow weather, 30 degrees. But he does awfully in 15 degree weather.

I've posted this before, but I think the light air @Den really affects his deep ball more than the cold. TB consistently overthrows receivers on deep balls (where the altitude would have the most pronounced effect), and maybe the ultra low humidity hurts his grip/accuracy other times. But even on short throws the low pressure will have an impact on speed and carry.

For a QB as precise as TB it probably worse than most. If your normally precise ball travels an extra 3% out of the blue on game day, it might start messing with your head. I think NE should show up @Den a day earlier and let TB get used to the altitude effect on his throws; it might make a difference.

He's had this happen (overthrows) pretty much every game @Den despite whatever the temp that day. And it seems the only stadium I've seen it happen more than once to make me think it might be something other than just bad luck. And the phenomenon I mention is real enough for studies and have a name (ref: Coors Field Effect) and shouldn't readily be discounted at least as a partial explanation for TB's accuracy woes at Mile High.

edit: The effect in Denver's altitude is a ball travels +7.5% further than sea level. Not 3%. A 50 yd pass by TB in Den will carry nearly 4.0 yards further than he expects. A decision honed by years of practice and thousands of throws, hard wired into his muscle memory and triggered in a split second to determine how to apply just the right throwing force. I'd imagine it would be tough to convince yourself and execute in the split second that you need to throw it a bit softer when all your instincts and years of training are screaming at you to grip it and rip it like you've trained to do. Hence, the only advice that I think would work, is to get up a day early (or even two days or more - but that's obviously not practical) and acclimate oneself to the effect. I guess they could stay closer, maybe take a field trip to Mt Washington, hike the mile above sea level, and have a quick practice there

I wonder if I can find opponent comp% for long passes in Den over the years to see if this effect is real across other teams and players. Edit: I cant find this data, if anyone finds it plz post...

 

[n6249c]

WOW. I hadn't heard that Thomas had thrown Siemian and Lynch under the bus like that.

probably got lost in the squabble between their offense and their defense in the postgame locker room.

 

[n6249c]

Every team does this every week. What the Patriots have shown all season is that you can take away anything you want and they have the options to adapt to it. To verify this all you have to do is look at their season and see who gets the credits at the end, it's spread across the offense.If their defense plays even reasonably well they can beat you with every aspect of offense there is, and that's despite losing the best TE in football. They can beat you big and they can beat you small, they can beat you fast they can beat you slow, they can lose any facet of their offense other than their QB and beat you in any kind of game they need to. As many good to great Patriot offenses as I have seen this era this is the most balanced, and in a way I think Brady is at his best with balance over binkies. You can never guarantee any Lombardi but this team has a great shot at #5.

First four weeks of the season show that they can lose the QB and still beat you. That's been so long ago it's forgotten now, but still is part of this season.

 

[Buchanty]

Also, I find it a bit curious that Brady started out 0/6 with tons of drops into the sun and once they switched side of the field (and the sun was gone in q3) didn't have the issues in the game anymore. I will give the GOAT the benefit of the doubt that the sun light had more effect on the first few series' than many want to acknowledge.

Your point is emphasized by the fact that Siemian threw his interception when facing into the sun. I couldn't wait until we changed field positions at the quarter.

It is much harder to determine depth of field when looking into the sun. I can never forget the 2010 playoff game against the Ravens where we chose to receive in the 2nd half and they chose the field with the sun behind them. Before that first quarter ended the ratbirds were already up 24 points and the game was to all intents and purposes over.

 

[supafly]

I've posted this before, but I think the light air @Den really affects his deep ball more than the cold. TB consistently overthrows receivers on deep balls (where the altitude would have the most pronounced effect), and maybe the ultra low humidity hurts his grip/accuracy other times. But even on short throws the low pressure will have an impact on speed and carry.

For a QB as precise as TB it probably worse than most. If your normally precise ball travels an extra 3% out of the blue on game day, it might start messing with your head. I think NE should show up @Den a day earlier and let TB get used to the altitude effect on his throws; it might make a difference.

He's had this happen (overthrows) pretty much every game @Den despite whatever the temp that day. And it seems the only stadium I've seen it happen more than once to make me think it might be something other than just bad luck. And the phenomenon I mention is real enough for studies and have a name (ref: Coors Field Effect) and shouldn't readily be discounted at least as a partial explanation for TB's accuracy woes at Mile High.

edit: The effect in Denver's altitude is a ball travels +7.5% further than sea level. Not 3%. A 50 yd pass by TB in Den will carry nearly 4.0 yards further than he expects. A decision honed by years of practice and thousands of throws, hard wired into his muscle memory and triggered in a split second to determine how to apply just the right throwing force. I'd imagine it would be tough to convince yourself and execute in the split second that you need to throw it a bit softer when all your instincts and years of training are screaming at you to grip it and rip it like you've trained to do. Hence, the only advice that I think would work, is to get up a day early (or even two days or more - but that's obviously not practical) and acclimate oneself to the effect. I guess they could stay closer, maybe take a field trip to Mt Washington, hike the mile above sea level, and have a quick practice there

I wonder if I can find opponent comp% for long passes in Den over the years to see if this effect is real across other teams and players. Edit: I cant find this data, if anyone finds it plz post...

I'm not nearly as smart as you are in matters relating to science, but I would definitely be interested in seeing some stats that either prove/disprove the theory suggested by @upstater1.

Tom has been slow and inaccurate in cold weather games for several years now. He does well in snow weather, 30 degrees. But he does awfully in 15 degree weather.

 

[luuked]

Tom has been slow and inaccurate in cold weather games for several years now. He does well in snow weather, 30 degrees. But he does awfully in 15 degree weather.

I dont remember him to be slow and inaccurate against the Ravens in the playoffs in 2014 or the Broncos at home in 2013 during the comeback at freezing temperatures.

Unless you mean it takes a while for him to get used to those conditions. As we started both games out pretty slow.

With how few truly cold weather games we get every year it's impossible to get enough samples to really say anything one way or the other.

 

[PScottman]

And it seems the only stadium I've seen it happen more than once to make me think it might be something other than just bad luck.

We'll get another chance to look at this in different context next year - Mexico City, I believe, is even higher altitude than Denver. Save this post and test your hypothesis!

 

[mgteich]

As folks have been saying for years, a good running game is the key to keeping Brady safe against good defenses.