Bill Barnwell's five things the Patriots need to do to improve

[Uptown]

1. Not
2. Listen
3. To
4. Bill
5. Barnwell


Pats Improved.

 

[goheels22002]

Barnwell is not off base on the players he says should return, but he's wrong about dismissing the financial constraints.

Mason is worth his extension.

Cooks would be a good re-signing if he's willing to re-work his deal to fit with the receiving corps budget. I know nothing about the guy and how he sees his role on this team with the GOAT. In his first year he reminded me of Deion Branch and could be much better in 2018, especially if Edelman comes back.

Trey Flowers is probably gone. He's a solid, young player who will have a few teams interested in his LB, pass rushing and special teams versatility. But let's see what happens. Hightower explored the market and returned when he sized up what teams were in the running and his fit with the Patriots.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Cooks for $16M a year???

He may be slightly better than a healthy Chris Hogan. It’s close overall.

 

[maineman209]

I think we saw the defense deteriorate past that point in the Superbowl.

The front-7 began to deteriorate when it lost literally half of it's NFL experience to free agency, retirement and injury and was left with 2 rookies, 2 virtual rookies, and a 2nd-year player to account for nearly half the snaps.

 

[maineman209]

I'm still not sold entirely on Trey Flowers and I don't think at his current level of production he is worth 10 mill+. Those numbers are reserved for guys who consistently get sacks over the course of the season. However, Shaq Mason is an obvious re-sign to make soon, and 9 mill would be a relative bargain. Cooks for 16 mill is unnecessary - I would say that 12-13 mill is probably the best offer we would make.

Flowers is already a much more complete player on the edge than most young DEs. However, it's precisely because he hasn't put up gaudy sack stats (yet) that he probably wouldn't get offers of $10M+. Somewhere around $7.5M-$8M seems more likely. But that's for now. If he goes off into double-digit sacks in 2018, $10M+ might be his market.

Mason's APY, if he's extended early this season, might be held down to around $5M APY. Once he's UFA, that might go up into the $7M-$8M range.

For Cooks, $12M-$13M APY (which could actually lower his 2018 cap hit by $4M or so) might get traction with an extension offer this spring. After other UFA WR contracts and extensions are done, and after another year of Cooks producing in this offense, a $16M APY might be the required range to retain him.

 

[maineman209]

Injuries and good players becoming bigger injury risks is part of what a deteriorating core looks like.

It comes down to what we can do in FA, but I honestly think that if we go damn-the-torpedoes mode this coming year, it will be at the cost of future winning. Our core isn't decripit but it's getting older, if we don't move to get younger as a team the window might close no matter what Brady can do. It's a tight rope act and going straight for the gold is not always the right way to ensure that you win titles.

The backbone of the WR corps is getting old. Cooks, Dorsett and Mitchell all turn 25 this year. Everyone else will be 30 or older.

Cannon and Solder are about to turn 30. However, the interior OL is very young.

Allen and Gronk are more or less still in their prime. The RBs are all 26 or 27 - still in their prime.

On defense, Chung and McCourty are turning 31. Branch, Harris, and Harrison were ancient. However, the majority of the defensive snaps this season were covered by players who were 23 or 24 years old, especially in the front-7.

 

[maineman209]

Barnwell is not off base on the players he says should return, but he's wrong about dismissing the financial constraints.

Mason is worth his extension.

Cooks would be a good re-signing if he's willing to re-work his deal to fit with the receiving corps budget. I know nothing about the guy and how he sees his role on this team with the GOAT. In his first year he reminded me of Deion Branch and could be much better in 2018, especially if Edelman comes back.

Trey Flowers is probably gone. He's a solid, young player who will have a few teams interested in his LB, pass rushing and special teams versatility. But let's see what happens. Hightower explored the market and returned when he sized up what teams were in the running and his fit with the Patriots.

In 2017, Cooks produced 1122 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs in the regular season. It was his worst season statistically since his rookie year (when he only played in 10 games).

Branch's best season by far (his 4th with Brady) was 998 yards and 5 TDs.

 

[goheels22002]

In 2017, Cooks produced 1122 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs in the regular season. It was his worst season statistically since his rookie year (when he only played in 10 games).

Branch's best season by far (his 4th with Brady) was 998 yards and 5 TDs.

Interesting stats for comparison purposes. Very different teams, though, with Corey Dillon carrying the load in the running game. Branch was targeted 125 times and made 78 receptions compared with 114 and 65 for Cooks. Both had deep complementary receiving corps (Givens, Faulk, Troy Brown, Daniel Graham and Ben Watson with Branch.)

I think Cooks gets better in year two with Brady. But I don't think he's worth more than $5 to $6 million per year against the cap. I hope he stays, but fully understand if he leaves for significantly more money elsewhere. Amendola has reworked his deal to stay with the Patriots, I hope Cooks does the same.

