First Things First - Extend Samuel

[patsfangr]

I know it's fun to speculate and wish about additional FA's that could help us. However, IMO, our only big bucks priority now should be to close the deal on a contract extension for Samuel. Doing so will really solidify our CB situation, and clarify the priorities for all other needs.

I can't understand the wishes for trading and signing Briggs, when it seems likely that doing so would seriously threaten our ability to get a deal done with Samuel.

The guy who's still out there that I'd like more than Briggs is S Ken Hamlin. But I feel the same about him as I do about any other high priced FA. He is a lower priority than re-signing Samuel.

 

[pats1]

Butch Stearns on Fox25 News last night said he talked to Shavers and that he and the Pats are "in discussions."

 

[solman]

I know it's fun to speculate and wish about additional FA's that could help us. However, IMO, our only big bucks priority now should be to close the deal on a contract extension for Samuel. Doing so will really solidify our CB situation, and clarify the priorities for all other needs.

I can't understand the wishes for trading and signing Briggs, when it seems likely that doing so would seriously threaten our ability to get a deal done with Samuel.

The guy who's still out there that I'd like more than Briggs is S Ken Hamlin. But I feel the same about him as I do about any other high priced FA. He is a lower priority than re-signing Samuel.

1. Samuel had a great year last year, but so far its his only one. It would hardly be unprecedented if his fourth season turned out to be the best.

If Samuel's assessment of his own value included a substantial discount because of this, I would agree with you that we should sign him right now.

But from all outward appearances, it looks like Samuel thinks he will be a perennial pro bowl contender. If so, we should wait for him to prove it by having a second consecutive great season. If he does, we can talk extension during the season. If not, maybe his self-assessment will become more reasonable, and we can talk about a far more modest extension during the season.

2. We can get both Briggs AND sign Samuel long term. But by doing so, we risk future salary cap difficulties if any of our big signing (Samuel, Briggs and AD) don't turn out as we expect. Unfortunately, there IS a pretty good chance that one of the three won't turn out as we expect (and I mean any one of the three, not just Samuel). Briggs would probably have to accept an AD style Patriots discount for this to be worth the risk.

 

[Underoath]

Ok seriously. Why would we want Briggs? We have Colvin and Thomas on the outside, Bruschi and Vrabel inside, and Vrabel and Thomas will switch around some. I don't understand it. How about instead of wasting money on a probowler that won't play much, and signing a decent backup for far less money. We don't need another OLB.

 

[BelichickFan]

Butch Stearns on Fox25 News last night said he talked to Shavers and that he and the Pats are "in discussions."

I assume Shavers is Samuel's agent ?

 

[BelichickFan]

Ok seriously. Why would we want Briggs? We have Colvin and Thomas on the outside, Bruschi and Vrabel inside, and Vrabel and Thomas will switch around some. I don't understand it

Depth and rotations.

Depth because we always seem to have a lot of injuries. Rotations because that still only leaves us with 5 starters for 4 spots - we could keep everyone fresh until injuries hit. Big advantage in the 4th quarter.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

But from all outward appearances, it looks like Samuel thinks he will be a perennial pro bowl contender. If so, we should wait for him to prove it by having a second consecutive great season. If he does, we can talk extension during the season. If not, maybe his self-assessment will become more reasonable, and we can talk about a far more modest extension during the season.

2. We can get both Briggs AND sign Samuel long term. But by doing so, we risk future salary cap difficulties if any of our big signing (Samuel, Briggs and AD) don't turn out as we expect. Unfortunately, there IS a pretty good chance that one of the three won't turn out as we expect (and I mean any one of the three, not just Samuel). Briggs would probably have to accept an AD style Patriots discount for this to be worth the risk.

We can certainly talk extension but we cannot sign a multi year extension with him after July 15 until the last week of the regular season. Between those periods a franchise tagged player can only be signed to a one year deal, which seldom happens except as a means to get them into camp (basically the tag salary guaranteed and an agreement not to re-tag as was done with Alexander).

