Fourth-and-1 from the Pats’ 24-yard line

[HarkDawg]

Even this argument would be massively swayed by the fact that you have a six point lead. In a game where all is even then the Romer theory might have some merit, but not in a game where you have a six point lead.

you are too conservative. When you are up 6 points at home and immediately go 3 and out near/in your own red zone you immediately risk good field position for Atlanta (when considering the punt). Worst case scenario when going for it- (a failed conversion then they score immediately. In any event it would be the Pats ball in a quick fashion rather it be because of the successful conversion or because of an unsuccessful one and an Atlanta score.You definitely do not have "Bellichick Balls". Eagle Eye the movie was garbage btw.

 

[Satchboogie3]

1. Absolutely ridiculous. On our own 25, even if the opponent is as smart as yourself or letekro, they still have 3 points if they have massive brain farts, and still a good chance at a TD. Averaging out all the historical outcomes, the EV is still over 3 points for the opponent, if we fail on 4th down. If you want to bring up fumbles and turnovers on the opposing team, why do you ignore the similar chances our own offense would have in those events.

2. So now you're arguing that if we think we can convert over a 60% chance on 4th down, we should go for it even on our own 24 yard line? This is as funny as letekro's pseudo-science. I apologize to all for assuming Satchboogie had half a brain more than letekro, they're both useless.


I'm not categorically ruling out that going on 4th down on your own 24 is always a bad move. However, it's justified only if you can make a strong case that your defense and offense are already dominant, not to jump start those units.

I'm not supported the idea of going for it to "jump start" a unit, I'm only supporting it for the specific game conditions (ie, the offense was dominant and the Falcons Run defense almost non-exsistant). This seemed like the best possible situation to go for it on 4th and inches. Normally, I wouldn't suggest going for a 4th and inches on your own 25.

For the 3 point EV of the ball at the 25, I'm not suggesting the number should be lower, I'm simply saying that turnovers, sacks, penalties, missed FG, etc are the reason why it isn't higher. Just because a team is likely to score in the redzone doesn't mean it's automatic.

Now, please stop putting words in my mouth.

 

[Wolfpack]

you are too conservative. When you are up 6 points at home and immediately go 3 and out near/in your own red zone you immediately risk good field position for Atlanta (when considering the punt). Worst case scenario when going for it- (failed conversion then they score immediately. In any even it would be the pats ball in a quick fashion rather it be because of the successful conversion or because of an unsuccessful one and an Atlanta score.You definitely do not have "Bellichick Balls". Eagle Eye the movie was garbage btw.

Now THAT'S a statement we can ALL agree on

 

[maverick4]

When you are up 6 points at home and immediately go 3 and out near/in your own red zone you immediately risk good field position for Atlanta (when considering the punt). .

Regardless, you can look at data going back 3 years, 10 years, 30 years, on the chances an offense (us) have of scoring points from our own 25 yard line with a 1st down.... compared to the chances an opposing team has of scoring points from our own 25 yard line with a 1st down. The numbers aren't good. Belichick himself, or Ernie Adams his brain, don't try to defend his decision based on reason, so why are you?


I'm not completely ruling it out, but the only rational justification is if Belichick thought both the offense and defense were absolutely dominant. There is no justification if he thought he had to go for it to jump start some lackadaisical units.

 

[Kasmir]

It's extremely amusing that this CLOWN is still trying to sound like he has one clue about what he's talking about.

If you truly think based on your equation (kudos to you by the way that you can even spell the words correctly) that teams should go for it on 4th down at all times, even on your own 24 yard line, if you think you have a 55% success rate, it would be the height of hilarity if you ever became a head coach. You would easily surpass the 19-straight-losses Lions record.

One more attempt:

Do you understand that what I am saying is that it is precisely because your belief is so widely shared that coaches don't go for it as Belichick did?

If they go for it and succeed they get a small point advantage that helps them win games, but they get no credit from folks like you. If they go for it and fail, they may lose the game, but even worse they are subject to exactly the ridicule you are presently dispensing, which damages their reputation and could lead to loss of their jobs. It's not worth that risk for most coaches, especially when all the other coaches are making the same safe decision.

