Franchise tag could be coming for Wes Welker

[mgteich]

Of course, Cassell signed right away. $14M isn't bad money for a 7th rounder.

Mankins was not franchised. Cassel was franchised. He signed the tender pretty much right away.

 

[mgteich]

Mankins wasn't franchised?????????

Mankins was not franchised. Cassel was franchised. He signed the tender pretty much right away.

 

[Deus Irae]

Mankins wasn't franchised?????????

I thought you were referring to the uncapped season.....


The tag issue leading into the lockout season made pointing to it seem a little 'off'.

 

[conway]

I've been trying to figure out what Welker is worth to the Pats and the rest the league. The franchise number would be $9M+. One or more posters have suggested 3 year/$24M.

I spent some time looking at who has cap space, who doesn't have bigger priority FAs of their own, and who has the need at WR. An additional consideration might be who thinks they can contend in the short term.

My conclusion is that (1) there are few other teams likely to have the cap room and desire to sign Welker and that (2) of those that do, Welker would most likely best fit with the Bengals. The Jags have room, few stud FAs of their own, and a need at WR. But I don't think they really expect to contend next year. Redskins are similarly situated. The Bengals have lots of cap space and limited FA issues of their own (Leon Hall being a notable exception). However, even the Bengals might not have too much interest. The West Coast Offense, as I understand it. does not particularly value the slot receiver. They already have one stud receiver and one promising TE. And one or more of these teams may look to draft a WR.

Additionally, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, DeWayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Brandon Lloyd, Reggie Wayne, Stevie Johnson, Robert Meachem, Laurent Robinson, among others, are FAs or RFAs, and there's a limited amount of total dollars available. (I'd say only Bowe is likely to be franchised.) So...

In short, I think Welker's value may be less than what some may be projecting. Personally, I would not franchise him. I'd offer him a 4 year/$25M deal, somewhat backloaded so we can cut him later, and let him walk if he turns it down. If so, sign Lloyd or Wayne for less, start Edelman in the slot, and draft a WR. Welker's a very good receiver, but I'm convinced he's NOT worth what his numbers suggest. What kind of numbers would he put up in Jacksonville or Washington with a bad qb? Garbage. Cincy or St. Louis with a mediocre QB? I still doubt he'd reach 1,000 yards. And with his age and injury history, what kind of production will you get in 2 years?

Please, tell me why I'm wrong.

 

[Stilla]

Welker went out and played the best ball of his tenure. I hope he gets a big contract. He deserves it.

 

[MassPats38]

It could be coming in the absence of a long-term deal, but I expect he gets his long-term deal at a price lower than many anticipate.

Welker has seen the NFL, and knows that his results may not be duplicated elsewhere. He has likely spoken to Branch and knows that story well. From Super Bowl MVP to JAG receiver through a team change.

 

[mgteich]

Do you think that Branch has done poorly. Football is a business. Branch has done very well indeed.

Welker is one of the very best in the league. Someone will pay him well for a 3-year commitment.

It could be coming in the absence of a long-term deal, but I expect he gets his long-term deal at a price lower than many anticipate.

Welker has seen the NFL, and knows that his results may not be duplicated elsewhere. He has likely spoken to Branch and knows that story well. From Super Bowl MVP to JAG receiver through a team change.

 

[blackglass3]

Well, duh, of course he's gonna get tagged, but only if he doesn't get a long-term deal and there's no reason to think he won't.

The only way I can't see Wes back is if he feels he needs a change of scenery because of all the criticism over the drop.

Which, let's be honest, we can't blame him if he does feel that way. I get that drop was a huge one, but there were plenty of other chances to win the game.

 

[blackglass3]

Do you think that Branch has done poorly. Football is a business. Branch has done very well indeed.

Welker is one of the very best in the league. Someone will pay him well for a 3-year commitment.

I don't remember what he was demanding, what the Pats offered, or what he ended up getting in Seattle; but I get the feeling Branch would trade back a few million dollars for one or two more rings with NE.

 

[Boomer B]

I loves me some Wes Welker.

