FA market has changed

[JayNM]

Ayo everybody, here I am with a new topic that i feel needs to be discussed in more detail.

Ive read a lot in these last weeks that our roster is faulty and in need of many pieces for us to become contenders again and Im here NOT to talk about this, but it correlates to it a lot to it, bc I really feel that the mentality of the forum seems a bit outdated

As usual, I'll be the first to say that, to mitigate this, we should have drafted a lot better in the years before, not including 2021. Im here to talk how we NEED to be more used to *close to* 8 digits contracts sooner, rather than later.

The cap is exploding. the NFL, this decade almost had 100% increase in the cap space, coming from a stable 120M-ish in 2008 from 2012 to 200+plus in only 10 years, even with a literal pandemonium happening. While its easy to see that top earners in every position are earning much more nowadays, this trickles down to all levels of free agency, except for rookies. Mediocre players will still demand mediocre payouts, but what is a mediocre payout when 10m is 5% of the cap?

With a limited amount of cash that each team has, it becomes much more important to see the percentage that each player/position demands, rather than the absolute value. 24M/2 for agholor seems like a lot, but what does the market says? Not including how well he was used, for a guy with his production potential, this seems like its the norm, rather than the exception. Just compare his salary to his peers that were signed last year (and this year).

TEs, which have always been underpaid, are now becoming premium pieces and the market shows. 12.5M is not gonna look like much for most of Henry and Smith*'s time here when its less than 5% of the cap for each, and we start seeing guys getting WR-like money, or getting closer to that Kittle salary.

All Im saying is, for us to attract high(ish)-talent, we need to pay according to the market. I think BB realized this last year and ever "bargain shopping" is gonna look more expansive than most years

*unless he keeps sucking hard

 

[50-yard-line]

Yup. Smart move to buy in LAST year to fill so many holes.

With all the CAP the Pats have next year, they can still play this year if they want to. I doubt they will, as they really don't know how guys like Smith are going to perform with a year in the system.

 

[Pape]

we may have bought low on the TE's and the emerging market there, but we paid full market rates for wr... and only hit on one, Bourne...

 

[JayNM]

Yup. Smart move to buy in LAST year to fill so many holes.

With all the CAP the Pats have next year, they can still play this year if they want to. I doubt they will, as they really don't know how guys like Smith are going to perform with a year in the system.

Yeah. Having so much money on a down year was something special. Thats the biggest reason I got over Brady leaving so easily i think.

I said it before, but ill repeat... I think we are in for a crazy offseason. Lots of players are going to get a lot of money and many of them, as usual, wont produce in accord to their contract

So far, every contract has been MASSIVE. While its early, i know, i think we are going to see a real upwards trend in contract and it will become much clearer how much of a good offseason BB had last year, ESPECIALLY if Smith can contribute to the team

 

[JayNM]

we may have bought low on the TE's and the emerging market there, but we paid full market rates for wr... and only hit on one, Bourne...

Im still not onboard the Agholor hate train, but i understand it. Gallup has signed a 16m contract, Cooper's contract was fully absorbed by the Browns... WR have always been one of the most overvalued positions in the NFL, historically

In Agholor's defense, he is the only real vertical threat on the team, with the addendum of a rookie QB that has got a "non-risk" attitude first

Very difficult situation for him, IMO, to be honest

 

[Patsgofor4]

Tell that to the miserable pukes who have been whining incessantly about the patriots overpaying all of their free agents last off-season. Actually, don’t bother, they won’t listen.

 

[doesntmatter1]

Im still not onboard the Agholor hate train, but i understand it. Gallup has signed a 16m contract, Cooper's contract was fully absorbed by the Browns... WR have always been one of the most overvalued positions in the NFL, historically

In Agholor's defense, he is the only real vertical threat on the team, with the addendum of a rookie QB that has got a "non-risk" attitude first

Very difficult situation for him, IMO, to be honest

I actually think Agholor played well. Defenses respected his speed and he generally caught what went his way. He also seemed to understand the playbook and that alone is half the battle. I like what he brought and I'm excited to see what our offense looks like without McDaniels. I'm not a big fan of McDaniels. When wrs consistently struggle to learn the offense then at some point you have to point the finger at the teacher.

