First Things First - Extend Samuel

[biffman]

This is at least the 2nd time I have seen you post this thought.

My hypothesis: You sir have gotten silly. too many trips to the dentist or something.

there is no value added in keeping a deal a secret. If they are going to draft a cb; whether or not they have a deal in place with Samuel will not change that decision.

There is value in getting deal done; i.e. right now he is not coming into training camps or practices or workouts.

The deal is not announced because the deal is not done.

Hypothetical Scenario:

Let’s assume the Pats sign Samuel long term and announce it prior to the draft.

Team A is drafting with the 27th pick of the first round. The Patriots have the 24th pick. Team A knows the Patriots want to draft a mlb or cb, but with Samuel signed, it would now definitely be a mlb. Pick 23 arrives and there are two blue chip prospects on the board - a MLB and a CB. The team picking at 23 needs a WR and there are several good ones left on the board. Since the Patriots are picking next Team A knows that it must move up to 23 to grab the MLB, which it does. The Patriots lose out on the MLB because other teams know they won’t draft the CB.

In order to prevent this type of scenario, they withhold announcing the Samuel deal until after the draft. It’s certainly plausible.

DISCLAIMER 1: I’m not saying Samuel is or isn’t signed, only that keeping the signing secret until after the draft could be beneficial.

DISCLAIMER 2: I know this scenario is fairly simplistic and things aren’t usually this black and white; i.e., teams won’t know exactly who the Patriots have targeted. However, it is certainly not out of the question that the Patriots can imagine a scenario where keeping the signing secret would help them.

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

There is plenty of difference. There is NO assumption that Samuel is playing for the Pats in 2007 because there is no deal announced. Other GMs have probably been contacted to see the potential for a trading partner, as well. That sends the signals that Asante may NOT be with the Pats. And it gets teams thinking that the Pats will be looking at a CB in round 1.

Just because a player is franchised, it doesn't mean he is part of the team. He is still free agent and can sign with other teams.

Look at it from a draft strategy standpoint. If the Pats want to draft a CB in the 1st round and the person they want is sitting there at 17, but its likely that the Teams at 18, 19, or 20 will take the guy. The Pats would want to move up. If its KNOWN they are probably moving up for a CB, the price for the trade will be significantly higher and its less likely that a deal gets done. In fact, there's a good chance that the team at 17 can get another bid from the guys at either 19 or 20 and the Pats lose out. Now, on the other hand, if no one knows that the Pats are looking at a CB, then the price can probably be easily negotiated without it costing too much. The Pats get the player they want for the price they are willing to pay.

If someteam wants to trade for Asante they have to make an offer and the Patriots can choose to except it BUT they have to give up 2 first round picks. Which would be 3 first rounders this year and 2 next year.

 

[DaBruinz]

If someteam wants to trade for Asante they have to make an offer and the Patriots can choose to except it BUT they have to give up 2 first round picks. Which would be 3 first rounders this year and 2 next year.

Totally and uniqivocally false. The Pats traded Tebucky Jones for a 2nd, 3rd and 7th round pick. Last I looked, that wasn't 2 1st rounders.

The Pats can chose to trade Samuel for whatever they can get for him. Its extremely unlikely that they'd be offered 2 1st round picks. A scenario similar to Jones is what would be more likely.

 

[biffman]

Hold on there for just a second. I read on another site that the Patriots have to wait until July 15th to sign Samuel or they lose the franchise tag for the life of the contract. Is this true? If so, that would certainly explain why they haven’t announced the signing yet.

 

[pats1]

I assume Shavers is Samuel's agent ?

Correct.

Alonzo Shavers.

 

[italia44]

just a couple of thoughts about this.......

1.)Samuel hasn't even signed his RFA Tender yet,keeping open his option to hold out

2.)As DABRUINZ,so cogently put it,The Patriots aren't locked into 2 Firsts for Samuel.....they can trade him for whatever they feel is appropriate.
(If this is an option,why not wait until the Draft,to
maximize your trade options.)