It will be interesting what Belichick does in this situation. Most fans and writers think the Pats need an outside WR who can stretch the field. If Bill goes after one, that WR would take away some of Wes's catches. Also, the more the season progressed Brady got more comfortable with Hernandez and Welker wasn't seeing the ball as much as he did in the 1st few months of the season. I also think as Brady ages we need to run the ball more which means less receptions. This leads me to believe that the days of 120 receptions for Wes are over. 85 - 95 receptions would be more realistic going forward.

How much do you pay a slot receiver who may not be as important to the offense as he was in the past? If the Pats do not go for an outside WR in free agency then resigning Welker is a must. I think we offer Welker $6 million per year plus incentives, which tops out at $7.5 million. I also think we make the same type of offer to S. Johnson. Bring Branch back at $1 mil per year as a backup, draft a big outside receiver, and we would be set.

 

[ATippett56]

Some players are special, Brady, Wilfork, and Mankins are examples, Welker is in the same class, he isn't going anywhere.

Mankins wasn't so special in the Super Bowl, once again.

 

[NEP4Life]

Obvious Welker is an excellent player, but comparing him to the elite receivers in the league, in terms of big play ability, there really is no comparison:

Player           # Games With Reception of 30+ Yards, 2011 Regular Season
Welker (NE)         6
Fitzgerald (ARI)   11 
Johnson (DET)      11

And big play ability is what commands top dollar at the receiver position. If Welker's camp is looking for that kind of money, I definitely see a franchise tag in his future.

 

[ATippett56]

Apparently a #3 WR isn't very important to you. While your main point is well taken (balance among receivers), I would think that a 3rd wide receiver would be the 6th or 7th target, sharing the 64 receptions with the running backs.

After all, with Josh back, we will see more 3 WR sets, although the 3rd wideout will often be Hernandez.

Also, using Vareen instead of Ridley is simply wishful thinking at this point.

It will be interesting what Belichick does in this situation. Most fans and writers think the Pats need an outside WR who can stretch the field. If Bill goes after one, that WR would take away some of Wes's catches.

Isn't a balanced offensive passing attack harder to defend?

Lloyd - 64 receptions
Welker - 64 receptions
Gronkowski - 64 receptions
Hernandez - 64 receptions
Vereen/Woodhead - 64 receptions

320 total receptions/480 passing attempts = 66.7% complete

480 passing attempts/16 game schedule = 30 attempts per game

Also, the more the season progressed Brady got more comfortable with Hernandez and Welker wasn't seeing the ball as much as he did in the 1st few months of the season. I also think as Brady ages we need to run the ball more which means less receptions. This leads me to believe that the days of 120 receptions for Wes are over. 85 - 95 receptions would be more realistic going forward.

How much do you pay a slot receiver who may not be as important to the offense as he was in the past? If the Pats do not go for an outside WR in free agency then resigning Welker is a must. I think we offer Welker $6 million per year plus incentives, which tops out at $7.5 million. I also think we make the same type of offer to S. Johnson. Bring Branch back at $1 mil per year as a backup, draft a big outside receiver, and we would be set.

The devil you know is better than the devil you don't. Ask Chad Ochostinko about integration into the New England Patriots offense?

 

[Boomer B]

Isn't a balanced offensive passing attack harder to defend?

Lloyd - 64 receptions
Welker - 64 receptions
Gronkowski - 64 receptions
Hernandez - 64 receptions
Vereen/Woodhead - 64 receptions

320 total receptions/480 passing attempts = 66.7% complete

480 passing attempts/16 game schedule = 30 attempts per game

The devil you know is better than the devil you don't. Ask Chad Ochostinko about integration into the New England Patriots offense?

That's what I was actually leading at with my post. Having an outside threat take some of Welkers catches is a good thing. My question though would be that if we do bring an outside WR in, is it wise to give Welker a huge contract? I think $6 mil per yr plus incentives is fair. If he wants more then $7mil then we should let him walk. Move Branch/Edelman to the slot, and bring in a a top outside WR.

