Do you think there's just too much talent at WR for him to pull down more at the Packers? Or do you think they are content at his production for $7M? Maybe I've just become to accustomed to Patriots underpaying for overproduction. I agree he's young but he hasn't looked the same since '14 - he get's his games that he looks amazing but I feel like it's more other WR's drawing the coverage. I feel like he might be exposed if he's relied on as a WR1 or a JE level possession receiver.
Oh, hell no! Cobb isn't even close to being a WR1 or near Edelman's level!
To me, Edelman
is the Pats' de facto "WR1", as was Welker before him - with the caveat that Gronk also shares that role. The Pats' offensive system has simply been very different from traditional systems in what positions and roles it has featured and emphasized, so traditional valuations don't work (similar on defense WRT "pass rusher"), although it has evolved and adapted to the personnel available, to at least some degree. However, until Edelman and/or Gronk are "done", guys like Hogan, Mitchell and even Cooks, are all effectively the #3 guys. Cooks, however, appears to have the chops to move up a bit. Unless he can somehow take over Edelman's role, he's unlikely to be a "WR1" with the Pats in any traditional sense.
A lot of folks key in on Cobb's 2014 as his "breakout" and, like you, see it as a disappointment that he hasn't continued at that level of production. Really, though, that was just an anomalous year for a reliable 600-800-yard pass-catcher who's a good #3WR to have on the roster as part of the supporting cast for others like Nelson and Adams. His consistency is probably best demonstrated by the fact that, this season he's posted nearly identical numbers to last season even though it's been Hundley at QB for half the year instead of Rodgers.
IOW, he fits very well where he is, and I think the Packers will try to keep him. My projection of $7M APY for him is certainly doable for them (especially if they extend/restructure the aging Nelson (
their "slot guy"), because the Packers have generally managed their cap pretty well.
Cobb would also likely be a pretty decent #3 for 3-5 years elsewhere, and his price tag supported by the fact that, until the Pack acquired Trevor Davis a couple years ago, Cobb was their mainstay PR. He'd also likely be an asset (training wheels) for a young QB elsewhere.
However, it's possible that some team offers him a bit more than $7M and tries to squeeze him into a #2 role. That's the type of mistake that BB rarely makes. And I don't think he has done so with Cooks or will do so with Cooks' future.