It's not surprising that only a coach as secure as Belichick would risk the ridicule to make what he believes is an unpopular winning decision. It's amusing to see that you cannot even accept that he might have thought he was right! How likely is that?

Please note that I am *not* ridiculing *you*. You are making an understandable Bayesian decision, which is what nearly everyone does by default in situations with incomplete information. Your experience tells you that Romer's analysis *must* be wrong because (almost) no coaches practice it. You may even be right. But your vociferous ridicule is uncalled for, if unsurprising, and in my opinion exactly explains why coaches appear to agree with you -- it's not worth the trouble of arguing with you because they cannot win.

 

[jbb9s]

Guys -

do you realize that if you use statistics as the absolute determinate in football strategy, AND you had a good offense that averaged more than 2.5 yards per play (not very uncommon), you would never kick an extra point all season

E(V) of 2 pt attempt > 1 pt.

 

[maverick4]

Do you understand that what I am saying is that it is precisely because your belief is so widely shared that coaches don't go for it as Belichick did?

I don't care if the standard norm is to go for it or not. I really don't.

You still haven't demonstrated with even a tiny sliver of evidence, why it's still a rational move. Belichick disagrees with you as well.

If you can demonstrate that before the 4th quarter, with the game decided by less than a TD, that it makes rational sense to go for it on 4th down on your own 25, then I will fully support you all over the media world. However, you haven't done that yet.

 

[HarkDawg]

Regardless, you can look at data going back 3 years, 10 years, 30 years, on the chances an offense (us) have of scoring points from our own 25 yard line with a 1st down.... compared to the chances an opposing team has of scoring points from our own 25 yard line with a 1st down. The numbers aren't good. Belichick himself, or Ernie Adams his brain, don't try to defend his decision based on reason, so why are you?


I'm not completely ruling it out, but the only rational justification is if Belichick thought both the offense and defense were absolutely dominant. There is no justification if he thought he had to go for it to jump start some lackadaisical units.

I don't care about friggen DATA from years ago. Does your "DATA" distinguish between Good Coaches and poor ones? How about High powered offenses w/ an Elite QB versus a running team with a **** QB? Your Data does not and cannot factor in these variables. Average turnovers per yardage etc. bs etc bs etc. does not matter!! It is merely a falsified number that does not exemplify how things usually occur with an extra-ordinary/ team with an iconic coach and an elite QB/reciever tandem in Brady/Moss. Numbers do not tell everything.

 

[Kasmir]

I don't care if the standard norm is to go for it or not. I really don't.

You still haven't demonstrated even a tiny sliver of evidence, why it's still a rational move. Belichick disagrees with you as well.

If you can demonstrate that before the 4th quarter, with the game decided by less than a TD, that it makes rational sense to go for it on 4th down on your own 25, then I will fully support you all over the media world. However, you haven't done that yet.

Since you amazingly believe that even Belichick will support your attack on his rationality, I think you're safely impervious to any further arguments from me.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Guys -

do you realize that if you use statistics as the absolute determinate in football strategy, AND you had a good offense that averaged more than 2.5 yards per play (not very uncommon), you would never kick an extra point all season

E(V) of 2 pt attempt > 1 pt.

Well, it isn't quite that simple . First off, it is a LOT harder to make a 2-point conversion than it would to get 2+ yards on a 2nd and 2 at the 50. The defense has a lot less field to cover and has more bodies to stop the run.

Second, a lot of teams probably rather not run more goal-line plays than necessary. There are only so many goal-line plays they have each week and adding and showing the defense and extra 2+ plays a game might not be somethign they want to do (ie, they want to save them for TD situations).

Now, I believe there is probably a basis to go for 2-point conversion a lot more often than most teams do, but there would need to be a lot more calculation, study, and stradegy.

 

[jbb9s]

Well, it isn't quite that simple . First off, it is a LOT harder to make a 2-point conversion than it would to get 2+ yards on a 2nd and 2 at the 50. The defense has a lot less field to cover and has more bodies to stop the run.

