Franchise tag could be coming for Wes Welker

[Patsgofor4]

It wouldnt shock if Edelman was gone next year.

Welker isnt going anywhere.

Edelman is one of their two most versatile players and gets paid peanuts...he isn't going anywhere.

 

[Deus Irae]

My scenario was basically an "if the Pats let Welker leave, what could they do?" scenario. I think that they should and will keep Welker. I would try to add Lloyd and/or Garçon, to take some pressure off on WW and Hernandez. It is clear that any team whose best deep threat is Slater needs to upgrade at that spot.

Garcon is a dropped pass waiting to happen, and we all know how much Brady loves non-core receivers who drop the ball.

 

[Dessalines]

Wasn't I?

I never said the situation is the same right now....

...however the Patriots won't over pay for someone. We both know that much (I'm assuming both having been fans for all of Belichick's tenure here). If Welker wants paying and a long term deal and the Patriots won't give that to him then we could find ourselves in a very tough situation, similar to that with Deion. The most we could do is tag him, and then we have a disgruntled player. I also never said we would let him walk.

The basis of the comparison is the Pats will not over pay to someone they don't think they have to...and I'm not 100% sold we have to over pay Welker. This could all be irrelevant as they could snap him up to a deal prior to free agency and they could agree terms. We just don't know.

The team could eat his tag for a year easily, but I bet you they rather wouldn't. As I said, my logic is perfectly fine...but I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. It's a scenario worth looking at.

FYI, don't look at my join date and where I live and assume how long I've been a fan I've watched every single Superbowl Brady and Belichick have participated in.......

Pay the man the money. Do it for everything he has done for this team. Welker is as important to the offense as Wilfork is to the defense. You are not a GM or an owner, you're a fan and you show precious little appreciation for the time you've spent with a happy grin on your face because a small man with great speed, agility, intellect and great receiving skills was on the team you support.

Pay the man the money, he has more than earned it. I believe that Robert Kraft will get that done.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Pay the man the money. Do it for everything he has done for this team. Welker is as important to the offense as Wilfork is to the defense. You are not a GM or an owner, you're a fan and you show precious little appreciation for the time you've spent with a happy grin on your face because a small man with great speed, agility, intellect and great receiving skills was on the team you support.

Pay the man the money, he has more than earned it. I believe that Robert Kraft will get that done.

I;'m sorry I didn't know I had to pipe up and hold down my opinions and be appreciative of what I've been given I'm one of the most defensive posters on any forum about the Pats (to the point a lot of people like to call me a homer).

I'll be writing about this for patsfans...and it will be up hopefully at the end of the weekend...so don't want to rant on too much about it and lose my mojo for a rant BUT, you're talking about tying up a massive amount of money for what...3 years?...in a WR the wrong side of 30, who most believe to be a product of the system, when you have to resign two top range TEs next season and have a lot of money already tied up in Brady, Mayo, Wilfork and Mankins.

I also think Brady will be done with the Patriots in no more than 3 years...should I pipe up about that because I'm a fan and it's not what he people want to hear? ;p

 

[Patsgofor4]

Garcon is a dropped pass waiting to happen, and we all know how much Brady loves non-core receivers who drop the ball].

Welker led the league in dropped passes in 2010 and Brady still thought that he was swell. Garçon is a 26 year-old athletic freak who came from a division 3 school. He just had the best year of his young career without his franchise QB throwing to him. He is not just a JAG. He can be a core receiver. He has dropped some big passes in prior years but wasnt in the top 25 in dropped passes in 2011.

 

[Deus Irae]

Garcon is a dropped pass waiting to happen, and we all know how much Brady loves non-core receivers who drop the ball].

Welker led the league in dropped passes in 2010 and Brady still thought that he was swell. Garçon is a 26 year-old athletic freak who came from a division 3 school. He just had the best year of his young career without his franchise QB throwing to him. He is not just a JAG. He can be a core receiver. He has dropped some big passes in prior years but wasnt in the top 25 in dropped passes in 2011.

1.) Welker is a core receiver. He is, in fact, THE core receiver

2.) Welker was coming back from ACL surgery in 2010

3.) Meanwhile, Chad Johnson was getting paid big bucks, but he ran a few bad routes and missed a couple of catches, and he was then ensconced firmly in the WR doghouse.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I;'m sorry I didn't know I had to pipe up and hold down my opinions and be appreciative of what I've been given I'm one of the most defensive posters on any forum about the Pats (to the point a lot of people like to call me a homer).

