Felger: Start BenJarvus Green Ellis

[RayClay]

You do know that Morris is only averaging .3 yards per carry more than Maroney is don't you?

You obviously haven't read my posts (don't blame you) because if you had, you'd realize how much of a laugh i got out of someone bothering to say .3 yards as if every tenth of a yard either way has some cosmic significance.

Here's a clue. Running backs don't run in the same situation 100 yards down the field. They run in chunks of ten, usually requiring on one of three downs.

To take all the runs, regardless of situation, then average them to determine which running back is better is absurd.

Case in point, Sammy Morris got first downs and touchdowns the other day. that is all that matters. It doesn't matter if he averaged 5 yds or 3 yds pc.

If the 5 yd guy fails to get first downs and touchdowns, while the other has less yardage, but converst, the 3 yd guy has got the job done, 5 yd guy, no.

If you're into statistics, you might check the median and the mode as two measures of central place that tell far more about running effectiveness than the mean (average).

 

[RayClay]

Here's an old post of mine where I show a consistent 3.5 YPC runner more effective than a 5.5 YPC

IMO moving the chains is a more important aspect of a running game, because it is easier to pass for 15-20 yards than run, so what is the real benefit of a runner who occasionally breaks one but has difficulty in close quarters?

When you have a Brady and Moss? Relatively little, I'd say.

A hypothetical example. Let's take four downs.

Swifty has a 20 yard run in there, 3 times <1 yard. Pokie gets 3.5 yards each carry.

Swifty never makes the 20 yard run if it is the last in sequence. If it is third, he gets a first down and has a first and 9+. If it's second, he has a first down then 3rd and 8+.

If it's on first down he has a first down, then 3 runs for less than 3 yards, so he punts on 4th and 7+.

Pokie runs for 3.5, 3.5 then gets a first down on 3rd and 3, then gains 3.5 on first down to leave his team at 2nd and 6+.

Swifty averaged about 5.5 (between 5.75 and 5.25) a carry. Pokie, obviously averaged 3.5.

 

[bradydaman29]

When I watch the Pats in regards the RB situation, I can't help but think of an analogy to the Celtics in the 80's. Lomo is Cedric Maxwell, the guy who starts the game, does OK but nothing much more than an average job. Morris is Kevin McHale, coming off the bench, most of the time making a huge impact on the game. And in crunch time, it's McHale in there, the guy who can get things done when they need to be done.

So even though I'm in the camp of those that cringe when Lomo is given the ball and am happy if he doesn't lose yardage, it could be that he helps Morris by allowing Morris to be more fresh when he comes in and able to stay fresher than the defense toward the end of the game. It also provides that change of pace that the defense may take time to adjust to. So, all in all, I think BB is using Lomo to his best effectiveness.

 

[Deus Irae]

Here's an old post of mine where I show a consistent 3.5 YPC runner more effective than a 5.5 YPC

1.) This didn't "show" anything.

2.) FTW has already put forth the data from 2007, which showed that Maroney was actually a very successful runner. This has been gone through before.

 

[RayClay]

1.) This didn't "show" anything.

2.) FTW has already put forth the data from 2007, which showed that Maroney was actually a very successful runner. This has been gone through before.

What specifically do you question? It's a hypothetical by the way, I didn't mention Maroney.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Here's an old post of mine where I show a consistent 3.5 YPC runner more effective than a 5.5 YPC

Yeah, and then you'll recall that I showed you a nice a little stat called success rate, alongside a carry-by-carry breakdown, which pretty much blew your entire premise out of the water. Maroney has historically been very good at the very thing that you accused him of not being able to do. I'm not going to debate this again- we've already been through it.

 

[smg93]

Given that Light himself noted that the blocking failed a lot on the runs this past week, and given that he's seen the tapes that Bruschi hasn't, I'll go with Light on this one.

Why in the world would you want to do that? We've all talked about how there are other players on other teams such as TO and P Manning who when interviewed have thrown teammates under the bus and how New England players would never do that.

So why would you expect Matt Light to say that the line played well but Maroney just sucks??

We've seen published reports of Tedy, Fauria, Grogan, and respected journalists like Reiss say that Maroney hasn't done well because he keeps on "dancing" before he hits holes. Why would you choose to ignore all of that and instead focus on what one guy said, who is on a team that is famous for not throwing teammates under the bus?