 

[50-yard-line]

we may have bought low on the TE's and the emerging market there, but we paid full market rates for wr... and only hit on one, Bourne...

We certainly didn't pay full market rate for Bourne - the guy is very good - much better than a 3/15 deal (particularly right now).

The only other one we bought in on was Agholor, and 11/per is nothing for a WR2. Guys with his history are going to score 13-16 this year. Also, as others point out, the Pats were keeping Jones in check last year, and being the deep threat probably didn't help much with Agholor's production. The hate he gets here is silly.

 

[mgteich]

Yup. Smart move to buy in LAST year to fill so many holes.

With all the CAP the Pats have next year, they can still play this year if they want to. I doubt they will, as they really don't know how guys like Smith are going to perform with a year in the system.

???
So, since there is a question about future production from Smith and perhaps Agholor, we shouldn't be in the market for CB's, LB's, OL's and DT's?

Perhaps, you are correct if we re-sign all of our free agents. But we won't.

 

[Pape]

We certainly didn't pay full market rate for Bourne - the guy is very good - much better than a 3/15 deal (particularly right now).

The only other one we bought in on was Agholor, and 11/per is nothing for a WR2. Guys with his history are going to score 13-16 this year. Also, as others point out, the Pats were keeping Jones in check last year, and being the deep threat probably didn't help much with Agholor's production. The hate he gets here is silly.

hmmm ... will have to think on the numbers again... but it was only a two year deal... do we fish or cut bait on the future with him

 

[mgteich]

hmmm ... will have to think on the numbers again... but it was only a two year deal... do we fish or cut bait on the future with him

Yes, the real issue with Agholor is NOT whether to trade him. The open question is whether we make a deal on an extension.

 

[50-yard-line]

???
So, since there is a question about future production from Smith and perhaps Agholor, we shouldn't be in the market for CB's, LB's, OL's and DT's?

Perhaps, you are correct if we re-sign all of our free agents. But we won't.

I was talking about WR.

I don't think we're going to see splashes in FA from the Pats. I really don't.

I wouldn't mind Vander Esch, Akiem Hicks or some other proven NT. Wouldn't mind a vet corner.

I just don't think we're going to see much from them this week.

 

[50-yard-line]

hmmm ... will have to think on the numbers again... but it was only a two year deal... do we fish or cut bait on the future with him

Probably depends on who they can land in the draft, or maybe FA, this year. They only have 1 vet WR on the team after this season, so something has to give.

 

[mgteich]

I was talking about WR.

I don't think we're going to see splashes in FA from the Pats. I really don't.

I wouldn't mind Vander Esch, Akiem Hicks or some other proven NT. Wouldn't mind a vet corner.

I just don't think we're going to see much from them this week.

For me, this week is about signing our own, as we just did with McCourty, and didn't with Jackson.

 

[venecol]

Ayo everybody, here I am with a new topic that i feel needs to be discussed in more detail.

Ive read a lot in these last weeks that our roster is faulty and in need of many pieces for us to become contenders again and Im here NOT to talk about this, but it correlates to it a lot to it, bc I really feel that the mentality of the forum seems a bit outdated

As usual, I'll be the first to say that, to mitigate this, we should have drafted a lot better in the years before, not including 2021. Im here to talk how we NEED to be more used to *close to* 8 digits contracts sooner, rather than later.

The cap is exploding. the NFL, this decade almost had 100% increase in the cap space, coming from a stable 120M-ish in 2008 from 2012 to 200+plus in only 10 years, even with a literal pandemonium happening. While its easy to see that top earners in every position are earning much more nowadays, this trickles down to all levels of free agency, except for rookies. Mediocre players will still demand mediocre payouts, but what is a mediocre payout when 10m is 5% of the cap?

With a limited amount of cash that each team has, it becomes much more important to see the percentage that each player/position demands, rather than the absolute value. 24M/2 for agholor seems like a lot, but what does the market says? Not including how well he was used, for a guy with his production potential, this seems like its the norm, rather than the exception. Just compare his salary to his peers that were signed last year (and this year).

TEs, which have always been underpaid, are now becoming premium pieces and the market shows. 12.5M is not gonna look like much for most of Henry and Smith*'s time here when its less than 5% of the cap for each, and we start seeing guys getting WR-like money, or getting closer to that Kittle salary.

