Good luck the rest of the way... (plus thoughts on Ravens from a Pitt fan)

[lillloyd]

I'm making the rounds on different forums after my Steelers were bounced from the playoffs last night ....Just wanted to say good luck the rest of the way.

Also wanted to share some final thoughts on last night's game, and how it might relate to your upcoming tilt with the Ravens:

• Pitt just got beat, pure and simple. This would have been true regardless of whether Bell played or not, as this game was lost in the trenches.
• Pitt's young OL is vastly improved over previous years, and features a couple of Pro Bowl-caliber players in DeCastro and Pouncey....But in this game, they were absolutely steamrolled by the Ravens' front 7, and this was the deciding factor. It wasn't just all the sacks per se--it was how the pressure got into the head of Roethlisberger, who had to know from the opening snap that his line was struggling badly. Ben was never comfortable, and he consistently missed on throws he usually makes.
• Pitt also failed to get to Flacco with their pass rush, despite all the injuries to the Raven's OL. Very disappointing given the home game..but ultimately an accurate reflection of how we really don't have reliable edge rushers any more.

How will this translate to next Saturday's game?

The #1 takeaway from the game last night IMHO is just how good--and deep--Baltimore's front 7 is. Their defensive tackle rotation is monstrous, not just with Ngata (who was back and routinely walking Pouncey back into the pocket), but Brandon Williams, who has become a hell of a player in his own right, and simply abused DeCastro most of the night. Factor in that Timmy Jernigan didn't even play (and I expect he could be back for the Patriots game), and you realize just how beastly the interior of their DL can be. On the outside, everyone knows about Suggs and Dumervil, but they're deep there as well -- McPhee had 8 sacks this year and is an explosive guy in his own right. It's just a very talented, physical and deep group.

I don't know the Pats' OL that well, but the reality is most OLs will struggle to consistently contain Baltimore's front 7. As troubling as Suggs and Dumervil are as bookend pass rushers, I'd argue that it's the pressure up the middle --from Ngata, Williams and potentially Jernigan--that is most problematic, as pressure up the middle messes with a QB's head and footwork. If the Pats' OL can't hold up, Brady's going to have to really stand in there and deliver even while taking shots and having guys at his feet for 60 minutes.

As great and as tough as Brady is, I think this may lead to a lower offensive output than you're expecting; I would probably bet against you running away with this game by hanging a 40-burger (or even 30 for that matter) on BALT. Yes, the Ravens are vulnerable on the back end with all of their injured CBs...but no matter how great the QB and coach, if the OL is being blown back and the QB is constantly harassed, it's tough to consistently take advantage of that mismatch. Pitt has an explosive passing game and ostensibly a major advantage on BALT's DBs... but when the OL gets manhandled it doesn't matter.

One last note on the other side of the ball -- Joe Flacco gets a ton of homer-ish flak on our boards for being a lucky, heave-ho-and-wait-for-PI kind of QB. And to be fair there's a small bit of truth to this -- Flacco tends to make one or two questionable decisions a game (we dropped our INT chances last night, but I'd expect Browner and Revis to hang on to theirs . But the reality is, Flacco is a very good playoff QB -- he throws the best deep ball in the game (which means a lot of those PI's are deserved, since the ball is placed so well) and has been pretty unflappable in the playoffs. He has seven (!!!) road playoff wins since '08, which I believe is already an all-time record. I don't think he gets the credit he probably deserves.

That all said, I think you guys will still advance, for a couple of reasons:

• You have an elite 'pressure release valve' in Gronk -- if you complete just a few hot reads to your TE, you might slow their rush down. (We also have an elite 'pressure release' in Bell, and that was one area where we definitely missed him last night).
• I fully expect your defense to get home on pressure in ways we could not. Although it's not always safe to assume backups are worse than the starters ahead of them -- in this case, the Ravens' LT, Eugene Monroe, was really struggling prior to his injury, so I don't know that the dropoff to James Hurst is as dramatic as one might expect -- but the reality is that the Ravens are missing BOTH their starting tackles. If a 37 year-old James Harrison can give their LT fits, I fully expect your guys to do the same...with the benefit of vastly superior coverage on the back end.

So if I were a betting guy I'd take the Patriots in a 27-20 or 24-17 kind of game. Your offense may struggle more than you'd prefer, and it may be uncomfortable at times, but you should still survive and advance. Just my $.02.

Good luck the rest of the way, talk to you next year when Pitt goes to Foxoboro.

lillloyd

 

[Mike the Brit]

Thanks for your thoughts, lillloyd. Very classy and make a ton of sense. You watched the same game as I did!