3.)Most say extend his contract now,however,this
isn't about contract,per se,it's about GUARANTEED money........signing bonus.
Teams are more restricted now,about how they can extend the Cap hit on large,up-front bonuses.
Samuel and the Patriots could be far apart on the bonus money over a 5-year contract........even $2M
per year is $10M over the life of the contract.

4.)Lastly,after the Draft and before the July 15 deadline,the pressure ramps-up on Asante and his agent,not the Pats.His desire for a Mega-signing bonus will become much more constricted,as teams will simply be out of 2007 cap space.
IMHO,this will get worked out,the Draft in April,is the key.

 

[DaBruinz]

If someteam wants to trade for Asante they have to make an offer and the Patriots can choose to except it BUT they have to give up 2 first round picks. Which would be 3 first rounders this year and 2 next year.

Sorry. You are wrong. The Pats ONLY get 2 1st round picks IF a team SIGNS Samuel and no agreement is reached on compensation. However, that NEVER happens. The compensation is always worked out in advance. And has been that way since Sean Gilbert was signed by the Panthers from the Packers.

 

[DaBruinz]

Hold on there for just a second. I read on another site that the Patriots have to wait until July 15th to sign Samuel or they lose the franchise tag for the life of the contract. Is this true? If so, that would certainly explain why they haven’t announced the signing yet.

This is FALSE. The new CBA changed the rule. The Pats have until July 16th to sign Samuel. If they don't sign him to a long term deal by the July 16, then they can ONLY sign him to a 1 year deal.

http://www.patscap.com/patsfreeagency.html

 

[jbb9s]

Not so long ago, BB/SP let another high profile CB walk who wanted mega bucks and replaced him with a unheralded draft pick from the Big 10. If Asante is only willing to accept a Nate Clement's bonus and terms and truly this is a possibility considering he had more TDs in the playoffs than the future running back of the franchise, the Patriots might not want to sign him. Don't you think two $4M CBs would be better than one $8M CB? Plus, factor in the draft picks the Pats could retain from a overzealous suitor such as the Skins.

Just don't want to lose sight that letting Asante leave may be better for the franchise. He wasn't even a Pro Bowler and going into 06, many though he was a solid nickel back. Plus, most of his picks were situational: i.e., it wasn't like he locked down on a guy and stole the ball but rather was in the right place due to the scheme, coverage switches, whatever.

 

[shirtsleeve]

just a couple of thoughts about this.......

1.)Samuel hasn't even signed his RFA Tender yet,keeping open his option to hold out

2.)As DABRUINZ,so cogently put it,The Patriots aren't locked into 2 Firsts for Samuel.....they can trade him for whatever they feel is appropriate.
(If this is an option,why not wait until the Draft,to
maximize your trade options.)

3.)Most say extend his contract now,however,this
isn't about contract,per se,it's about GUARANTEED money........signing bonus.
Teams are more restricted now,about how they can extend the Cap hit on large,up-front bonuses.
Samuel and the Patriots could be far apart on the bonus money over a 5-year contract........even $2M
per year is $10M over the life of the contract.

4.)Lastly,after the Draft and before the July 15 deadline,the pressure ramps-up on Asante and his agent,not the Pats.His desire for a Mega-signing bonus will become much more constricted,as teams will simply be out of 2007 cap space.
IMHO,this will get worked out,the Draft in April,is the key.

I wish we had the guinness guys smileys. You deserve a Brillent! Brillient!!:eat3:

 

[mcbee]

I know it's fun to speculate and wish about additional FA's that could help us. However, IMO, our only big bucks priority now should be to close the deal on a contract extension for Samuel. Doing so will really solidify our CB situation, and clarify the priorities for all other needs.

I can't understand the wishes for trading and signing Briggs, when it seems likely that doing so would seriously threaten our ability to get a deal done with Samuel.

The guy who's still out there that I'd like more than Briggs is S Ken Hamlin. But I feel the same about him as I do about any other high priced FA. He is a lower priority than re-signing Samuel.

Nonsense!

Samuel is a one-year wonder. Let him play next year and then trade him afterwards. The onus will be on him to really perform (again). Otherwise it's buyer's remorse as he won't play as well once he gets his big bonus.

