Drake Maye would be the IDEAL pick for the Patriots at #3

[jdlboot14]

At this point, I'd be fine with either Maye or Daniels. Either one will be a risk as all rookie QBs are.
Both are going to have a steep learning curve in the NFL, but the talent (arm & legs) and processing ability is there.

But, the question is - do you think they are better than Mac Jones? Most would say 100%
Even Mac had some very good stretches and plays last year with our "poor talent level team".
Meaning - most of team is back this year (with improved OL, pass catchers), so why couldn't rookie QB succeed at least better than Mac did?

ie: Could Maye or Daniels have won last years 3-6 pt loss games - LVR, WAS, IND, NYG, LAC
Most would say yes. Their talent boost is worth a FG or TD. That alone results in a 9-8 record.

 

[PatsfanTN]

Cannon.

Watched Milton here at UT. Ridiculous cannon for an arm….not accurate at all. At ALL

 

[Love The Drake]

Watched Milton here at UT. Ridiculous cannon for an arm….not accurate at all. At ALL

Agree

 

[Ivan]

Changing thread title to “Ideal AVILABLE pick at 3”

Daniels is ideal pick but will be gone

His pro day yesterday changed my mind. I think he will be a star

I really don’t have any worries about Maye either. He’s got all the tools as well as the athleticism to extend plays and take off running when he has to. People forget that Josh Allen had one of the worst traits you can have has QB prospect, he was horribly inaccurate. Good coaching too care of that, and Maye’s issues pale in comparison. Either way they need to get their future QB in the building this year, because every year you waste pushes everything back another year. And if it takes more tries to find them then better to find out sooner than later. And if you get your QB now then all of your future capital can be used in building everything around them.

 

[KCSVEN]

I signed up for PFF premium just so I could analyze the QB's statistically. I've tried to look back historically and correlate metrics to success. The obvious items like overall rating in certain passing situations translate somewhat. You can get a preponderance of the evidence to get a good % chance of success. When you add in physical scouting and other factors (1 year starter vs 3-4 year starter is a good one) you can do a decent job of breaking down the QB's chance of success.

I struggled with Josh Allen being so bad in advanced stats at Wyoming, and I know he was not very good early in the NFL. I also struggled with the 2021 draft class. Take those 2 things out and I think I could tell you who's a franchise QB and who is not LOL. Sort of.

I realized the 2020 season was covid season, the dropouts, the lack of continuity etc. led to the 2020 stats being inflated for analysis for the most part. The quality of play and depth was subpar it was easy for some players and teams to just go lights out. For example, Zach Wilson, in PFF, was not good in 2019 but lights out in 2020.

With all that I stumbled upon the allowed pressure stats on PFF. I went through years of drafts, also took the top-rated NFL QB's

It breaks down pressures and then breaks it down by the fault. So, for example 20% of the pressures in a year were on the QB, and then they break it down by line position and also has an "other" category to get to 100% total pressures and who gets fault for them as a % of the 100%..

QB's over 20% at fault for pressures seem to have much less success than top QB's in college that were under 20%. Around 15% seems to be a sweet spot.
Only Purdy and Hurts are "franchise" QB's that had over 20%. Of course, Purdy has the NFL's best skill players and Hurts has a career rating of 91 and has had 1 good year with a great Eagles team overall. So, I'm not convinced they are truly top 10 QB's?
Anyway, it does not bode well for Williams, Nix, Maye and Penix. Williams has 30% pressures his fault, just under the all-time leader in Bryce Young (among top prospect anyways).
Yes, I am retired and have too much time on my hands LOL.

 

[Steve102]

I really don’t have any worries about Maye either. He’s got all the tools as well as the athleticism to extend plays and take off running when he has to. People forget that Josh Allen had one of the worst traits you can have has QB prospect, he was horribly inaccurate. Good coaching too care of that, and Maye’s issues pale in comparison. Either way they need to get their future QB in the building this year, because every year you waste pushes everything back another year. And if it takes more tries to find them then better to find out sooner than later. And if you get your QB now then all of your future capital can be used in building everything around them.

I read on twitter (I think) that the Commanders' guys were very pleased with Maye's pro day, whatever that means. It will be interesting to see how the first two picks go. You hate to think they are "settling" for Maye/Daniels, whichever one is available when they pick. I think the only way to be sure to get their guy is to trade to #1. The only way I see that happening is if the Bears are not sold on Williams and trade down to 3 to take the leftovers.

 

[Steve102]

I signed up for PFF premium just so I could analyze the QB's statistically. I've tried to look back historically and correlate metrics to success. The obvious items like overall rating in certain passing situations translate somewhat. You can get a preponderance of the evidence to get a good % chance of success. When you add in physical scouting and other factors (1 year starter vs 3-4 year starter is a good one) you can do a decent job of breaking down the QB's chance of success.

I struggled with Josh Allen being so bad in advanced stats at Wyoming, and I know he was not very good early in the NFL. I also struggled with the 2021 draft class. Take those 2 things out and I think I could tell you who's a franchise QB and who is not LOL. Sort of.