But, if the Pats can't handle the Ravens front, they're not going to win the Big One. We're going to find out what they're made of on Sunday, that's for sure.

EDIT: Oops, Saturday!

 

[lillloyd]

Thanks for your thoughts, lillloyd. Very classy and make a ton of sense. You watched the same game as I did!

But, if the Pats can't handle the Ravens front, they're not going to win the Big One. We're going to find out what they're made of on Sunday, that's for sure.

Pats-Ravens should be a very interesting game. The Patriots handled some high-end front 7s well (DET), others not as well (NYJ, KC...although that KC game was early and that's just a tough place to play). BB is amazing at game plans and schemes, but it's tough to scheme your way out if you're getting beat at the point of attack...Still I definitely expect NE to win, I'm just not sure that I'd bet the Patriots to run away with it (I think the line is like 7.5 which seems high to me).

 

[Mike the Brit]

Any thoughts on the Ravens' running game, lillloyd?

 

[lillloyd]

Any thoughts on the Ravens' running game, lillloyd?

Again it's all about matchups -- they run a zone scheme which can be really effective with Forsett. If your defense plays the zone well --if your DL can slide laterally and keep their feet, and your LBs have good range--it's not an enormous issue. But they can definitely gash you as Forsett (who spent most of his career with the Texans, another zone-heavy scheme) is very good in this kind of attack. There had been talk that Forsett had been wearing down at the end of the year -- he's never been used in a lead capacity and is a relatively small back -- but as you saw last night he can obviously still be effective.

The Ravens have two of the best guards in the business (although Yanda I believe has been moved to RT with the injury to Wagner). When healthy their OL can really push the pile.

It's kind of a shame for Baltimore that they're so beat up -- they have 18 guys on Injured Reserve. With a healthy OL, a healthy Jimmy Smith (I think they have 5 CBs IR'd ?!), a healthy Dennis Pitta, etc they would be a much tougher out.

 

[Galeb]

The Pats will go as far as their OL takes them this year.

 

[mayoclinic]

The #1 takeaway from the game last night IMHO is just how good--and deep--Baltimore's front 7 is. Their defensive tackle rotation is monstrous, not just with Ngata (who was back and routinely walking Pouncey back into the pocket), but Brandon Williams, who has become a hell of a player in his own right, and simply abused DeCastro most of the night. Factor in that Timmy Jernigan didn't even play (and I expect he could be back for the Patriots game), and you realize just how beastly the interior of their DL can be. On the outside, everyone knows about Suggs and Dumervil, but they're deep there as well -- McPhee had 8 sacks this year and is an explosive guy in his own right. It's just a very talented, physical and deep group.

I don't know the Pats' OL that well, but the reality is most OLs will struggle to consistently contain Baltimore's front 7. As troubling as Suggs and Dumervil are as bookend pass rushers, I'd argue that it's the pressure up the middle --from Ngata, Williams and potentially Jernigan--that is most problematic, as pressure up the middle messes with a QB's head and footwork. If the Pats' OL can't hold up, Brady's going to have to really stand in there and deliver even while taking shots and having guys at his feet for 60 minutes.

This is very insightful analysis, and a good example of why the Ravens are back in the playoffs. Build a physical DL and front 7 with lots of rotation. Bring pressure from all directions, and especially up the middle. It's a very successful recipe when it works.

 

[dales804]

Nice write up. I was thinking PIT would've been able to go to Denver and win. I see the donkeys rolling to the AFCCG now.

Baltimore presents some issues for New England with their front 7 for sure. Hopefully Connelly, Stork and Wendell are ready for everything. If Ngata et al do what Knighton did last year to NE in Denver, it will be a very tough game. Not to mention the threat of Suggs and Dumerville. Probably going to see some up tempo, quick passing game from New England in this one. Have to keep Brady upright on Saturday. And, as you said, thank god we have Gronk.

 

[lillloyd]

The Pats will go as far as their OL takes them this year.

I don't know how Solder is doing this year health-wise (?), and obviously he'd get a tough assignment with Suggs, but IMO Dumervil is the bigger problem on the other side. Small frame, gets underneath taller RTs, very explosive. (But then again I think Vollmer has been great this year so maybe that's strength-on-strength).

The bigger question is your interior linemen. It's not just how 'good' they are, but their makeup and how they do in matchups against really physical DTs. For example, Pouncey and DeCastro are great, definitely high-end interior offensive linemen...but they're more 'athletic' than 'road grader', and they can get mauled by the Haloti Ngatas and Brandon Williams of the world.