I'll be writing about this for patsfans...and it will be up hopefully at the end of the weekend...so don't want to rant on too much about it and lose my mojo for a rant BUT, you're talking about tying up a massive amount of money for what...3 years?...in a WR the wrong side of 30, who most believe to be a product of the system, when you have to resign two top range TEs next season and have a lot of money already tied up in Brady, Mayo, Wilfork and Mankins.

I also think Brady will be done with the Patriots in no more than 3 years...should I pipe up about that because I'm a fan and it's not what he people want to hear? ;p

Great, Ian is going to create us another monster...

There is a world of difference between being a perfect fit for a system and a product of it. They don't have to re-sign two TE's next season. The cap will be going up exponentially in 2014 when their deals are due. Brady will be here longer than 3 years barring catestrophic injury. As will Belichick, something Jonathan commented on just today. Kraft wants Brady, Belichick and Welker to finish their careers as Patriots, regardless of what the UK contingent thinks it knows. They learned a tough lesson about this offense when they let Branch and Givens both get away in 2006. It's not that easy to replace core receivers in this offense. And replacing them long term is even harder. Kind of like HOF QB's...

 

[zipster9]

1.) Welker is a core receiver. He is, in fact, THE core receiver

2.) Welker was coming back from ACL surgery in 2010

3.) Meanwhile, Chad Johnson was getting paid big bucks, but he ran a few bad routes and missed a couple of catches, and he was then ensconced firmly in the WR doghouse.

3-4yrs @ 7.5m/yr. 15-16 guaranteed?

If Welker wants $10+m/yr, forget it.. With that $$, you can get a #1 vertical threat...

 

[Ring 6]

No doubt, all Edelman has to do is catch another 110 passes or so and lead the league in yards and he'll replace Welker just fine. Shouldn't be much of a problem.

There have been 13 WRs in NFL history to put up more yards in a season than Welker did this year. Hell, there are 2 active players that once had a season with more yards than Welker had this year. Surely Edelman can be one of the 13 best WRs ever and put up a season no active player beside Andre and Calvin Johnson have, right?

 

[Deus Irae]

3-4yrs @ 7.5m/yr. 15-16 guaranteed?

If Welker wants $10+m/yr, forget it.. With that $$, you can get a #1 vertical threat...

I don't know what Welker's going to ask and, to be honest, I have no idea how the Patriots will value him. He's clearly one of the most valuable wide receivers in the NFL, and he deserves the money that comes with that. While I'm definitely in favor of signing a player like Lloyd, I'd take Welker over all but a scant handful of WRs in the game today, because I think his worth to Brady exceeds even his actual play, which is obviously top notch. Would I trade Welker away for Calvin Johnson? Hell, yes, and I'd help Wes pack. Would I trade Welker away for Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, or Brandon Lloyd? Hell, no.

On the other hand, he's a slot receiver, not an outside receiver, and the one thing that keeps being mentioned is the frequent drastic decline of slot guys who lose their quicks seemingly overnight. Welker's worth the $9.4 million that is the WR franchise tag, but that's today. What will the Patriots gamble about the future? I think that's where the rubber's going to meet the road, because I think that'll get more of a lookover than even most other Patriots deals do, especially with Wes already being 31 years old by the time the 2012 season starts.

 

[Onedaful]

Welker led the league in dropped passes in 2010 and Brady still thought that he was swell. Garçon is a 26 year-old athletic freak who came from a division 3 school. He just had the best year of his young career without his franchise QB throwing to him. He is not just a JAG. He can be a core receiver. He has dropped some big passes in prior years but wasnt in the top 25 in dropped passes in 2011.

Can I see your source for this? My statistics sources say that Garcon dropped more passes then Welker by 15.

Edit: For 2010 I have Welker at 86/123 and Garcon at 67/119. (Rec/Tgt)

 

[Patsgofor4]

Can I see your source for this? My statistics sources say that Garcon dropped more passes then Welker by 15.

Edit: For 2010 I have Welker at 86/123 and Garcon at 67/119. (Rec/Tgt)

Receptions per target and drops are two different stats.

Welker leads NFL in drops - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[Onedaful]

Receptions per target and drops are two different stats.

Welker leads NFL in drops - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Ah I see. You're right, I interpreted it wrongly. My mistake.

