Football Outsiders: New England Offense on record pace

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Kasmir, Nov 30, 2010.

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  1. Kasmir

    Kasmir Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    #75 Jersey

    The Week 12 stats are out from FO. Patriots are number #2 in total team DVOA to Pit, but the offense DVOA has now equaled that of the previous best team in their database, the 2007 Patriots:

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 12 DVOA Ratings

    Brady is leading the league in both DYAR and DVOA by a wide margin now:

    Quite a contrast to Pro Football Focus, which doesn't even list Brady as a top 10 QB...

    In the RB ratings, Benny continues to be #3 in both DYAR and DVOA, and is #1 in success rate. Woodhead leads the league in RB receiving DVOA, and would be lead in running DVOA as well if he had 22 more carries. As it is, Woodhead is #9 in the league in DYAR despite not having enough carries to qualify, and would appear to be #4 or #5 back in the league in combined DYAR.

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

    Gronkowski is now #2 in DYAR and #4 in DVOA, and Hernandez is #4 in DYAR and #10 in DVOA. Incredible production and efficiency from the TE's for New England this year:
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2010
  2. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? Supporter

    No Jersey Selected

  3. TheGreatestEVER

    TheGreatestEVER Practice Squad Player

    Dominant like the 2007 Offense, lets hope it doesn't end like the 2007 Superbowl, idiot refs and fluke plays
  4. asfpnepRefugee

    asfpnepRefugee Practice Squad Player

    I like these Football Outsider guys. They're always telling me that the Pats are the greatest :)
  5. Rob0729

    Rob0729 Supporter Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    Just even more proof that their stats are bogus. I hate when people use their statistically rankings to prove anything. They are clearly a joke. I check out their site because they can have a good nugget or two, but their own stats are crap.
  6. Kasmir

    Kasmir Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    #75 Jersey

    I had a little dialogue with those guys about Brady here:

    Re-Focused: Week 12, Patriots at Lions |

    They basically are claiming that Brady is a system QB making easy throws. That raises the obvious question about why don't the 24+ other teams in the league with much worse offenses pick up their own "system QB", to which they mumble something about how great the Patriots' system is. "All hail Belichick", I guess -- not that they have a stat for that.
  7. Haley

    Haley In the Starting Line-Up

    No Jersey Selected

    I'm not sure I'm down with ranking BJGE over all these other RBs (Peterson, Rice, etc) but maybe I'm just not used to seeing media fanning any of our players.
  8. Kasmir

    Kasmir Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    #75 Jersey

    Peterson is just behind BJGE in their system. And to be fair, the Pats now have the top run blocking OL in their system:

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 OFFENSIVE LINES

    Minnesota is 12th. They make no claims to be able to separate RB performance from OLINE performance, so it' seasy to imagine that Peterson would be incredible running in the NE offense and BJGE would struggle with Minnesota...
  9. Rob0729

    Rob0729 Supporter Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    The whole system QB argument is so friggin weak. I agree that if Brady was just a system QB, there would be half the league with that system. The fact that they think that just shows how idiotic it is that the people running their analysis are.
  10. TB=TD

    TB=TD Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Is Brady the greatest system QB of all time?
  11. ALP

    ALP Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

  12. Oswlek

    Oswlek Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    They left a door open that you should consider entering. Many "easy" throws are only easy because the QB was able to look off the safety and/or made a great read. Brady made a throw to Welker this past week that is a perfect example. Welker was running along the right sideline and the CB had perfect inside position. The deep route was covered as was the incut, and the sideline stopped cutting outside, of course.

    So, what did Brady do? He tossed the ball behind Welker. If you only watch the end of the play, it looks like Welker was wide open, but it was a great throw that made it so. I think Simms even said something along the lines of "QBs throw the receiver open".

    The long and short of it is, their system devalues the mental aspects, arguably the biggest piece of the puzzle.
  13. WinstonSmith

    WinstonSmith On the Game Day Roster

    Agreed, they did a poor job in describing their secrete sauce or their sauce is crap. Decision making is a huge part of the position, and it’s discounted by their grading method. This style of grading is better suited for non skill position players.
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2010
  14. Kasmir

    Kasmir Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    #75 Jersey

    You could say that Orton and Cassel's success this year are successful experiments at copying the Patriots' system with different QBs. Both are actually doing fairly well according to FO -- Orton is #2 in DYAR and #5 in DVOA, and Cassell is #11/#12 (and improving).

    But arguments about system vs player apply to every QB in every system, and its really hard to isolate system cause from special (player) cause without doing careful quantitative analysis. The PFF guys are asserting that they are doing that, but don't do anything quantitative to make their case. The rating judgments they are making are enormously subjective, and just a predisposition to believe that Brady is system QB could bias their ratings sufficiently to get that result: the "Russian judge" problem plagues all "style points" based system.

    FO's system, by marked contrast, is apparently based entirely on objective measurable criteria: did you get the first down, etc. You can argue the weighting of the criteria -- they mention they perhaps underweight long plays in their system -- but you don't need to worry that someone is scoring down a player because they don't like their style.

    One of the reasons I persist with PFF, is that for non-skill positions, it's very difficult to score performance objectively, so I've been assuming that PFF's style-points-based approach is better than nothing. But if when calibrating it against other systems for skilled-position players it generates nonsense, perhaps abandonment is in order after all...
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2010
  15. WelshPat

    WelshPat Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Is it the same DVOA that on pro football reference says that Drew Bledsoe is a better QB than Tom Brady and Troy Aikman?

    Does any NFL team use DVOA? I just don't get why people like it so much, i never go on those websites because as someone posted, one site lists them as the best ever and one doesn't have Brady in the top 10. Just goes to show how you can manipulate stats to prove any point you want to make.
  16. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

    ProFootballFocus is a site where people who know no more about football than you or I sit down and subjectively review TV copies of the game and try to make conclusions from it, and submit it to a site where their amateur analysis is disguised as "expert". It might be the biggest rip-off out there now that it is a pay-site.

    It's a joke. The site isn't even worth referencing.
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2010
  17. Kasmir

    Kasmir Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    #75 Jersey

    No. Pro Football Reference is entirely distinct from Football Outsiders. Their "AV" ("Approximate Value") is in no way related to FO's "DVOA" (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) other than both containing an "A" and a "V".
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2010
  18. sbpatfan

    sbpatfan Banned

    You see, when you take the double integral of (X^4 / exp(y))^xy from attempts to completions and interceptions to touchdowns, you'll get a number that we call QORACSA. Or, "Quarterback Overall Rating Adjusted for Complete Statistical Analysis." Upon crunching the numbers we found the best QBs in the league came down to a three way tie between Brett Farve, Antwaan Randle El, and Ja'Walrus Russel. Considering all factors, Brett Farve is actually on pace for his best season yet. The scary thing is our DOMGO schedule formula actually predicts Farve has a solid chance to surpass his current output and put up one of the most legendary seasons known to man.

    - Pro Stat Whatever
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2010
  19. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa Supporter Supporter

    No, you have to still call Joe Montana the greatest system QB of all time... but another ring or two and Tommy's right there :D
  20. DaedalusX

    DaedalusX On the Game Day Roster

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