I don't know much about Stork or Wendell (although it seems that Connolly has had a very good year just based on posts on this board?)...but to me *that* is where the LOS battle will be won or lost. Baltimore has some monster DTs -- they're three deep there if Jernigan plays -- and I don't care how good the QB, pressure up the middle is hugely disruptive to just about anyone.

 

[Double TE]

A solid running game can slow down a pass rush or NE can just go quick read run and shoot?

 

[lillloyd]

A solid running game can slow down a pass rush or NE can just go quick read run and shoot?

Very tough to run on Baltimore for all of the reasons above.

You guys might have better success running no-huddle than we did (we have a lot of young WRs that limited what we could do in that attack). I would think WR bubble screens would be effective (Collinsworth said something last night to the effect that Suggs had figured out some sort of 'tell' when we ran those plays, which might explain why we didn't run them much).

Of course, getting Gronk loose on a short hot read (one where he just rumbles through the secondary for 30 yards) would do a lot to slow them down

 

[shmessy]

It's kind of a shame for Baltimore that they're so beat up -- they have 18 guys on Injured Reserve. With a healthy OL, a healthy Jimmy Smith (I think they have 5 CBs IR'd ?!), a healthy Dennis Pitta, etc they would be a much tougher out.

No sympathy. We've played that role in the past.

BTW, great stuff today, Lloyd - - much appreciated.

 

[patfanken]

Nice effort again, Llyodd. Just a few comments. No question about the Pressure the Ravens' front seven can bring as being their best chance to win this week. However I think you may overstate it. I think the 3 sacks in the first period tainted your view a bit. It did the same for some of our fans when a similar thing happened in the Jets game.. Sometimes it takes a bit of time to get a grip on a team that's doing a lot of creative and aggressive blitzing.

Don't forget that the Steelers DID end up passing for over 350 yds and a 70% completion rate on that same front 7. Having to overcome a 114-14 penalty yd deficit, had a great deal to do with how the Ravens kept your offense off the board (as well as a 3-0 turn over ratio) Probably the key area you lost without Bell was in pass protection. A couple of those early sacks were on the RB's (though they improved as the game went along and they got familiar with what they were doing)

Don't get too colored by what you see in your own division. We ***** and moan about our OL ALL the time. But its world's ahead of where your's is right now. They have already faced some of the better DL's in the league (Buffalo, Lions, Denver) and have protected Brady more than adequately. Also the Pats employ a much different style of offense and Brady consistently gets rid of the ball much quicker than Ben.

If you look at what the Steelers did well last night you might start to get a different picture. Heath Miller is a solid TE, but he's no Gronk and he had 80 yds last night. (and he;s not the only TE who's had success against the Ratbirds) Your slapped together conglomeration of a secondary held Flacco to a very pedestrian 250 yds of passing. Were it not for some PI's and a few timely long passes that offense would have stagnated. The secondary Flacco will be throwing against will be radically better.

The Ravens have won just 2 games this season against teams with winning record, both against the Steelers. the Pats won 7.....so far. Like most bullies, the Ravens like to beat up on the "little kids" and that's where they accumulated most of their best stats. No doubt I'm sure they will coming into Foxboro full of that obnoxious swagger, but the Pats AREN'T the "little kids", Lloyd, and when the they get punched back, they aren't going to like it.

No, the Pats got the team they wanted for this game. Its just the mediots and national fan base don't know it yet. The beauty of it all is that during the run up to the game, the Pats are going to play along with the myth. Believe me, Lloyd, if the Pats lose this game, they didn't deserve to be in the playoffs in the first place.

 

[Double TE]

Game was a pick em at half time. I am worried about their D. But our D is very good too.

I d run Blount at Suggs early and see how he responds.

 

[RayClay]

Fortunately, Brady is more mobile than Roethlisberger. So is Wilfork, for that matter. You guys have a training camp?

 

[lillloyd]

Fortunately, Brady is more mobile than Roethlisberger. So is Wilfork, for that matter. You guys have a training camp?

LOL.

They need to run a forty-yard dash with Brady, Roethlisberger and Peyton on one side and Wilfork and that 390-pounder who scored the touchdown for Baylor on the other.

How many full seconds does the Baylor guy win by?!

 

[RayClay]

LOL.

They need to run a forty-yard dash with Brady, Roethlisberger and Peyton on one side and Wilfork and that 390-pounder who scored the touchdown for Baylor on the other.

How many full seconds does the Baylor guy win by?!

I don't really care about anybody's weight, but the defense left the whole middle of the field open once and I think a normal runner might have scored a touchdown. Big Ben looked like a baby hippo, uncertainly waddling toward the water hole.

Not good for a guy who formerly used to buy lots of time with his tough running, staying alive. Let's face it, he's never been a classic passer.

