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Football Outsiders: Cassel v. JEST = THE best QB performance of 2008 so far

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ctpatsfan77, Nov 17, 2008.

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  1. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    I was expecting this.

    And, BTW, I'm not surprised at the worst, although knowledge of the rules is not a factor per se. :p
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2008
  2. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    hopefully he can play half as good the rest of the way. gotta go 4-2 at worst to make the playoffs. next 2 weeks should be telling
     
  3. sieglo

    sieglo In the Starting Line-Up

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    I think the Pats will need to do better than 4-2.
     
  4. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Inflamatory posts like this based on nothing but facts and statistical analysis will just launch another round of the our patsfans Hatfields vs. McCoys saga...how could you...:rofl:
     
  5. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I don't want to be a killjoy here, but aren't his passing numbers high because the Pats were in a pretty deep hole after the first half and they had no choice but to air it out?

    I'm pleased he was so succesful doing so (and maybe they should open up the offense a bit more and run the 2 minute more often - mix things up a bit) but I'd prefer NOT to have to watch the team try to come back after being down 24-6.

    Also, I think they may be glossing over his Red Zone stats with this DYAR stat. I could be mistaken but I don't think the team's been all that great in the Red Zone - and certainly wasn't in the first half against the Jets.

    The bottom line though is good - no question - I just think they've ignored a few key stats in this article.

    I'm not sure about this game, but overall, Cassel does best outside of the Red Zone - his completion percentage from the Patriots' 1- 50 yard line is around 75%... once he's in the Red Zone it drops to around 43%. Not that it's all his "fault" per se with the defensive scheme changing, as well as the fact that it looks like the OL doesn't block as well (keeping in mind I'm looking at an entire season, including games like the Dolphins when the OL was horrendous) - but he's averaging 1 sack every 10 plus attempts outside of the Red Zone, but 1 sack ever 7 plus attempts inside the Red Zone.

    How significant all this is, or out of the ordinary for QBs, I'm not sure, but I don;t think anyone would assert Cassel has a good record inside the Red Zone and I think that's a pretty important stat.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2008
  6. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    No, they're not ignoring it--Cassel threw three red zone TDs plus the two-point conversion (which I don't think is counted).

    Similarly, it takes into account the fact that not all yards are created equally--e.g., 1st-and-10 v. 3rd-and-10, or at your own 15 v. your opponent's 15.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2008
  7. upstater1

    upstater1 Pro Bowl Player

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    No way.

    Look at Baltimore and Miami's schedules. You honestly think those teams will only lose one more game?

    They are guaranteed to lose 2 each. Guaranteed.
     
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