I realized the 2020 season was covid season, the dropouts, the lack of continuity etc. led to the 2020 stats being inflated for analysis for the most part. The quality of play and depth was subpar it was easy for some players and teams to just go lights out. For example, Zach Wilson, in PFF, was not good in 2019 but lights out in 2020.

With all that I stumbled upon the allowed pressure stats on PFF. I went through years of drafts, also took the top-rated NFL QB's

It breaks down pressures and then breaks it down by the fault. So, for example 20% of the pressures in a year were on the QB, and then they break it down by line position and also has an "other" category to get to 100% total pressures and who gets fault for them as a % of the 100%..

QB's over 20% at fault for pressures seem to have much less success than top QB's in college that were under 20%. Around 15% seems to be a sweet spot.
Only Purdy and Hurts are "franchise" QB's that had over 20%. Of course, Purdy has the NFL's best skill players and Hurts has a career rating of 91 and has had 1 good year with a great Eagles team overall. So, I'm not convinced they are truly top 10 QB's?
Anyway, it does not bode well for Williams, Nix, Maye and Penix. Williams has 30% pressures his fault, just under the all-time leader in Bryce Young (among top prospect anyways).
Yes, I am retired and have too much time on my hands LOL.

According to that matrix, they should be taking Joe Milton?

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Mayo said this about Maye, "Drake Maye had a fantastic interview at the combine..."

Good gawd, are we going back to that? Supposedly what sold BB on N'Keal Harry was the great interview he gave.

We may be in one of those situations like the Giants with Tisch and Mara where they muffed one first round pick after another (but hit on later picks) seemingly as if the owners were making the first picks (there were some real lemons there). I get the feeling that Kraft is going to force a pick of a QB at three.

I think the Patriots should trade back and select someone like JJ or Bo Nix. The intensity and dedication to hard work by JJ makes him my top choice (Brady-esque?)

Mac Jones was intense and dedicated to hard work

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Taking Maye at 3 is really risky and could set up the Patriots for an epic failure. This is a great year for OL and WRs (and QBs also). If the Patriots somehow can overrule Bob Kraft and trade back, they would be able to take advantage of this bounty and restock in areas of need.

If the Patriots do not trade back, they will miss out on some bluechip OL and WR picks and take a huge gamble on an untested QB, a QB that could be ruined with no supporting cast. I vote for trading back and taking JJ plus a LT and some WRs.

Note: In the interest of full disclosure, I also have a less than honorable reason for wishing that the Patriots trade back; a trade back will make Thursday night way more fun.

 

[Headcase]

Taking Maye at 3 is really risky and could set up the Patriots for an epic failure. This is a great year for OL and WRs (and QBs also). If the Patriots somehow can overrule Bob Kraft and trade back, they would be able to take advantage of this bounty and restock in areas of need.

If the Patriots do not trade back, they will miss out on some bluechip OL and WR picks and take a huge gamble on an untested QB, a QB that could be ruined with no supporting cast. I vote for trading back and taking JJ plus a LT and some WRs.

Note: In the interest of full disclosure, I also have a less than honorable reason for wishing that the Patriots trade back; a trade back will make Thursday night way more fun.

I feel the same way, except replace Maye with Daniels.

 

[KCSVEN]

According to that matrix, they should be taking Joe Milton?

it is more usable to separate the top ranked QB's than to use it to rank all available QB's.
Milton's other metrics, especially for accuracy, are really bad.
QB's over 20% tend to not just hold the ball longer but end up sacked because of it.
When they get to the NFL and it speeds up more, it can show up in there play.
Young, Wilson Fields, Howell, Pickett, Willis, Levis etc. all have/had the physical talent, but they all, at the NFL level, process slow and hold onto the ball too long, that translated from college to pro in this stat.

Decision making is the #1 quality in a QB, and the hardest thing to rate. This very much helps that analysis.

Very few successful QB's in the NFL that rate poorly in this metrics. However, it is one metric and needs to be combined with the other analysis first and then used as a separator. Anyone over 20% definitely has an added risk they will not process well at the NFL level.
Believe me, I've analyzed every advance stat on QB's, this one was an outlier on how useful it has been historically.

FYI, Mac Jones only had 1 full year, was the 2020 covid year, the fact he was at 17.9% is actually high for the year 2020. Probably equated to over 20% in any other year, Justin Field being 28.6% in that year shows he was going to be a bust as a thrower IMO.

 

[Steve102]

it is more usable to separate the top ranked QB's than to use it to rank all available QB's.
Milton's other metrics, especially for accuracy, are really bad.
QB's over 20% tend to not just hold the ball longer but end up sacked because of it.
When they get to the NFL and it speeds up more, it can show up in there play.
Young, Wilson Fields, Howell, Pickett, Willis, Levis etc. all have/had the physical talent, but they all, at the NFL level, process slow and hold onto the ball too long, that translated from college to pro in this stat.

Decision making is the #1 quality in a QB, and the hardest thing to rate. This very much helps that analysis.