Pats need a CB or two to bring along to get ready for Samuel's departure.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mo - This is false. They changed the time frame and there is no longer that penalty for teams if a player is signed with the new CBA.

From March 1-July 15th, the player can now sign a long term contract.

In fact, a deal has to be in place BY July 15th or Samuel can ONLY sign a one year deal.

That was what I said. We weren't discussing anything else. Some here were opining we could sign him after we see how he's playing in 2007 once the season starts.


Assante hinted that he and the team were very close just a few weeks ago and that he was happy with how things were going. The whole "in discussions" with the team, in my opinion, is a smoke screen. The deal, imho, is done, its just not being announced until right before the draft so that other teams don't have an inkling as to what the Patriots will do.

Asante didn't hint at anything. He said things were going great. That could just as easily mean he and the his agent and the team have an understanding that they will either get a deal done or get a trade done. Lack of progress or discussions will only become an issue if as the draft approaches talks stall and we draft a corner high, or July 15th approaches they aren't making significant progress towards a deal, so Asante announces he won't be in camp without a long term deal.

I think at this point Asante is happy because he knows he's already got a little more money on the table then they offered him in November on a long term deal he had no interest in signing. It can only get better. The only FA corner of significance got $9M per AAV and $22M guaranteed. And the team is saying all the right nice things about him, and visa versa, so it's not adversarial at this juncture (and hopefully it never gets to that point). Asante likely believes as I do that they will EITHER sign him or trade him or extend their window by signing him to a one year deal that takes the tag off the table for 2008 as a sign of good faith, but not force him to play under the tag with no intention of signing a long term deal (which is apparently the situation Briggs is dealing with) and the right to tag him again at their discretion.

 

[patsfangr]

I dunno.

I just dont see the draft pick difference to me if i were the jets philly or NO of knowing that Samuel is locked up long term versus Samuel being Franchised.

Either way the assumption is Samuel is playing for the Pats in 2007-08 and it is unlikely pats are picking 2 CBs with their #1s.

Yes if the Pats were forced to trade Samuel; it would seem almost impossible for them to NOT draft a CB.

But again I don't see the difference between Franchise and long-term signed in that regard. I don't see any information there to conceal. He is Franchised; that is public information.

My purely "gut feel guess" is that it is what it is. No deal is completed yet.

However, I do concede that HWC's theory could be correct. What you're missing, Gumby, is that "Franchised" is not a guarantee that Samuel will play for the Pats, or that the Pats believe he will. He could still hold out of TC, and be traded for picks next season. There's definite uncertainty there, versus having him under long term contract.

I also completely agree with HWC's point regarding the value in keeping a "done deal" secret. Clearly there are teams both ahead and behind the Pats in the draft order who would like to know the likely priority we'd place on the CB position in R1. Right now, assuming Asante stays and plays, I'd guess our priorities to be S and LB. If I thought we'd lose Asante, those would change to CB and S, IMO. I suspect that some of those GMs would feel the same way. What other teams think we'll do most certainly affects their strategy for thier own pick.

 

[patsfangr]

Nonsense!

Samuel is a one-year wonder. Let him play next year and then trade him afterwards. The onus will be on him to really perform (again). Otherwise it's buyer's remorse as he won't play as well once he gets his big bonus.

Pats need a CB or two to bring along to get ready for Samuel's departure.

The 'mcbee' handle is obviously an alias, because I just checked the list of NFL GMs and Head Coaches, and didn't see a "McBee" there. I don't think I've ever seen that much certainty about the future of a player from Mel Kiper!

I agree that last season was certainly far better than anything we've seen consistently from Samuel thus far in his career. But he had certainly shown flashes of outstanding play earlier. I've seen no reason to consider it impossible that he could continue the level of play we saw last season; or even improve upon it, as he gains experience with the game, and the players in the league.

Personally, what I saw of his play last season pushes my opinion, which is likely no more or less "expert" than yours, more toward the latter scenario. But I wouldn't be so presumptuous as to believe that I could predict his future, and declare such success a certainty.