 

[stcjones]

Last night on Sportstonight, Michael Felger recommended starting BJGE this week and benching Maroney. His guest, former Patriot TE Christian Fauria replied that "I wish we could put an electronic harness around Maroney so that every time he starts to dance we could press a button and shock him from the sidelines".

finally a few intelligent minds out there on the maroney topic......don't agree with Felger all that often...but Fauria is usually spot on in his realistic analysis.....Agree completely with them here......

 

[RayClay]

Yeah, and then you'll recall that I showed you a nice a little stat called success rate, alongside a carry-by-carry breakdown, which pretty much blew your entire premise out of the water. Maroney has historically been very good at the very thing that you accused him of not being able to do. I'm not going to debate this again- we've already been through it.

This is simple, it's not some formula I concocted based on my own criterian of what's an important carry or not.

It's funny to me that people that rely so much on statistics to judge things believe ins some formula somebody made up, but don't seem to understand simple statistics, or anything other than averages.

What is it about this persons proprietary formula I should accept as relevant or valid? It's based on judgments.

I made up a hypothetical model you can try yourself, 4 downs at a time, down the field, the way the game is played. Tweak the numbers, it would still work. And I make no assumptions or judgments.

 

[moosekill]

Light noted the failures of the offensive line when asked about Maroney commenting on the blocking. Belichick has kept Maroney as the team's #1 rb since 2007.

Are they "maroons", too?

What would you like Light to say? Boy Maroney really sucks and Taylor is much better? Of course the O-line takes a bullet for him, that is part of playing on a team. It doesn't mean that it is true however.

 

[SpiderFox53]

This is simple, it's not some formula I concocted based on my own criterian of what's an important carry or not.

It's funny to me that people that rely so much on statistics to judge things believe ins some formula somebody made up, but don't seem to understand simple statistics, or anything other than averages.

What is it about this persons proprietary formula I should accept as relevant or valid? It's based on judgments.

I made up a hypothetical model you can try yourself, 4 downs at a time, down the field, the way the game is played. Tweak the numbers, it would still work. And I make no assumptions or judgments.

But your hypothetical exists in a vacuum, and the Patriots running game does not. LM and SM do not get carries in the same situations, with the same defensive personel on the field. Your hypothetical situation ignores everything except the runner himself and you can't do that.

It's funny. I'm not a LM fan or hater. He's shown flashes in the past, he's also been hurt alot and hasn't been at all consistant, but I find myself arguing with the LM hater/bashers because, for the most part, they can't see the forest for the trees.

I posted a stat line earlier in this thread and asked people to guess who it belonged to. Nobody took me up on it. It belongs to Adrian Peterson, and was posted simply to counter the "7 for 6 he stinks argument". Anybody can have a bad game, If LM gives us .85 yards per carry for an entire season, I'll agree that he stinks. But, as long as BB keeps using him, I'll keep rooting for him to do well (which he sometimes does).

 

[moosekill]

To be fair to Felger, a lot of the media has been bashing Maroney, just as a lot of the media was bashing Cassel last season. It comes from a combination of a kernel of some level of truth (even if the 'truth' isn't on point or is misleading), a bunch of lazy 'analysts', and a media that's both too lazy and too stupid to do its own research and thinking.

I remember a lot of Cassel bashing in the preseason, but I don't really remember a ton of bashing as the season progressed. At the same time, Cassel certainly wasn't Brady at first, and they did lose a few games that, I think, they would have won if Cassel had played better. He just kept improving over the season, unlike Maroney.

 

[moosekill]

My personal feeling is LM looks more tentative this year than he has in the past. I especially noticed it on kick off returns, which I always thought was one of his strong points. I thought he looked really bad last Sunday, very tentative taking the ball.

I always liked LM and I blamed some of his dancing at the line in the past on bad habits picked up when he played through some of his injuries. This year, however it just seems more pronounced. Hopefully he will pick it up a bit with more playing time with Taylor out.

 

[Triumph]

finally a few intelligent minds out there on the maroney topic......don't agree with Felger all that often...but Fauria is usually spot on in his realistic analysis.....Agree completely with them here......

But dont you realize that Morris, Taylor and Faulk get all the good run plays and best blocking and Maroney is stuck with whats leftover? Maroney even blamed the blocking for some his failures. The NE coaching staff is not putting Lawrence into a position to succeed.