Once he makes it to that point he is a playoffs appearance away from being a FA again, and since his signing bonus here/then would incorporate what he already pocketed in tag salary there is a liklihood he would opt instead to hold off on a deal preferring to test the market again (and receive an additional double digit signing bonus in 2008 or be re tagged at $9.5M.)

There is also the possibility that Stallworth proves to be a stellar addition at #1 and his option is exercized. I know there are those who believe that his $11M option bonus would then be renegotiated, but I doubt Donte and his agent are in that camp.

There are only so many $6M+ players you can carry on a roster before they start to seriously impact your ability to carry quality players at every position including depth. Or your ability to replace one of them if the unthinkable happens. Not to mention your ability to retain other talent completing their rookie deals.

That's why I still believe they will either come to agreement prior to draft day or flip Asante for picks. After that the only viable options remaining are to give him what he wants long term or perhaps trade away the right to re-tag him in order to get him into camp. If they flip him it's possible they would persue another expensive LB and opt to focus the draft on the secondary.

Tom Curran was on WEEI yesterday and someone asked him how close he thought they were last November to getting a deal done - and his response was not close at all, and that was before he added several more picks to the equation. So while Shavers and the team are in discussions those may not yet lead to a deal and could very well yet lead to a trade. But unlike the Briggs (or Branch) situation, I do think they will lead to something amenable to both sides and probably prior to the draft. I just don't think Belioli will head into another TC with a potentially ugly holdout situation marring an otherwise promising off season.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Samuel was amazing the second half of last year, but I have to admit to being a bit skeptical. Just by happenstance, I watched some of the Carolina Panthers game last night -- it lives permanently on my tivo. He really got torched quite a bit.

If the staff thinks he's worth signing long term, so be it, and I'll be glad for the extra cap room. But I am a bit concerned about complacency with a long-term deal. He might play better next year under a franchise tag.

 

[BradyManny]

We can certainly talk extension but we cannot sign a multi year extension with him after July 15 until the last week of the regular season. Between those periods a franchise tagged player can only be signed to a one year deal, which seldom happens except as a means to get them into camp (basically the tag salary guaranteed and an agreement not to re-tag as was done with Alexander).

Once he makes it to that point he is a playoffs appearance away from being a FA again, and since his signing bonus here/then would incorporate what he already pocketed in tag salary there is a liklihood he would opt instead to hold off on a deal preferring to test the market again (and receive an additional double digit signing bonus in 2008 or be re tagged at $9.5M.)

There is also the possibility that Stallworth proves to be a stellar addition at #1 and his option is exercized. I know there are those who believe that his $11M option bonus would then be renegotiated, but I doubt Donte and his agent are in that camp.

There are only so many $6M+ players you can carry on a roster before they start to seriously impact your ability to carry quality players at every position including depth. Or your ability to replace one of them if the unthinkable happens. Not to mention your ability to retain other talent completing their rookie deals.

That's why I still believe they will either come to agreement prior to draft day or flip Asante for picks. After that the only viable options remaining are to give him what he wants long term or perhaps trade away the right to re-tag him in order to get him into camp. If they flip him it's possible they would persue another expensive LB and opt to focus the draft on the secondary.

Tom Curran was on WEEI yesterday and someone asked him how close he thought they were last November to getting a deal done - and his response was not close at all, and that was before he added several more picks to the equation. So while Shavers and the team are in discussions those may not yet lead to a deal and could very well yet lead to a trade. But unlike the Briggs (or Branch) situation, I do think they will lead to something amenable to both sides and probably prior to the draft. I just don't think Belioli will head into another TC with a potentially ugly holdout situation marring an otherwise promising off season.

In this instance, I don't see how the fair and reasonable offer that the Pats will and should make could possibly come near the bloated and ridicolous offer Samuel would get on the market.

Unless Samuel really wants to remain a Patriot long term to the point he's willing to sign for much less than he could get or the Patriots determine he will be OK with playing under the tag, then I think he gets moved for picks.