All Im saying is, for us to attract high(ish)-talent, we need to pay according to the market. I think BB realized this last year and ever "bargain shopping" is gonna look more expansive than most years

*unless he keeps sucking hard

I mean, so far Gallup just signed for $12.5M apy and Ertz for $10.5M apy. Ertz is on wrong side of 30 but very productive. Gallup is only 26. Both those guys are better than Agholor and Smith at same cost or cheaper a year later. I guess we'll see how it all pans out.

 

[Sicilian]

I think if the NFL's cap rules were much simpler (say, more like the NHL's where the cap hit is consistent year to year based on the average of the total contract), it would be much simpler to wrap our heads around. I think viewing players/contracts in terms of percentage of the cap is perfect, because it adjusts automatically. But unfortunately, what a player's hit is is not always clear, and how it can be restructured changes a lot of the dynamic as well. But in general I agree, that if we see a player seemingly being "overpaid" we need to take the increasing cap into account before grabbing the pitchforks.

For example, I saw a lot of people complaining about McCourty's $9m. For a veteran safety who played 95% of the defensive snaps, you're not getting a guy like that for less in this market.

 

[Sicilian]

I mean, so far Gallup just signed for $12.5M apy and Ertz for $10.5M apy. Ertz is on wrong side of 30 but very productive. Gallup is only 26. Both those guys are better than Agholor and Smith at same cost or cheaper a year later. I guess we'll see how it all pans out.

I think age is the big factor for Ertz, and Gallup has trended down the last two years, so I think there's question as to how good he is. But I won't try to argue that Smith and Agholor were good signings in hindsight. I'm hopeful that Smith can have a better impact in year two, but to this point you can't say they're anything but an overpay.

 

[PScottman]

I actually think Agholor played well.

I said it before and I'll say it again, circumstantially Agholor suffered the most in regards to "his number being called" than anyone last year. Meaning he's a deep threat, speed guy with a rookie QB (processing/familiarity with the pro game), a horribly inconsistent OL (time to throw deep routes), and a staff whose NUMBER ONE mantra is "dont take excessive risks - protect the ball". Even if he was the #1 read in more plays last year one of those three factors usually played against him even getting the opportunity to contribute and demonstrate his worth.

In the same way with rookies - you tend to REALLY know a free agent's worth in year two. If they immediately continue a poor trend for example or show comfort and familiarity by increasing their output - its usually immediately apparent and you have a bigger sample size for comparison.

Tying that back to this thread, given his contract, and assuming one or two of those circumstance issues (especially Mac's ability to process the pro game at higher speed and being more comfortable outside the pocket/extending plays) is better than last year Agholor likely has better numbers more applicable to the contract - especially when you compare to the huge contracts the OP outlined.

 

[upstater1]

we may have bought low on the TE's and the emerging market there, but we paid full market rates for wr... and only hit on one, Bourne...

I think those are below market rates. Bourne got what David Givens got. 15 years ago. As for Agholor, he's well below some of the contracts signed so far.

 

[jah]

I said it before and I'll say it again, circumstantially Agholor suffered the most in regards to "his number being called" than anyone last year. Meaning he's a deep threat, speed guy with a rookie QB (processing/familiarity with the pro game), a horribly inconsistent OL (time to throw deep routes), and a staff whose NUMBER ONE mantra is "dont take excessive risks - protect the ball". Even if he was the #1 read in more plays last year one of those three factors usually played against him even getting the opportunity to contribute and demonstrate his worth.

In the same way with rookies - you tend to REALLY know a free agent's worth in year two. If they immediately continue a poor trend for example or show comfort and familiarity by increasing their output - its usually immediately apparent and you have a bigger sample size for comparison.

Tying that back to this thread, given his contract, and assuming one or two of those circumstance issues (especially Mac's ability to process the pro game at higher speed and being more comfortable outside the pocket/extending plays) is better than last year Agholor likely has better numbers more applicable to the contract - especially when you compare to the huge contracts the OP outlined.

All of that first paragraph is reasonable, but my question would be why we signed a deep threat for a ton of money knowing the offense would play it safe.