Second, a lot of teams probably rather not run more goal-line plays than necessary. There are only so many goal-line plays they have each week and adding and showing the defense and extra 2+ plays a game might not be somethign they want to do (ie, they want to save them for TD situations).

Now, I believe there is probably a basis to go for 2-point conversion a lot more often than most teams do, but there would need to be a lot more calculation, study, and stradegy.

You make some valid points. But at least give me this: If there is a bogus encroachment penalty on the extra point, instead of taking the 5 yards on the kick off, it would be better to take half the distance and run your goal line offense out there. This happens probably 3-5 times a Sunday on a full schedule day.

 

[maverick4]

Since you amazingly believe that even Belichick will support your attack on his rationality.

Not surprised you're resorting to desperate measures. You have no other leg to stand on.

Belichick himself, doesn't defend his 4th down decision on rational grounds.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Not surprised you're resorting to desperate measures. You have no other leg to stand on.

Belichick himself, doesn't defend his 4th down decision on rational grounds.

Well, I think it's possible that Belichick is just saying that to 1. Not have to explain himself for going for it and 2. Because he doesn't want more coaches going for it when they should.

I still think it was probably a good call given the way our offense was abusing their defense, but it was risky, not doubt. I just realize that so long as the reward out weighs the risk in the long run, you benifit. It doesn't matter how scary the risk may be, it's still a good risk to take. Again, I'm not saying that you should often go for 4th and inches at your own 24. Under the right conditions though (like, the best offense in the league having a great game) it is the right decision.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I don't think it was the correct call. I have a policy that decides it for me.
Risk/reward. Risk - You give the ball to other team 24yds from your goal line. And,
staring at a defecit. Reward. You still only have the ball at your own 25 with a long way to go towards putting points on the board. IE. Reward wasn't worth the risk. If we were losing by 6 and you feel the game is slipping away. That puts more in the reward column if you get it. But, all in all I feel it was a helluva risk. And, not necessary.

Thank god I'm not coaching the New England Patriots

 

[letekro]

Not surprised you're resorting to desperate measures. You have no other leg to stand on.

Belichick himself, doesn't defend his 4th down decision on rational grounds.

This is is quote from the press conference re: the decision:

Q: Can you talk about the thinking behind going for those short-yardage fourth-down tries?

BB: Well, the short yardage in our own end … I felt like we could get a yard. There would have been plenty of criticism if we didn't, but then we were able to get that and basically hold onto the ball.


I don't see anything about admitting his decision was irrational. All he says, apparently correctly, is that people like you would've criticized him. There are two things we know about BB: 1. He doesn't have a sentimental/irrational bone in his body. and 2. He doesn't care what people think about him. So....I don't know what else to tell you. We've beaten the horse you rode in on to death (how's that for a mixed metaphor!) and I'm going to sleep.

 

[jsull87]

I thought it was all but a no-brainer to go for that. At that point the defense was not looking too good, that drive seemed to motivate the well-rested defense. Great call by BB. Also credit to Galloway and his extra late surge that made the attempt possible.

what bull... a no brainer. anyone can say that after the fact and after it worked. it was a gutsy call that worked out for us

 

[jsull87]

I just realize that so long as the risk out weighs the reward in the long run, you benifit. It doesn't matter how scary the risk may be, it's still a good risk to take.

it's if the reward outweighs the risk that its a good decision not the other way around... wow

 

[Satchboogie3]

it's if the reward outweighs the risk that its a good decision not the other way around... wow

That's what I meant... typo.

 

[Joker]

The Patriots went for it on 4th down THREE times yesterday...made all three...won by SIXTEEN POINTS.

Cubicle Dweeb X 10 all claim "real bad!!!!!!!!" because,in all probability, they play FANTASY football and fail to recognize the difference between FANTASY and REALITY, and in all probability think because they lead their FANTASY league, this somehow qualifies them as EXPERT NFL ANALYSTS.

The Patriots beat a very solid team by SIXTEEN POINTS by MAKING CRUCIAL PLAYS when it mattered. The 4th and an inch was a CRUCIAL PLAY correctly called by one of the greatest coaches in NFL history.

 

[eagle eye]

We converted 3 out of 3 yesterday, but we 0 out of 3 coming into the game.