 

[Jlaff]

The thing about Edleman is the more time he spends here the better he'll get. I mean this guy used to be a QB and now he's playing safety in the NFL. I think he falls under this "gamer" category.

2 cents on Welker, 6mil ideal, 8mil is stretching it. And I'm sure he EARNS that for at least another 3 years. He is a tough football player.

Ocho will take vet minimum to be here..

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The thing about Edleman is the more time he spends here the better he'll get. I mean this guy used to be a QB and now he's playing safety in the NFL. I think he falls under this "gamer" category.

2 cents on Welker, 6mil ideal, 8mil is stretching it. And I'm sure he EARNS that for at least another 3 years. He is a tough football player.

Ocho will take vet minimum to be here..

3x$6M?

He's already earned all of that.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Somewhere between $7-9M+ lies the truth. He's not worth prototype #1 money because of the nature of his game. He's ultra productive but he's not a game changer so much as a chain mover (although he moves them less of late). Teams do still have to game plan around him and he completes roughly 70% of his targets wherever they may fall. If he or his agents want top 5 money (5/$50) they're dreamin due to size, skillset and age. If they want top ten money (5/$42) there is a deal to be made. He's worth $9M per to this team in 2012. Maybe that or a little less in 2012. Probably less again in 2014 and 2015. 4/$32M with half up front (but front loaded vs. all bonus) and $24M in the first 3 plus some makeable incentives totalling another $2-3M. And/or even some option language that gets him a 5th year if he's still producing at a higher than average/anticipated level and still on the roster in year 4. So really a 4/$32M deal that potentially can be either a 5/$40M or a 3/$24M/$3M in dead cap or worst case a 2/$20M with $6M in dead cap (split or not with a cap increasing by double digit millions come 2014).

The franchise tag or top 5 for WR this season is projected at $9.4M or so. The transition tag or top 10 is estimated at $8.4M or so. So a deal that pays him top 5 for 2 years and just under top 10 for up to 2-3 more years would seem to be a reasonable one. At the end of the day I don't see anyone paying him more than $16M up front or $20M guaranteed, but then again he's worth more to this team than he is to another. He is what he is and while that may not be prototype it's been wildly productive and it shouldn't be insulted with an offer much below top ten average. That average will be going up in 3-4 years to the point it may not be top 15 money by the time the deal ends and barring injury (which is the caveat in any players deal regardless of prototype or skillset) I'd be surprised if he isn't still in the top 15 production wise on this team with this QB come 2014.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The thing about Edleman is the more time he spends here the better he'll get. I mean this guy used to be a QB and now he's playing safety in the NFL. I think he falls under this "gamer" category.

2 cents on Welker, 6mil ideal, 8mil is stretching it. And I'm sure he EARNS that for at least another 3 years. He is a tough football player.

Ocho will take vet minimum to be here..

Ocho is less likely to be worth vet minimum (let alone a roster spot) here next season than Wes is to turn in an $8M+ season worth of production.

 

[Triumph]

Edelman is one of their two most versatile players and gets paid peanuts...he isn't going anywhere.

The Pats need to improve the WR corps. I dont see how bringing all the same guys back accomplishes that.

1 Branch on the cheap is worth bringing back.
2 Welker most definitely
3 New FA who can contribute in lieu of Stinko.
4 New FA or R who can return kicks and add something in the passing game.
5 Slater

 

[Triumph]

Edelman is one of their two most versatile players and gets paid peanuts...he isn't going anywhere.

I understand that, but 4 receptions for 34 yards in the receiving game?

Julian Edelman - New England Patriots - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

Remember in 04 when Branch was seriuosly hurt in AZ and was out for most of the season? Patten stepped in and the Pats didnt miss a beat winning the SB. Gronk goes out and there was nobody there to pick up the slack.

I just do not want to see a repeat of this season. Thats all.

 

[PatriotDynasty_12]

Franchise Welk, sign Royal and Lloyd and bring back Branch on a small contract. I just don't know if they should wait another year on deciding whether or not to pay him. But, I know he has been a team player, not made a big deal out of his contract, and has definitely earned himself a new, phat contract. As much as I LOVE Welk, I'm not sure if a big contract makes much sense right now on the business side of things and thats hard to say.

I figure Hernandez and Edelman could fill the Welker void and we could free up for money to offer to Williams, because I think we might be that defensive beast player away from winning the S.B. But, I really don't know. Welker has done a lot for this team and he is one of my favorite Patriots. I'm glad I don't have to make this decision.