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

Excellent and accurate input.

I can't imagine the Pats will be able to run effectively against the Ravens D so, if the Pats OL can't cope with the Ravens front 7 in pass pro, then I suspect it will be a long day for the Pats offense.

I do like the Pats D going up against the Ravens O however. Just gotta keep Flacco from completing those long bomb type plays.

This game has a 13-10 type feel to it to me.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I think losing Bell had more of an effect then you make it out to be. Like collinsworth said..some of those runs and catches out of the backfield..tate makes a 2 yard run while Bell would have had 6 or 7. Losing him i thought at the beginning of the week gave you guys really no shot (sorry)!

I mean Bell was what...like 20% of your O this year...maybe more? For a middle of the road team...it's really hard to overcome that

 

[lillloyd]

Don't forget that the Steelers DID end up passing for over 350 yds and a 70% completion rate on that same front 7. Having to overcome a 114-14 penalty yd deficit, had a great deal to do with how the Ravens kept your offense off the board (as well as a 3-0 turn over ratio) Probably the key area you lost without Bell was in pass protection. A couple of those early sacks were on the RB's (though they improved as the game went along and they got familiar with what they were doing)

I agree to some extent -- but some of those yards were more or less garbage yards at the end with the outcome largely decided. And more to the point, Ben simply was never comfortable-- he sprayed throws he normally makes. That's a credit to Baltimore.

Agree 100% on the loss of Bell in pass pro BTW. Never more evident on the tipped ball that Suggs intercepted -- not only did Tate completely blow his blocking assignment (he doubled the outside guy and let the blitzer come free), but after Roethlisberger Houdini'd his way out of it, Tate let the ball clang off his hands to Suggs. Not an easy catch but one Bell routinely snares (and often runs 30 yards downfield with).

Don't get too colored by what you see in your own division. We ***** and moan about our OL ALL the time. But its world's ahead of where your's is right now. They have already faced some of the better DL's in the league (Buffalo, Lions, Denver) and have protected Brady more than adequately. Also the Pats employ a much different style of offense and Brady consistently gets rid of the ball much quicker than Ben.

Agree to disagree on some of these points. I don't know the Pats' offensive line but I don't agree that they're 'worlds better'. Pitt has a couple of Pro Bowl caliber guys in Pouncey and DeCastro (and surprisingly one of the best-rated LTs in Beachum, per PFF). It's a young unit that struggles sometimes on stunts, and it doesn't match up extremely well with large, physical fronts. But it's light years removed from the disastrous OLs we trotted out from '08 to '12. I believe we have a pretty good OL...we just got manhandled last night by a better unit.

Re/ Roethlisberger, it's a common misconception that Ben still runs around all the time extending plays. Most of his plays are from the pocket now. (There are stats to back this up -- PFF tracks this, and Roethlisberger's time to throw was 2.50 seconds over the year -- 6th lowest in the league. FWIW Brady was 2.40 and 2nd in the league. A product of Haley's system, finally paying dividends.)

If you look at what the Steelers did well last night you might start to get a different picture. Heath Miller is a solid TE, but he's no Gronk and he had 80 yds last night. (and he;s not the only TE who's had success against the Ratbirds) Your slapped together conglomeration of a secondary held Flacco to a very pedestrian 250 yds of passing. Were it not for some PI's and a few timely long passes that offense would have stagnated. The secondary Flacco will be throwing against will be radically better.

Couldn't agree more. Why I think you guys will send Baltimore packing Saturday. Although as I said in the earlier post, I think Flacco is unfairly caricatured as a guy who just wings it up and hopes for pass interference calls, when in truth he's an extremely accurate deep ball thrower who plays very well on the road in the playoffs--an uncommon trait.

The Ravens have won just 2 games this season against teams with winning record, both against the Steelers. the Pats won 7.....so far. Like most bullies, the Ravens like to beat up on the "little kids" and that's where they accumulated most of their best stats. No doubt I'm sure they will coming into Foxboro full of that obnoxious swagger, but the Pats AREN'T the "little kids", Lloyd, and when the they get punched back, they aren't going to like it.

Again, I think the Pats will win, for all the reasons stated in the initial post.

The Steelers were 6-1 against teams with winning records this year FWIW. Baltimore came in and beat them soundly. The point being, while I think regular season records *can* be useful when discussing playoff games, it's much more useful to discuss the specific unit matchups between theteams.... I think Baltimore's front 7 presents real problems (not just to NE but anyone without a seriously mobile QB!) But in the end I think NE's matchup advantages in other areas will win the game for them.

Good luck Saturday!