 

[solman]

We can certainly talk extension but we cannot sign a multi year extension with him after July 15 until the last week of the regular season.

Quite right. My bad.

I still don't think we should negotiate a deal with him until his demands factor in a discount for the fact that he could only have one great season (not going to happen) or until after we see him play (meaning next FA season when he is again franchise tag eligible).

 

[solman]

My hypothesis is that the Pats and Samuel have already agreed to a deal, but are waiting until after the draft to formalize it. Knowing that the Pats had a long-term deal with Samuel would give a lot of information to other teams about the Pats draft priorities -- information that Belichick would rather hold close to the vest.

Why do I think this? Asante couldn't stop the big grin in the TV interview when he said things were "going good" with the Pats.

The advantage that Belioli get from keeping a deal secret is not worth the risk that Samuel changes his mind.

If the Patriots don't draft a CB, Asante has more negotiating leverage.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Asante is smiling because he's guaranteed at least $7.8M this season. He's smiling because his agent and the Patriots have a good working relationship which means he will likely get what he wants one way or another (play for tag and FA with no tag in 2008, long term deal here, long term deal elsewhere following a trade).

Despite what their earlier comments indicated about their disappointment with the Patriots November offer, I think this is a pair who actually do see the tag as a badge of honor. In tagging Asante the FO legitimized his value to the rest of the league. This is just business as usual when business is handled rationally and professionally.

Well the encouraging thing is that at least the Pats and Samuel are talking. And the fact that Samuel is not pissed off makes it a whole lot more likely that we will sign him. Football players are people too. Yes in the end it will come down to money, but if Samuel felt he was being "disrespected" or whatnot it would be neigh impossible to sign him.

I have a lot better feeling about the Samuel talks than the Branch negotiations. Let's put it that way. If you got them talking, at least they are talking.

Nonsense!

Samuel is a one-year wonder. Let him play next year and then trade him afterwards. The onus will be on him to really perform (again). Otherwise it's buyer's remorse as he won't play as well once he gets his big bonus.

Pats need a CB or two to bring along to get ready for Samuel's departure.

Well let's say your assumption that Samuel just had his best year and he won't reach that level again is TRUE. Who would we replace him with? The fact of the matter is that it's a seller's market right now. Anyone else we would sign of comparable talent (think Clements) would be as expensive or more expensive and would not have the advantage of already knowing and being developed in the Pats system. So you can make the argument that Samuels is just a product of the system or that he just had one great year that he won't reproduce, but that still doesn't answer who do you get that will do as good of a job? Do I expect a rookie to be able to step in and be our #1 corner? No, I don't really see that kind of can't miss talent at corner this year. There are some great safeties in this draft but the corners only look so-so. Leon Hall is nowhere close to the level of a Champ Bailey or Woodson coming out. I've heard good things about Revis but am I sold on him? I'd rather stick with a proven commodity. You worry about buyer's remorse but I worry about results. We KNOW that Samuel can perform at a very high level in OUR system. We know that Samuel has shown capability of leading the league in interceptions. Even if he never gets over 10 ints again, the reputation has already been earned and will likely make QBs throw at him less imo. Even if Samuel is only very good from now on rather than great, it will be worth locking him into a longterm contract to get stability at the position. Not to mention as I said before, finding a quality replacement is either very expensive via the open market or hit-or-miss via the draft.

The advantage that Belioli get from keeping a deal secret is not worth the risk that Samuel changes his mind.

If the Patriots don't draft a CB, Asante has more negotiating leverage.

I don't mind the Pats drafting a CB even if they do sign Samuel. I see Hobbs more as a great nickel back than a great starting corner. He may prove me wrong but that's just my impression so far.

 

[mcbee]

HOpefully, the Pats will develop a good corner next year and then in the following year they will sell Samuel for draft picks at the height of his market value and repeat the whole process.

My certainty was said in jest, obviously I don't know what they'll do. YOu do run out of money after a while though...Brady, Seymour, Thomas, Colvin....Warren next...the art of the GM management is to replace high priced guys with lower priced guys. If they keep him at franchise for this year, they get an option on the next year without risking too much.