I've been trying to figure out what Welker is worth to the Pats and the rest the league. The franchise number would be $9M+. One or more posters have suggested 3 year/$24M.
I spent some time looking at who has cap space, who doesn't have bigger priority FAs of their own, and who has the need at WR. An additional consideration might be who thinks they can contend in the short term.
My conclusion is that (1) there are few other teams likely to have the cap room and desire to sign Welker and that (2) of those that do, Welker would most likely best fit with the Bengals. The Jags have room, few stud FAs of their own, and a need at WR. But I don't think they really expect to contend next year. Redskins are similarly situated. The Bengals have lots of cap space and limited FA issues of their own (Leon Hall being a notable exception). However, even the Bengals might not have too much interest. The West Coast Offense, as I understand it. does not particularly value the slot receiver. They already have one stud receiver and one promising TE. And one or more of these teams may look to draft a WR.
Additionally, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, DeWayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Brandon Lloyd, Reggie Wayne, Stevie Johnson, Robert Meachem, Laurent Robinson, among others, are FAs or RFAs, and there's a limited amount of total dollars available. (I'd say only Bowe is likely to be franchised.) So...
In short, I think Welker's value may be less than what some may be projecting. Personally, I would not franchise him. I'd offer him a 4 year/$25M deal, somewhat backloaded so we can cut him later, and let him walk if he turns it down. If so, sign Lloyd or Wayne for less, start Edelman in the slot, and draft a WR. Welker's a very good receiver, but I'm convinced he's NOT worth what his numbers suggest. What kind of numbers would he put up in Jacksonville or Washington with a bad qb? Garbage. Cincy or St. Louis with a mediocre QB? I still doubt he'd reach 1,000 yards. And with his age and injury history, what kind of production will you get in 2 years?
Please, tell me why I'm wrong.