 

[RayClay]

But your hypothetical exists in a vacuum, and the Patriots running game does not. LM and SM do not get carries in the same situations, with the same defensive personel on the field. Your hypothetical situation ignores everything except the runner himself and you can't do that.

It's funny. I'm not a LM fan or hater. He's shown flashes in the past, he's also been hurt alot and hasn't been at all consistant, but I find myself arguing with the LM hater/bashers because, for the most part, they can't see the forest for the trees.

I posted a stat line earlier in this thread and asked people to guess who it belonged to. Nobody took me up on it. It belongs to Adrian Peterson, and was posted simply to counter the "7 for 6 he stinks argument". Anybody can have a bad game, If LM gives us .85 yards per carry for an entire season, I'll agree that he stinks. But, as long as BB keeps using him, I'll keep rooting for him to do well (which he sometimes does).

No, my model is based on having four trials in during which you need to gain 10 yards at some point. It's what moving the chains entails. It makes no assumptions.

You can plug in any data you want and the guy who has the most consistent runs in the 3-5 yd range will succeed more consistently, though his average might be less.

If you want to base a theory on the fact that worse blockers, better defensive players, or worse field conditions exist when Mo runs, have at it.

4 downs ten yards is not my model, it's the NFLs.

[obviously it's three downs, since mine is a model and in the real world the coach does not know what the runner will get before he runs. 4th is assumed a punting down.]

 

[buile]

> My personal feeling is LM looks more tentative this year than he has in the past.

Interesting. I got the opposite impression -- I felt he's made a conscious effort to be decisive at the line. It's unfortunate the past couple weeks defenders are in the backfield as soon as he gets the handoff.

I think part of the frustration, and this is all impressions, is Maroney may get good YPC on average; sure, I agree he's a Good back, but for whatever reason, whenever a decent run would maintain or add initiative to an important drive, he's getting stuffed.

He ran hard in the Ravens game, but as someone mentioned, he's awfully upright and absorbs the full brunt of some hits.

 

[RayClay]

It's funny. I'm not a LM fan or hater. He's shown flashes in the past, he's also been hurt alot and hasn't been at all consistant, but I find myself arguing with the LM hater/bashers because, for the most part, they can't see the forest for the trees.

I posted a stat line earlier in this thread and asked people to guess who it belonged to. Nobody took me up on it. It belongs to Adrian Peterson, and was posted simply to counter the "7 for 6 he stinks argument". Anybody can have a bad game, If LM gives us .85 yards per carry for an entire season, I'll agree that he stinks. But, as long as BB keeps using him, I'll keep rooting for him to do well (which he sometimes does).

I like Maroney, that doesn't have much to do with it. In the NFL, even if you aren't a strictly north and south runner, you have to establish you can run inside. Barry Sanders did too. If you get the reputation of avoiding contact, you're dead. It's football, not tiddly winks.

Maroney's stats in the last game are meaningless by themselves, the same as you A.P. sample, that's why I didn't comment. Maroney was already having problems avoiding hesitation.

Unless you're saying you watch Adrian Peterson and he's having trouble hesitating or running inside, there's no comparison.

 

[wistahpatsfan]

> My personal feeling is LM looks more tentative this year than he has in the past.

Interesting. I got the opposite impression -- I felt he's made a conscious effort to be decisive at the line. It's unfortunate the past couple weeks defenders are in the backfield as soon as he gets the handoff.

I think part of the frustration, and this is all impressions, is Maroney may get good YPC on average; sure, I agree he's a Good back, but for whatever reason, whenever a decent run would maintain or add initiative to an important drive, he's getting stuffed.

He ran hard in the Ravens game, but as someone mentioned, he's awfully upright and absorbs the full brunt of some hits.

When the Pats took LM, I was as excited as everyone else. Now, if he was on another team, like say Pittsburg, we'd be talking about him the way he really is...a huge disappointment and wondering why the Steelers keep him. He must be awesome in practice. He's inconsistent at best, and I could handle that over a season, but this has been going on for too long, IMO.

 

[moosekill]

> My personal feeling is LM looks more tentative this year than he has in the past.

Interesting. I got the opposite impression -- I felt he's made a conscious effort to be decisive at the line. It's unfortunate the past couple weeks defenders are in the backfield as soon as he gets the handoff.

I think part of the frustration, and this is all impressions, is Maroney may get good YPC on average; sure, I agree he's a Good back, but for whatever reason, whenever a decent run would maintain or add initiative to an important drive, he's getting stuffed.