Very few successful QB's in the NFL that rate poorly in this metrics. However, it is one metric and needs to be combined with the other analysis first and then used as a separator. Anyone over 20% definitely has an added risk they will not process well at the NFL level.
Believe me, I've analyzed every advance stat on QB's, this one was an outlier on how useful it has been historically.

thanks for the deeper dive.

 

[Jim Beankie]

If you read aussie‘s link from lazar maye hit the walker on a 65 yard bomb and hit 60 yarders on off platform throws
His coaching were blitzing him and made things harder for him, harder than other qbs had their pro day from what I can tell watching these pro days
He hit several deep throws on the run to left and right
Actually his pro day made me feel better about him

That throw in reference (assuming 7:40) was 62 air yds. Another Tez bomb in there (6:45) was barely 60yds - similar to the ~61yds in 7:15. To the naked eye, they all look like 65yds easy. Off platform did look good - the 57 air yard one to Tez was especially nice.

Surprised the coaches didn't whip out the brooms like for Manziel's pro day.

 

[Water Boy]

You only do that if you’re absolutely certain Ari and LA are staying put and taking WRs.

I think you can’t be cute you take your QB at 3.

Harbaugh was quoted on the importance of O-line. If that's the direction they are going, they'd be wise to take a slight trade back opening pick 5 up to a QB needy team.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

Maye is the guy I want, with JJ being a close second. Daniels I have soured on because 1. His frame scares me, and 2. His weapons were just otherworldy.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I signed up for PFF premium just so I could analyze the QB's statistically. I've tried to look back historically and correlate metrics to success. The obvious items like overall rating in certain passing situations translate somewhat. You can get a preponderance of the evidence to get a good % chance of success. When you add in physical scouting and other factors (1 year starter vs 3-4 year starter is a good one) you can do a decent job of breaking down the QB's chance of success.

I struggled with Josh Allen being so bad in advanced stats at Wyoming, and I know he was not very good early in the NFL. I also struggled with the 2021 draft class. Take those 2 things out and I think I could tell you who's a franchise QB and who is not LOL. Sort of.

I realized the 2020 season was covid season, the dropouts, the lack of continuity etc. led to the 2020 stats being inflated for analysis for the most part. The quality of play and depth was subpar it was easy for some players and teams to just go lights out. For example, Zach Wilson, in PFF, was not good in 2019 but lights out in 2020.

With all that I stumbled upon the allowed pressure stats on PFF. I went through years of drafts, also took the top-rated NFL QB's

It breaks down pressures and then breaks it down by the fault. So, for example 20% of the pressures in a year were on the QB, and then they break it down by line position and also has an "other" category to get to 100% total pressures and who gets fault for them as a % of the 100%..

QB's over 20% at fault for pressures seem to have much less success than top QB's in college that were under 20%. Around 15% seems to be a sweet spot.
Only Purdy and Hurts are "franchise" QB's that had over 20%. Of course, Purdy has the NFL's best skill players and Hurts has a career rating of 91 and has had 1 good year with a great Eagles team overall. So, I'm not convinced they are truly top 10 QB's?
Anyway, it does not bode well for Williams, Nix, Maye and Penix. Williams has 30% pressures his fault, just under the all-time leader in Bryce Young (among top prospect anyways).
Yes, I am retired and have too much time on my hands LOL.

Thanks for that. Really cool stuff, even though blaming fault can be fairly subjective. Will be interesting to see how they all end up faring.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Kurt Warner is very lukewarm on Maye. Said he misses too many layups and has long windup.did not list him as top 3. Likes Penix much better.
Very high on Williams and especially Daniels

 

[Love The Drake]

Kurt Warner is very lukewarm on Maye. Said he misses too many layups and has long windup.did not list him as top 3. Likes Penix much better.
Very high on Williams and especially Daniels

what he say about JJ and Bo?

 

[Jim Beankie]

According to that matrix, they should be taking Joe Milton?

Watching JMilton in different interviews, he just strikes me as a really laid back dude. Even a post game after a great loss he didn't seem that pissed or sad. That particular instance, it turned me off that he didn't seem to take it that seriously, but I wonder if it's because he doesn't feel as much pressure (the quintessential "Joe Cool") and has an "On to Baltimore" mindset.

Guessing you're kidding, and I haven't really watched any tape on the guy except I know he for real has ICBMs, but I wonder if I should start watching.

 

[Ivan]

I read on twitter (I think) that the Commanders' guys were very pleased with Maye's pro day, whatever that means. It will be interesting to see how the first two picks go. You hate to think they are "settling" for Maye/Daniels, whichever one is available when they pick. I think the only way to be sure to get their guy is to trade to #1. The only way I see that happening is if the Bears are not sold on Williams and trade down to 3 to take the leftovers.

I like all 3 of them, so I’m hoping they stay at 3 and take the QB, and for those concerned about the odds of getting a franchise QB I would say that makes it even more important to go QB, because you aren’t going anywhere good until you do get them. So if you see the talent there keep going for it until you hit it.