 

[maineman209]

Interesting stats for comparison purposes. Very different teams, though, with Corey Dillon carrying the load in the running game. Branch was targeted 125 times and made 78 receptions compared with 114 and 65 for Cooks. Both had deep complementary receiving corps (Givens, Faulk, Troy Brown, Daniel Graham and Ben Watson with Branch.)

I think Cooks gets better in year two with Brady. But I don't think he's worth more than $5 to $6 million per year against the cap. I hope he stays, but fully understand if he leaves for significantly more money elsewhere. Amendola has reworked his deal to stay with the Patriots, I hope Cooks does the same.

Deion was also somewhat more an intermediate-range target than primarily a regular deep threat like Cooks. Not saying that Deion was never a deep threat, just that his routes were generally more various that Cooks' were this season. More well-rounded receiver, really.

There's no way that Cooks stays for $5M-$6M. At his age, with his production and durability, his absolute floor in 2019 is $13M APY. Both Davante Adams and Alshon Jeffery got that just recently for for less production.

Upcoming contracts for Watkins, Cooper and Robinson may well drive that number even higher. Extensions for Evans and OBJ may even top Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins.

Production-wise, Cooks has been really close to the stratospherically-compensated top class. At least that's how the (totally ****oo) NFL market is most likely to perceive him.

 

[supafly]

Deion was also somewhat more an intermediate-range target than primarily a regular deep threat like Cooks. Not saying that Deion was never a deep threat, just that his routes were generally more various that Cooks' were this season. More well-rounded receiver, really.

Yes, I expect Cooks to grow in this area and look forward to what another full offseason may produce. I would feel comfortable with an extension in the 12m dollar range, but I would certainly expect that number to jump with another big season.

 

[DarrylS]

Barnwell has accomplished his goal of creating controversy on the interweb, where success is measured by how many times your article is "clicked on" and how many times it is reposted...

It is all crap and speculation, not historical or current facts...

 

[maineman209]

Barnwell has accomplished his goal of creating controversy on the interweb, where success is measured by how many times your article is "clicked on" and how many times it is reposted...

It is all crap and speculation, not historical or current facts...

Well, just enough thin veneer of fact and history to make it all seem very reasonable to those with a superficial understanding of the situation and constraints.

OTOH, there's Volin, who recommends that the Pats cut Cooks this spring if he won't agree to a contract extension that reduces his $8.59M cap hit.

It's stunning to realize that this moron has any followers at all, but literally about 90% of the comments were congratulating Volin on a "great analysis."

 

[captain stone]

I would be very interested in listening to offers for Cookie, but I would never cut him outright. Worst-case result is that I would have to wait until the 2020 draft to receive the compensatory pick awarded me for watching him sign elsewhere.

 

[maineman209]

 

[captain stone]

Virgil Green, please.

 

[maineman209]

Virgil Green, please.

The speculation I was reading in relation to this was 3-year contracts in the neighborhood of $5M-$6M per year for guys like Fells and Green. Even Barnidge is reported to be getting nibbles now.

This is mainly because the supply of TEs coming out of college who actually know how to block has all but dried up over the past couple three years and this draft looks to be no improvement. The college game for TEs has changed that much, apparently.

Certainly nobody in media saw this coming, including the "draft gurus". That's what they get for automatically (lazily) classifying TEs who aren't good receivers as "blocking TEs" without actually determining whether or not these guys can block.

I'm pretty certain that those contract numbers have been "enhanced" bit to make a story, but the foundation - the relative recent scarcity of TEs who can block - seems to be prettyfairly accurate.

OTOH, if the speculation proves out, by the end of March, Allen at $5M and Bennett at $6.2M might look significantly more reasonable.

 

[maineman209]

Perhaps a reason for keeping/paying Solder ...

 

[doesntmatter1]

His numbers are far off but some of these guys need to be kept. I don't see how we can upgrade from Solder. At times he is elite. Pay him what he is worth. I have waited years to get receivers like Cook and Hogan. Not 16 but I would possibly overpay a little to keep Cooks. We don't have many 1,000 yard receivers and he did it while giving us what is considered a down year for him. It can only get better.

Mason is really good but I doubt we pay him. Outside of Mankins, who I never thought was worth it, we don't pay the interior line. We will have to draft another athletic Thuney type and hopefully while Scar is still around.

Trey is good but I doubt we break the bank for someone who struggles to crack 10 sacks.

 

[maineman209]

Trey is good but I doubt we break the bank for someone who struggles to crack 10 sacks.

The Pats didn't break the bank for Chandler Jones, in spite of his sack numbers. Maybe it doesn't have as much to do with sack numbers as people think.

 

[captain stone]

The Pats didn't break the bank for Chandler Jones, in spite of his sack numbers. Maybe it doesn't have as much to do with sack numbers as people think.

It also might have something to do with Chandler's decision to float right into the Foxborough police station. Bill wasn't going to break even a piggy bank for him at that point forward.