He ran hard in the Ravens game, but as someone mentioned, he's awfully upright and absorbs the full brunt of some hits.

From what I have seen, the next time he hits a hole without dancing around will be the first time he does it this year. Now this is different than my impression of him from years past, but hell, he even did it on the kickoff returns Sunday. Furthermore, I also think there are times when a little movement will help, but I also think there are times when you have to throw yourself into the hole and make them tackle you. I just haven't seen him do that at all this year.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Why in the world would you want to do that? We've all talked about how there are other players on other teams such as TO and P Manning who when interviewed have thrown teammates under the bus and how New England players would never do that.

So why would you expect Matt Light to say that the line played well but Maroney just sucks??

We've seen published reports of Tedy, Fauria, Grogan, and respected journalists like Reiss say that Maroney hasn't done well because he keeps on "dancing" before he hits holes. Why would you choose to ignore all of that and instead focus on what one guy said, who is on a team that is famous for not throwing teammates under the bus?

Because just like posters here none of the guys you mention has watched the coaches film nor do they have any knowledge of this teams game plans or blocking assignments. Bill and Matt certainly do. With the exception of Tedy who was still active last season, they all claimed Matt Cassel was not only headed to Walmart but had been outperformed by Gutierrez and KOC. They were wr...wr...wrong as is often the case.

Bill will never throw a player under the bus, and this line has never in my memory owned it's shortcomings, preferring to bask in the reflected glow of a HOF QB with exceptional pocket presence. However we now have BOTH BB and the LT acknowledging there are presently blocking issues that impact the running game. If he were annoyed with Maroney that's the last thing BB would say. And if he was annoyed with Maroney's on field performance he likely isn't the starter for the last 3 weeks since BB has options. Not sure what Maroney might have done with a better blocking OL, but I do believe that 3/5ths of this OL would not still be employed in this league if they were not fronting Brady and coached up to scheme. Mankins is legit, but Light is a fourth string probowler at best and the overall product remains a metaphor for a winning system.

There was a short snipet of Dante kneeling in front of the bench and extolling his guys to make some plays to get the runners going last week on All Access. Thereafter they made some. Not Maroney's fault it wasn't on his watch (which BB indicated included some predetermined run stuffing blocking by Baltimore early on as opposed to a defense shading the pass when Morris and Faulk were in. Any one of the backs and probably BJGE could have run in the 12 yard TD because the blocking was well executed on that snap against a defense that was playing the pass.

Maroney has also improved as a blocker which is something fanboys lose sight of in evaluating a RB - and that's a huge mistake here because BB clearly values and often emphasizes that aspect of a backs or receivers game. Everyone has to block here because the OL can't stand alone. They're smart and they're quick but they are all too often overmatched by speed rushers and/or substantial pressure up the middle. They aren't built to open holes or hold their blocks consistently without committing penalties. They tend to have their personal best success when we feature guys like Dillon and Taylor who open their own holes. The problem with those guys is they don't stand up to the beating. We 1 got dominant season out of Dillon. After that if he got through a hole anyone not on life support could catch him from behind. He had as many tap outs as carries his last two seasons here. Then Maroney got hurt fighting for yards Dillon wasn't available for. In back to back to back seasons. We got half a dozen games out of Morris in Dillon's place before he went to IR. We got 4 games out of reportedly fragile Fred who may or may not return this post season.

Bill drafted Maroney for a reason. He wanted the home run hitter. He can find the short yardage back for short money on the FA market or as an UDFA and they are expendable because they are replaceable. Sadly he was unble to retool his OL to zone block because they couldn't handle it without massive substitutions that basically hamstrung the coordinator. And he apparently felt upgrades on defense were even more pressing so he couldn't turn the unit over via draft. He probably is intending to and this last draft was step one. He has lots of high picks stockpiled going forward and I think more than a few will be used on OL.

Those who believe Maroney also disappointed as a kick returner should read Box's latest thread on ST and the return units performance. Although if your thing is formulating kneejerk reaction underscored by dug in defense of the same, there probably isn't any point. The kneejerk know it alls aren't here to learn or understand, just to vent and disparage. Bill says that Denver ST coverage units are top flight, not that the kneejerks ever stop to consider such mitigating factors, so Maroney or whomever will have their work cut out for them this week if their goal is to impress the fanbase.