 

[hwc]

My hypothesis is that the Pats and Samuel have already agreed to a deal, but are waiting until after the draft to formalize it. Knowing that the Pats had a long-term deal with Samuel would give a lot of information to other teams about the Pats draft priorities -- information that Belichick would rather hold close to the vest.

Why do I think this? Asante couldn't stop the big grin in the TV interview when he said things were "going good" with the Pats.

 

[Gumby]

hwc

My hypothesis is that the Pats and Samuel have already agreed to a deal, but are waiting until after the draft to formalize it. Knowing that the Pats had a long-term deal with Samuel would give a lot of information to other teams about the Pats draft priorities -- information that Belichick would rather hold close to the vest.

Why do I think this? Asante couldn't stop the big grin in the TV interview when he said things were "going good" with the Pats.

This is at least the 2nd time I have seen you post this thought.

My hypothesis: You sir have gotten silly. too many trips to the dentist or something.

there is no value added in keeping a deal a secret. If they are going to draft a cb; whether or not they have a deal in place with Samuel will not change that decision.

There is value in getting deal done; i.e. right now he is not coming into training camps or practices or workouts.

The deal is not announced because the deal is not done.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

My hypothesis is that the Pats and Samuel have already agreed to a deal, but are waiting until after the draft to formalize it. Knowing that the Pats had a long-term deal with Samuel would give a lot of information to other teams about the Pats draft priorities -- information that Belichick would rather hold close to the vest.

Why do I think this? Asante couldn't stop the big grin in the TV interview when he said things were "going good" with the Pats.

Asante is smiling because he's guaranteed at least $7.8M this season. He's smiling because his agent and the Patriots have a good working relationship which means he will likely get what he wants one way or another (play for tag and FA with no tag in 2008, long term deal here, long term deal elsewhere following a trade).

Despite what their earlier comments indicated about their disappointment with the Patriots November offer, I think this is a pair who actually do see the tag as a badge of honor. In tagging Asante the FO legitimized his value to the rest of the league. This is just business as usual when business is handled rationally and professionally.

 

[patsox23]

This is at least the 2nd time I have seen you post this thought.

My hypothesis: You sir have gotten silly. too many trips to the dentist or something.

there is no value added in keeping a deal a secret. If they are going to draft a cb; whether or not they have a deal in place with Samuel will not change that decision.

There is value in getting deal done; i.e. right now he is not coming into training camps or practices or workouts.

The deal is not announced because the deal is not done.

I don't know if hwc's hypothesis is right or not, but I don't dismiss it out of hand. I could see this F.O. withholding info as the draft approaches, no problem.

 

[fgssand]

I don't know if hwc's hypothesis is right or not, but I don't dismiss it out of hand. I could see this F.O. withholding info as the draft approaches, no problem.

I absolutely agree.....It makes perfect sense to me that BB/SP would not want that information released for strategic purposes. Why provide any kind of clue about what we plan to do or not do in the draft?

The more I think about the Stearns interview that I watched, the more it makes me think a deal has indeed been agreed to. About the only thing that could screw it up would be Assante hurting himself in Foxboro at the workouts.

 

[hwc]

there is no value added in keeping a deal a secret.

The heck there isn't. If Asante does not have a long-term deal, then the Pats are extremely likely to draft CB heavy in the draft. If Asante is signed long-term, then the Pats are drafting CB for depth.

Those are two very different scenarios. Why would the Pats want competing GMs to know which is which as they try to plot draft day strategy? How would announcing a Samuel deal before the draft help the New England Patriots? I'm sure the guy is getting in his March off-season workouts, whether it's in Foxboro or Florida.

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

I would rather see if he continue his play into the 08 off-season then we can work out a deal. Because he wasnt exactly a "shutdown" corner before last season.

 

[Gumby]

I dunno.

I just dont see the draft pick difference to me if i were the jets philly or NO of knowing that Samuel is locked up long term versus Samuel being Franchised.