 

[DonBlackmon55]

That's what I was actually leading at with my post. Having an outside threat take some of Welkers catches is a good thing. My question though would be that if we do bring an outside WR in, is it wise to give Welker a huge contract? I think $6 mil per yr plus incentives is fair. If he wants more then $7mil then we should let him walk. Move Branch/Edelman to the slot, and bring in a a top outside WR.

Welker at 9mill - not worh it
Welker at 7mill - worth it

3 deal deal.

 

[patsderoer]

Obvious Welker is an excellent player, but comparing him to the elite receivers in the league, in terms of big play ability, there really is no comparison:

Player           # Games With Reception of 30+ Yards, 2011 Regular Season
Welker (NE)         6
Fitzgerald (ARI)   11 
Johnson (DET)      11

And big play ability is what commands top dollar at the receiver position. If Welker's camp is looking for that kind of money, I definitely see a franchise tag in his future.

Yeah but Fitz and Megatron dont have Gronk and Hern on their team. The majority of the targets go to them.

In terms of total yardage, Wes gained more than Fitz, and it took a monster final game of the season for Megatron (when no one was playing defence in GB - DET) to overtake Wes in total yardage.

 

[Ring 6]

Obvious Welker is an excellent player, but comparing him to the elite receivers in the league, in terms of big play ability, there really is no comparison:

Player           # Games With Reception of 30+ Yards, 2011 Regular Season
Welker (NE)         6
Fitzgerald (ARI)   11 
Johnson (DET)      11

And big play ability is what commands top dollar at the receiver position. If Welker's camp is looking for that kind of money, I definitely see a franchise tag in his future.

Wes Welker had the 15th highest recieving yards in a season in NFL history.
Of the 14 that were better, only Marvin Harrison did it twice.
Welkers season was by yardage, the second best of the career of:
Jerry Rice
Randy Moss
Calvin Johnson
Andre Johnson
Micheal Irvin
Isaac Bruce

and a better year than any active NFL player other than Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson have ever had in their careers.
Big plays and fewer of them isnt better than more production unless your scale is getting on Sportscenter.

 

[Ring 6]

Welker at 9mill - not worh it
Welker at 7mill - worth it

3 deal deal.

Welker - worth it

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I loves me some Wes Welker.

It will be interesting what Belichick does in this situation. Most fans and writers think the Pats need an outside WR who can stretch the field. If Bill goes after one, that WR would take away some of Wes's catches. Also, the more the season progressed Brady got more comfortable with Hernandez and Welker wasn't seeing the ball as much as he did in the 1st few months of the season. I also think as Brady ages we need to run the ball more which means less receptions. This leads me to believe that the days of 120 receptions for Wes are over. 85 - 95 receptions would be more realistic going forward.

If you count only the 14 RS games both played, Welker had 49 catches in the first seven . . . and 50 in the last seven.

In any case, I think a deep threat would cut into every player's catch # a little bit, but he'd basically be replacing Branch's 50, so the loss would be pretty minor.

 

[MassPats38]

Do you think that Branch has done poorly. Football is a business. Branch has done very well indeed.

Welker is one of the very best in the league. Someone will pay him well for a 3-year commitment.

I don't think Branch has done poorly with the Pats at all on the field while working with Brady. My reference was to the shift to Seattle (I use the term JAG as average, not poor), after which he averaged about 44 receptions per year over 4 years. Branch was not exceptional in Seattle by any stretch of the imagination. And yes, he did get paid well, which has nothing to do with Branch's performance on the field or the subject of my post.

Branch did significantly better with the Pats in every season statistical category. The same is true of Welker. Football is a business, but players balance more lucrative contracts with the experience on a team and often turn down larger contracts for the opportunity to compete for a title. I am sure Welker will get larger offers if he hits free agency, but the issue is not simply about the money or every player in free agency would be sitting on a team like Washington or Oakland. That scenario typically ends with (1) losing and (2) diminished performance levels.

Nothing I said raised the moral "money or loyalty" debate. I was referring only to performance as a player, not performance of financial portfolios. Branch's time in Seattle was forgettable on the field. Few would debate that point in light of his numbers there.