Either way the assumption is Samuel is playing for the Pats in 2007-08 and it is unlikely pats are picking 2 CBs with their #1s.

Yes if the Pats were forced to trade Samuel; it would seem almost impossible for them to NOT draft a CB.

But again I don't see the difference between Franchise and long-term signed in that regard. I don't see any information there to conceal. He is Franchised; that is public information.

 

[DaBruinz]

We can certainly talk extension but we cannot sign a multi year extension with him after July 15 until the last week of the regular season. Between those periods a franchise tagged player can only be signed to a one year deal, which seldom happens except as a means to get them into camp (basically the tag salary guaranteed and an agreement not to re-tag as was done with Alexander).

Mo - This is false. They changed the time frame and there is no longer that penalty for teams if a player is signed with the new CBA.

From March 1-July 15th, the player can now sign a long term contract.

In fact, a deal has to be in place BY July 15th or Samuel can ONLY sign a one year deal.

Tom Curran was on WEEI yesterday and someone asked him how close he thought they were last November to getting a deal done - and his response was not close at all, and that was before he added several more picks to the equation. So while Shavers and the team are in discussions those may not yet lead to a deal and could very well yet lead to a trade. But unlike the Briggs (or Branch) situation, I do think they will lead to something amenable to both sides and probably prior to the draft. I just don't think Belioli will head into another TC with a potentially ugly holdout situation marring an otherwise promising off season.

Assante hinted that he and the team were very close just a few weeks ago and that he was happy with how things were going. The whole "in discussions" with the team, in my opinion, is a smoke screen. The deal, imho, is done, its just not being announced until right before the draft so that other teams don't have an inkling as to what the Patriots will do.

 

[DaBruinz]

This is at least the 2nd time I have seen you post this thought.

My hypothesis: You sir have gotten silly. too many trips to the dentist or something.

there is no value added in keeping a deal a secret. If they are going to draft a cb; whether or not they have a deal in place with Samuel will not change that decision.

There is value in getting deal done; i.e. right now he is not coming into training camps or practices or workouts.

The deal is not announced because the deal is not done.

Sorry Gumby, but there is plenty of value to not announcing the deal now.

1) Asante IS working out. He got permission from the Pats last year to work out in Florida instead of with the team and that is what he's doing again this year.

2) There are no official camps currently. The only OFFICIAL thing is the off-season program.

3) The Patriots, by waiting to announce the deal, are able to keep other teams guessing as to what the Patriots are going to do.

 

[DaBruinz]

I dunno.

I just dont see the draft pick difference to me if i were the jets philly or NO of knowing that Samuel is locked up long term versus Samuel being Franchised.

Either way the assumption is Samuel is playing for the Pats in 2007-08 and it is unlikely pats are picking 2 CBs with their #1s.

Yes if the Pats were forced to trade Samuel; it would seem almost impossible for them to NOT draft a CB.

But again I don't see the difference between Franchise and long-term signed in that regard. I don't see any information there to conceal. He is Franchised; that is public information.

There is plenty of difference. There is NO assumption that Samuel is playing for the Pats in 2007 because there is no deal announced. Other GMs have probably been contacted to see the potential for a trading partner, as well. That sends the signals that Asante may NOT be with the Pats. And it gets teams thinking that the Pats will be looking at a CB in round 1.

Just because a player is franchised, it doesn't mean he is part of the team. He is still free agent and can sign with other teams.

Look at it from a draft strategy standpoint. If the Pats want to draft a CB in the 1st round and the person they want is sitting there at 17, but its likely that the Teams at 18, 19, or 20 will take the guy. The Pats would want to move up. If its KNOWN they are probably moving up for a CB, the price for the trade will be significantly higher and its less likely that a deal gets done. In fact, there's a good chance that the team at 17 can get another bid from the guys at either 19 or 20 and the Pats lose out. Now, on the other hand, if no one knows that the Pats are looking at a CB, then the price can probably be easily negotiated without it costing too much. The Pats get the player they want for the price they are willing to pay.